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  #6401  
Old 14.05.2022, 01:10
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Erdogan is objecting to Finland and Sweden joining Nato. Pity because any decision on NATO enlargement must be made “by unanimous agreement”.
No surprise there.
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  #6402  
Old 14.05.2022, 08:17
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Found this and found it too good not to share:


Putin explains to Chinese President Xi that he’s fighting a proxy war against NATO.​

“How’s it going?” asks Xi.​

“So far, we’ve lost a flagship, 20,000 troops, 8 generals, 500 tanks and 100 planes”, says Putin.​

“What about NATO?” asks Xi.​

“They haven’t turned up yet.”
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  #6403  
Old 14.05.2022, 08:51
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I think this is where we then might see a turn from NATO to pull the plug on UA and force them into a negotiated settlement with RU to end the conflict and avoid escalation.
unfortunately i doubt that will happen. nato have already made clear they are willing to fight until the last ukrainian. plus they have pushed for war over peace since 2014 so it seems unlikely.

as republican dan crenshaw indicated on twitter a few days ago, its a great situation for the west as they get to destroy russia without losing any of their own troops.
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  #6404  
Old 14.05.2022, 09:33
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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unfortunately i doubt that will happen. nato have already made clear they are willing to fight until the last ukrainian. plus they have pushed for war over peace since 2014 so it seems unlikely.

as republican dan crenshaw indicated on twitter a few days ago, its a great situation for the west as they get to destroy russia without losing any of their own troops.
This only works, or worked with nineteenth and early twentieth century armies. It shows how out of touch military planners are, a cavalry charge against tanks if you wish.
With the advent of the atomic bomb and the rocket to deliver it the front line becomes anywhere you want it to be.
The big question is: "How far is Putin willing to be pushed?"
From what I gather, everybody is focused on Ukraine as "The war" people seem to think that it will only be a Russia vrs. Ukraine deathmatch, a small scuffle on the grand scheme of things. Just an annoyance over rising prices.

But it isn´t this is something new, a localized world war perhaps?
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Old 14.05.2022, 09:41
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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unfortunately i doubt that will happen. nato have already made clear they are willing to fight until the last ukrainian. plus they have pushed for war over peace since 2014 so it seems unlikely.

as republican dan crenshaw indicated on twitter a few days ago, its a great situation for the west as they get to destroy russia without losing any of their own troops.
Den Crenshaw Do you want to trade ridiculous quotes from fringe members of the Duma now too?

But yes, I hope the Ukrainians wipe the floor with those Russian motherf---ers.
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  #6406  
Old 14.05.2022, 10:04
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

The London Times reports today that "an oligarch" stated in "an interview" that Putin is suffering from blood cancer...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/p...ying-50gx8mk6j
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  #6407  
Old 14.05.2022, 10:07
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The London Times reports today that "an oligarch" stated in "an interview" that Putin is suffering from blood cancer...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/p...ying-50gx8mk6j
Let´s hope he doesnt want to go out with a bang.
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  #6408  
Old 14.05.2022, 10:33
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The London Times reports today that "an oligarch" stated in "an interview" that Putin is suffering from blood cancer...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/p...ying-50gx8mk6j
I posted a quite extensive article on this two pages or so ago. Quite interesting. I thought the argument that this increases the probability of people refusing suicidal orders was convincing.
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  #6409  
Old 14.05.2022, 11:13
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Den Crenshaw Do you want to trade ridiculous quotes from fringe members of the Duma now too?
i mean the west has made it pretty clear that they're willing to finance and equip ukrainians to fight but they're not willing to fight themselves. so i don't think what he said is very fringe or ridiculous at all.
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  #6410  
Old 14.05.2022, 11:35
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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i mean the west has made it pretty clear that they're willing to finance and equip ukrainians to help them to fight against the unprovoked invasion by Russia but they're not willing to fight themselves get involved directly and so escalate the whole thing up to open war with NATO....
I think that's probably more accurate.


Hey "The West" - including Japan, Australia...
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Old 14.05.2022, 12:17
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I'm not sure about "fit of rage" but just from a logical point of view, Putin has clearly stated where his 'red lines' are. He's shown that he's willing to back this up with military force. Through sheer numbers and attrition, he would have been able to defeat Ukraine over time even if using blunt tactics such as flattening everything along the way with artillery.

The big question mark is whether military and intelligence support from NATO puts this 'win' at risk or at least poses a huge additional cost. With the US howitzers arriving, it is questionable whether RU can continue their tactic of flattening things from a safe distance if they are now outranged by new UA equipment. Their supplies will need to be pulled further back and everything will grind to a holt (they are already barely advancing).

If unable to win conventionally, RU might be faced with a choice of fighting with nuclear/chemical/biological weapons (at huge political cost) or face a humiliating retreat/defeat. I wouldn't want to bet on Putin takingthe second option.

Therefore, the question will be what kind of face-saving exit could be offered to Putin. Keeping Crimea and enforcing terms of Minsk agreements might be the minimum acceptable by Putin, but hardly what UA will want to give up if kicking out RU completely is within their grasp.

I think this is where we then might see a turn from NATO to pull the plug on UA and force them into a negotiated settlement with RU to end the conflict and avoid escalation.
"sheer numbers" the majority of the Russian army is made up of conscripts. Putin has said he will not send conscripts to Ukraine to fight so if we choose to believe him then the Russian numbers are not so huge.
Most of his professional army is already deployed and is severely depleted due to deaths, injuries, combat fatigue or simply refusing to fight anymore.
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  #6412  
Old 14.05.2022, 12:45
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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i mean the west has made it pretty clear that they're willing to finance and equip ukrainians to fight but they're not willing to fight themselves. so i don't think what he said is very fringe or ridiculous at all.
I don't know why I'm thinking about bullfighting. I even don't like it.

Anyway, who's the bull? Who's the picador, banderillero and matador? No one would dare to say the the matador is not willing to fight the bull. It's only that the matador is having some coffee while the others do their parts. All quotes from the wiki

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A picador is a bullfighter who uses a special lance called pica while on horseback to test the bull's strength and to provide clues to the matador on which side the bull is favoring...the picador lances the bull in a large muscle at the back of the neck; thus begins the work of lowering his head. The picador continues to stab at the bull's neck leading to the animal's first major loss of blood. The enduring loss of blood and exertion gradually weakens the bull further and makes it ready for the next stage.

The banderillero is a torero who plants the banderillas (lit. little flags). These are colorful sticks... Banderilleros attempt to place the sticks while running as close to the bull as possible. They are judged by the crowd on their form and bravery. Skilled banderilleros can correct faults in the manner in which the bull charges by lancing the bull in such a way that the bull ceases hooking to one side, and thereby removing a potential source of danger to the matador by limiting the bull's offensive movements.

In the third and final stage – the tercio de muerte ("part of death") – the matador re-enters the ring alone with a small red cape or muleta in one hand and a sword (estoc) in the other. This cape is stretched with a wooden dowel and, in right-handed passes, the sword as well. Having dedicated the bull to an individual or the whole audience, the matador uses his cape to attract the bull in a series of passes, demonstrating their control over it. The faena ends with a final series of passes in which the matador with a muleta attempts to manoeuvre the bull into a position to stab it between the shoulder blades and through the aorta or heart.
PS the "West" is rearming, quite idiotic to enter the stage before being ready. Those new jets and air defense system for CH cannot arrive fast enough.
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  #6413  
Old 14.05.2022, 12:49
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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He will probably want to be paid, in some way. As always.

These institutions are notoriously difficult to overhaul. Otherwise I would happily kick out Hungary (and if need be Turkey) in exchange for Sweden and Finland.
I was just wondering whether it needs to be unanimous to kick Turkey out of NATO.

And perhaps the best way to deal with Hungary is reverse-Huxit. Off you go, if you can't play nicely with us.
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  #6414  
Old 14.05.2022, 15:56
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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That sounds like a bad joke.
Can you share the source?
Just to avoid misunderstandings: the parcel is Russian property, it's not Russian territory.

No joke. I'm talking about the Suvorov (Suvarow) monument. It gained increased attention in light of the events in Ukraine, and in particular because Putin referenced Suvorov in his Feb 23 speech. Some have suggested to cover the monument with an Ukrainian flag, this goes to show how easily ideology can replace rational judgement.

This article by Tagi gives a nice overview (translation by deepl). Perhaps someone can translate the monument inscription?

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"Actually, it would now be urgently advisable for the government of Uri to have the Suvorov monument in the Schöllenen Gorge covered by a huge Ukrainian flag by official decision of the government council": this is what Karl Stadler, former public prosecutor in Uri and now cantonal data protection officer, demands in a letter to the editor. This would be a strong sign of sympathy for the fate of the Ukrainian people.

Why this is important beyond the mountain canton: the 12-metre-high memorial cross in honour of the fallen soldiers in the battle against Napoleon's troops in 1799 is more than a remnant of a historical era that is hardly present any more.

Monument should not become a place of pilgrimage

In his incendiary speech on 23 February, with which he launched the war against Ukraine, Vladimir Putin explicitly referred to General Alexander Vasilyevich Suvorov. Thanks to his campaigns against the Turks, many large cities in Ukraine had been brought under Russian rule. In addition, he had settled the Crimea with people loyal to Russia.

The fact that a monument to Suvorov was recently toppled in the Ukrainian city of Poltava in order to erase "colonial traces of the Russian empire" really infuriated the Russian despot during his speech to the nation.

This heroisation of the Russian commander now puts the political leadership of the central Swiss canton of Uri in a quandary. Normally, the seven magistrates do not react to letters to the editor. This time it is different. "We don't want the monument to become a place of pilgrimage in these times of war, neither for Russians nor for Ukrainians," says Landammann Urban Camenzind. They would certainly not have the monument wrapped in a Ukraine flag.

The people of Uri could not and would not be allowed to do so, since the corresponding 563 square metre plot in the Schöllenen Gorge belongs to the Russians. That is why the government of Uri is trying to work through discreet channels to keep things quiet at this historic site. Camenzind explains that the head of protocol at the Department of Foreign Affairs, Beatrice Schaer, has been contacted to express Uri's concerns.

According to the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA), no permit is required for events in the Schöllenen. "The Russian Embassy informs the FDFA about planned events and we then inform the relevant authorities," says spokesperson Andreas Heller. The last events took place as part of the Suvorov Days on 24 and 25 September last year.

The annual commemorations are always held with a lot of pomp: The so-called Suvorov cadets, recruits of the Moscow military school, play for the wreath-laying ceremony. In 2009, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev visited the memorial together with the then President of the Swiss Confederation, Hans-Rudolf Merz, to show how important this monument carved in granite is to the Russians.

Usually also present at this event at the end of September is the ambassador of the Russian Federation. In retrospect, Sergei Garmonin's speech in 2019 seems like a beacon for the war of invasion now launched by Russia. Suvorov had managed to emerge victorious from all 63 battles, thanks in part to his slogan, Garmonin said: "We are Russians - we will win."
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  #6415  
Old 14.05.2022, 16:00
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Found this and found it too good not to share:


Putin explains to Chinese President Xi that he’s fighting a proxy war against NATO.​
​“How’s it going?” asks Xi.​
​“So far, we’ve lost a flagship, 20,000 troops, 8 generals, 500 tanks and 100 planes”, says Putin.​
​“What about NATO?” asks Xi.​
​“They haven’t turned up yet.”
Hwever they have established air superiority by now.


Their Flying Tank Turrets are a hit.
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  #6416  
Old 14.05.2022, 16:15
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Den Crenshaw Do you want to trade ridiculous quotes from fringe members of the Duma now too?

But yes, I hope the Ukrainians wipe the floor with those Russian motherf---ers.
Dan Crenshaw is a lunatic but he still seems to be saying the unspoken part out loud.

of course him and the other politicians don’t seem to be focused as much on their own people
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  #6417  
Old 14.05.2022, 16:37
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

What actually happens with the frozen oligarch money? Before any sanctions could be lifted, there would need to be talk about reparations. As reparations borne by an entire country historically have proven to be difficult, wouldn't it be elegant if these billions (that are stolen anyhow) could be used to rebuilf Ukraine? It just feels like there is no legal basis for this whatsoever. Or is there?
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  #6418  
Old 14.05.2022, 16:45
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Dan Crenshaw is a lunatic but he still seems to be saying the unspoken part out loud.
I don't know. I think on balance, this war creates far more problems globally and also for the US than it solves. But of course, if you only look at the direct US aid of now 50 billion, this is a reasonable price to have Russia's army beaten up.
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Old 14.05.2022, 19:33
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Funny how the Big Encirclement has worked out in Eastern Ukraine.



https://twitter.com/Copernicus2013/s...sjpPVQfYQ&s=19
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Old 14.05.2022, 22:15
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Hwever they have established air superiority by now.

Their Flying Tank Turrets are a hit.
Indeed, Russians tookover youtube with car dashcam videos. This is 2nd takeover with flying tank turrets.

From Chinese TV news, go to 2m20s. Just wondering what's the sticker price of a tank

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