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  #5821  
Old 22.04.2022, 10:43
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The idea that everything will get back to normal is absurd and I believe that the world that we once knew has ended, this new world will be tripartite one of influence, war, famine, climate change and the end of cheap energy.
Cheap energy? As in "cheap gas and oil"?
Climate change? As in "caused by burning gas and oil"?
I'm afraid you cannot have both
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  #5822  
Old 22.04.2022, 10:44
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Honest question for the topic or English forum in general.

How many that comment here regualrly or have deep opinons on such a topic, have ever been shot by a gun?

Lost your home in a war?

Had to give up everything, be at the mercy of a foreign goverment taking you in and administratively telling you what to do?
My in laws, yes. I am lucky to never have experienced this.
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  #5823  
Old 22.04.2022, 10:49
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I don´t buy into the western narrative that Putin is a drooling, crazed maniacal whackjob with sexual dreams of a neo-Soviet state.
Just to add to that.
Yes, it is possbile, that Putin and his cronies don't believe that stuff about imperial ambitions and so on...

But they need to sell that sh** to Russia's citizens in order to keep calmly stealing sh**loads of money and remain in power.
They need to maintain status quo by propaganda and promises about coming back to "Great Russia times" and saying that NATO is dangerous for Russia.

Constant fear and constant promises about bright future. NATO is the stick, promises about bigger Russia - the carrot. Perfect mixture.

Please tell me where I'm wrong here. Are they not stealing? Or are they not promising bigger and greater Russia? I'm really curious how you process that and make it coherent.

https://www.infobae.com/en/2022/04/0...o-vladivostok/

Last edited by Excad; 22.04.2022 at 11:08.
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  #5824  
Old 22.04.2022, 10:52
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Not all of us believe that. It enables nonchalance.
same as for covid and climate change. people will ignore it until they are on a ventilator begging for (the now too late) vaccines. i guess climate change they can probably ignore as the timelines are too far away and impacts not easily attributable.
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  #5825  
Old 22.04.2022, 10:55
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I don’t think Putin will ever get all he wants. Even if he conquers the Russian speaking areas of Ukraine he will want to destroy the rest of Ukraine. And even if he does that there are the Russian speaking areas of Georgia and Moldova.

Don’t forget Latvia and Estonia both with large Russian communities. Then Azerbaijan and Armenia. Germany has 3 million Russian speakers.

I seriously hope he is deposed and sent to the salt mines of Tajikistan (2 million Russian speakers)
The thing is - he doesn't need to get everything.
He just needs to show that he is realizing some promises about making Russia bigger/greater in order to keep his power.
It's not about the goal or end of that process, it's about process itself.
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  #5826  
Old 22.04.2022, 11:27
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Macron in 2019:
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“La Russie est européenne, très profondément, et nous croyons à cette Europe qui va de Lisbonne à Vladivostok.”
https://www.courrierinternational.co...tente-cordiale
He even twitted it:
https://twitter.com/emmanuelmacron/s...72183752462336

There is a marked progress in its realisation:
This is what Russia's "liberation" of Mariupol looks like (Pictures via Ramzan Kadyrov)

Macron is a very intelligent person, no doubt, so these statements cannot be taken at a face value, of course. Why does France so badly court Russia? Is it about (spheres of) influence in Middle East and Françafrique?

Last edited by Buenzli; 22.04.2022 at 11:40.
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  #5827  
Old 22.04.2022, 11:32
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Meanwhile in Germany, as reported by the public Bayern radio:
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Germany has apparently not delivered any weapons worth mentioning to Ukraine since three weeks
BR24: Deutschland liefert offenbar schon länger keine nennenswerten Waffen mehr
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  #5828  
Old 22.04.2022, 12:00
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Just to add to that.
Yes, it is possbile, that Putin and his cronies don't believe that stuff about imperial ambitions and so on...

But they need to sell that sh** to Russia's citizens in order to keep calmly stealing sh**loads of money and remain in power.
They need to maintain status quo by propaganda and promises about coming back to "Great Russia times" and saying that NATO is dangerous for Russia.

Constant fear and constant promises about bright future. NATO is the stick, promises about bigger Russia - the carrot. Perfect mixture.

Please tell me where I'm wrong here. Are they not stealing? Or are they not promising bigger and greater Russia? I'm really curious how you process that and make it coherent.

https://www.infobae.com/en/2022/04/0...o-vladivostok/
Putin's goal is to achieve greater Russia, sorry, "Eurasia" from Lisbon to Vladivostok, by killing Ukrainian national identity, among others. Quite revealing for their plans. Suppose they want a different type of USSR, they do not want an Eurasia of nations, they want a Russian Eurasia. Prepare for learning Russian and for your kids to study in Russian, folks. "Slammer" (it could be anyone here, not particularly him) still doesn't believe. He thinks he'll be safe in UK and have cheap flights and goods as before.

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In a lengthy message on Telegram, Medvedev reiterated that Russia's mission in Ukraine is to “demilitarize and denazify” the country, tasks that “are not carried out overnight” and that “will not only be solved on the battlefield.” As he explained, it is necessary to change “the bloody consciousness full of false myths” of part of Ukrainians. And he closed with a much broader plan, with imperialist overtones: “The goal is peace for future generations of Ukrainians and the possibility of finally building an open Eurasia, from Lisbon to Vladivostok”.

Last edited by greenmount; 22.04.2022 at 12:12.
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  #5829  
Old 22.04.2022, 12:06
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Meanwhile in Germany, as reported by the public Bayern radio:

BR24: Deutschland liefert offenbar schon länger keine nennenswerten Waffen mehr
Good, that means that they are sticking to the anti-military stance implemented by the allies after the second world war while trying to find ways to assist. I don´t get why the rest of nato is ok with Germany flinging weapons around and spending billions on new military hardware. Perhaps Germany should take notes, you know, for reference so that there is no misunderstanding in the future.

Another question I have is with Germany getting 60% of it´s gas supply from Russia, could Russia turning the gas tap off be seen as an attack on critical infrastructure to a nato country and trigger article 5?
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  #5830  
Old 22.04.2022, 12:23
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Good, that means that they are sticking to the anti-military stance implemented by the allies after the second world war while trying to find ways to assist. I don´t get why the rest of nato is ok with Germany flinging weapons around and spending billions on new military hardware. Perhaps Germany should take notes, you know, for reference so that there is no misunderstanding in the future.

Another question I have is with Germany getting 60% of it´s gas supply from Russia, could Russia turning the gas tap off be seen as an attack on critical infrastructure to a nato country and trigger article 5?
Article 5 can only be triggered by an "armed attack". You can read it up, the treaty is in the open domain.

I rather not comment on the rest.
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  #5831  
Old 22.04.2022, 12:40
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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You are assuming to know what Putin wants, what his endgame is.
But you are assuming that as well.
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I don´t buy into the western narrative that Putin is a drooling, crazed maniacal whackjob with sexual dreams of a neo-Soviet state.
I don't buy into Russian narrative that this is the Western narrative.

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The idea that everything will get back to normal is absurd ...

Having said that, we will settle into this new normal in the same way we have always done.
That's probably the case. Things change, we adapt.
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  #5832  
Old 22.04.2022, 12:41
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Article 5 can only be triggered by an "armed attack". You can read it up, the treaty is in the open domain.

I rather not comment on the rest.
Seems to be a bit fuzzy in the definition of attack, I did read up by the way. Now bare with me, a cyberattack on a nato country could be seen as an attack for instance and trigger article 5, so why not an attack on a nato members energy supply?

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When a NATO official told Reuters that a cyberattack could be considered an armed attack and trigger "Article 5," it was a significant moment. How significant is harder to judge.
NATO has long since agreed cyberattacks could trigger Article 5, and that itself was a major decision and something of a deterrent to hostile actors. But the reality of having to act on it is now closer than ever before.

By Mark Laity, senior director at the StratCom Academy and former head of NATO's military SHAPE Communications Division.
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  #5833  
Old 22.04.2022, 12:46
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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For deity´s sake Greenmount, how can you be so nonchalant about what is going on here? We are standing literally on the brink, one small miscalculation and our civilization will collapse, if the road is not already set in stone.
Nothing new, it has always been like this. It social systems lasted forever we'd be writing on Latin forum

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This is no longer about Putin or Ukraine or a west vrs. east deathmatch.
One small miscalculation and there will be no west or east, no computers to bitch on a forum with, your money will be worthless, no food, medicine and just wait for the toothache to hit.
The pandemic, and climate change has shown us how vulnerable our society in actual fact is. We have been warned about just how vulnerable it is for decades and we did nothing. Now, how long do you think the population will stay calm when the overspill of a war in the heart of Europe causes food to be unaffordable, and energy to be scarce and rationed.
Yes, society is fragile and individuals are even more fragile. But, depression and anxiety are useless. About energy, just be ready to park the car and go anywhere using public transport. It's boring and tiresome but it's not the end.

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Think I´m crazy. Just got back from the UK and the media is trying to put spin on a fear of energy rationing by autumn. Germany is just now preparing for the Russian gas tap to be turned off.
They are getting ready for worse to come.
Fortunately, we're humans with feet and not trees with roots. Hey, this is an expat/immigrant forum, some people with experience living on 3, 4, 5 different countries. One more change? Tiresome but possible.
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  #5834  
Old 22.04.2022, 12:57
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Fortunately, we're humans with feet and not trees with roots. Hey, this is an expat/immigrant forum, some people with experience living on 3, 4, 5 different countries. One more change? Tiresome but possible.
True, this applies for you and me and I think that most on this forum are flexible and intelligent enough to adapt to any sudden change. But we are not the majority and I very much doubt that Hans and Lisel will be able to do the same.
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  #5835  
Old 22.04.2022, 13:07
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Nothing new, it has always been like this. It social systems lasted forever we'd be writing on Latin forum
.
I personally don't get how someone can be so scared of an imminent change, acknowledge the change is happening as we speak, and in the same time believe they can somehow avoid or at least postpone the change.
But if you try to understand slammer, who nonchalantly talks about giving Ukraine and Moldova (that we don't have, last time I checked they weren't on my inventory list so I can freely dispose of them, don't know about slammer) to the dogs or even worse, please feel free to translate to me. I gave up.
*or Greek, btw.
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  #5836  
Old 22.04.2022, 13:20
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Seems to be a bit fuzzy in the definition of attack, I did read up by the way. Now bare with me, a cyberattack on a nato country could be seen as an attack for instance and trigger article 5, so why not an attack on a nato members energy supply?
Is the word "armed" so difficult to understand? And in any event, as the text says, there can be varying degrees of response, and not all members have to act in the same way.

If you think Article 5 is fuzzy, so be it. It has never been properly tested. But I firmly believe it is much more credible now than it was a year ago.
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  #5837  
Old 22.04.2022, 13:32
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Is the word "armed" so difficult to understand? And in any event, as the text says, there can be varying degrees of response, and not all members have to act in the same way.

If you think Article 5 is fuzzy, so be it. It has never been properly tested. But I firmly believe it is much more credible now than it was a year ago.
"armed?" Weapons these days don´t have to be bullets and bombs, weaponizing the energy supply and deploying cyber weapons are just as disruptive as boots on the ground.
I suppose it´s in the definition of what counts as an armed attack and I hope it is never put to the test.
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  #5838  
Old 22.04.2022, 13:36
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Back to the war, it's quite interesting to see how dangerous is Spain for Russian people of interest. Add all the unsolved deaths of Russians in the UK over the years. Power struggle to say the least. Putin talked about all the traitors with their hearts in Miami, but maybe he said Miami because Cataluña is harder to pronounce.

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2 Russian oligarchs were found dead one day apart alongside their wives and children, reports say
https://www.businessinsider.com/2-ru...22-4?r=US&IR=T
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  #5839  
Old 22.04.2022, 13:41
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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But you are assuming that as well.
I don't buy into Russian narrative that this is the Western narrative.

That's probably the case. Things change, we adapt.
We had an iron curtain before, I think there will be another one and sooner than we think...Putin has lost the war as soon as he started it. Even if he'll capture the Eastern parts of Ukraine and Mariupol, he'll have to explain the Russians why did he do all of these when the living standards will sink even lower and people will queue for Western products as they used to during communism.
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  #5840  
Old 22.04.2022, 13:46
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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We had an iron curtain before, I think there will be another one and sooner than we think...
This is the interesting part. Where will the new line will be? Or will it be a stripe?

Also, if I were a dictator that relied on Putin's support for survival I'd start packing.
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