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  #721  
Old 07.07.2014, 09:25
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

The rebels have retreated to Donetsk. Seems like that will be the next battle-field, the local population is fleeing.

Quote:
"The people are already very scared, and the spiritual condition here is not entirely good," the mayor, Alexander Lukyanchenko, told the Guardian. He said around 30,000 people had left the city since the start of the conflict, and many more had left on a kind of early summer holiday. In addition, 12% of small and medium-sized businesses had closed or significantly scaled back their work since the start of the year, and 8,207 employees had lost their jobs, he said. But such things are hard to count, and the real numbers may be much higher.

The centre of Donetsk, which was once packed with cars and pedestrians, is extremely quiet and empty. "We're walking around as if we were in a tiny village," said Vitaly Samarin, who owns a flat-rental business. "It used to be hard to find a place to park, now you can park wherever you want."
http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...crisis-donetsk

Quote:
Nina Yakovleva, a 45-year-old accountant and resident of Donetsk, said she expected nothing good to come of the convergence of rebels in the city.
“We are afraid that Donetsk will be left in ruins like Slovyansk,” she said. “The rebels have brought us war and fear.”
http://o.canada.com/news/world/world...ighting-480051


I guess if you are a pensioner or state employee, you need to leave to collect your salary from some other city anyway, as the rebels robbed the money that was sent by Kiev to them.

Quote:
Illegal armed formations have robbed a branch of PrivatBank in Donetsk and stolen UAH 15 million meant to pay pensions and salaries, spokesman of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Andriy Lysenko said.
"Yesterday at 1530, 40 armed terrorists robbed the building of PrivatBank branch in Voroshylovsky district in Donetsk. Breaking the door of the safe vault, the militants stole over UAH 15 million," he said at a briefing on Thursday.
According to Lysenko, this money had been transferred by the Ukrainian government to pay pensions and salaries to social sector employees.
http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/211982.html

Strange that there was no mention of this in the Russian media? And if the "DPR" is a legit gov't as they claim to be, then why are the "fascists" in Kiev still paying pensions to people in their "country"? Shouldn't the "DPR" be taking care of their own "citizens"?

The rebels also seem kind of blood-thirsty and not interested in political dialog, but requesting more armament from Russia (which implies that Russia is supporting them to begin with)

Quote:
"We will begin a real partisan war around the whole perimeter of Donetsk," Pavel Gubarev, the self-described governor of the Donetsk People's Republic, told the crowd. "We will drown these wretches in blood."
But he said the insurgents could easily die in Donetsk if Russia did not do more to help them.
http://www.chron.com/news/world/arti...ne-5602378.php
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  #722  
Old 07.07.2014, 12:25
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Russia seems to have now blocked access to all Ukrainian sites (i.e., with .ua domain) from inside Russia (in April they blocked some selective ones):

http://inforesist.org/v-rossii-bloki...ty-zhurnalist/
(sorry, the article is in Russian only, but you could possibly auto-translate)

Real "democracy" at work hehe

In other news (6th July, Moscow) - funerals of combatants of the Russian 45th Airborne Assault Troops regiment who died under "unknown circumstances" (i.e., in Ukraine):
http://inforesist.org/v-moskve-poxor...ozhennyx-v-ato
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  #723  
Old 07.07.2014, 13:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Here is a story about one soldier from Russia who died in Ukraine. Interesting story. Seems typical: out-of-work former soldier looking for a purpose in life. The process to join looks like it is handled in a professional way, accepting only former Russian soldiers with combat experience. The process of bringing the dead bodies back looks professional as well. Quietly using a military morgue. Looks like Russia is doing all it can to help the pro-Russian rebels, without leaving any traces of actual formal government support.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...russia-fighter

Also, here's an interesting angle about how Putin, who everyone seems to laude as the "chess player" and "judo master", may have painted himself into a corner. I was kind of wondering why he has been so quiet lately.

Quote:
Rebel leaders have pleaded with the Kremlin for military assistance, and some prominent Russian nationalists have publicly taunted Putin for cowardice. Such criticism could resonate with the broader Russian public, which has been heavily influenced by Russian state television's characterization of the Kiev government as a "fascist junta" that is killing Russian-speakers.


While the Kremlin has recently moved to tone down the rhetoric in the news media, many Russians — full of patriotic fervor after the annexation of Crimea in March — expect Putin to take resolute action.
In a sense, Putin has become a hostage of his own game of raising the stakes and fiery rhetoric, and it could be hard for him to soften his posture toward Ukraine without eroding his power.
https://news.yahoo.com/putin-under-p...180424732.html
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  #724  
Old 07.07.2014, 14:21
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Things get predictably worse in Donetsk - pro-Russian terrorists just blew up a railway bridge near Donetsk, right under the cargo train:

http://inforesist.org/terroristy-vzo...zovym-poezdom/
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  #725  
Old 07.07.2014, 15:32
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

As per the links posted "Poroshenko is facing strong public pressure for a quick military victory". His problem is that is probably not achievable in Donetsk.

As both Gaddafi and Assad found, it is hard to take over a town which is rigorously defended by relatively few people.

Poroshenko's best tactic would be to surround Donetsk and wait. The local people will get increasingly upset by the non payment of pensions and salaries to public officials and the consequent failures in public services plus the general effect of living in a war zone with limited supplies entering from outside.
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  #726  
Old 08.07.2014, 22:39
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Seems Putin got divorced today; unlike most of us he can afford it....
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  #727  
Old 09.07.2014, 07:55
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Seems Putin got divorced today; unlike most of us he can afford it....
So that he is slowly reducing liabilities
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  #728  
Old 09.07.2014, 11:37
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

I'm still amazed by the Russian media/government. This is from today's news:

Quote:
South-eastern Ukrainian protesters, who seek the country’s federalization and demand broader powers for their regions, have seized some of the government buildings in the region.


The Kiev authorities launched the so-called “antiterrorism operation” in eastern Ukraine. Russia, which does not recognize the de facto Ukrainian leaders, had condemned the operation, apparently aimed to crack down on Ukrainian federalisation supporters.
http://en.itar-tass.com/world/739646

They are still calling the armed Russian fomations who have taken Donetsk/Lugansk "Ukrainian protesters" and not recognizing the democratically elected Ukrainian president? (And ITAR-TASS is one of the more neutral Russian state media outlets, nowhere near as "Loony-Tune" as RT)
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  #729  
Old 10.07.2014, 13:00
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Some interesting bits from an interview with rebel commander Girkin/Steklov two days ago:
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.ch/201...kov-first.html

Quote:
Host: Ok, so we have coordination with Lugansk at the moment?

Igor Strelkov: There is nothing to brag about at the moment. Our coordination is weak, but it is progressively getting better.
The attack on a Donetsk police station a few days ago by Lugansk rebels also backs up this statement. Seems like the rebels have in-fighting and are not coordinated.

Quote:
Host: Our government, Pushilin, Borodai, as I understand it, they are right now in Moscow. Andrei Purgin is here. Negotiations are being conducted with Moscow?

Igor Strelkov: I cannot comment on that because I am involved in purely military-related issues right now.
To those who deny Russian involvement, please explain what the rebel commanders are doing in Moscow right now???

Quote:
Igor Strelkov: I would like to add one more thing, a few words. Unfortunately, and I will not hide it, the arrival to Donetsk of a fairly substantial number of militiamen, many of whom did not make it out of the trenches for weeks, led to several incidents. Thankfully, no one was harmed in the process.
..
And there were case whenthe fighters engaged in improper behavior toward the residents of the city. Or some of them may have imagined that everything is now permitted, since they are heroes.
If nobody was harmed, then why even mention it, Mr.Streklov?

...and kind of strange, how did a Ukrainian soldier captured by rebels wind up in a Russian jail?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...urnalists.html

Quote:
She said that Savchenko, a Ukrainian Army helicopter pilot, had been seized by “separatists” about a month ago and now she turned up in a Russian jail.
This obviously proves that there exists an apparent connection between Russia and the separatists.
http://en.itar-tass.com/world/739801
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  #730  
Old 24.07.2014, 17:23
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Seems the Ukraine Prime Minister resigned today so paving the way for new elections.

Interesting to see who votes and who they vote for.
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  #731  
Old 24.07.2014, 18:24
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Seems the Ukraine Prime Minister resigned today so paving the way for new elections.

Interesting to see who votes and who they vote for.
Since Ukraine is a parliamentary republic, the PM is assigned by a vote of parliament with approval of president. Basically this means that once they have a new coalition in parliament, they can sort out the PM question quite quickly.
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  #732  
Old 24.07.2014, 18:31
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

I suspect Iatsenyuk's resignation to be the price to pay for Poroshenko to get things moving in the east. That would be the best case scenario but not necessarily enough, we'll see. Internal issues the world will never ever hear about are also possible, but Iatsensyuk did enough to be understandably totally unacceptable to a big part of the population. He hindered definitely an hypothetical reconciliation. Poroshenko is a figure of unification so far, Iatsenyuk was too much involved in the division.

I liked the fact that Iatsenyuk was ready to do anything to westernize hence open Ukraine in social and moral issues, which can't be a bad thing in itself.

I disliked very much the fact that Iatsenyuk was ready to do really anything that he was easily manipulated from outside, which definitely was not a good thing. No thinking power of his own, even if he probably is less of a primitive macho homophobic neanderthalian than most men in the region, which can't be a bad thing either. (EDIT: Nobody knows enough about the Ukraine here to notice the sarcasm of this last sentence… it says it all.)
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  #733  
Old 24.07.2014, 22:49
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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... Iatsensyuk did enough to be understandably totally unacceptable to a big part of the population. He hindered definitely an hypothetical reconciliation. Poroshenko is a figure of unification so far, Iatsenyuk was too much involved in the division.
Not really sure what population you meant here.. it really looks like the population of Russia to me Yatsenyuk is well respected by many in the Ukraine, and hated in Russia - they actually applauded in the Russian Duma today when they learnt about Yatsenyuk's resignation. Which is telling - everything which is a bad news for Ukraine is considered a great news in Putin's Russia.

Also, everyone in the know is aware that there is no reconciliation realistically possible, as this is not a war between Western and Eastern Ukraine - this is a war of Russia against Ukraine. And the only "reconciliation" that Russia would accept (unless Putin is threatened with significant consequences) is the one when Ukraine gets battered and broken apart, and the Eastern part of it falls under control of Russia. The attempted armistice was just to show to the West who is the real villain here, since the West likes to play its usual "we are not sure yet... let's wait and see" game.

Another telling sign is that now the majority of pro-Russian militants are actually from Russia. Some local militants are of course killed by now, but they are not being replaced by local pro-Russians as many of them have sobered up quite a bit. I read reports from local people where they say that local pro-Russian militants don't know any more what is going on in their towns - they are only trusted with old weapons and tasks like guarding road blocks, and all military operations are now carried by Russian militants. So this is a hidden invasion by Russia, which becomes more and more open with every week.

As for reasons for Yatsenyuk's resignation - the main reason is that his government can't do much with the current parliament which was fully inherited from Yanukovich times and which now blocks all initiatives of the new government. This situation will now probably lead to early parliament re-elections in October, and many expect Yatsenyuk to come back into the government then. And the parliament surely needs to be cleaned/replaced as it is full of Yanukovich thiefs. If this doesn't happen by early re-elections, there may well be next quick Maidan as people's patience will not last forever.
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  #734  
Old 25.07.2014, 00:07
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Looks like things are escalating...

Quote:
Obama administration officials said Thursday that Russia is firing artillery from its own territory into Ukraine to hit Ukrainian military sites, pointing to escalating Russian involvement in the deadly conflict.



"This clearly is a military escalation," Pentagon spokesman Col. Steve Warren said, adding there is no question that Russian military -- as opposed to Russia-backed separatists -- are firing the shots.



State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf first made the accusation during a press briefing earlier Thursday. She also claimed Moscow is boosting its military shipments to pro-Russian separatists.



"We have new evidence that the Russians intend to deliver heavier and more powerful multiple rocket launchers to separatist forces in Ukraine and have evidence that Russia is firing artillery from within Russian to attack Ukrainian military positions," Harf told reporters.



She said the evidence derived from "human intelligence information" but declined to elaborate, saying it would compromise sources and methods of intelligence collection.



The Pentagon, though, confirmed her account, and said Russia has been firing artillery for several days now.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014...itary-targets/
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Old 25.07.2014, 00:19
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Faltrad: based on the red blob (and the associated comment) you gave me I assume I hurt your feelings (though the diligent moderator just told me that I shouldn't share your exact comment in public - I am currently waiting for clarification on why, and on how communication could be fair on this forum if you can adjust my reputation, and I can't adjust yours ).

As for your feelings - I think they suffered because my main focus is strictly on presenting accurate information about what is happening in the Ukraine, and your post is below "accurate" in my book. Hope you can improve on that, instead of adjusting your opponent's reputation and involving moderator's help.

And dear Moderator - I assume this is not Russia, so there is some form of freedom of speech on this forum, right?
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Old 25.07.2014, 00:34
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Looks like things are escalating...
Yep, this has been happening for at least 2 weeks now, though it was getting little attention as Ukraine doesn't want to provoke Russia and give it an excuse for a full-scale invasion, and so it's been trying to "ignore" it. Currently a few regiments of the Ukrainian army are spread around the southern "belt" along the Russian border trying to cut off terrorists supplies from Russia. They are being shelled from Russia every night, and they can't answer back for the above reason. Things are very difficult there right now, but they are still holding the ground..
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  #737  
Old 25.07.2014, 09:24
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Yep, this has been happening for at least 2 weeks now, though it was getting little attention as Ukraine doesn't want to provoke Russia and give it an excuse for a full-scale invasion, and so it's been trying to "ignore" it.
I've seen it mentioned in Ukrainian press releases, but wasn't sure if the claims were credible. But now that the US publicly says they have evidence to support the claims, it throws alot more weight behind it.

Obama doesn't seem eager to confront Russia militarily, and EU is doing all they can to turn a blind eye to this so their business exports won't be affected, so I wonder if this escalation will bring any support from the West aside from some more meaningless token sanctions against Russia?

If the West doesn't do anything, then Putin will probably go in to Ukraine with his full military and take Donestsk and Lugansk before the Ukrainian military encircles them and routes them out. Or else he will just continue supporting them from behind and the war will drag on endlessly.
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Old 25.07.2014, 09:36
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I've seen it mentioned in Ukrainian press releases, but wasn't sure if the claims were credible. But now that the US publicly says they have evidence to support the claims, it throws alot more weight behind it.

Obama doesn't seem eager to confront Russia militarily, and EU is doing all they can to turn a blind eye to this so their business exports won't be affected, so I wonder if this escalation will bring any support from the West aside from some more meaningless token sanctions against Russia?

If the West doesn't do anything, then Putin will probably go in to Ukraine with his full military and take Donestsk and Lugansk before the Ukrainian military encircles them and routes them out. Or else he will just continue supporting them from behind and the war will drag on endlessly.
Well I suppose that Putin has put himself in a difficult position. If he stops supporting the rebels then he cannot guarantee they will keep their mouths shut about his prior involvement. One could imagine the Alexander Khodakovsky (who leads the Vostok battalion) affair where he said the rebels had a BUK and then withdrew the statement was to put pressure on Putin to continue support?

The Russian people also have high expectations from Putin in Ukraine due to his propaganda.

I do not see how Putin can do anything other than invade East Ukraine sooner or later; he has too much to lose personally if he does not.
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Old 25.07.2014, 12:37
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Russia's central bank has unexpectedly raised its key interest rate today in a bid to stem inflation and support the currency as the country faces increasing economic pressure over its policies in Ukraine.

The bank said Friday it has lifted its one-week auction rate by 0.5 percentage points to 8 percent; compare with Switzerland where rate is between 0 and 0.25%
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Old 25.07.2014, 12:52
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Obama doesn't seem eager to confront Russia militarily, and EU is doing all they can to turn a blind eye to this so their business exports won't be affected, so I wonder if this escalation will bring any support from the West aside from some more meaningless token sanctions against Russia?
Yes, seems to be exactly the situation in my opinion. I think current rise in support from the West is mostly attributed to the Boeing disaster, as Western leaders obviously need to show something given that many people got angered by this huge loss of lives and the way Russians treated the crash site. I do expect EU to return to its modified "waiting" tactics at the first opportunity though (but as I mentioned before, I can understand why EU is not willing to make large sacrifices because of the Ukraine).

Some countries (Netherland, Australia, Poland etc.) are genuinely angered though, so there likely will be some rise of support from them.

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If the West doesn't do anything, then Putin will probably go in to Ukraine with his full military and take Donestsk and Lugansk before the Ukrainian military encircles them and routes them out. Or else he will just continue supporting them from behind and the war will drag on endlessly.
Yep. I think the former is more likely as it looks like Putin is not backing off, and if so, he must be fully aware that he needs to achieve something before mid-autumn. Putin lost some time because of the Boeing (and he was really escalating the conflict from ~15 July), and now he is hectically trying to catch up. So there are daily provocations on the border, daily artillery attacks from the Russian territory (carried out by regular Russian army), and Ukrainian fighter jets being openly shot down by Russian fighter jets on Ukrainian territory. Plus the usual daily arrivals of Russian militants/tanks/artillery into Ukraine. So I expect August to be a very hot/bad month..
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