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  #6701  
Old 29.05.2022, 11:36
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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"Support for Kyiv’s continued defiance among some west European allies appears to be slipping."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-turn-the-tide

looks like some of the west are already getting ready to discard ukraine.
Awful. They fear the public focus shifting to gas prices and empty shelves, and are naive enough to believe that a "ceasefire" would solve anything. Shortsigthedness when it needed vision and leadership.
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Old 29.05.2022, 12:10
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Awful. They fear the public focus shifting to gas prices and empty shelves, and are naive enough to believe that a "ceasefire" would solve anything. Shortsigthedness when it needed vision and leadership.
Oh and of course Putin smells this and will increase his demands. The Russians seem to make a bit of progress in the Donbas, bet on emerging cracks in the West and have zero interest in negotiating at all.
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  #6703  
Old 29.05.2022, 12:37
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Awful. They fear the public focus shifting to gas prices and empty shelves, and are naive enough to believe that a "ceasefire" would solve anything. Shortsigthedness when it needed vision and leadership.
that as well as the general weakness that defines western leadership.
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  #6704  
Old 29.05.2022, 12:52
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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that as well as the general weakness that defines western leadership.
The US, Poland, the Baltic states, Finland, Sweden, Australia etc. show good leadership here. Heck, even BoJo. It is the current leadership in Germany, France and Italy that is the concern.

Last edited by komsomolez; 29.05.2022 at 13:48.
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  #6705  
Old 29.05.2022, 14:55
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The US, Poland, the Baltic states, Finland, Sweden, Australia etc. show good leadership here. Heck, even BoJo. It is the current leadership in Germany, France and Italy that is the concern.
Hmm! US, Poland, Baltikum, Sweden, Australia etc seem to be bellicose and bent on wrecking Russia by whatever means possible. Germany, France and Italy want the fighting and the dying to stop. Who is in the right?
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  #6706  
Old 29.05.2022, 16:13
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Hmm! US, Poland, Baltikum, Sweden, Australia etc seem to be bellicose and bent on wrecking Russia by whatever means possible. Germany, France and Italy want the fighting and the dying to stop. Who is in the right?
It's not about wrecking Russia.
It's about neutralising permanently the bully (meaning Russia's abominable government).
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  #6707  
Old 29.05.2022, 16:26
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Germany, France and Italy want the fighting and the dying to stop.
Isn't this a bit naive? The only way to stop the fighting with an aggressor who does not want to negotiate is surrender.

The way Scholz is delaying the delivery of weapons is disgusting. He never wanted to deliver any, his party never wanted to deliver any and he gave in to pressure from the allies, his two coalition partners and the CDU.
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Old 29.05.2022, 17:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Isn't this a bit naive? The only way to stop the fighting with an aggressor who does not want to negotiate is surrender.

The way Scholz is delaying the delivery of weapons is disgusting. He never wanted to deliver any, his party never wanted to deliver any and he gave in to pressure from the allies, his two coalition partners and the CDU.
Agree with you there. However what you have to understand is the impossible dilemma the German government has, it‘s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Ever since WWII Germany hat at least tried to be a non militaristic nation, not always successful, but good enough. Sending weapons to a country at war goes against all laws and is unconstitutional. To do so is a criminal act and a person or government that sends weapons into a warzone from German territory could face prosecution. That is the dilemma Scholz is facing.
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Old 29.05.2022, 17:38
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Agree with you there. However what you have to understand is the impossible dilemma the German government has, it‘s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Ever since WWII Germany hat at least tried to be a non militaristic nation, not always successful, but good enough. Sending weapons to a country at war goes against all laws and is unconstitutional. To do so is a criminal act and a person or government that sends weapons into a warzone from German territory could face prosecution. That is the dilemma Scholz is facing.
I don't think this is a legal issue.

I was travelling with friends from Germany recently and they were very much of the spirit "why should we be involved, you have to also understand the Russians, and now look at all the suffering and starvation this war will bring". Not saying they are representative, but it felt like they were craving to pretend this war never happened and there were no hard consequences.
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  #6710  
Old 29.05.2022, 17:39
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Agree with you there. However what you have to understand is the impossible dilemma the German government has, it‘s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Ever since WWII Germany hat at least tried to be a non militaristic nation, not always successful, but good enough. Sending weapons to a country at war goes against all laws and is unconstitutional. To do so is a criminal act and a person or government that sends weapons into a warzone from German territory could face prosecution. That is the dilemma Scholz is facing.
That may be part of it but I think there's more. Much more.

At least in the DACH countries the left has been the antiwar (and anti-anything-nuclear) group since after WW2, most of all the Greens (once they formed a political party in the 70ies). A red-green German government sending tanks and weapons to a warring region is tantamount to conservatives implementing communism.
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  #6711  
Old 29.05.2022, 17:51
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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That may be part of it but I think there's more. Much more.

At least in the DACH countries the left has been the antiwar (and anti-anything-nuclear) group since after WW2, most of all the Greens (once they formed a political party in the 70ies). A red-green German government sending tanks and weapons to a warring region is tantamount to conservatives implementing communism.
I think that the commitment issues Germany is having had to do with the anti- militaristic policies of the last, by now, almost eighty years. Getting Germany to conform with the „Zeitgeist“ would be like de-potty Training a Teenager.
And let’s face it, do you want a re-militarized Germany as the major power in Western Europe?
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Old 29.05.2022, 17:56
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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And let’s face it, do you want a re-militarized Germany as the major power in Western Europe?
A militarily potent Germany firmly embedded in NATO and co-leading a democratic Europe? Hell yeah.
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  #6713  
Old 29.05.2022, 18:12
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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And let’s face it, do you want a re-militarized Germany as the major power in Western Europe?
Really good question.

I think two things changed since WWII:
- Germany is in NATO
- They made real effort to kill "Übermensch" way of thinking. That makes the probability of accepting populism like the one coming from Adolf way smaller

If that is not making us feel secure about Germans, then what are we really saying? That they have some sick mindest coded in their DNA genotype? Well, now that would be antigermanism :P

And I'm saying that being Polish

Edit: I just hope that we as Europe wouldn't feel urge to solve problems with force. Strong military as a deterrent would be a good choice though.
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  #6714  
Old 29.05.2022, 18:21
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

I also believe there is a realistic chance the US will drop out of NATO by 2025 or at least become even more tired of defending Europe. I would like to see European nations develop a security framework that works for Europe against threats like Russia, China, mess in the Middle East and/or Africa. Institutioanlly, this might happen preferably through NATO rather than the EU.
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Old 29.05.2022, 18:36
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Really good question.

I think two things changed since WWII:
- Germany is in NATO
- They made real effort to kill "Übermensch" way of thinking. That makes the probability of accepting populism like the one coming from Adolf way smaller

If that is not making us feel secure about Germans, then what are we really saying? That they have some sick mindest coded in their DNA genotype? Well, now that would be antigermanism :P

And I'm saying that being Polish

Edit: I just hope that we as Europe wouldn't feel urge to solve problems with force. Strong military as a deterrent would be a good choice though.
I think that your "sick mindset" is very much encoded in our human DNA genotype, period!

Germany is in Nato that is very much true and Nato is an extension of US Außenpolitik. But as Komsomolez points out there is a very good reason to imagine that the US could withdraw from Nato. The question is who would fill that particular power vacuum? I can imagine that the UK would stay the apprehensive US puppet in Europe and leave a France troubled with internal strife to duke it out with a Germany re-discovering the bling of the military after spending 150 billion on re-arment.
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Old 29.05.2022, 18:38
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I also believe there is a realistic chance the US will drop out of NATO by 2025 or at least become even more tired of defending Europe. I would like to see European nations develop a security framework that works for Europe against threats like Russia, China, mess in the Middle East and/or Africa. Institutioanlly, this might happen preferably through NATO rather than the EU.
That European security network is exactly what Putin proposed in the Bundestag in 2001.
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  #6717  
Old 29.05.2022, 18:46
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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That European security network is exactly what Putin proposed in the Bundestag in 2001.
Maybe. But now only conceivable with Russia outside of it.

The UK will realize that from a defense perspective it is better off being aligned with Europe even if outside of EU. In case the US won't come to the defense of Europe, they certainly won't come to the defense of the UK. But the UK (and France) will probably not be ready to shoulder Europe's defense if Germany continues to be the non-factor they are today.
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  #6718  
Old 29.05.2022, 18:57
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Germany, France and Italy want the fighting and the dying to stop. Who is in the right?
Germany wanted to get back to normal getting cheap resources from Russia and France wants to continue selling arms to Russia (which they did after 2014 and French equipment was found used against Ukraine) and Macron wants to look like a big player to compensate for his... shortcomings.
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  #6719  
Old 29.05.2022, 18:57
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Maybe. But now only conceivable with Russia outside of it.

The UK will realize that from a defense perspective it is better off being aligned with Europe even if outside of EU. In case the US won't come to the defense of Europe, they certainly won't come to the defense of the UK. But the UK (and France) will probably not be ready to shoulder Europe's defense if Germany continues to be the non-factor they are today.
Sadly yes. in a perfect world I could have imagined a strong Europe, one which would have integrated Russia. Instead we have a European war and a Europe that is set to divide and become almost totally dependent on the US
THe only winner here is America and if it wasn´t their plan all along then they missed a bet.
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Old 29.05.2022, 23:26
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Sadly yes. in a perfect world I could have imagined a strong Europe, one which would have integrated Russia. Instead we have a European war and a Europe that is set to divide and become almost totally dependent on the US
THe only winner here is America and if it wasn´t their plan all along then they missed a bet.
They tried to "integrate" Russia after the fall of communism and USSR, but Russia never planned to get integrated into the West. Russia sees itself as a separate entity. Please understand this because your scenario is far away from reality.
If anything, Russia wanted to "integrate" us all...this war is their doing and of course USA takes advantages and strengthens their position in Europe. If you are such an admirer of Russia and despise America, maybe you should emigrate to Russia....I bet you'll be.....cured!

Last edited by greenmount; 29.05.2022 at 23:38.
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