Russia is on track for a record trade surplus / Imports have collapsed, but exports are holding up

WITHIN DAYS of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s financial system seemed on the verge of collapse. The West imposed a range of financial sanctions, notably on the Russian central bank’s foreign-exchange reserves, that sent the rouble plunging and led citizens to withdraw cash frantically. Then the central bank raised interest rates, imposed capital controls and injected liquidity into the banking system, and some of these misfortunes reversed. Although a chunk of Russia’s currency reserves remains frozen, the country still generates about $1bn a day from its energy exports.

Russia has stopped publishing detailed monthly trade statistics. But figures from its trading partners can be used to work out what is going on. They suggest that, as imports slide and exports hold up, Russia is running a record trade surplus.

On May 9th China reported that its goods exports to Russia fell by over a quarter in April, compared with a year earlier, while its imports from Russia rose by more than 56%. Germany reported a 62% monthly drop in exports to Russia in March, and its imports fell by 3%. Adding up such flows across eight of Russia’s biggest trading partners, we estimate that Russian imports have fallen by about 44% since the invasion of Ukraine, while its exports have risen by roughly 8%.

According to British economist Frances Cairncross (in April 2010) "Ukrainian education is too inward-looking, too corrupt and too poor to do a good job".[30] According to Swedish economist Anders Åslund (in October 2012) the best parts of the Ukrainian education system are basic education in mathematics and science;

Ukrainian professor O. Bazaluk [uk] reports that the Ukrainian education provides for a student nothing more than an illusion of training. As a result the majority of the Ukrainian graduates do not possess even a basic level of professional knowledge when they leave their schools. Due to extremely ineffective educational policy of the Ukrainian government and ubiquitous corruption the everyday life of the society has been significantly changed. The new developed qualities of the social transformation include aggression, rudeness, intolerance, boastfulness, reticence etc.[31]

In 2013 the education system received the third highest percentage among Ukrainians of having given a bribe too with 33%.[32]