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  #6121  
Old 02.05.2022, 20:52
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

A not so enthusiastic piece about the long game.

What’s Putin’s Next Move? Look to Syria

Russia has learned some dangerous lessons from the West’s inaction in the past. Here’s how to avoid a grimmer tragedy in Ukraine.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...syria-00028041
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  #6122  
Old 02.05.2022, 22:52
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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That should be preventable. The civilians are be cordonned off and the Square is rather large.

On second thought the Neptuns (which sank the Moskwa) are cruise missiles. But their range is too short.
I can´t understand why Ukraine has not fielded suicide bombers. I know it´s not the culture but there must be enough fanatics wanting to stick it to the Russians.
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  #6123  
Old 02.05.2022, 23:52
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Amazing how flexible people can be when faced with forced change.

Just watching a news program on ZDF that shows a Ukrainian farmer calmly clearing his fields of unexploded missiles by towing them behind his tractor and piling them up in a corner.

I would not go anywhere near them...
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  #6124  
Old 03.05.2022, 08:57
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Amazing how flexible people can be when faced with forced change.

Just watching a news program on ZDF that shows a Ukrainian farmer calmly clearing his fields of unexploded missiles by towing them behind his tractor and piling them up in a corner.

I would not go anywhere near them...
I believe life hasn't been too easy on Ukrainians even before this senseless war and they are used with hardships, especially farmers. You're comparing yourself with people who had to be either resilient or perish. For the Westerners, once the Second World War was over their life has started to gradually improve and these advancements, economical, technological and social progress have lasted and everything was built on top of something. In the East of Europe we didn't enjoy that much comfort along our history. Think of Sisyphus here. Every generation was told they were gonna be the last "sacrificed generation". Oh, well..
I'm still in shock when I think of the mass destructions Ukraine has gone through this war and...it ain't over yet. Let alone all the people who died.

Last edited by greenmount; 03.05.2022 at 09:08.
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  #6125  
Old 03.05.2022, 11:50
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I'm still in shock when I think of the mass destructions Ukraine has gone through this war and...it ain't over yet.
Further arming Ukraine will only destroy it. The west must act to end this war now
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...n-russia-talks
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  #6126  
Old 03.05.2022, 11:53
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Further arming Ukraine will only destroy it. The west must act to end this war now
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...n-russia-talks
Really? There is exactly one who can immediately end this.

Sounds a bit like "peace in our time" talk.
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  #6127  
Old 03.05.2022, 12:09
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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For the Westerners, once the Second World War was over their life has started to gradually improve and these advancements, economical, technological and social progress have lasted and everything was built on top of something.
Just curiosity, no old money over there?
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  #6128  
Old 03.05.2022, 12:47
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Further arming Ukraine will only destroy it. The west must act to end this war now
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...n-russia-talks
Well, a bit of history.

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Here is the answer which I will give to President Roosevelt: Put your confidence in us. Give us your faith and your blessing, and, under Providence, all will be well.

We shall not fail or falter; we shall not weaken or tire. Neither the sudden shock of battle, nor the long-drawn trials of vigilance and exertion will wear us down. Give us the tools, and we will finish the job."


So we can now fix Mr. Roxburgh's opinion peace, this looks much better:

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President Roosevelt cannot bring himself to broach these matters, which would seem to reward Hitler for attempting to redraw the map by force. He would rather fight – or more accurately, let the British Empire fight, in the hope of defeating Russia...errrr Germany. But if one thing is certain it is that Hitler will never accept defeat. He is already too deeply invested in this war to back off with nothing to show for it. If President Roosevelt thinks that their arms-length encouragement of the British Empire will bring about a British Empire military victory, then they are fatally misreading Hitler’s intentions and resolve. For England’s sake, we need to stop him now, one way or the other, before nothing is left of the country we want to protect.
In the end, the decision is in the hands of the people fighting in Ukraine. If they want to fight until the end, lend-lease of weapons only supports them. If they don't want to fight, no matter others do, war is over.

PS. a lot of ink was used during 1941 to tell the Americans were paying he British to the dying part, so no surprises. But another more important thing happened during this lend-lease program: Americans had the incentive to repurpose their manufacturing capacities to war material even if they were NEUTRAL. So, when the bombs fell in Pearl Harbor, war industry was already a well-oiled machine churning out weapons. Roosevelt had already ordered thousands of bombers, fighter airplanes, ships and tanks. If things go awry again, the manufacturing capacities of US will be ready again while they stay NEUTRAL. Well, I shouldn't talk in future tense, the manufacturing capabilities had already been awaken, they're WOKE today (pun intended).

Last edited by Axa; 03.05.2022 at 13:25. Reason: added the PS
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  #6129  
Old 03.05.2022, 13:23
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Axa, I am not sure about your Churchill comparison. Without the US landing in Italy and France and taking on the Germans directly, I doubt WWII would have ended the way it did. And Britain was never in the situation Ukraine is in now, with the enemy occupying chunks of it.

The Guardian article of course is a disgrace and effectively suggests the West should offer a partition of Ukraine to reward Putin. It totally negates the sovereignity of Ukraine. Also, it plays to the argument that "inevitably the Russians will win". There are some military experts saying that Ukraine is now close to parity in conventional military power.

But, as the Politico article I posted above shows, indeed there is a large risk of this becoming a forever conflict, at least in the East and South of Ukraine, and Russia seems to have no interest so far in a solution. It may bet on the West losing focus and moving on.

Last edited by komsomolez; 03.05.2022 at 13:41.
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  #6130  
Old 03.05.2022, 14:05
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Axa, I am not sure about your Churchill comparison. Without the US landing in Italy and France and taking on the Germans directly, I doubt WWII would have ended the way it did. And Britain was never in the situation Ukraine is in now, with the enemy occupying chunks of it.

The Guardian article of course is a disgrace and effectively suggests the West should offer a partition of Ukraine to reward Putin. It totally negates the sovereignity of Ukraine. Also, it plays to the argument that "inevitably the Russians will win". There are some military experts saying that Ukraine is now close to parity in conventional military power.

But, as the Politico article I posted above shows, indeed there is a large risk of this becoming a forever conflict, at least in the East and South of Ukraine, and Russia seems to have no interest so far in a solution. It may bet on the West losing focus and moving on.
Au contraire, the Channel Islands were occupied for five years, many British cities were bombed and British Malaya including Singapore was invaded.

In Syria, Russia was not facing an organised army with evermore modern weapons, Putin may be ready for a forever conflict but is Russia capable of sustaining that?
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  #6131  
Old 03.05.2022, 14:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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But, as the Politico article I posted above shows, indeed there is a large risk of this becoming a forever conflict, at least in the East and South of Ukraine, and Russia seems to have no interest so far in a solution. It may bet on the West losing focus and moving on.
This is the part I do not understand.

Russia invaded Crimea on 2014. For several reasons we forgot this conflict and war was happening but even this thread started on 2014. So, there is no risk of this becoming a forever conflict. Even before 24.02.2022, it was already a forever conflict.
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  #6132  
Old 03.05.2022, 14:35
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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This is the part I do not understand.

Russia invaded Crimea on 2014. For several reasons we forgot this conflict and war was happening but even this thread started on 2014. So, there is no risk of this becoming a forever conflict. Even before 24.02.2022, it was already a forever conflict.
Oh I Agree. I wrote this in criticism to the Guardian piece that somehow assumes there can be a negotiated and lasting solution. I think this is an illusion as the history of Ukraine (and also Syria) show. Putin does not want this to be solved unless he wins big. There have been many many "ceasefires" with the Russians, and none have led to peace.
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  #6133  
Old 03.05.2022, 14:39
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Axa, I am not sure about your Churchill comparison. Without the US landing in Italy and France and taking on the Germans directly, I doubt WWII would have ended the way it did. And Britain was never in the situation Ukraine is in now, with the enemy occupying chunks of it.

The Guardian article of course is a disgrace and effectively suggests the West should offer a partition of Ukraine to reward Putin. It totally negates the sovereignity of Ukraine. Also, it plays to the argument that "inevitably the Russians will win". There are some military experts saying that Ukraine is now close to parity in conventional military power.

But, as the Politico article I posted above shows, indeed there is a large risk of this becoming a forever conflict, at least in the East and South of Ukraine, and Russia seems to have no interest so far in a solution. It may bet on the West losing focus and moving on.
Well Ukraine is in a precarious position as it depends on other countries to finance the war and provide weapons. If these countries get tired of this, they can pull the plug. They were already pushed into signing the Minsk agreements - they shoudl be concerned that once the impact on prices and energy hits voters in Europe, there may be more calls questioning why we should be getting involved in Ukraine.
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  #6134  
Old 03.05.2022, 15:04
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Well Ukraine is in a precarious position as it depends on other countries to finance the war and provide weapons. If these countries get tired of this, they can pull the plug. They were already pushed into signing the Minsk agreements - they shoudl be concerned that once the impact on prices and energy hits voters in Europe, there may be more calls questioning why we should be getting involved in Ukraine.
Hey, it looks like the same guy from a video you shared:

Quote:
Ukrainian presidential aide Oleksiy Arestovich speaks during an online interview with Nikkei Asia on May 1. (May 2, 2022 15:04)

VIENNA -- Ukraine will be able to go on the offensive against Russia between late May and mid-June, thanks to weapons supplied by the U.S. and European countries, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Pic...Zelenskyy-aide
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  #6135  
Old 03.05.2022, 15:09
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Really? There is exactly one who can immediately end this.
doesn't seem that realistic though...

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In the end, the decision is in the hands of the people fighting in Ukraine. If they want to fight until the end, lend-lease of weapons only supports them. If they don't want to fight, no matter others do, war is over.
i agree with this idea, but the men don't in ukraine don't get to choose whether they fight of not as they are conscripted.
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  #6136  
Old 03.05.2022, 15:23
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I agree with this idea, but the men don't in ukraine don't get to choose whether they fight of not as they are conscripted.
We know for sure that when men don't want to fight, they somehow find a way to avoid the draft. Just look at the stats of immigrants from Syria and Eritrea.

Are Ukrainians less able or less willing to avoid the draft?
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Old 03.05.2022, 16:34
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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We know for sure that when men don't want to fight, they somehow find a way to avoid the draft. Just look at the stats of immigrants from Syria and Eritrea.

Are Ukrainians less able or less willing to avoid the draft?
im not sure. though it seems that if so many men wanted to fight then they wouldn't need to force them to stay.
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Old 03.05.2022, 17:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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im not sure. though it seems that if so many men wanted to fight then they wouldn't need to force them to stay.
I'm really not sure what your point is?

Are you trying to say that Ukrainian men would prefer to live under Russia's rule than to fight for their country?
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  #6139  
Old 03.05.2022, 20:13
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Putin To Undergo Cancer Treatment, Hand Over Power, Claims US Media Report
Vladimir Putin Health: Questions over the Russian President's health have been raised in recent weeks, especially after he was seen tightly gripping a desk during his meeting with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu last month.

Source
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Old 03.05.2022, 20:51
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Putin To Undergo Cancer Treatment, Hand Over Power, Claims US Media Report
Vladimir Putin Health: Questions over the Russian President's health have been raised in recent weeks, especially after he was seen tightly gripping a desk during his meeting with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu last month.

Source
Not that I have much confidence in the NY Post. But yikes, Patrushev. Then again, it was unlikely he would hand over to Nawalny.
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