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  #6961  
Old 13.06.2022, 08:53
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Wait, this is EXACTLY how the west treated Russia ever since 1991. The West was led by Germany's philosophy of trade will bring Russia closer to the western civilization and tame it. In the meantime, Russia has been invading smaller countries and projecting power far away from home. Why do you believe this failed strategy will somehow be successful now?

If anything, I think it will achieve the exact opposite. Treating putin as a "civilized adult" now would only embolden him to do even more damage.
Well, like I said, that option has long gone. Perhaps if the US had followed Germanyís strategy, maybe, who knows.
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  #6962  
Old 13.06.2022, 08:55
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Well, maybe that train has long left the stable. But instead of crapping on Russia from a great hight after the end of communism, perhaps treating Russia with respect and as equal would have gone a long way.
Perhaps even now there would be a way for dialogue if "The West" were to interact with Russia peacefully instead of regarding them as the enemy. You know, like adults in a civilized society. But thatīs not the way we roll is it?
The other way I see is to go all in and start a war with Russia and we would not want that either.
Dialogue with Russians citizens?
Well, of course. No one is born evil. If we don't do it, the history will repeat itself.


Dialogue with Putin and the cronies?
As you said - the train has long left the stable. How many more times do you want to try? They will just keep laughting at your naivety and keep bullying. Mad dogs get put down.

I just really hope that Russian citzens have that in them. This can also be a naivety from my side :/
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  #6963  
Old 13.06.2022, 08:57
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Well, like I said, that option has long gone. Perhaps if the US had followed Germany’s strategy, maybe, who knows.
And we are back to how this is all the fault of the West. The German level of wanting to "understand" Russia is truly beyond me.

Last edited by komsomolez; 13.06.2022 at 09:09.
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  #6964  
Old 13.06.2022, 09:04
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

If Putin is as sick as the rumors make him, whatever empire he would have built in his remaining time (assuming the West would have just shrugged-off the invasion), it would have quickly crumbled after his demise.


Ukraine as it currently exists is hardly viable as a country - and that's assuming that the money to rebuild it to even 50% of its pre-war state can be found, which I highly doubt. We're talking at least 300b - and currently, most of what is needed to physically rebuild a nation is covered by the "everything-shortage".


If this report is correct (which I assume it mostly is, because it cites CNN), EU and NATO would never let Ukraine in, but pressured Zelensky to act and talk like it was still on the table:


https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...asion-warnings


So, EU wanted to pull another "Turkey" by dangling a carrot and a stick at the same time. Probably fully aware of the damage it could do to Ukraine and assuming they could call Putin's bluff.


Mission accomplished.
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  #6965  
Old 13.06.2022, 09:56
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Well, like I said, that option has long gone. Perhaps if the US had followed Germanyís strategy, maybe, who knows.
Everything OK? One day the talk is about the war being a footnote in history, next week it's about US following Germany's leadership.

The war started as Brazil with nukes, now it's Spain with nukes in economic activity terms. The longer the 2nd chapter of the war lasts, the smaller and less relevant Russia becomes. Somehow, it's the responsibility of the rest of the world to ensure Russian government is happy. I guess that idea of selber schuld does not apply to Russia.
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  #6966  
Old 13.06.2022, 10:10
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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And we are back to how this is all the fault of the West. The German level of wanting to "understand" Russia is truly beyond me.
I didn't mean that this is the West's fault. The "fault" lies clearly with the Kremlin regime for trying to overcome it's internal shortcomings by wrecking smaller countries and killing hundreds of thousands. The West underestimated him, different countries for different reasons. The west has been mostly reactive to Russia, it was always putin with the initiative and the west was trying to figure how to react. I think its time that the west should be proactive rather than reactive and I mean post the Ukraine war
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  #6967  
Old 13.06.2022, 10:21
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Well, like I said, that option has long gone. Perhaps if the US had followed Germanyís strategy, maybe, who knows.
Germany trade with Russia in 2021 was around $60 billion, US trade with Russia was around $40 Billion so you cannot claim US had not followed Germanyís strategy
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  #6968  
Old 13.06.2022, 10:30
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Germany trade with Russia in 2021 was around $60 billion, US trade with Russia was around $40 Billion so you cannot claim US had not followed Germanyís strategy
True, now. But I was talking about the time 20 years ago.
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  #6969  
Old 13.06.2022, 11:13
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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True, now. But I was talking about the time 20 years ago.
So, in your view, how many years should trade flourish in order to "tame" Russia? Btw, even in the years with peak trade, Russia was still invading countries.
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  #6970  
Old 13.06.2022, 11:43
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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So, in your view, how many years should trade flourish in order to "tame" Russia? Btw, even in the years with peak trade, Russia was still invading countries.
Ok, Iíll accept that. But what other option apart from a military one is there?
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  #6971  
Old 13.06.2022, 12:25
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Dialogue with Russians citizens?
Well, of course. No one is born evil. If we don't do it, the history will repeat itself.


Dialogue with Putin and the cronies?
As you said - the train has long left the stable. How many more times do you want to try? They will just keep laughting at your naivety and keep bullying. Mad dogs get put down.

I just really hope that Russian citzens have that in them. This can also be a naivety from my side :/
Dialogue with the Russian citizens is vital, they're people like everybody else and they too suffer because of this absurd war. Their children too die playing "soldiers" at the orders of a psychopath.
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  #6972  
Old 13.06.2022, 14:00
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Ok, I’ll accept that. But what other option apart from a military one is there?
A military response doesn't mean you have to engage in warfare. As I mentioned earlier, equipping the Eastern-European states with better tech, moving some bases in the area and swarming the Black Sea with NATO vessels is enough to create a deterrent.


Quite a chilling report from Donbas. Long, but very insightful.

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  #6973  
Old 13.06.2022, 14:17
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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A military response doesn't mean you have to engage in warfare. As I mentioned earlier, equipping the Eastern-European states with better tech, moving some bases in the area and swarming the Black Sea with NATO vessels is enough to create a deterrent.


Quite a chilling report from Donbas. Long, but very insightful.
So basically a build up of weapons on the border to Russia, forcing Russia to build up their capabilities in response. Which triggers a response from NATO...etc, etc.
Ok then, letís go back to the Mexican standoff of Cold War.
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Old 13.06.2022, 14:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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So basically a build up of weapons on the border to Russia, forcing Russia to build up their capabilities in response. Which triggers a response from NATO...etc, etc.
Ok then, letís go back to the Mexican standoff of Cold War.
So, what do you suggest?
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  #6975  
Old 13.06.2022, 16:14
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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True, now. But I was talking about the time 20 years ago.
20 years ago? 2002. German trade with Russia was around $14Billion and the US with Russia was around $7Billion.
Edit: US was the fourth largest importer of Russian goods.

Failed goalpost move.
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Old 13.06.2022, 17:03
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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20 years ago? 2002. German trade with Russia was around $14Billion and the US with Russia was around $7Billion.
...
That's a lot of Vodka!
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Old 13.06.2022, 18:37
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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So, what do you suggest?
Well you donít want to shoot at them, and it would be political suicide to look soft...
Danegeld, good old Danegeld for the 21st century. Perhaps a tit for tat easing of sanctions with the big carrot being Northstream 2. Heard on B 5 Aktuell, that Exports of Russian gas and oil have risen 15% to Germany, France, India and China, bringing in stratospheric profits for Russia. Sanctions are a big joke. But easing them in return for concessions would allow Russia and The West to back off and save face. Same with Ukraine. A Marschall plan if they agree on the de-facto new border.
Or offer a 150 year lease on the Donbas. Something like that, Russia is preparing for a long war but this war canít go on for longer without nato involvements.
So thatís my Idea, what do you think?
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Old 13.06.2022, 18:45
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Well you donít want to shoot at them, and it would be political suicide to look soft...
Danegeld, good old Danegeld for the 21st century. Perhaps a tit for tat easing of sanctions with the big carrot being Northstream 2. Heard on B 5 Aktuell, that Exports of Russian gas and oil have risen 15% to Germany, France, India and China, bringing in stratospheric profits for Russia. Sanctions are a big joke. But easing them in return for concessions would allow Russia and The West to back off and save face. Same with Ukraine. A Marschall plan if they agree on the de-facto new border.
Or offer a 150 year lease on the Donbas. Something like that, Russia is preparing for a long war but this war canít go on for longer without nato involvements.
So thatís my Idea, what do you think?
So Russia is rewarded with territory, gets all sanctions lifted and the West pays for the damage they have done in Ukraine.

So what do you suggest we give Putin if he invades Estonia? Clearly he needs to be properly incentivized.
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Old 13.06.2022, 20:01
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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So Russia is rewarded with territory, gets all sanctions lifted and the West pays for the damage they have done in Ukraine.

So what do you suggest we give Putin if he invades Estonia? Clearly he needs to be properly incentivized.
Estonia is in Nato.

If you see any other option now would be the time to bring it to the UN. Because the window for a solution is rapidly closing.
I donīt know how you see the future, but the one I see is a civilization on the brink if all the hawks get their way.
At the moment we are living in the most peaceful time our civilization has ever known, but the writing is on the wall as more an more countries toy with "the Bomb" with existing arsenals all over the world being modernized and expanded at an alarming rate. The world is going to be multipolar with regional strongmen having big sticks.
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  #6980  
Old 13.06.2022, 21:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Fault (Russia's, the west's or anybody else's) is indeed a useless, and probably counterproductive, term in this context. Countries don't have friends, they have interests and (temporary) allies (which may differ depending on the issue). Russia has certain interests, as does Ukraine, the rest of Europe and the US. This couldn't be highlighted better than by the Rainer's zerohedge article. So far Russia's have been completely ignored, the result is this war.

The point is to find some version of common ground for the adversaries (like guaranteeing that Ukraine won't join Nato, but that bargaining chip has lost its value by now). Biden showed zero interest in that direction with his "Putin is a killer" and "Russia is not a superpower", and the empty encouragements in Zelinsky's directin, it left war as the only option once the problem was big enough for Russia. The lack of finding such common ground will be a Ukraine that's economically destroyed and completely depending on the west. The US won't mind at all, more influence for them.

Russia is closing in again on Charkiv, forbidding Ukraine from moving troops towards the Donbas for reinforcement. At the same time Russia keeps advancing in the Donbas, slowly but certainly, the completion of the tongs behind Lysychansk and Sevierodonetsk appears to be only a matter of time - and finally their conquest.

As it looks now the only question is, does Putin get the entire Donbas as one big heap of rubble or will parts of it still stand, and how many more lives this will cost on both sides. And what are the conditions of the outcome, it doesn't look like Ukraine will have too many bargaining chips left, its economy will be destroyed either way.
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