Expected by who?

by me.

Unexpectedly positive report on the success of the Ukraine HIMARS rockets from Ivor Girkin, a self-described Russian nationalist, who was charged by Ukrainian authorities with terrorism.
He has been sanctioned by the European Union for his leading role in the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine

Satellite photos are showing a much reduced volume of Russian artillery strikes over the front line. Ukrainians claim this is due to their successful attacks on Russian supply lines, the Russians say this is a planned pause for their forces to rest and recuperate. Probably we will know by August which is nearer the truth.

This will be the first time for many Russian soldiers to leave the front. I wonder how many will want to return? This is a special operation, not a war so they are not obliged to fight.

Ukraine war forcing China to rethink ‘how and when’ it may invade Taiwan, CIA chief says https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...cia-chief-says

Not surprising as Russia was always classed in the top three armies worldwide and look what Ukraine did to them with mostly Soviet-era weapons, Taiwan has more modern armaments including Abrams tanks on order.

Lots of rumours about Russian soldiers refusing to fight anymore. It is a special operation, not a war so they can simply resign and the worst they can suffer is a dishonourable discharge, it is not classed as desertion.

I thought this was just propaganda but now some Russian military groups are putting up "Boards of Shame" with the names of such soldiers to discourage others. This might have the opposite effect when soldiers see how many of their colleagues have jumped ship and then think "what a good idea".

I can believe that "denazifying" Ukraine is not a goal that many people are willing to die for.

Would be the ultimate irony if the Russian invasion faded away due to a lack of troops.

Let us hope the Russians keep to the agreement.

I wonder what they were promised to make them give up this very strong card they held.

There is reporting that there are two agreement, one with Ukraine, Turkey and the UN, and another with Russia, Turkey and the UN. Apparently this story is just breaking.

I would not be that convinced.

Don't forget the brainwashing, lots of Russians have been brainwashed and see nazis everywhere! (and that not from yesterday)
And of course there are monetary incentives for the poorer ones.

When those who have the money to avoid the war, whilst agreeing that Russia needs to stay the great power, will be drafted....then we'll have the end of the war.

And less than a day into the grain export deal, Russia shoots a few missiles at the port of Odessa, one of three Ukrainian ports from where grain can be exported.

Just a reminder for the people here who think we should make a deal with Putin so we can have gas supply secured.

I think Erdogan had a significant contribution to this agreement (let's give credit where credit is due) and we were all so happy to see reason winning over greed/stupidity/etc, but of course we forgot Russia may or may not respect what they actually sign...

Erdogan was always seeking ways to make himself relevant globally, this time he did a good job. Probably he will feel this Russian action has caused him to lose face and he will take it personally. Will he find a way to avenge that?

For example, he could close the Bosphorus to Russian commercial ships.

Or Putin ordered the Odessa strike to revenge the face loss Ergogan gave him in Tehran. Who knows, and at the end only results matter.

It feels like the next few months will be interesting, despite the calming down of media about the war (my kids asked me yesterday if the war was still on ...):

Russia doubles down and confirms ambition of regime change: https://tass.com/russia/1484207

UK MI6 assesses that Russian army' s wheels mught come off soon: https://us.cnn.com/2022/07/21/politi...ing/index.html

Conclusion: Not the time for talking, time for fighting. More weapons to Ukraine.

Yeah well, he's nostalgic about the long gone Ottoman Empire....
He's doing a lot of bad things internally but we need a pragmatic relation with Turkey. To answer your question: yes, honour/"respect" is a big deal in those parts of the world, but not even Erdogan will dare to close the Bosphorus, there are too many international agreements he'll have to step over..unfortunately.

I guess there will be more action by Rissiain winter. Frozen rivers must be much less difficult to cross against enemy fire.

Interesting perspective from a Yale history professor on how "Putin's rule is weakening". Not sure I have a view here, but I enjoyed the read.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...533770752.html

Good thread by Gen Hertling on number and capacity of HIMARS delivered by US to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/sta...e2w2laz_w&s=19

Winters are not really that harsh in Ukraine? I think rivers rarely freeze, not really enough to support men crossing over, not to mention vehicles or tanks. You need to go north of the polar circle to get that kind of winter... The ground might freeze and be easier to traverse fields with heavy vehicles, but around winter you'll have months of rain where pretty much everything that moves has to stay on paved roads. The begging of the conflict in February-march saw those kind of conditions...


Still 2-3 months until the rains come