Putin was forced into a diplomatic retreat on the issue of Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

“As to enlargement, Russia has no problem with these states – none,” he said on May 16.

“And so in this sense there is no immediate threat to Russia from an expansion [of NATO] to include these countries,” Putin told the leaders of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, a military alliance of former Soviet states.

“But the expansion of military infrastructure into this territory would certainly provoke our response,” he said.

Putin’s position marked a diplomatic retreat from that expressed by former Russian president and ally Dmitry Medvedev, who said in April that Russia would deploy nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad, across the Baltic Sea from Finland and Sweden, should they consider membership in the military alliance.

“A threat has value while you don’t have to make good on it,” said Constantinos Filis, who directs the Institute of Global Affairs at the American College of Greece.

“Russia threatened Sweden and Finland with consequences if they entered NATO. Once they did so, it was humiliating to insist,” Filis said.

“Putin was forced to soften his stance, to say … they will suffer consequences if they turn against Russia. Of course, Putin knows that both countries have previously said they don’t want to host NATO bases, missile systems and so on,” Filis told Al Jazeera.