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  #641  
Old 20.06.2014, 19:56
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I cannot help you with these journals...
Nobody's asking you for help.

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...I simply copied a quote from the IMF web site...
Yeah, the intellectually lazy way to "research" — well done!

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...So far your proof about the US controllin the IMF consists of listing some countries and their voting power but not one piece of evidence that the US took advantage of this, where is the smoking gun?
This is just guesswork not proof.
Try reading the articles for a change. The rest of the world is unhappy with the US position of power in the IMF. That's what the articles are about. Apparently the rest of the world got it wrong too.

You've got your work cut out for you: These guys apparently all need straightening out too. You'd better get busy (the least you can do is send them each a link to the "IMF website"!!)...
Bloomberg: IMF Quota Impasse Hurts U.S. Reputation, Australian Treasurer Says
"The U.S. is the largest shareholder of the fund, with a voting share of 16.8 percent. Major decisions require 85 percent approval, effectively giving the U.S. veto power."

Washington Times: IMF gives U.S. Congress year-end deadline for passing Reforms
"They say there are various ways the IMF can get around the U.S.’s veto-wielding power over most major activities and decisions which require a supermajority vote of 85 percent."

US News: The Hidden Role of Gold at the IMF
"In the middle of these stresses is the United States, which is the only country in the world with veto power over IMF decisions."

Financial Times: Germany asks US to give up its IMF veto
"The US should give up its veto over important decisions in the International Monetary Fund in return for Europe accepting a smaller say, Germany has proposed."

Lowly Interpreter: Is the US holding back IMF reform?
"A large majority of IMF members has passed the reforms, but the changes require an 85% majority within the IMF to be implemented and the US has veto power with its 16.75% voting share."
And in case you're still operating under the delusion that the IMF is nothing but benevolent, you might want to see these...
Argentina’s Intellectual Collapse: How IMF Policies Ruined Argentina’s Economy
"The IMF...provides cheap loans, subsidized mostly by the U.S. government; in return, it dictates economic “advice” to the borrower."

How the IMF Ruined the Turkish Economy
"Dancing to the tune of IMF doctrines, Turkey set up a strict currency-management system, imposed budgetary discipline and moved to privatize state assets, all in accordance with the Washington Consensus."

Imperial Rule: Distant and Out Of Touch, the IMF Ruins Economies Great and Small
"The U.S. has 1 vote out of 182 in the IMF. The [US] Treasury Department exerts considerable influence over IMF policy, but that is neither a source of comfort nor something Congress can control."

The IMF Formula: Prescription for Poverty
"Through its notorious structural adjustment programs (SAPs), it has imposed harsh economic reforms in over 100 countries in the developing and former communist worlds, throwing hundreds of millions of people deeper into poverty."
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Now I had time to read these links they confirm what I wrote; any countries that can gather 15% votes can veto....
Nice try.

Edit: If it's really that simple, why do all these different articles from diverse media sources all agree that the rest of the world is unhappy about the US veto power? If you really know what you're talking about, it shouldn't bother them so much. But it does bother them (hint, hint). And I think that's because it's not as simple as you seem to suggest. Anyway, what reasonable basis do we have for trusting the IMF's own website to tell the truth?
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Last edited by Texaner; 20.06.2014 at 23:25.
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  #642  
Old 20.06.2014, 23:51
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

About " what reasonable basis do we have for trusting the IMF's own website to tell the truth? "


Oh dear; let us ignore the real world together
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  #643  
Old 21.06.2014, 07:24
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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...Oh dear; let us ignore the real world together
No thanks — I couldn't keep up with your talent in that capacity.
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  #644  
Old 21.06.2014, 08:46
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Marton you managed to completely screw a quite interesting discusson on Ukraine.
I think there's a word for that.

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  #645  
Old 21.06.2014, 09:31
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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No thanks — I couldn't keep up with your talent in that capacity.
BTW, every IMF decision requires 85% of the votes.
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  #646  
Old 21.06.2014, 09:32
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Marton you managed to completely screw a quite interesting discusson on Ukraine.
I think there's a word for that.

Well I did start this thread.
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  #647  
Old 21.06.2014, 11:44
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

The Ukrainian government said a promised unilateral ceasefire in the east of the country would begin on Friday evening and last a week, as Barack Obama and European leaders discussed imposing new penalties on Russia.

The ceasefire is part of President Petro Poroshenko's plan to win back control over eastern Ukraine.

Let us hope this is the first step in a lasting peace process!
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  #648  
Old 22.06.2014, 09:58
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The Ukrainian government said a promised unilateral ceasefire in the east of the country would begin on Friday evening and last a week, as Barack Obama and European leaders discussed imposing new penalties on Russia.

The ceasefire is part of President Petro Poroshenko's plan to win back control over eastern Ukraine.

Let us hope this is the first step in a lasting peace process!
Understandable indeed. BUT is it what his country needs ? At present, Western Ukraine subsidisies Eastern Ukraine.

To sell out the area east of the Kharkov-Mariupol-line to Russia for 100 mio. Euro would be a good deal
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Old 22.06.2014, 15:32
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Understandable indeed. BUT is it what his country needs ? At present, Western Ukraine subsidisies Eastern Ukraine.

To sell out the area east of the Kharkov-Mariupol-line to Russia for 100 mio. Euro would be a good deal
This is of course primarily true, but Eastern Ukraine needs to be subsidized mostly because it's being stripped to the bone by clans of Ahmetov, Yanukovich and others. One of the many telling examples is how Yanukovich/Ahmetov managed to turn nuclear power generation industry in Ukraine into a losing money business (a hard thing to do for anyone even slightly familiar with nuclear energy!) - by buying its generated energy very cheaply and by restricting its output, in order to allow Ahmetov's controlled coal power plants to sell their much "dirtier" coal energy at much higher price.

And it is just one of the many many schemes. So Western Ukraine is more "honest"/less corrupted at the moment, but Eastern Ukraine is more "heavyweight" and so would possibly have better potential to grow if the Governemnt can manage to take control over that region from Ahmetov's and others hands (an exteremly hard thing to do, and one of the reason why the current war is happening as it is quite clear that Ahmetov is in agreement with Russia and Yanukovich).

To me though, the much bigger point is that even in Eastern Ukraine the majority of people are still pro-Ukrainian and don't want to be under Russia nor one of the pointless "republics" at all, so it would be an enormous betrayal if the Government "gives up" that region without absolute need, and this would also massively discredit the Government and the Ukraine..

Just my 2 cents.
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  #650  
Old 23.06.2014, 06:59
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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This is of course primarily true, but Eastern Ukraine needs to be subsidized mostly because it's being stripped to the bone by clans of Ahmetov, Yanukovich and others. One of the many telling examples is how Yanukovich/Ahmetov managed to turn nuclear power generation industry in Ukraine into a losing money business (a hard thing to do for anyone even slightly familiar with nuclear energy!) - by buying its generated energy very cheaply and by restricting its output, in order to allow Ahmetov's controlled coal power plants to sell their much "dirtier" coal energy at much higher price.

And it is just one of the many many schemes. So Western Ukraine is more "honest"/less corrupted at the moment, but Eastern Ukraine is more "heavyweight" and so would possibly have better potential to grow if the Governemnt can manage to take control over that region from Ahmetov's and others hands (an exteremly hard thing to do, and one of the reason why the current war is happening as it is quite clear that Ahmetov is in agreement with Russia and Yanukovich).

To me though, the much bigger point is that even in Eastern Ukraine the majority of people are still pro-Ukrainian and don't want to be under Russia nor one of the pointless "republics" at all, so it would be an enormous betrayal if the Government "gives up" that region without absolute need, and this would also massively discredit the Government and the Ukraine..

Just my 2 cents.
To realize that lots of ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine are in favour of Ukraine showed it quite drastically to me that I had no clue about regional realities overthere, But I have to say that Ukraine may have to say about those EastUkraine areas what Konrad Adenauer said about Schlesien/Silesia, Pommern/Pommerania and Ost-Preussen /EastPrussia in about 1957 those areas are gone
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  #651  
Old 23.06.2014, 10:24
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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But I have to say that Ukraine may have to say about those EastUkraine areas what Konrad Adenauer said about Schlesien/Silesia, Pommern/Pommerania and Ost-Preussen /EastPrussia in about 1957 those areas are gone
Europe+US could impose sanctions against Russia making it another Iran. That this doesn't happen now when it would have been much more effective than with the Soviet Union then is a real shame.
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Old 24.06.2014, 01:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Looks like the pro-Russian people plan to release the OSCE observers, positive sign.
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  #653  
Old 25.06.2014, 12:51
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Putin has cancelled the permission for Russian troops to enter Ukraine; this will put pressure on the separists in the East who thought he would ride in and save them.
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Old 25.06.2014, 14:03
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Putin has cancelled the permission for Russian troops to enter Ukraine; this will put pressure on the separists in the East who thought he would ride in and save them.
Unfortunately, this positive sign has very little practical relevance IMO - Putin's plan was/is not to bring regular Russian troops into Ukraine, but to continue to send there "volunteers" and weapons, with which is having success - the number of pro-Russian militants/tanks/artillery and other heavy weapons in Eastern Ukraine is currently highest it's ever been, and is continuing to grow daily.

So nobody should really be getting fooled by the usual cheap tricks of Putin. These are all fake compromises from his side while he continues with his real plans. These "compromises" also allow Western governments to pretend that they are achieving something, as let's be honest - their sanctions have been extremely weak so far (though I can definitely understand the reasons behind the weak response). To add insult to injury, Russia is also on course to get its warships from France.

Also, if needed, Putin can get that "permission" back within one day - for an example see how quickly he arranged all these "permissions" when annexing Crimea.

Same with the OSCE observers - nobody was really going to hurt them. It is almost guaranteed that they were captured on direct orders from Kremlin, and released to show that Kremlin cooperates in achieving "peace" in the region, and also that it has "influence" on militants.

Incidentally, things point to the fact that a strong position from Switzerland would definitely help to get Putin to back off, as this is where the billions of Putin and Putin-controlled companies probably are

Just my 3 cents (notice the increase since last time )
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Old 25.06.2014, 23:43
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Unfortunately, this positive sign has very little practical relevance IMO - Putin's plan was/is not to bring regular Russian troops into Ukraine, but to continue to send there "volunteers" and weapons, with which is having success - the number of pro-Russian militants/tanks/artillery and other heavy weapons in Eastern Ukraine is currently highest it's ever been, and is continuing to grow daily.

So nobody should really be getting fooled by the usual cheap tricks of Putin. These are all fake compromises from his side while he continues with his real plans. These "compromises" also allow Western governments to pretend that they are achieving something, as let's be honest - their sanctions have been extremely weak so far (though I can definitely understand the reasons behind the weak response). To add insult to injury, Russia is also on course to get its warships from France.

Also, if needed, Putin can get that "permission" back within one day - for an example see how quickly he arranged all these "permissions" when annexing Crimea.

Same with the OSCE observers - nobody was really going to hurt them. It is almost guaranteed that they were captured on direct orders from Kremlin, and released to show that Kremlin cooperates in achieving "peace" in the region, and also that it has "influence" on militants.

Incidentally, things point to the fact that a strong position from Switzerland would definitely help to get Putin to back off, as this is where the billions of Putin and Putin-controlled companies probably are

Just my 3 cents (notice the increase since last time )


Thanks, interesting points.


In theory Ukraine has control of the air so should be superior militarily but the other side seem to be pretty good at shooting down aircraft.


It is always hard to fight against groups who are not regular military who do not wear recognisable uniforms and they can also hide in the civilian population.


Maybe if Ukraine gets good satellite info from the US then they can select and hit suitable targets but probably that is over simplified?


About "Same with the OSCE observers ......... to show that Kremlin cooperates in achieving "peace" in the region, and also that it has "influence" on militants."
Influence on the militants would be more convincing if the Kremlin would stop them kidnapping the OCSE observers in the first place.


Overall Putin plays this very cleverly.


I find it strange that most of the leaders of the separist groups are Russian citizens; does not look like an Ukranian led separation'
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Old 27.06.2014, 07:21
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Europe+US could impose sanctions against Russia making it another Iran. That this doesn't happen now when it would have been much more effective than with the Soviet Union then is a real shame.
REALPOLITIK means not to get into silly sanctions , which would not help anybody anywhere

You mention Iran. The educational and technological standards in Iran are below those of Ukraine but Iran managed
- to modify and develop US helicopters into new helis
- to produce the Antonov AN-140 under licence as Iran-140
- to produce advanced versions of US figher-airplanes
- to improve its public transport system dramatically
- to continue oil exports
- to exand industry
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Old 30.06.2014, 13:42
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Seems France is continuing with the sale of warships to Russia; so much for sanctions.
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Old 02.07.2014, 01:43
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Thanks, interesting points.
In theory Ukraine has control of the air so should be superior militarily but the other side seem to be pretty good at shooting down aircraft.
Thank you. Yes, air control is the biggest advantage of the Ukrainian forces at the moment, as pro-Russians have no aircrafts at all. They do have modern anti-aircraft weapons as you mentioned, but itisn't easy to shoot down a modern jet fighter (as it has muliple "traps" that it can release to divert the rockets). Not so much with the helicopters or transport planes though, of which Ukraine has already lost 10+, with heavy life loss..

Still, I'm sure Russia would love to equalize the air control, but it can't do it without openly declaring a war. Hopefully, it won't happen..

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It is always hard to fight against groups who are not regular military who do not wear recognisable uniforms and they can also hide in the civilian population.
Yes, this is a huge challenge, especially in the cities where the available options are very bad whichever way you look at them:
- heavy artillery/bombing - similar to what Russia did in Chechnya, or to what happened in WWII. This is something I believe Ukraine will never do, given the number of cities and the size of the population involved
- trying to free it house after house and street after street - which will lead to huge losses in the army
- long time siege - which will lead to a humanitarian crisis.

My personal hope is that the combination of successful operations by Ukrainian forces + withdrawal of some support by Russia (which could happen if some heavy sanctions are applied) + rise of the partisan war in the occupied cities (which is happening, but very slowly) will lead to the situation when the Russian militants will begin to leave Ukraine. The remaining local ones will quickly become a non-issue as they can't exist w/o Russia's support.

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Maybe if Ukraine gets good satellite info from the US then they can select and hit suitable targets but probably that is over simplified?
They do it quite effectively even without satellites, as there are lots of intelligence tips/reports from local people and their own intelligence. Also, the bases of separatists are quite predictable. The problem is that they often hold hostages in the same buildings, and more and more try to make their bases in or near builtup/heavily populated areas.

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Overall Putin plays this very cleverly.
Agree. Especially given the "straighforwardness" of previous wars. But still, it is quite easy to see what he is trying to achieve and how.

For example, do you know what is his latest trick to supply the separatists with tanks, artillery and other heavy weapons? Russian forces now just "leave" them on the roads in Russia a few km away from the border, and then the separatists just "hijack" them and bring them into Ukraine Multiple eyewitnesses who travelled in the area have reported seeing "abandoned" tanks etc. on the roads. Yes, this is clever and something completely new, but on the other hand whom is this really going to fool..

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I find it strange that most of the leaders of the separist groups are Russian citizens; does not look like an Ukranian led separation'
Yes, good point - and this is exactly my opionion, too. It is true that in some parts of Eastern Ukraine there is a sizable enough population with mild anti-Ukrainian sentiment, but they would never take up the weapons on their own - the whole idea would have seemed mad even half a year ago! It was all fully orchestrated from Russia - militants/provocators/leaders etc. were brought in, and local sympathizers were stirred up, armed and used in the full sense of that word. This is why I believe that if Russia withdraws its "help", the crisis will die down very quickly (though the wounds from it will take very long time to heal).
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Old 02.07.2014, 02:16
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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REALPOLITIK means not to get into silly sanctions , which would not help anybody anywhere

You mention Iran. The educational and technological standards in Iran are below those of Ukraine but Iran managed
- to modify and develop US helicopters into new helis
- to produce the Antonov AN-140 under licence as Iran-140
- to produce advanced versions of US figher-airplanes
- to improve its public transport system dramatically
- to continue oil exports
- to exand industry
I agree, sanctions are very bad for everyone involved (especially as Russia hinted that it may decide to nationalize all foreign businesses in Russia, and its banks may decide not to pay off their foreign debts - smth like 600 billion I belive - which could lead to the next financial crisis).

But I do believe that Russia is more fragile than Iran and so is more susceptible to sanctions, for many many reasons - e.g., it doesn't have the same religion-fueled resolve to fight the West as Iran has. IMO, all indication point that Putin is quite afraid of strong sanctions, which means they can and should be used as a strong negotiation tool.
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Old 02.07.2014, 02:30
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I agree, sanctions are very bad for everyone involved (especially as Russia hinted that it may decide to nationalize all foreign businesses in Russia, and its banks may decide not to pay off their foreign debts - smth like 600 billion I belive - which could lead to the next financial crisis).

But I do believe that Russia is more fragile than Iran and so is more susceptible to sanctions, for many many reasons - e.g., it doesn't have the same religion-fueled resolve to fight the West as Iran has. IMO, all indication point that Putin is quite afraid of strong sanctions, which means they can and should be used as a strong negotiation tool.
There is not much of a "religion based resolve" and not much of an intention to "fight the West" . There however is a pragmatist resolve to muddle through and to solve problems step by step

In regard to Russia, sanctions may vitalize reserves of that nation to resist Western pressures
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