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  #5801  
Old 21.04.2022, 22:26
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Guys and Ladies, criticize away, but I have a feeling that this is going south - fast

Foreign Ministry says it has the right to consider NATO military cargoes in Ukraine as its targets. The Russian Armed Forces may consider US and NATO arms cargoes in Ukraine as their military targets, Deputy Director of the Department of North America of the Russian Foreign Ministry Sergei Koshelev said, RIA Novosti reported.
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They have been saying this for weeks.
Correct and have so far failed to hit such a delivery.

Please do not fall for this stupid bluff.

The Russians have no way to identify US and NATO arms cargoes in Ukraine and even if they did then the accuracy of their weapons is abysmal.

The Americans can send a smart bomb through the window of a target building, the Russians call it a success if they get within some hundreds of meters.

It will be interesting to see if Ukraine benefits from the new US howitzers being delivered that are claimed with electronic guidance to be able to land their shells within a couple of meters of targets that are 30 KM away.
If they can successfully target and destroy Russian artillery bombarding Ukrainian cities then the scene will change.
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  #5802  
Old 21.04.2022, 22:38
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Let's fire up the (English speaking) Russian propaganda Movies!

Enemy at the Gates

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0215750/

Lord of War

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0399295/
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  #5803  
Old 21.04.2022, 23:13
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

The US keep turning up the heat gradually. Another $800mln in aid have been announced earlier today (3.3bln military aid in total so far, authorisation by congress is necessary for more), including tactical drones (dubbed "Phoenix Ghost") and "dozens more" howitzers along with 144k shells.

Just for perspective's sake:
The recently announced 40k shells for 18 howitzers are expected to last a little more than one week. So today's announcement will probably last only something like 2 additional weeks as it will need to supply the first 18, too.

Meanwhile, Slovakia is delivering top notch Russian S300 anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine. Germany is suggesting to supply Slovakia with heavy armor so that Slovakia can gift older stuff of Russian origin (thus immediately usable by Ukraine as there's little to zero need for training) to Ukraine.

In other news it is said that Ukraine now has "more than 20" additional MiG-29 they were able to repair with pieces and parts delivered by the west including the US. I wonder what role Poland's ~28 Mig-29 play in that, planes they couldn't gift too soon in early March (two or three other more countries were willing to do the same, I forgot which). Plausible deniability might be met if some were of Polish origin while others are indeed repaired (what does that mean anyway, does a Ukrainian empennage or jet engine with the rest coming from Polish jets make a repaired Ukrainian jet?).
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Old 21.04.2022, 23:20
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Let's fire up the (English speaking) Russian propaganda Movies!

Enemy at the Gates

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0215750/

Lord of War

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0399295/
They are the opposite of propaganda. It is exactly what the West would want one believe. (And please do not kick my imaginary pro-Putin balls - such do not exist)
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Old 21.04.2022, 23:22
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The US keep turning up the heat gradually. Another $800mln in aid have been announced earlier today (3.3bln military aid in total so far, authorisation by congress is necessary for more), including tactical drones (dubbed "Phoenix Ghost") and "dozens more" howitzers along with 144k shells.

Just for perspective's sake:
The recently announced 40k shells for 18 howitzers are expected to last a little more than one week. So today's announcement will probably last only something like 2 additional weeks.

Meanwhile, Slovakia is delivering top notch Russian S300 anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine. Germany is suggesting to Slovakia with heavy armor so that Slovakia can gift older stuff of Russian origin (thus immediately usable by Ukraine as there's no need for training).

In other news it is said that Ukraine now has "more than 20" additional MiG-29 they were able to repair with pieces and parts delivered by the west including the US. I wonder what role Poland's ~28 Mig-29 play in that, planes they couldn't gift too soon in early March. Plausible deniability might be met if some were of Polish origin while others are indeed repaired (what does that mean anyway, does a Ukrainin empennage or jet engine with the rest coming from Polish jets make a repaired Ukrainian jet?).
Reminds me of a former acquaintance who restored extremely valuable antique clocks.

He used to say the minimum he needed to make the "restoration" was someone imitating the clock chime. He was so well known in the worldwide antique clock trade that he worked under a pseudonym in a Swiss cellar.
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Old 21.04.2022, 23:37
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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It will be interesting to see if Ukraine benefits from the new US howitzers being delivered that are claimed with electronic guidance to be able to land their shells within a couple of meters of targets that are 30 KM away.
If they can successfully target and destroy Russian artillery bombarding Ukrainian cities then the scene will change.
Hightech artillery is prohibitively expensive.

GPS guided shells with extended reach (25-40km, further reach still in development) cost 6 figures in USD, something like up to 150k per shell. Laser guided shells appear to cost in the $10k region. At least the latter requires significant infrastructure and thereby training, both need special guns as the conventional ones can't fire them, both of which results in additional costs. Ordinary shells on the other hand cost the US a low 3-digit amount, like $3-400 (presumably with simple steel hulls and on-impact-ignitors, i.e. probably no shrapnel).

And that doesn't even take production capacity into account. In a reply to a parlamentary enquiry in 2016, the Federal Council said that production capacity for laser guided systems and shells are limited to an extent that CH, not an ally of a producing country, wouldn't be able to get such systems for many years. Shells would cost in the order of 10k each.

Like many other systems, the more hightech the more training will be necessary. Time and money are two things the Ukraine doesn't have.

Ukraine doesn't even need hightech artillery, that's what they got drones for. Drones are cheap, have excellent precision, and are probably far more detrimental psychologically because they can hit anywhere anytime whereas artillery is limited by the position of the gun.

Last edited by Urs Max; 21.04.2022 at 23:58.
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Old 22.04.2022, 00:15
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Honest question for the topic or English forum in general.

How many that comment here regualrly or have deep opinons on such a topic, have ever been shot by a gun?

Lost your home in a war?

Had to give up everything, be at the mercy of a foreign goverment taking you in and administratively telling you what to do?
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Old 22.04.2022, 00:32
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Honest question for the topic or English forum in general.

How many that comment here regualrly or have deep opinons on such a topic, have ever been shot by a gun?

Lost your home in a war?

Had to give up everything, be at the mercy of a foreign goverment taking you in and administratively telling you what to do?
I wold say that most here havn´t... yet!
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Old 22.04.2022, 00:35
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Honest question for the topic or English forum in general.

How many that comment here regualrly or have deep opinons on such a topic, have ever been shot by a gun?

Lost your home in a war?

Had to give up everything, be at the mercy of a foreign goverment taking you in and administratively telling you what to do?
I wouldn't dismiss the possibility that some of those who have strong pro-Putin opinions are actually coming from such a background.
It is quite visible that some people who enjoy the liberties and comfort of the West are armchair Putinistas now, so why would you think it would be impossible they actually enjoyed the West's generosity and now are pro-Putin, ignoring the plight of Ukrainians?
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Old 22.04.2022, 01:10
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I wouldn't dismiss the possibility that some of those who have strong pro-Putin opinions are actually coming from such a background.
It is quite visible that some people who enjoy the liberties and comfort of the West are armchair Putinistas now, so why would you think it would be impossible they actually enjoyed the West's generosity and now are pro-Putin, ignoring the plight of Ukrainians?
For deity´s sake Greenmount, how can you be so nonchalant about what is going on here? We are standing literally on the brink, one small miscalculation and our civilization will collapse, if the road is not already set in stone.
This is no longer about Putin or Ukraine or a west vrs. east deathmatch.
One small miscalculation and there will be no west or east, no computers to bitch on a forum with, your money will be worthless, no food, medicine and just wait for the toothache to hit.
The pandemic, and climate change has shown us how vulnerable our society in actual fact is. We have been warned about just how vulnerable it is for decades and we did nothing. Now, how long do you think the population will stay calm when the overspill of a war in the heart of Europe causes food to be unaffordable, and energy to be scarce and rationed.
Think I´m crazy. Just got back from the UK and the media is trying to put spin on a fear of energy rationing by autumn. Germany is just now preparing for the Russian gas tap to be turned off.
They are getting ready for worse to come.
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Old 22.04.2022, 02:03
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Reminds me of a former acquaintance who restored extremely valuable antique clocks.

He used to say the minimum he needed to make the "restoration" was someone imitating the clock chime. He was so well known in the worldwide antique clock trade that he worked under a pseudonym in a Swiss cellar.
Is this some qoute from a movie or some past time where 1/2 the planet's population will not even have a clue as to what you are saying?

Some unspoken/secret European educational lesson in there?

Got an old Rolex (antique clock) too buddy, it's not exteremly valuable, not to me, as the first person that did not buy it and wear it for a lifetime.
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Old 22.04.2022, 06:45
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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They are the opposite of propaganda. It is exactly what the West would want one believe. (And please do not kick my imaginary pro-Putin balls - such do not exist)
They're Hollywood films. More concerned with selling to the American public a story they'll like than historical truth.

See also: U-571, Saving Private Ryan...

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For deity´s sake Greenmount, how can you be so nonchalant about what is going on here? We are standing literally on the brink, one small miscalculation and our civilization will collapse, ...
Not all of us believe that. It enables nonchalance.
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Old 22.04.2022, 08:14
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Reminds me of a former acquaintance who restored extremely valuable antique clocks.

He used to say the minimum he needed to make the "restoration" was someone imitating the clock chime. He was so well known in the worldwide antique clock trade that he worked under a pseudonym in a Swiss cellar.
I know this was off topic but a fantastic post. Thanks.
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Old 22.04.2022, 08:22
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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For deity´s sake Greenmount, how can you be so nonchalant about what is going on here? We are standing literally on the brink, one small miscalculation and our civilization will collapse, if the road is not already set in stone.
This is no longer about Putin or Ukraine or a west vrs. east deathmatch.
One small miscalculation and there will be no west or east, no computers to bitch on a forum with, your money will be worthless, no food, medicine and just wait for the toothache to hit.
The pandemic, and climate change has shown us how vulnerable our society in actual fact is. We have been warned about just how vulnerable it is for decades and we did nothing. Now, how long do you think the population will stay calm when the overspill of a war in the heart of Europe causes food to be unaffordable, and energy to be scarce and rationed.
Think I´m crazy. Just got back from the UK and the media is trying to put spin on a fear of energy rationing by autumn. Germany is just now preparing for the Russian gas tap to be turned off.
They are getting ready for worse to come.
Nonchalant, really?? Now that's a stupid word you used there and totally inappropriate in the context.
How could you possibly know what will happen in the next month or two? Or how this war will go on? Nobody believed Ukraine will last 3 days, let alone 3 months and yet here we are, they keep fighting.
How could you be so nonchalant (let's put it that way, I'm trying to be kinder here) about letting Putin win and take whatever he wants? And then believe we're going back to normal? Do you think your grandchildren will be safe then? This is not about the West getting peace, safety and prosperity at the expense of the East, as usual. You are easily manipulable if you believe that. If this demented redneck dwarf gets whatever he wants now we'll have bigger problems that you can possibly imagine because all his admirers we'll believe it's OK to do that and if you believe we'll have hunger and instability after these months just wait and see the wars and conflicts that will follow suit. That civilisation you yearn for will be long gone as no country is an island and you'll have a new world order where tyrannosauruses like Putin will make the law. Enjoy.

Last edited by greenmount; 22.04.2022 at 08:53.
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Old 22.04.2022, 08:50
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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For deity´s sake Greenmount, how can you be so nonchalant about what is going on here? We are standing literally on the brink, one small miscalculation and our civilization will collapse, if the road is not already set in stone.
This is no longer about Putin or Ukraine or a west vrs. east deathmatch.
One small miscalculation and there will be no west or east, no computers to bitch on a forum with, your money will be worthless, no food, medicine and just wait for the toothache to hit.
The pandemic, and climate change has shown us how vulnerable our society in actual fact is. We have been warned about just how vulnerable it is for decades and we did nothing. Now, how long do you think the population will stay calm when the overspill of a war in the heart of Europe causes food to be unaffordable, and energy to be scarce and rationed.
Think I´m crazy. Just got back from the UK and the media is trying to put spin on a fear of energy rationing by autumn. Germany is just now preparing for the Russian gas tap to be turned off.
They are getting ready for worse to come.
Just answer this one question please:
Do you believe, that when Putin will get what he wants from Ukraine, all will return "back to normal"?
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Old 22.04.2022, 09:22
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Just answer this one question please:
Do you believe, that when Putin will get what he wants from Ukraine, all will return "back to normal"?
Obviously he believes it's business as usual with Russia. Post WWII trades.
Then we can all go back to buying oil, gas and letting their rich buy expensive properties, state companies and generally just continue their influence in economy, society etc from a position of force and terror as before because they'll never be able to exercise a mutually beneficial "soft power". It's not part of KGB's manual. "A multipolar world" Putin or Xi style. Slammer will be safe and able to spend his money as the shops will be fully stocked.
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Old 22.04.2022, 09:47
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Just answer this one question please:
Do you believe, that when Putin will get what he wants from Ukraine, all will return "back to normal"?
You are assuming to know what Putin wants, what his endgame is. I don´t buy into the western narrative that Putin is a drooling, crazed maniacal whackjob with sexual dreams of a neo-Soviet state.
The idea that everything will get back to normal is absurd and I believe that the world that we once knew has ended, this new world will be tripartite one of influence, war, famine, climate change and the end of cheap energy.
I also believe that America sees Russia as an enemy and wants the country to be off the world stage as a competitor and will do everything possible to achieve that goal, even if it means knife edge brinkmanship over Ukraine.


Having said that, we will settle into this new normal in the same way we have always done.
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Old 22.04.2022, 10:33
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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You are assuming to know what Putin wants, what his endgame is. I don´t buy into the western narrative that Putin is a drooling, crazed maniacal whackjob with sexual dreams of a neo-Soviet state.
The idea that everything will get back to normal is absurd and I believe that the world that we once knew has ended, this new world will be tripartite one of influence, war, famine, climate change and the end of cheap energy.
I also believe that America sees Russia as an enemy and wants the country to be off the world stage as a competitor and will do everything possible to achieve that goal, even if it means knife edge brinkmanship over Ukraine.


Having said that, we will settle into this new normal in the same way we have always done.
Please let me tell you myself what I'm "assuming".
The "western narrative", as you are calling it, is people expecting two things:
1. Freedom in your life to speak about and choose from everything that is not harming other human being.
2. Being not extremely robbed by your government (corruption is everywhere, but it's about the scale), so you can live honest(no cheating, no working an angle) and decent life.

Now, you can talk about what I don't know (what Putin wants, what he thinks), but it is not that important. Deeds are important.
What I do know is that Russia doesn't fullfill these two above points. Because its government doesn't want to fullfill them.
And every sane citizen would like his or her country to fullfill these points.
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Old 22.04.2022, 10:34
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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You are assuming to know what Putin wants, what his endgame is. I don´t buy into the western narrative that Putin is a drooling, crazed maniacal whackjob with sexual dreams of a neo-Soviet state.
.
Slammer...were you also a corona denialist by any chance?
You don't believe even what you see? It's all part of "the Western narrative"? Hilarious. It's strikingly similar to the Russian propaganda.

I take it you never had the displeasure of reading and hearing Putin's court ideologists and advisers. They had said it out loud, over and over again, long before this war in Ukraine. The West was too busy to make deals with team instead of actually listening to what they want, how they feel that the fall of USSR was the greatest tragedy of the last century. The same USSR that killed tens of millions of people including Russians. Now how cynical could that be.

You really have to make up your mind, seriously. A few posts ago you felt terrified of being on the verge of the end of civilisation, precisely because of a manic personality who wouldn't stop anywhere, I assumed. ( I'm not sure anymore who do you think it's the aggressor and the danger here.) Now you claim this character is actually a reasonable one, just give him what he wants, after all he doesn't want much, just Ukraine for the moment....

Yes, he's "a maniacal whackjob" if you judge by what's happening in Ukraine, the atrocities committed against civilians are approved on a higher level, in Kremlin. He said he doesn't believe Ukrainian nation exists, do you need more proofs here?
He has repeatedly made jokes about rape, with Merkel and Macron, he warned us all and we still continued to let them do their business as usual. When someone tells you who they are you better believe them.
He is described in no flattering and no uncertain terms by Russian dissidents and intellectuals and you still don't believe. Maybe you should switch the media channels you follow...I'm done here.

Last edited by greenmount; 22.04.2022 at 10:47.
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Old 22.04.2022, 10:42
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Just answer this one question please:
Do you believe, that when Putin will get what he wants from Ukraine, all will return "back to normal"?
I don’t think Putin will ever get all he wants. Even if he conquers the Russian speaking areas of Ukraine he will want to destroy the rest of Ukraine. And even if he does that there are the Russian speaking areas of Georgia and Moldova.

Don’t forget Latvia and Estonia both with large Russian communities. Then Azerbaijan and Armenia. Germany has 3 million Russian speakers.

I seriously hope he is deposed and sent to the salt mines of Tajikistan (2 million Russian speakers)
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