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  #6081  
Old 30.04.2022, 11:18
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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It might surprise you that I did not post this to change anyone's mind, but to offer what I think are interesting perspectives.
Sorry, wasn´t meant like that. It was interesting but too long drawn out. At least for me.
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  #6082  
Old 30.04.2022, 11:22
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The Ukraine war will not expand into the rest of Europe, Ukraine has so weakened the Russian army that it has had to pour all its remaining resources into Ukraine.
There are currently reports of Russian "colossal losses" as they try to preserve their own troops by pushing forward poorly trained conscripts from Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, Chechens and Syrian mercenaries.
The Russian army has no remaining capability to expand to other countries, plus it never managed to reach west Ukraine so is anyway blocked from a large part of East Europe.

Meanwhile "Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said a nuclear war must never be launched as there could be "no winners," and he urged countries to adhere to this in an interview with the Dubai-headquartered news outlet Al Arabiya Friday."

Is he talking to Putin, or trying to deescalate, or what?
De escalation would be great at this point, but I don´t see it happening, I also don´t see the Russian forces on gas mark 11. If Russia were to go balls out Ukraine would be a slowly cooling glass parking lot.
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  #6083  
Old 30.04.2022, 12:55
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Siiigh! Sighs Slammer as he sinks on the tooled green leather couch.
„What keeps me awake at night“ He mumbles to the guy with the pen and notebook while looking at some place beyond the ceiling in a thousand yard stare. „Is a future living in squalor, after the bombs took out most of the infrastructure, cold, hungry and feeling my age.“
A tear runs down Slammers cheek. „I feel the pain of my children when the first born died of a preventable illness when the medicine ran out. I see the few friends I have die from despair after simply losing the will to live. I see rich people with a chiefs control over sycophants and yes men taking their pick of the few remaining resources. I see a rise in religious fanatics proclaiming that it was all gods will. I see them being the few islands of stability in a wasteland, and if you want food or water from them then you bend to gods will.
I see the Voyager spacecraft and other marvels of the age transmitting amazing findings to a world that no longer cares.
I see children growing up without the capabilty to read or write.
…Nobody in command of the skills needed to rebuild a civilization, woodwork, farming, metalworking.
…No resources to build anew, no easy obtainable metals, no energy source, no way to sustain the survivors.
I see a slide back to the Stone Age without any means to rebuild a civilization.

Uhhh! Shall I continue?
I think you should listen the Pink Floyd's the Final Cut and cheer up a bit.
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  #6084  
Old 30.04.2022, 14:12
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Escalators and quagmires

By Lawrence Freedman

"The problem from the start has not been Putin’s face but his mind. The track record of those attempting to anticipate his choices has been poor, and constant speculation about how he might lash out as he approaches his personal Götterdämmerung tends to make us more anxious than wise. There are all sorts of things that Putin might do to express his anger and frustration but none will gain him any lasting strategic advantage. The best course is for Ukraine to stick to its reasonable objective of expelling Russian troops from its soil and NATO to support them in that endeavour."

https://samf.substack.com/p/escalato...um=reader2&s=r
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Old 30.04.2022, 15:45
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Escalators and quagmires

By Lawrence Freedman

"The problem from the start has not been Putin’s face but his mind. The track record of those attempting to anticipate his choices has been poor, and constant speculation about how he might lash out as he approaches his personal Götterdämmerung tends to make us more anxious than wise. There are all sorts of things that Putin might do to express his anger and frustration but none will gain him any lasting strategic advantage. The best course is for Ukraine to stick to its reasonable objective of expelling Russian troops from its soil and NATO to support them in that endeavour."

https://samf.substack.com/p/escalato...um=reader2&s=r
I am certainly not looking forward to the 9th of May.
Buckle your seatbelt 😔😔
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  #6086  
Old 30.04.2022, 16:00
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Big power plant fire in Sakhalin which is simply far too far away from Ukraine to be enemy action.

Many Ukrainian refugees were forcibly deported to Sakhalin, probably just a coincidence.

Last edited by marton; 30.04.2022 at 20:58.
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  #6087  
Old 30.04.2022, 19:00
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

https://twitter.com/mbk_center/statu...DCRGaktwBvuD5g

"The detainees were holding invisible posters with anti-government slogans"
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  #6088  
Old 30.04.2022, 19:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Vicious Blame Game Erupts Among Putin’s Security Forces
President Putin and his security institutions are no longer a united front.

By Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan
April 27, 2022

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/...-forces-a77508

Supports the argument that the military may be keener on escalating than Putin or the FSB/SVR guys.
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  #6089  
Old 30.04.2022, 19:41
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Big power plant fire in Sakhalin which is simply far too far away from Ukraine to be enemy action.

Coincidentally many Ukrainian refugees were forcibly deported to Sakhalin, probably just a coincidence.
Who says there's only one enemy?

Technically Japan and Russia have been at war since 1945 and still are, as USSR/Russia isn't party to the 1951 San Francisco Peace Treaty (the Cold War had already started by then).

In August 1945, a couple days after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Russia had declared war on Japan and invaded what Japan calls the Northern Territory to this day, the four small islands northeast of Hokkaido (Kunashiri, Schikotan, Habomai, Etorofu). The defenders were ordered to surrender a few days later when the Emperor declared defeat and surrendered, the islands have been under Russian control since.

Japan and Russia signed a declaration in 1956 that Russia would hand the four islands back to Japan in the case of a peace treaty. But in 2015 then-PM Medvedev visited the islands, clearly marking them as Russian territory. Russia installed S-300V4 there last year, some 4000 soldiers are stationed there along with a few fighter jets, artillery, tanks, and whatnot. Japan joined the sanctions against Russia, and for the first time since roughly the Millenium called Russia's presence on the four islands a "hostile occupation" in its 2022 Diplomatic Bluebook after Russia ended the peace treaty negotiations.

Formally Japan has no army, but they've armed other forces like branches of the police as if. Nobody appears to have complained, least of all the US which Biden said later last year would defend Japan.

What if Japan took control of the islands? Russia can't handle two wars. I bet China has old gripes as well.
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  #6090  
Old 30.04.2022, 19:47
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

How come TMT has not been designated as 'foreign agent'? Hmmm... or has it?

Question was addressed to komsomolez ��
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  #6091  
Old 30.04.2022, 19:47
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Who says there's only one enemy?

Technically Japan and Russia have been at war since 1945 and still are, as USSR/Russia isn't party to the 1951 San Francisco Peace Treaty (the Cold War had already started by then).

.
That would put a totally new slant on things. The world gets together to mug Russia.
But I doubt it, Japan, like Germany has a token army but are dependent on the US if things get real.
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  #6092  
Old 30.04.2022, 19:53
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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How come TMT has not been designated as 'foreign agent'? Hmmm... or has it?

Question was addressed to komsomolez ��
I believe they are now in Amsterdam, and their website is blocked in Russia. It is therefore a less official paper than the Tehran Times
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Old 30.04.2022, 19:57
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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What if Japan took control of the islands? Russia can't handle two wars. I bet China has old gripes as well.
How cool would that be? We could split it between NATO, China and Japan, and use it as a gas station. I'd vote for South Korea also getting a share. Maybe even India. Everybody wins. We can leave Rossiya-1 on air, so maybe the ordinary Russian doesn't even notice.
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Old 30.04.2022, 20:37
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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That would put a totally new slant on things. The world gets together to mug Russia.
But I doubt it, Japan, like Germany has a token army but are dependent on the US if things get real.
Dunno. It seems rather important to Japan.

In other news, US deliveries to Ukraine are now part of Lend&Lease, cost limit (so far) some $30bln. Certainly the US will start to deliver more complex systems, like "intelligent" heavy artillery, that will require training, that's probably started already.

Even something as relatively simple as supplying the artillery shells (a high 5-digit or even 6-digit number each month, plus "powder", igniters, gun spare parts, and whatnot) must be a logistical nightmare in a war zone.
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  #6095  
Old 30.04.2022, 20:41
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Everybody wins.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgLzJm83bZ8
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  #6096  
Old 30.04.2022, 21:25
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Dunno. It seems rather important to Japan.

In other news, US deliveries to Ukraine are now part of Lend&Lease, cost limit (so far) some $30bln. Certainly the US will start to deliver more complex systems, like "intelligent" heavy artillery, that will require training, that's probably started already.

Even something as relatively simple as supplying the artillery shells (a high 5-digit or even 6-digit number each month, plus "powder", igniters, gun spare parts, and whatnot) must be a logistical nightmare in a war zone.
Reality has overtaken you. It was reported that the US is training members of the Ukraine military in Germany.
https://www.dw.com/en/us-training-uk...any/a-61642682
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Old 01.05.2022, 12:35
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

H'm I wonder whether Putin's army of saboteurs to Britain are here already and snitching on all these Tory party scandals, lockdown parties & sleeze ?


Maybe a number of Putin's Soviet Sleeper agents that infiltrated the higher echelons of the tory party establishment at Eton, Oxford, Cambridge the ERG etc ( do you remember the Cambridge Spy Ring ? ) have sown the seeds of trouble already and are just waiting for Boris to finally slip over on his own banana skin ??


Express - Putin´s army of saboteurs heading to Britain, raises concerns of major disruption


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  #6098  
Old 01.05.2022, 13:35
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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H'm I wonder whether Putin's army of saboteurs to Britain are here already and snitching on all these Tory party scandals, lockdown parties & sleeze ?
Or it could be that Boris is secretly in league with Putin and Putin invaded to distract from Boris's misdemeanours?
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  #6099  
Old 01.05.2022, 16:02
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Or it could be that Boris is secretly in league with Putin and Putin invaded to distract from Boris's misdemeanours?
I wonder if Putin has pee tapes on Boris?
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Old 01.05.2022, 16:11
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I am certainly not looking forward to the 9th of May.
Buckle your seatbelt 😔😔
After all the reports of the damage, Ukraine has made to the Russian army it will be interesting to see how big this year's parade will be.

Russia did not deploy its newest equipment in Ukraine like the T-14 tanks so no doubt those will be on display, but following the engine problems last year then maybe they could borrow some Ukraine tractors to ensure they complete the course.
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