Pity it is not Friday

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62817566

Putin realises that this coming european Winter will be critical to making or breaking the resolve EU countries in supporting sanctions.

Putin calls the price caps and sanctions "economic" war. I think of it more as a "special financial operation."

Agree. I think he left it a bit late and should have cut a lot earlier to put on maximum pressure. The problem is, even if the EU caves in, I'm not sure the UK or US will follow suit.

We might see a split with US, UK, Poland, Baltics etc. continuing to press Russia, whereas other countries might not be willing to pay the economic and political price.

Ultimately, I think it depends on the outcome of the conflict. Let's see whether the Russians are really willing to fight when Ukraine counters near Kherson.

"The European Union's executive body has proposed capping the price of Russian gas, within hours of Russia's leader condemning the idea as stupidity."

Honestly, what next? The EU proposes limiting the movement of Russian troops to within Russia's borders?

It is complicated.
Last week Russia halted the flow of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline that used to supply about one-third of Russian gas to Europe but that still leaves two-thirds running which leaves room for negotiations.

LOL. Two thirds running ...

Just a buyer's cartel.

The Russian Zapiski Veteran Channel says Ukrainian forces have also taken Semenivka and are moving towards Shevchenkove which, if true, puts them more than 30Km behind the Russian front line.

This means they have turned off the T2105 onto Т2110 in the direction of Kup'yans'k, a major supply hub for all Russian forces in Izyum and North of Izyum to the Russian border.
It is reported that Kup'yans'k is being heavily shelled.

The reported purchase by Russia of North Korean weapons and heavy artillery shells is concerning...this could mean Putin will continue with a strategy of low precision, indiscriminate shelling.

According to the Institute for Study of War (ISW), Ukraine has gained 400 sq Kms of ground south of Kharkiv and North of Izyum. This is almost the same as the total Russian gains over the last four months.

There is no information on how much Russian military equipment was captured.

As posted before "this Ukrainian counterattack seeks to cut ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Russian rear areas in Kupyansk and Izyum, which would allow Ukrainian troops to isolate the Russian groupings in these areas and retake large swaths of territory."

The ISW reports that a number of Russian Military bloggers now claim the Kherson counter-offensive was a feint for renewed operations in Kharkiv Oblast and have switched to reporting on Kharkiv. I think it was not such a feint.

🇷🇺 sources telling that 🇺🇦 has captured Dohvenke (south of Izyum), which is slightly elevated, providing a good view. It almost looks like an encirclement of the whole 🇷🇺 Izium group (from 🇷🇺 sources).

Bad North Korea.

They should know that arming Russia will only lead to the war being prolonged and more Russians dying. And worryingly, those arms are being distributed to people and organizations without any checks or balances. So god only knows where those weapons will end up and when, in years to come, they will come to be used in other situations.

So, it's a very dangerous tactic. I know some of the people in Russia who are calling for this, believe that they are doing this out of the desire to protect the Russian people. People would like to help innocent Russians. But sending more arms in is not going to do that.

/s

Confirmation that Kupiansk is under constant shelling, this is the major supply hub for Russian occupation forces from Izyum to the east of Kharkiv and is 35Km behind the Russian front line.



Link to original image

Both Germany and Russia have traditionally and historically had a penchant for ‘strong leaders’ .
It has never turned out well in the past and generally leads to a lot of unpleasantness alround.

Claimed to be a video of a typical Ukraine attack on a defended place, those Ukraine soldiers are crazy.

it is rumoured the Commander of the whole Russian West Front, VSRF in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, Colonel-General Sichovy was captured by Ukraine yesterday.
This whole thing is getting silly, just needs the Russian general staff to don red noses and clown uniforms.

The Russians sent all their battle-hardened reserves in Kharkiv down to Kherson, now they have the problem to leave them there or bringing them back. Either way, they will solve one problem just to create another problem.

I doubt Ukraine has enough troops in Kharkiv oblast or enough time to construct good defences to stand up to a major force of Russian reserves. On the other hand, they continue to positively surprise us.

Most likely any reserves from the south will come up by rail through Donetsk so if Ukraine can control that point!

Ukraine's informations have been remarkably reliable so far. In a sense that's part of Selensky's narrative "we tell the truth" (of course that doesn't mean the entire truth).

That clip is crazy. "Shock and awe" Ukraine style.
If those shouts around 0:45 in the background say "ammo! ammoooo!" I would have left them out though.

It's called "BLIZKRIEG"

The strategic error of the Russian invasion of Ukraine was to invade a county of 40M with only 170k troops and spread in 9 directions in February and now having to spread the remaining troops too thin on the perimeter of a 1300km front-line.

This creates many possibilities for Ukraine to infiltrate or break through the first line of Russian defense and advance further with minimal, if any, resistance from the second-line defences.

If Ukraine could find the resources for a third counteroffensive it would really severely hurt the Russian logistics.

This map of the war status was drawn and published by Russian milblogger Rybar who is normally strongly supportive of Russian propaganda, it is not possible to determine the accuracy of this drawing. The red dotted line gives a rough idea of where the Russian front line was a few days ago.

The photograph is of Ukraine soldiers on the doorstep of Kupiansk.