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  #7401  
Old 09.09.2022, 19:55
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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This map of the war status was drawn and published by Russian milblogger Rybar who is normally strongly supportive of Russian propaganda, it is not possible to determine the accuracy of this drawing. The red dotted line gives a rough idea of where the Russian front line was a few days ago.

The photograph is of Ukraine soldiers on the doorstep of Kupiansk.

Attachment 144170
Lots of emotional pictures on social media with civilians now actually greeting liberators. Let's hope this continues. My Ukrainian colleagues are excited. It also looks like in many cases the Russians simply run away.
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  #7402  
Old 09.09.2022, 21:47
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

The area around Izyium is said to hold 20k troops (a couple days ago). What a blow to Russia that would be if they got encircled.

Recent movements shown on deepstatemap look like Russia is relinquishing the entire northern part of its occuppied territory, the entire Donetsk oblast, and wants to keep Luhansk oblast and the connecting "strip" towards Melitopol, Kherson and Crimea.
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  #7403  
Old 09.09.2022, 22:41
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The area around Izyium is said to hold 20k troops (a couple days ago). What a blow to Russia that would be if they got encircled.

Recent movements shown on deepstatemap look like Russia is relinquishing the entire northern part of its occuppied territory, the entire Donetsk oblast, and wants to keep Luhansk oblast and the connecting "strip" towards Melitopol, Kherson and Crimea.
Russia also has around 20K to 30K troops effectively surrounded in the Kherson Oblast because all the river bridges are destroyed. The rumours that Putin directly controls the military seem to be true while no army general would have sent so many reserves into this obviously untenable position.

There are a number of similar Russian created maps of the Ukraine counter-offensive in Kharkiv, here is a nice example of a map in a video by the Wagner mercenary group which group is widely used by Russia.

I have not seen any such maps which actually show the Ukraine offensive south of Izyum that many sources quote.

Edit: there are claims Ukraine has destroyed the river bridge east of Kupyansk which will make it difficult for Russia to bring in reserves to Kharkiv Oblast
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  #7404  
Old 09.09.2022, 23:06
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Small steps. But it is f---ing beautiful to watch.
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Old 09.09.2022, 23:54
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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...Kherson Oblast .... no army general would have sent so many reserves into this obviously untenable position.
It was quite tenable until the Ukrainians got the HIMARS to hit the bridges so far behind the lines. Kherson was invaded and bypassed pretty early in the invasion, at that time not even folks in the west thought that HIMARS would end up on this battlefield.
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  #7406  
Old 10.09.2022, 01:15
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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It was quite tenable until the Ukrainians got the HIMARS to hit the bridges so far behind the lines. Kherson was invaded and bypassed pretty early in the invasion, at that time not even folks in the west thought that HIMARS would end up on this battlefield.
Russia was still sending a lot of their reserves to Kherson in mid and late July while Ukraine had HIMARS in June.
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  #7407  
Old 10.09.2022, 01:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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This map of the war status was drawn and published by Russian milblogger Rybar who is normally strongly supportive of Russian propaganda, it is not possible to determine the accuracy of this drawing. The red dotted line gives a rough idea of where the Russian front line was a few days ago.

The photograph is of Ukraine soldiers on the doorstep of Kupiansk.

Attachment 144170

Looks like The Battle of the Bulge circa 2022.
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  #7408  
Old 10.09.2022, 11:52
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Russia also has around 20K to 30K troops effectively surrounded in the Kherson Oblast because all the river bridges are destroyed. The rumours that Putin directly controls the military seem to be true while no army general would have sent so many reserves into this obviously untenable position.

There are a number of similar Russian created maps of the Ukraine counter-offensive in Kharkiv, here is a nice example of a map in a video by the Wagner mercenary group which group is widely used by Russia.

I have not seen any such maps which actually show the Ukraine offensive south of Izyum that many sources quote.

Edit: there are claims Ukraine has destroyed the river bridge east of Kupyansk which will make it difficult for Russia to bring in reserves to Kharkiv Oblast
Seems I was wrong that "Ukraine has destroyed the river bridge east of Kupyansk", it is now claimed it was blown by the Russians when they abandoned Kupyansk.

There is such a torrent of information that it is hard to keep up or verify.

Certainly, there are photos of Ukraine troops in Kupyansk, it is also claimed the Oskol river by Kupyansk is shallow enough to cross in many places and so Ukraine is pushing further east into occupied territory.

The following is based on Russian sources, sounds too good to be true so take it with a truckload of salt.

The Russians have abandoned Izyium.

Lysychansk and Lyman south of Izyium are under attack from several directions.

Ukraine is running out of space to hold Russian prisoners of war, some claims are that up to a sixth of the Russian army may have to surrender.

Lots of videos around of Ukraine soldiers trying to figure out how to use some of the newest Russian military equipment they have captured.
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  #7409  
Old 10.09.2022, 13:52
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Good piece by Lawrence Freedman

"It would of course be premature to pronounce a complete Ukrainian victory in the war because of one successful and unexpected breakthrough. But what has happened over the past few days is of historic importance. This offensive has overturned much of what was confidently assumed about the course of the war. It serves as a reminder that just because the front lines appear static it does not mean that they will stay that way, and that morale and motivation drain away from armies facing defeat, especially when the troops are uncertain about the cause for which they are fighting and have lost confidence in their officers. Who wants to be a martyr when the war is already lost?"

https://samf.substack.com/p/graduall...m_medium=email
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  #7410  
Old 10.09.2022, 16:02
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Again from Russian sources;

Ukraine soldiers on the outskirts of Lyzium possibly confirming it was abandoned.

Ukraine is running down the P70 southeast of Kupyansk and has reached Svatove, 60Km down the road. Even some extreme claims that the Russians have abandoned Svatove.

Rybar (russian blogger) begging the Russian Government to admit to defeats.
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  #7411  
Old 10.09.2022, 16:07
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

This is today's briefing on the progress of the Special Military Operation issued by the Russian MoD.

https://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/coun...2437668@egNews
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  #7412  
Old 10.09.2022, 18:06
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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This is today's briefing on the progress of the Special Military Operation issued by the Russian MoD.

https://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/coun...2437668@egNews
LOL!

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In order to achieve the stated goals of the NMD to liberate Donbass, it was decided to regroup the Russian troops stationed in the Balakleya and Izyum regions to step up efforts in the Donetsk direction,” the Russian Ministry of Defense reported.
Would have been better if the Russian Ministry of Defense had stayed quiet.

Even more unbelievable; claims the Russian army is retreating from Lysychansk and from Vovchansk, the last city in the Kharkiv region under RU control.

I just hope they have not stretched themselves too far and will be able to withstand the inevitable Russian counter attack.
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  #7413  
Old 10.09.2022, 19:24
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

So Russia pretty much confirms UA's informations.

Of course details will differ, probably including whether the "decision to regroup" was actually carried out, and to what extent.

Yes, that "stretching thin" will be something to consider. If UA took back the entire Donetsk oblast, its frontier (including the regular border with Russia) would more than double in that area compared to its length a week ago. And that would be in a Russia-friendly region, to boot. Logistics would get quite a bit more difficult as well.
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Old 10.09.2022, 19:52
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Russia took a month to "liberate" Izyum, Ukraine in less than one day, flags already flying.

Russia has confirmed they are retreating from Vovchansk,"to protect civilians ", this from the people who have been slaughtering civilians by the thousands.
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Old 10.09.2022, 20:34
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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So Russia pretty much confirms UA's informations.

Of course details will differ, probably including whether the "decision to regroup" was actually carried out, and to what extent.

Yes, that "stretching thin" will be something to consider. If UA took back the entire Donetsk oblast, its frontier (including the regular border with Russia) would more than double in that area compared to its length a week ago. And that would be in a Russia-friendly region, to boot. Logistics would get quite a bit more difficult as well.
Not sure how Russian friendly after six months of occupation plus, it is claimed, forcible conscription of the menfolk. Probably most of the conscripted are now dead or wounded due to the friendly Russians pushing them in front of their regular troops.
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Old 10.09.2022, 21:32
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Not sure how Russian friendly after six months of occupation plus, it is claimed, forcible conscription of the menfolk. Probably most of the conscripted are now dead or wounded due to the friendly Russians pushing them in front of their regular troops.
I don't think the US population, despite their very diverse origins, had too much gripe with the federal government after WW2 due to conscription. Losing a son, brother or father doesn't necessarily instill that.
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  #7417  
Old 11.09.2022, 01:15
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I don't think the US population, despite their very diverse origins, had too much gripe with the federal government after WW2 due to conscription. Losing a son, brother or father doesn't necessarily instill that.
And, of course, the US conscription for Vietnam was also a great success
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  #7418  
Old 11.09.2022, 15:07
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

The map below is claimed to be the latest official Ukraine war map from the Russian Ministry of Defense that shows they have abandoned almost the whole Kharkiv Oblast.

Name:  RussianMODUkrainemap.jpg
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  #7419  
Old 11.09.2022, 15:10
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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And, of course, the US conscription for Vietnam was also a great success
The protests were about the war, not conscription. The slogans were "make love, not war" and similar, rather than "down with conscription".
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  #7420  
Old 11.09.2022, 21:34
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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So Russia pretty much confirms UA's informations.

Of course details will differ, probably including whether the "decision to regroup" was actually carried out, and to what extent.

Yes, that "stretching thin" will be something to consider. If UA took back the entire Donetsk oblast, its frontier (including the regular border with Russia) would more than double in that area compared to its length a week ago. And that would be in a Russia-friendly region, to boot. Logistics would get quite a bit more difficult as well.
Indeed, the Ukrainians would be wise not to celebrate too early, as Poot'n usually leaves no good deed unpunished.
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