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  #7261  
Old 21.08.2022, 18:38
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I read elsewhere that this could equally have been carried out by the FSB.
Yes, very unclear and no evident motives. Fun though. Apparently she was posting victory pictures from Azovstal recently.
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  #7262  
Old 21.08.2022, 20:17
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Yes, very unclear and no evident motives. Fun though. Apparently she was posting victory pictures from Azovstal recently.
Might also be extreme Russian factions infighting.

Possibly we may never know.
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  #7263  
Old 21.08.2022, 22:20
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Ex-Russian MP claims Russian partisans responsible for Moscow car bomb

Speaking in Kyiv, Ilya Ponomarev alleges bomb that killed daughter of Putin ally
was work of underground group
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  #7264  
Old 22.08.2022, 09:59
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Car bomb targeted at Russian "philosopher" and right-wing extremist Alexander Dugin kills his daughter in Moscow suburbs.

https://tass.com/emergencies/1496355

Hits are coming closer to home, it appears.
That's organized crime style.
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Old 22.08.2022, 12:19
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Russian army causes deliberately a nuclear accident in Zaporizhzhia -> nuclear cloud enters a NATO country -> valid ground of invoking the Article 5?
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  #7266  
Old 22.08.2022, 13:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Russian army causes deliberately a nuclear accident in Zaporizhzhia -> nuclear cloud enters a NATO country -> valid ground of invoking the Article 5?

I'm quite confident that should a nuclear accident happen in Ukraine, NATO will take measures to ensure the safety of its neighboring countries


But I'd rather we all avoid another nuclear accident, thank you. The mess is already big enough as it is now
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  #7267  
Old 22.08.2022, 13:49
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Russian army causes deliberately a nuclear accident in Zaporizhzhia -> nuclear cloud enters a NATO country -> valid ground of invoking the Article 5?
That may simply be intended to increase Russia's potential costs.

Flashback: When Biden said last year that the US wouldn't get directly involved he removed that variable from Putin's assessment, reducing his risks and maximum potential costs. Judging from the POV of preventing the invasion that was a mistake, but of course it may have been a calculated move to increase the likelihood of an invasion.

This might be a similar move, albeit in the opposite direction.
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  #7268  
Old 22.08.2022, 19:10
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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That may simply be intended to increase Russia's potential costs.

Flashback: When Biden said last year that the US wouldn't get directly involved he removed that variable from Putin's assessment, reducing his risks and maximum potential costs. Judging from the POV of preventing the invasion that was a mistake, but of course it may have been a calculated move to increase the likelihood of an invasion.

This might be a similar move, albeit in the opposite direction.
Could you elaborate on the "opposite direction"?
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  #7269  
Old 22.08.2022, 20:45
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Could you elaborate on the "opposite direction"?
Before: remove Nato potentially reacting with military from the equation.
Now: add back Nato potentially reacting with military to the equation.

The possibility may be slim (or not) but anything other than zero is relevant.
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  #7270  
Old 22.08.2022, 21:05
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nati..._Army_(Russia)

Here we go! I really hope that is the beginning of the end.
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  #7271  
Old 22.08.2022, 21:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nati..._Army_(Russia)

Here we go! I really hope that is the beginning of the end.
Count me as skeptical.
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  #7272  
Old 22.08.2022, 22:45
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Before: remove Nato potentially reacting with military from the equation.
Now: add back Nato potentially reacting with military to the equation.

The possibility may be slim (or not) but anything other than zero is relevant.
I was toying around with the thought of establishing direct causality, which could be sold plausibly to the general public. I.e. an accident which is not an accident, as potential damage to NATO countries was known / the risk(s)calculated and the outcome (nuclear contamination) is not caused by the non-accident, but directly by those, who gave the go-ahead to fire the bombs.

Not that I think any of this needs to be sold, at least not to those of at the bottom of the food chain. 🤓
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  #7273  
Old 23.08.2022, 00:08
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I was toying around with the thought of establishing direct causality, which could be sold plausibly to the general public. I.e. an accident which is not an accident, as potential damage to NATO countries was known / the risk(s)calculated and the outcome (nuclear contamination) is not caused by the non-accident, but directly by those, who gave the go-ahead to fire the bombs.

Not that I think any of this needs to be sold, at least not to those of at the bottom of the food chain. 🤓
Are you talking about some new version of a Tomkin incident?
I find that implausible, a no-fly zone would have accomplished the same.
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  #7274  
Old 23.08.2022, 07:56
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I was toying around with the thought of establishing direct causality, which could be sold plausibly to the general public. I.e. an accident which is not an accident, as potential damage to NATO countries was known / the risk(s)calculated and the outcome (nuclear contamination) is not caused by the non-accident, but directly by those, who gave the go-ahead to fire the bombs.

Not that I think any of this needs to be sold, at least not to those of at the bottom of the food chain. 🤓
Zaporizhzhia uses PWR reactors which are inherently much safer than those used in Chernobyl plus a lot of automated safety features have been added over the years so an "accident" would be difficult to fabricate.
Realistically the Russians would need to set explosive charges at sensitive points like the steam generation tubes and should evacuate their troops to a good distance down wind before firing.
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  #7275  
Old 23.08.2022, 08:40
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Zaporizhzhia uses PWR reactors which are inherently much safer than those used in Chernobyl plus a lot of automated safety features have been added over the years so an "accident" would be difficult to fabricate.
Realistically the Russians would need to set explosive charges at sensitive points like the steam generation tubes and should evacuate their troops to a good distance down wind before firing.
And hope the wind doesn't start blowing towards the East.

Interesting times when meteorological stations become a military target!
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  #7276  
Old 23.08.2022, 11:49
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

It's interesting to look at Ventusky in that location. If most of the fallout occurs below 3000m, and the bulk is carried to 9000m, Russia could have some unpleasant results...Time to read up on the trajectories of exploded reactors.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=52.3;-28...erature-850hpa
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  #7277  
Old 23.08.2022, 21:57
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

anyone perchance think this terrorist attack was done by …….. I don‘t know Ukranians?
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  #7278  
Old 23.08.2022, 22:43
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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anyone perchance think this terrorist attack was done by …….. I don‘t know Ukranians?
Possible. It could also be Mossad. Or the Great Gremlin Conglomerate - which gives you a free choice of colour for your tinfoil hat.
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Old 23.08.2022, 23:08
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

I'm a gremlin from the Kremlin

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNi6B3V-RRY
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Old 23.08.2022, 23:39
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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anyone perchance think this terrorist attack was done by …….. I don‘t know Ukranians?
Anything is possible, but why?
There are many more valuable targets like the military, FSB, politicians &&&
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