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  #7081  
Old 23.06.2022, 11:38
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Most concerning is the Russia-China-India alliance. With every day that Russia make ground, this alliance is emboldened, and a move on Taiwan is a when not if, and is increasingly likely to be sooner than later.

The Lithuania stand-off for me is a good thing. It may be the catalyst to bring NATO into the fight. Whilst Russia is dealing with an alternative set of facts, diplomacy is useless.

No, I am not an advocate for war, in fact the contrary. But the global world order is at a tipping point, and only military readiness will prevent it tipping the wrong way.
This is exactly what Putin wanted and hoped for all along. In principle, I could have agreed with a multipolar world but not when countries like Russia and China or even India get to have a slice of it. It is a matter of values and people who're advocating this nonsense while living their good lives in the West, precisely because of the Western values are the either very naive ones, extremely disingenuous or worse.

Russia claims is protecting the old order and values and somehow this is very appealing even to some of the conservatives in the West but all they do is following their own geopolitical agenda, uncompromisingly and ruthlessly as ever. I'm not pro-war either but they simply shouldn't win the war with Ukraine. Once they'll have their way now it will be a constant problem to keep them out of everyone else's business...or country.

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  #7082  
Old 23.06.2022, 11:44
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Restarting the NPP - or extending the last 3 - is not trivial technically or in terms of fuel rods. Also a drop in the bucket by now. So yeah, coal generation and gas rationing seems likely. Need to reactivate old mothballed coal plants though - most modern coal plants have been running many hours already in the last year.

I don't think this is the time for Schadenfreude against the Greens. They are in a difficult situation and surely cannot be made responsible for what they inherited. Habeck strikes me as a considered, sensible and - dare I say - honest guy in handling this.

That said, the Greens of course have always been anti-nuclear, and maybe even they now understand how stupid Merkel's decision in 2011 was.
Greens are totally at fault. Continually fighting against nuclear and leading to increased use of coal. Even now, they don't dare admit that they have been wrong and advocate for nuclear (even if it might be too late to 'save' nuclear power in Germany).

US, UK and EU have no coherent energy policy. Pushing to shelve fossil fuels with no viable plan for an alternative. Now the US is begging for oil companies to invest more while asking them to invest more for the short term but to move away from oil for the future - what planet are they on? They expect oil to invest billions to help the politicians out now that they reap the fruits of their failed energy policies only to lose money because they will have no profits from their investments in the future? Not a surprise that there are few takers.
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  #7083  
Old 23.06.2022, 11:51
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The companies responsible for the mothballed German nuclear plants are putting up a lot of resistance against reopening these.

Theoretically, you just need to load new fuel rods and they would start running again.
Of course, the companies involved have legitimate concerns over their liabilities for safety so claiming extensive checking and testing would be needed and a lack of skilled operational staff.
I doubt that nuclear will be restarted in Germany. Too much opposition, inability for Greens to admit they are wrong. Too much bureaucracy. Not enough time.
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  #7084  
Old 23.06.2022, 11:58
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Most concerning is the Russia-China-India alliance. With every day that Russia make ground, this alliance is emboldened, and a move on Taiwan is a when not if, and is increasingly likely to be sooner than later.
China would be suicidal now to attack Taiwan.

Militarily: Russia had Ukraine surrounded on 3 sides and launched a surprise attack with a very short distance over land to the capital with defenders unprepared and with limited military budget and equipment. China has to cross a lot of water to launch an amphibious assault on an island with mountainous terrain, few good landing spots against an enemy which has been preparing for such an attack for decades and has military and intelligence support from the US.

Economically: Russian economy has been hit even though they spent the last few years preparing and are somewhat economically isolated. Countries are even trying to limit essential purchases of energy and commodities that Russia supplies even though it is self-harm. China is much more linked to the world economy and would suffer hugely if trade is cut. Unlike Russia, China just doesn't produce industrial raw materials that the world absolutely needs to buy. The world could quickly shift to alternatives for a lot of what is produced in China and sanctions could cripple China's economy (just see what limited sanctions have done to Huawei). Moreover, a China produces a lot of consumer goods that are susceptible to boycott.
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  #7085  
Old 23.06.2022, 12:32
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Economically: Russian economy has been hit even though they spent the last few years preparing and are somewhat economically isolated. Countries are even trying to limit essential purchases of energy and commodities that Russia supplies even though it is self-harm. China is much more linked to the world economy and would suffer hugely if trade is cut. Unlike Russia, China just doesn't produce industrial raw materials that the world absolutely needs to buy. The world could quickly shift to alternatives for a lot of what is produced in China and sanctions could cripple China's economy (just see what limited sanctions have done to Huawei). Moreover, a China produces a lot of consumer goods that are susceptible to boycott.
Yeah, the West will have to re-learn to manage without the two monsters they had created. We haven't always been so dependent on China's world production machinery (where they basically exported slavery) neither on Russia's cheap resources, at least not to the degree we have seen in the past decades.
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Old 23.06.2022, 12:44
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Yeah, the West will have to re-learn to manage without the two monsters they had created. We haven't always been so dependent on China's world production machinery (where they basically exported slavery) neither on Russia's cheap resources, at least not to the degree we have seen in the past decades.
Weaning off China‘s cheap production and Russia’s cheap resources means the end of cheap anything here in the west. Problem here is that the people in the west have been brought to the level where they can’t buy expensive. Civil unrest will be the best possible outcome when people can no longer afford the basics.
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Old 23.06.2022, 13:02
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Weaning off China‘s cheap production and Russia’s cheap resources means the end of cheap anything here in the west. Problem here is that the people in the west have been brought to the level where they can’t buy expensive. Civil unrest will be the best possible outcome when people can no longer afford the basics.
Construction materials and labour aren't from China, neither food nor medicine to a large degree. Not even cars. Well, time to restart these coal plant and we're covered for basics.
Look ma, no dirt cheap disposable intex swimming pool, one euro watches, flashlights and household appliances? Maybe it is time to get it repaired instead of "recycled"... Average age of passenger car fleet in Germany is 10year, but in some EU countries it is 17, and they still drive. 7 additional years to go without a new car, people will rebel :-)
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Old 23.06.2022, 13:58
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Construction materials and labour aren't from China, neither food nor medicine to a large degree. Not even cars. Well, time to restart these coal plant and we're covered for basics.
-)
Due to Green contstraints construction materials are not produced in the amount needed locally and labour, cheap labour, comes for most part from "the East" including a lot of Russians. Also Germany no longer operates coal mines so they buy over 50% from.... Russia with the US and Australia filling the remaining gaps, in theory they could take up the nutty slack (ahem!) but the infrastructure for such huge amounts that would be needed to replace Russian gas is simply not in place. Also because the coal plants are, or were due to be phased out they have not been modernized or even maintained.
Regardless which way you look at the problem, there is no easy solution and the near future for Germany is not looking good.
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Old 23.06.2022, 15:38
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Due to Green contstraints construction materials are not produced in the amount needed locally and labour, cheap labour, comes for most part from "the East" including a lot of Russians. Also Germany no longer operates coal mines so they buy over 50% from.... Russia with the US and Australia filling the remaining gaps, in theory they could take up the nutty slack (ahem!) but the infrastructure for such huge amounts that would be needed to replace Russian gas is simply not in place. Also because the coal plants are, or were due to be phased out they have not been modernized or even maintained.
Regardless which way you look at the problem, there is no easy solution and the near future for Germany is not looking good.
This is for me a reason why Western Europe needs to act militarily in a swift and united fashion to push Russia back to its borders. Otherwise, it is death by 1000 blackouts.
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  #7090  
Old 23.06.2022, 15:45
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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This is for me a reason why Western Europe needs to act militarily in a swift and united fashion to push Russia back to its borders. Otherwise, it is death by 1000 blackouts.
You are talking about a direct Nato-Russia conflict that can only end with nuclear boogaloo.
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Old 23.06.2022, 16:32
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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You are talking about a direct Nato-Russia conflict that can only end with nuclear boogaloo.
Unlikely, as it's mutually assured destruction. In best case, the victor inherits a nuclear wasteland. Therefore I don't see a big risk of that unless an invasion across Russian borders occurs.
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Old 23.06.2022, 16:52
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

I believe one scenario if NATO get directly involved in fighting Russian troops, then Russia may decide to use a tactical nuke anyway - even if Russia's borders aren't violated.

Since the seem to consider Ukraine as part of Russia anyway...
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Old 23.06.2022, 17:46
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I believe one scenario if NATO get directly involved in fighting Russian troops, then Russia may decide to use a tactical nuke anyway - even if Russia's borders aren't violated.

Since the seem to consider Ukraine as part of Russia anyway...
I guess Russia could drop a few nukes on Ukraine and NATO could drop a couple of Belarus in exchange. Hopefully everybody would come to their senses and stop. At least it would prove the use of having these buffer states take the pain of war/nukes - as cold as it is to put it in those blunt terms.
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Old 23.06.2022, 17:51
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I guess Russia could drop a few nukes on Ukraine and NATO could drop a couple of Belarus in exchange. Hopefully everybody would come to their senses and stop. At least it would prove the use of having these buffer states take the pain of war/nukes - as cold as it is to put it in those blunt terms.
What a cool plan. What could go wrong?
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Old 23.06.2022, 20:35
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Construction materials and labour aren't from China, neither food nor medicine to a large degree. Not even cars. Well, time to restart these coal plant and we're covered for basics.
Look ma, no dirt cheap disposable intex swimming pool, one euro watches, flashlights and household appliances? Maybe it is time to get it repaired instead of "recycled"... Average age of passenger car fleet in Germany is 10year, but in some EU countries it is 17, and they still drive. 7 additional years to go without a new car, people will rebel :-)
And no shopping trips to NY, weekly city breaks, and and and. According to some EFers I have probably lived and still live like a pauper!

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I guess Russia could drop a few nukes on Ukraine and NATO could drop a couple of Belarus in exchange. Hopefully everybody would come to their senses and stop. At least it would prove the use of having these buffer states take the pain of war/nukes - as cold as it is to put it in those blunt terms.
That is totally inappropriate even for EF's standards.

Last edited by greenmount; 23.06.2022 at 20:49.
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  #7096  
Old 23.06.2022, 21:49
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I don't think this is the time for Schadenfreude against the Greens. They are in a difficult situation and surely cannot be made responsible for what they inherited. Habeck strikes me as a considered, sensible and - dare I say - honest guy in handling this.
They didn't inherit it, they created the situation. Over time of course.

It started at around 2005 when they came to power for the first time. That's when the push for solar energy with the subsidies started. While that was the logical interpretation of the election results, it's nonetheless their own doing. As usual Merkel was leading from behind when she ordered the NPP shut down of the NPPs in the wake of Fukushima, following the path that had been laid out and prepared for decades. The result is by far the highest power prices in Europe (coupled with negative spot prices during summer peaks) for at least a few years, before the recent events even started to take effect.

What's happening now is yet again a continuation of the same path. Except now, there are no more alternative sources available to draw from. The increased use of coal for instance was predicted quite a few years ago, but the ideology didn't permit listening thus those voices got ignored.

The Green's aim is a good one, but once you start to ignore reality and stick your head in the sand you're asking for problems, even more so when your'e a political party with massive power. The result are situations like we have today. And that in an industry where planning cycles span decades, not quarters.

Of course it takes an extended time to restart a NPP, let alone a multitude.
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Old 23.06.2022, 21:49
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I guess Russia could drop a few nukes on Ukraine and NATO could drop a couple of Belarus in exchange. Hopefully everybody would come to their senses and stop. At least it would prove the use of having these buffer states take the pain of war/nukes - as cold as it is to put it in those blunt terms.
Perhaps we are due for a tactical nuclear exchange, the last use is almost out of living memory and humans tend to forget. Maybe it will bring our self destructive mind to an end
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Old 23.06.2022, 22:04
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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This is for me a reason why Western Europe needs to act militarily in a swift and united fashion to push Russia back to its borders. Otherwise, it is death by 1000 blackouts.
It's always interesting to see people argue for war who are highly likely not among those who will die or get maimed and traumatised.

Those calls simply lack credibility. Unless you volunteer, which would beg the question what you're still doing here in safe CH.
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Old 23.06.2022, 22:17
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Once they'll have their way now it will be a constant problem to keep them out of everyone else's business...or country.
Another country came to my mind while I was reading this sentence.
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Old 23.06.2022, 23:47
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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It's always interesting to see people argue for war who are highly likely not among those who will die or get maimed and traumatised.

Those calls simply lack credibility. Unless you volunteer, which would beg the question what you're still doing here in safe CH.
Exactly what I felt when I read the comment about dropping nukes on UA and Belarus.
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