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  #6541  
Old 19.05.2022, 15:30
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The US has now actually shipped a large part of its arsenal of JAVELIN and STINGER rocket-launchers to Ukraine - and due to shortages, no supply is coming forward until 2023.

Should another conflict elsewhere arise, the US may no longer be in a position to respond conventionally.
The Stinger was designed 50+ years ago, the plan according to Wiki is to have a replacement ready by 2030 or so. The US have been reducing "boots on foreign ground" for decades, that reduces their own potential need for those two manpads by quite a bit. And of course a proper army, let alone the US Navy+Air Force+Army+National Guard, has far more weapons at their disposal than just Stinger and Javelin.

Western Europe has most of its armies for no other reason than to protect from Russian(USSR) aggression. This may sound cynical but today those (partially obsolete) stockpiles (ironically including sowjet-made stuff) are actually used as intended: to fight the Russian army, destroy its hardware and reduce that threat. Every Russian vehicle destroyed in Ukraine is one less vehicle that can attack the rest of Europe. Perhaps with the exception of Russia's direct neighbors, the west should support Ukraine with whatever they have lying around (and especially western Europe replenish their own stockpiles ASAP).

WRT "next time" and building back the stockpiles, that's where the respective economic size comes into play. The west's is 30 times larger, and contrary to Russia it's its own source of all kinds of top notch knowledge and technology including software, electronics, chips, and materials and parts.

So yes, if it wants Europe can (compared to Russia with ease) be prepared just as well as it's today. But "next time" seems now much less likely to happen in Europe than in East Asia, China has been flexing its muscles quite a bit lately. The US have recently changed their stance and are now officially supporting sufficient Taiwanese self-defense capability as a democracy (and thus independent country, but that's not openly said).
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  #6542  
Old 19.05.2022, 15:55
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The US have recently changed their stance and are now officially supporting sufficient Taiwanese self-defense capability as a democracy (and thus independent country, but that's not openly said).
I don't think they've changed their stance as much as that it used to be enough to just sail a carrier group through the Taiwan strait and China got the hint.

Now with China's missile technology that's less of a deterrent.
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  #6543  
Old 19.05.2022, 17:44
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I don't think they've changed their stance as much as that it used to be enough to just sail a carrier group through the Taiwan strait and China got the hint.

Now with China's missile technology that's less of a deterrent.
Compare the previous version of the USSD web site on Taiwan relations to the current version.

The US State Department (USSD) has removed the "The US does not support Taiwan indepence" entirely. Democracy (which obviously excludes China, the PRC) is now an important aspect. The US support Taiwan's right to self-defense (against whom, if China were the lawful motherland?) and will "supply what's necessary" to that end rather than merely help maintain defense capability.

Also note the sequence, the important stuff comes first. That's Taiwan, the US' (expanding and deepening!) relationship with it, and the fact that it's a (ambassador of) democracy. The various legal papers are mentioned only later on and in passing.

And of course, Biden is the first POTUS in decades to explicitly and repeatedly proclaim that "we will defend Taiwan if China attacks", that's a massive difference from "help maintain defense".
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  #6544  
Old 19.05.2022, 20:45
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

One key point is that if Putin does take the nuclear option then he is, de facto, admitting the Russian army cannot defeat Ukraine with traditional military means. This would lead to questions about what happened to the huge Russian military budget that was supposed to keep the Russian army state of the art and top of the league.

If Putin blames NATO for equipping Ukraine with the latest military weapons then he is also admitting Russia does not have such advanced capabilities.
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Old 19.05.2022, 20:59
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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One key point is that if Putin does take the nuclear option then he is, de facto, admitting the Russian army cannot defeat Ukraine with traditional military means. This would lead to questions about what happened to the huge Russian military budget that was supposed to keep the Russian army state of the art and top of the league.

If Putin blames NATO for equipping Ukraine with the latest military weapons then he is also admitting Russia does not have such advanced capabilities.
Admitting it to whom? Ivan and Natascha, Putin´s base, they don´t know that, never will.
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Old 19.05.2022, 21:56
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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One key point is that if Putin does take the nuclear option then he is, de facto, admitting the Russian army cannot defeat Ukraine with traditional military means. This would lead to questions about what happened to the huge Russian military budget that was supposed to keep the Russian army state of the art and top of the league.
The US couldn't win in Afghanistan with the biggest military and biggest economy in the world. Did that lead to the same kind of questions?
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Old 19.05.2022, 22:11
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The US couldn't win in Afghanistan with the biggest military and biggest economy in the world. Did that lead to the same kind of questions?
A completely different situation.

In Ukraine, we have two armies facing each other in a traditional battle for conquest of the country.

In Afghanistan, both the US and Russia in turn quickly conquered the country but were unable to control their occupied territory.

Whoever eventually wins in Ukraine may also have issues controlling the occupied territory but that is probably far into the future.
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  #6548  
Old 19.05.2022, 23:11
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Admitting it to whom? Ivan and Natascha, Putin´s base, they don´t know that, never will.
We live in a multipolar world. So a list of rising stars that would take note of Putin's mismanagement: China, India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran.

Don't know how many Russian troops are left in Syria, but a perceived weakening of Russia would move the balance over there.
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  #6549  
Old 20.05.2022, 07:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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We live in a multipolar world. So a list of rising stars that would take note of Putin's mismanagement: China, India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran.

Don't know how many Russian troops are left in Syria, but a perceived weakening of Russia would move the balance over there.
That in it´s self is dangerous. For instance the US, after decades of half hearted and soft foreign policies is starting to flex muscle again. What would stop Russia from doubling down to look tough?
At the moment I can imagine that the military shakers and movers in the Kremlin are doing a lot of navel gazing and wondering what their next move will be.
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Old 20.05.2022, 08:34
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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quickly conquered the country but were unable to control their occupied territory.
no they didn't conquer the country by your own words.

conquer /ˈkɒŋkə/
verb
overcome and take control of (a place or people) by military force.
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  #6551  
Old 20.05.2022, 09:05
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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A completely different situation.

In Ukraine, we have two armies facing each other in a traditional battle for conquest of the country.

In Afghanistan, both the US and Russia in turn quickly conquered the country but were unable to control their occupied territory.

Whoever eventually wins in Ukraine may also have issues controlling the occupied territory but that is probably far into the future.
Unless Ukraine occupies some Russian territories (which probably won't happen), it won't have any problem in controlling it's own territories. The conflict in the east was fully staged by Russia and had no real reason behind. The regained territories will be easily re-integrated in Ukraine.
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  #6552  
Old 20.05.2022, 09:58
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

US accuses Russia of weaponising food in Ukraine crisis and holding global supplies ‘hostage’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...pplies-hostage

lol
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  #6553  
Old 20.05.2022, 10:18
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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US accuses Russia of weaponising food in Ukraine crisis and holding global supplies ‘hostage’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...pplies-hostage

lol
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/how-the...risis/47587712

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The UN World Food Programme (WFP) is warning that the number of hungry people in the Horn of Africa could increase from 15 million to 20 million this year.
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The war in Ukraine has disrupted global supply chains and has sent the prices of food, fuel, and fertilisers to record-high levels.
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The increase was driven by the prices of cereals and vegetable oils, which soared due to the impact of the war in Ukraine on supply chains. Russia and Ukraine are top exporters of cereals such as wheat, maize, and corn and vegetable oils like sunflower oil. Russia is also a top exporter of fertilisers.
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“The number of food insecure people keeps increasing as the situation deteriorates.”
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“Without achieving political stability, it’s going to be difficult to achieve food security goals.”
No decent human being could laugh at this.
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  #6554  
Old 20.05.2022, 11:17
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Well, we burn millions of tons of grains in our cars every year with E10 gas.

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Cutting biofuels can help avoid global food shock from Ukraine war

The US and Europe can compensate for the loss of Ukraine’s grain exports by scrapping biofuel mandates, helping to avoid a food price shock

Quickly increasing the supply of food crops is difficult. But a large proportion of food crops aren’t eaten but converted to biofuels. Globally, 10 per cent of all grain is turned into biofuel, says Qaim.

In the US, a third of the maize grown is converted into ethanol and blended into petrol. Around 90 million tonnes is used for ethanol, nearly double the 50 million tonnes exported by Ukraine and Russia, says Qaim.

In the European Union, 12 million tonnes of grain, including wheat and maize, is turned into ethanol, Qaim says, around 7 per cent of the bloc’s production.

The EU also produces large quantities of biodiesel. It turns 3.5 million tonnes of palm oil alone into biodiesel, says Qaim. “That’s almost the amount of sunflower oil coming out of Ukraine and Russia.”

If the US and Europe were to decrease their use of ethanol made from grain by 50 per cent, they would effectively replace all of Ukraine’s exports of grain, Tim Searchinger at Princeton University has calculated in response to a question from New Scientist.

“This is one of the few really quick things we can do,” says Brunner. “We are literally burning a hell of a lot of food.”
https://www.newscientist.com/article...m-ukraine-war/

So, what do we want? Plentiful fuel for cars or food for people? No decent human being would choose fuel, I guess.

PS. is there ethanol free gas in CH?
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  #6555  
Old 20.05.2022, 11:32
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Well, we burn millions of tons of grains in our cars every year with E10 gas.

https://www.newscientist.com/article...m-ukraine-war/

So, what do we want? Plentiful fuel for cars or food for people? No decent human being would choose fuel, I guess.

PS. is there ethanol free gas in CH?
there is also now a global shortage of diesel which is also required to transport and distribute foods.
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  #6556  
Old 20.05.2022, 11:36
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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there is also now a global shortage of diesel which is also required to transport and distribute foods.
There is a huge difference between economical and physical resource scarcity.

So, shortage as in "more expensive" or shortage as in "empty gas station"?
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  #6557  
Old 20.05.2022, 12:25
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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No decent human being could laugh at this.
Vushka's level of empathy is astonishing....

Writing all these things from one of the richest and safest countries in the world..

(if indeed she's living in CH and is not one of those flies attracted by the anonymity of this forum and its relatively high concentration of kindred spirits)
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Old 20.05.2022, 12:45
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Damn! It's Friday.

According to Russia's minister of foreign affairs no opinion poll was made in Sweden for the NATO thingy. Poor Swedish people.

A referendum would have been more interesting but I guess that's a cuss word in Russia



https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/statu...30226288320513

PS. there's only one thing I feel sorry for people in Sweden: alcohol taxes
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Old 20.05.2022, 12:58
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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US accuses Russia of weaponising food in Ukraine crisis and holding global supplies ‘hostage’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...pplies-hostage

lol
maybe shortly after european leaders realise they can't switch away from russian energy, they'll also realise we could have a food crises unless we secure fertilizers and feedstock to produce fertilizers.
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Old 20.05.2022, 13:05
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Well, we burn millions of tons of grains in our cars every year with E10 gas.



https://www.newscientist.com/article...m-ukraine-war/

So, what do we want? Plentiful fuel for cars or food for people? No decent human being would choose fuel, I guess.

PS. is there ethanol free gas in CH?
Germany has decided to stop the Biofuel craziness.

At least one positive thing coming out of this.
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