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  #6861  
Old 08.06.2022, 10:54
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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yes the west has gotten too decadent and individualistic to go to war proper. thats why they need to use ukranians to do the job for them.
Oh yes, decadence and individualism are regressive counterrevolutionary forces.

The West does not feed us a 24/7 a grand narrative (fairy tale) of our path from a brutal past to a radiant future. So, wow can life in the West make sense if progress is not achieved thanks to our dear leader, the party and the collectivization of resources?

Oh, we are so screwed
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  #6862  
Old 08.06.2022, 10:59
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Instead of focusing on that what they do though.....and is it really the West's fault?
I think Russia has historically suffered from severe Schizophrenia. They have always wanted to be European and at the same time have despised and hated Europe like nobody else does. Ever since Sviatoslav I who was attacking the southern Slavs, through to today, Russia has always fought for access to the Mediterranean. It was warring with everyone in Europe who was opposing this ambition which it never got and this has bred resentment towards the "scheming" west as Russia sees this as some god-given right.

At the same time, ever since Peter the Great, Russia has been trying to westernize as it has been envious of the achievements of the west. They have been importing French chefs, German engineers and architects and British beer, etc for centuries.

This dualism is strong today as well and I don't think it will ever be resolved, the imperial ambition of Russia is part of their DNA and at the same time, the emulation of the west is as strong as ever.

The question would be how does the west limit their imperial ambition (hard power) while at the same time coax them more towards western values (soft power). It's clear that neither only hard power, nor only soft one would work, it will have to be some combination of both.
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  #6863  
Old 08.06.2022, 14:08
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

I personally just want this war to be over sooner than later and to mind their own business.
They've caused enough suffering. They don't need to "crush" anyone. They won't gain anything from this.
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  #6864  
Old 08.06.2022, 15:40
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Well, it looks like long-term occupation after "Russia has no interest in occupying Ukraine".

I guess the lines are more or less stable by now. Ukrainian resistance is arising and it is very expensive for Russia to keep the occupation. The US afforded 20 years of messing around in Afghanistan. How many years can Russia afford in Ukraine?

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  #6865  
Old 08.06.2022, 15:58
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I guess the lines are more or less stable by now. Ukrainian resistance is arising and it is very expensive for Russia to keep the occupation. The US afforded 20 years of messing around in Afghanistan. How many years can Russia afford in Ukraine?
Unfortunately, I think this is the wrong question. The question is how long can Ukraine sustain the occupation.
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  #6866  
Old 08.06.2022, 16:31
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Ukrainian forces may have to pull back in Sievierodonetsk, governor says
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ys-2022-06-08/
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  #6867  
Old 08.06.2022, 16:47
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Well, it looks like long-term occupation after "Russia has no interest in occupying Ukraine".

I guess the lines are more or less stable by now. Ukrainian resistance is arising and it is very expensive for Russia to keep the occupation. The US afforded 20 years of messing around in Afghanistan. How many years can Russia afford in Ukraine?

The Americans made the big mistake of not supplying Afghans with humanitarian aid, not connecting them to American cellular networks, nor offering American citizenship. The Russian occupants are much more insidious!
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  #6868  
Old 08.06.2022, 23:48
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Sweden will send Ukraine some AG90 heavy duty sniper rifles.
It uses so called multi-purpose ammunition, with a tungsten penetrator and an incendiary load. This round penetrates up to 70mm of armor, and is powerful enough to ignite diesel fuel.
Each round weighs more than 10 times as much as a 5.56 round.

The effective range is about 1 Km, mainly used to take out lightly armoured vehicles like supply trucks, supposed to shoot up to 30 rounds per minute.
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  #6869  
Old 09.06.2022, 01:27
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Sweden will send Ukraine some AG90 heavy duty sniper rifles.
It uses so called multi-purpose ammunition, with a tungsten penetrator and an incendiary load. This round penetrates up to 70mm of armor, and is powerful enough to ignite diesel fuel.
Each round weighs more than 10 times as much as a 5.56 round.

The effective range is about 1 Km, mainly used to take out lightly armoured vehicles like supply trucks, supposed to shoot up to 30 rounds per minute.
And Russia will supply Sweden with some Sarmats.

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  #6870  
Old 09.06.2022, 07:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Ukrainian soldiers in Donbas feel abandoned and outgunned
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/easter...sted-1.6278984

Now, under ceaseless bombardment and after immense casualties, some Ukrainian troops say they are feeling abandoned by their leadership — left to die in hopeless conditions. "No one here wants to hear the truth," said Nikita. "They just want the beautiful story of how Ukraine is united. But here, we're f--ked."
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  #6871  
Old 09.06.2022, 11:19
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

About 7K replies into the thread.....maybe it's time to go back to thread title?

World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Sadly, there are more than enough data from wars in the past and estimates from the current war. So, it's already above the median of war casualties since year 1812.

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Most wars will either be far less lethal or far more lethal than the median. The bottom 50 percent of wars have an average of about 2,900 battle deaths, while the top 50 percent have an average of 653,000, and it is effectively a coin-flip which half any given war will end up in. In Ukraine, after three months and with no end in sight, Western analysts estimate at least 20,000 fatalities, putting this war well into the top half of conflicts.
Also, very important to remember this Past performance is not indicative of future results. Full opinion piece in the link below

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One might argue that the statistical evidence tells us little about any given war, and we might have a much better idea as to the escalation risks in a given conflict than it might appear by looking at the entire dataset. No one thought the Falkland Islands War was going to engulf all of Europe. Skeptical American analysts were more concerned with the political ramifications for Margaret Thatcher should the counter-invasion fail and spent little, if any, time considering broader military implications. But did they know, or did they simply assume?

The Bush administration assumed that the Iraq War would be quick and produce few casualties. The Biden administration assumed the Afghan government could make the Taliban fight for every mile instead of collapsing before U.S. forces even finished pulling out. Saddam Hussein was convinced the United States would not intervene in his invasion of Kuwait. Kaiser Wilhelm II is often quoted as having said, in August 1914, that his soldiers “would be home before the leaves fall from the trees.” Russia thought its invasion of Ukraine would be a simple operation against a much weaker foe. It should be no surprise that the outcome of a war is hard to predict even in the most lopsided of circumstances: Consider how many wars have been lost by the aggressor!

What does all this tell us about the war in Ukraine? ...Not even four months in, we are already well into the upper 50 percent of that category (median of casualties). Where do we expect it to stop? Many analysts thought the war was unlikely to begin with. Once it began, the common wisdom was that Ukraine could not possibly hold off Russia for long. But the war is still ongoing and casualties continue to mount. In the deadlier half of wars, 10 percent have over a million battle deaths — what is stopping the Ukraine conflict from reaching that number?
https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/we...ine-seriously/
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  #6872  
Old 09.06.2022, 12:15
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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About 7K replies into the thread.....maybe it's time to go back to thread title?

World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
I guess the answer is "neither". Shall I close the thread now?
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  #6873  
Old 09.06.2022, 12:42
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

The Next Phase in Ukraine
https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/...se-in-ukraine/

but the time may come when we want an end to the war on what we consider tolerable terms while the Ukrainians want to fight on. In that circumstance, we shouldn’t hesitate to push the Ukrainians — our commitment has to be to our own interests, and the fact that the Ukrainians are almost completely dependent on our support should give us major influence on their deliberations.

i.e. it doesn't matter what ukrainians want, our interests will be prioritised.
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  #6874  
Old 09.06.2022, 12:56
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The Next Phase in Ukraine
https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/...se-in-ukraine/

but the time may come when we want an end to the war on what we consider tolerable terms while the Ukrainians want to fight on. In that circumstance, we shouldn’t hesitate to push the Ukrainians — our commitment has to be to our own interests, and the fact that the Ukrainians are almost completely dependent on our support should give us major influence on their deliberations.

i.e. it doesn't matter what ukrainians want, our interests will be prioritised.
Next paragraph describe the "own interests".

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If there is a redline we should prioritize, it is not the 2021 or 2013 borders of Ukraine but its survival as a sovereign state, free of dictation from Moscow, with direct trade links to the outside world, and capable of defending itself against future aggression. While restoring the pre-invasion borders is desirable as a war aim, it is not essential. Ukraine’s continued sovereignty is. Its continuance would mark a defeat for Putin’s maximal war aims and a warning against future Russian revanchist adventures.
But this is no surprise. We collaborate with others because our own interests sometimes align, not because we believe the same or have the same objective.
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  #6875  
Old 09.06.2022, 13:14
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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i.e. it doesn't matter what ukrainians want, our interests will be prioritised.
You understand that this is an opinion piece by journalists who are making the case against what Biden said, which is the opposite of your statement?
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  #6876  
Old 09.06.2022, 14:38
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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You understand that this is an opinion piece by journalists who are making the case against what Biden said, which is the opposite of your statement?
yes i do realise this. however ive contended for a long time that this a proxy war and it was never really about ukrainians interests, it was rather about using them.
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Old 09.06.2022, 15:44
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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yes i do realise this. however ive contended for a long time that this a proxy war and it was never really about ukrainians interests, it was rather about using them.
And the rest of us have contended it isn't.
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  #6878  
Old 09.06.2022, 16:12
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Separatist Donbas region issues death penalty to captured British, Moroccan fighters

June 9 (Reuters) - The supreme court of the Russian-backed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) issued death sentences on Thursday to two British men and one Moroccan who were captured while fighting for Ukraine, Russia's RIA Novosti news agency reported.

The three men said they will appeal the decision, Tass reported.

(Reporting by Reuters)
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  #6879  
Old 09.06.2022, 16:24
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Separatist Donbas region issues death penalty to captured British, Moroccan fighters

June 9 (Reuters) - The supreme court of the Russian-backed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) issued death sentences on Thursday to two British men and one Moroccan who were captured while fighting for Ukraine, Russia's RIA Novosti news agency reported.

The three men said they will appeal the decision, Tass reported.

(Reporting by Reuters)
Are these the ones who hold Ukrainian passports and have been in the regular forces before Putin invaded for no very good reason but his own paranoia and delusions of adequacy.
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  #6880  
Old 09.06.2022, 16:27
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Just saw this headline in The Times.

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Johnson made a Cossack as thanks for backing Ukraine
These are the same Cossacks that were involved in the pogroms?
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