World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? - Page 303

marton · #**6041** 27.04.2022, 20:52

This war is like a civil war where people in both countries do not necessarily support the country they live in.

If I was Putin I would be concerned about the ca. 2 million Ukrainians living in Russia some of whom may well be hearing heartbreaking stories from their relatives on the front line and so feel inspired to act.

"Igor Volobuev, vice president of Gazprombank, one of Russia’s largest private banks and part of the Gazprom holding, quit his post and left Russia in dissent over the war in Ukraine and is planning to join the Kyiv territorial defense."

He has also claimed his former colleague, Vladislav Avayev, who was found dead alongside his family in an apparent murder-suicide was assassinated.

vushka · #**6042** 27.04.2022, 21:41

	Quote:	Axa
	Somehow, no mention of Ukraine Nazis invading Russia or gathering near the Russian border.

actually the opposite has been going on for a few years now. many of the russian nazis already gathered to fight with ukraine.

https://violence-marker.org.ua/en/20...up-in-ukraine/

Urs Max · #**6043** 27.04.2022, 22:23

	Quote:	Axa
	If I understand well, Austrian Chancellor is head of the government. If head of government tells something to the media and local oil company executive says other thing, it's great confusion. So far, it looks like only news media getting their news from Russia tells the story. It seems headlines were used to influence gas trading/pricing. Hopefully, there's no automated trading for gas in Europe these days. Literally asking for it.

I think it's ambiguous unless there's an official order, like an import ban.

The problem is that you don't even need to be biased to publish shaky stuff. Things are so much in flux it can be enough to be a few hours behind in order to miss something relevant.

marton · #**6044** 27.04.2022, 22:27

	Quote:	vushka
	actually the opposite has been going on for a few years now. many of the russian nazis already gathered to fight with ukraine. https://violence-marker.org.ua/en/20...up-in-ukraine/

Many?

From your link "According to the Sova Think Tank, about 100 far-right activists from Russia are currently in Ukraine."

100! Many?

How relevant are the events of 2014 to today?

Urs Max · #**6045** 27.04.2022, 22:50

	Quote:	marton
	If I was Putin I would be concerned about the ca. 2 million Ukrainians living in Russia some of whom may well be hearing heartbreaking stories from their relatives on the front line and so feel inspired to act.

A couple days ago Ukraine attacked military targets in Bryansk, a Russian city some 300km straight NE from Chernihiv and just 100km from the border.

Bryansk appears to be a major transport hub, both in a logistical sense but also in relation to the Druzhba oil (some say also gas) pipeline network. According to Wiki it's 4500km long and brings 20% of Russia's oil exports from Siberia to central and western Europe, with Germany being the biggest destination.

Well, the attack was reportedly successul. But it also hit the pipeline, it appears to be fully interrupted for the time being. This is a bit surprising as Ukraine so far has been operating with excellent precision (going by what's reported). Perhaps they actually hit the pipeline, but then again maybe some Ukrainians living in Russia with an axe to grind took good advantage of the ensuing chaos.

NotAllThere · #**6046** 28.04.2022, 08:21

Maybe it's a false flag operation.

slammer · #**6047** 28.04.2022, 08:38

	Quote:	marton
	This war is like a civil war where people in both countries do not necessarily support the country they live in. If I was Putin I would be concerned about the ca. 2 million Ukrainians living in Russia some of whom may well be hearing heartbreaking stories from their relatives on the front line and so feel inspired to act. "Igor Volobuev, vice president of Gazprombank, one of Russia’s largest private banks and part of the Gazprom holding, quit his post and left Russia in dissent over the war in Ukraine and is planning to join the Kyiv territorial defense." He has also claimed his former colleague, Vladislav Avayev, who was found dead alongside his family in an apparent murder-suicide was assassinated.

This is not a civil war, at least not yet. After and if this war finishes favorable for Ukraine, that is when you can expect a civil war.

greenmount · #**6048** 28.04.2022, 08:41

This is a perfect example of how people can be turned against other people by their politicians, media etc. and how they take their stereotypes with them wherever they go (have seen it on many occasions on EF too, this Russian Karen looks like some of our EF....Karens lol)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxqVE80fWZ4

Caleb · #**6049** 28.04.2022, 08:41

	Quote:	marton
	Many? From your link "According to the Sova Think Tank, about 100 far-right activists from Russia are currently in Ukraine." 100! Many? How relevant are the events of 2014 to today?

Why do you feed trolls? See my signature. There's people whose posts are not worth acknowledging.

Flakk · #**6050** 28.04.2022, 08:50

	Quote:	Caleb
	Why do you feed trolls? See my signature. There's people whose posts are not worth acknowledging.

Your sig assumes everyone you're talking to is human. Which is not always the case....

Axa · #**6051** 28.04.2022, 11:25

Time to play bingo. Which four?

24H have passed and no detailed clarification from usual suspects: Germany, Austria, Hungary, Czechia and Switzerland (that's my bingo card).

	Quote:
	(Bloomberg) 27.04.2022 -- Four European gas buyers have already paid for supplies in rubles as President Vladimir Putin demanded, according to a person close to Russian gas giant Gazprom PJSC. Even if the other buyers reject the Kremlin’s terms, more cutoffs after the halt in gas flows to Poland and Bulgaria Wednesday aren’t likely until the second half of May when the next payments are due, the person said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential matters. Ten European companies have already opened the accounts at Gazprombank needed to meet Russia’s payment demands, the person said. Supplies to Poland and Bulgaria were cut off after they refused Gazprom’s proposed mechanism for ruble payments, which the gas giant says does not violate European Union sanctions, according to the person. Russia supplies gas via pipelines to 23 European countries. After the EU imposed sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow demanded that it be paid in rubles for shipments starting April 1. But the bloc told member states that the mechanism the Kremlin proposed, which required opening euro and ruble accounts with state-controlled Gazprombank, would violate the sanctions.

https://news.yahoo.com/four-european...091649434.html

MidfieldGeneral · #**6052** 28.04.2022, 11:38

	Quote:	Caleb
	Why do you feed trolls? See my signature. There's people whose posts are not worth acknowledging.

another poster conflating having a discussion with feeding trolls.

EF is a talkboard not an echochamber.

Flakk · #**6053** 28.04.2022, 11:54

	Quote:	Axa
	Time to play bingo. Which four? 24H have passed and no detailed clarification from usual suspects: Germany, Austria, Hungary, Czechia and Switzerland (that's my bingo card). https://news.yahoo.com/four-european...091649434.html

That's 5! Cheat.

Edit - actually, reading the Guardian's report, looks like it is Hungary plus 4 private companies rather than 4 countries.

John William · #**6054** 28.04.2022, 16:02

Transnistria - The last piece of the Soviet Union - still living in the past.

How does this work?

dandi · #**6055** 28.04.2022, 16:34

	Quote:	John William
	Transnistria - The last piece of the Soviet Union

The last piece of Soviet Union sits in the Kremlin. The rest is just a consequence...

Flakk · #**6056** 28.04.2022, 16:42

	Quote:	Axa
	Time to play bingo. Which four? 24H have passed and no detailed clarification from usual suspects: Germany, Austria, Hungary, Czechia and Switzerland (that's my bingo card).

Looks like it's companies in Hungary, Slovakia, OMV in Austria, Uniper in Germany and Eni in Italy (Guardian quoting from the FT). 3/5, could do better....

Although seems none of them have actually started yet.

Aleydis · #**6057** 28.04.2022, 23:27

	Quote:	John William
	Transnistria - The last piece of the Soviet Union - still living in the past.

Textbook example of a frozen conflict. But then again joining NATO was never the game.

greenmount · #**6058** 29.04.2022, 07:48

	Quote:	Aleydis
	Textbook example of a frozen conflict. But then again joining NATO was never the game.

A conflict invented and fed by Russia, let's be clear on this one. R. Moldova was never aggressive towards Ru, have proclaimed their neutrality in their constitution, didn't say they want Nato although I believe they regret deeply by now, don't even have an army.
And yet, some people in Kremlin make all sort of "hilarious" accusations. They all seem to be on something good, I don't think it's just alcohol. Somebody should de-toxify Kremlin...especially that lady, Maria Zakharova.
But well, it's not really Moldova they want to hit here, I think. (although they already hit Md by banning imports of their wines and other products) Ru wants to cut Ukraine's access to the Black Sea and Romania's access to Ukraine...does anyone really hope this war will finish anytime soon? Because it seems that Russia's targets are moving all the time. Their wet dream is to also attack Poland, what a surprise.

Excad · #**6059** 29.04.2022, 09:10

	Quote:	greenmount
	A conflict invented and fed by Russia, let's be clear on this one. R. Moldova was never aggressive towards Ru, have proclaimed their neutrality in their constitution, didn't say they want Nato although I believe they regret deeply by now, don't even have an army. And yet, some people in Kremlin make all sort of "hilarious" accusations. They all seem to be on something good, I don't think it's just alcohol. Somebody should de-toxify Kremlin...especially that lady, Maria Zakharova. But well, it's not really Moldova they want to hit here, I think. (although they already hit Md by banning imports of their wines and other products) Ru wants to cut Ukraine's access to the Black Sea and Romania's access to Ukraine...does anyone really hope this war will finish anytime soon? Because it seems that Russia's targets are moving all the time. Their wet dream is to also attack Poland, what a surprise.

Imagine your surname is Putin. Since you came to power, all you do is selling two points to Russian population:
- we are endangered by external power, NATO (stick)
- we will expand and make Russia greater, bigger and richer (carrot)

You do almost only that, because that BS basically guarantees you that you will remain in power and be allowed to steal radiculous amounts of money.

Now, if that is the only thing you do, and you do that year after a year after a year - you created a bubble.
At the beginning maybe it was just a BS to sell to Russian population, but since you are also living inside that bubble - maybe you started to belive that BS yourself.

I believe as humans we tend to undervalue the influence of the sheer repetitiveness of an activity to the brain (even if you don't believe in it initially).
Example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_water_torture - theoretically they are just droplets of water, right?

But add time and repetitveness, and your brain will get mad.

My point in all that is - Putin and his cronies could be high on their own supply.

Phil_MCR · #**6060** 29.04.2022, 09:18

To go back to the topic title, it seems we are edging closer to WW3 with escalations from all slides. IMO, Russia already reached the point where, ignoring politics, it would make sense to use WMDs - hopefully the political backlash would be enough to stay their hand.