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  #7421  
Old 12.09.2022, 09:46
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Indeed, the Ukrainians would be wise not to celebrate too early, as Poot'n usually leaves no good deed unpunished.
This is my thoughts too. Am I the only one thinking all this hurrah-ing because we are killing russian soldiers is a good thing ? He's not likely to hold up a white flag and wave it, is he ? Your risk is a real, proper, devastating attack.
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  #7422  
Old 12.09.2022, 10:24
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Good piece by Lawrence Freedman

"It would of course be premature to pronounce a complete Ukrainian victory in the war because of one successful and unexpected breakthrough. But what has happened over the past few days is of historic importance. This offensive has overturned much of what was confidently assumed about the course of the war. It serves as a reminder that just because the front lines appear static it does not mean that they will stay that way, and that morale and motivation drain away from armies facing defeat, especially when the troops are uncertain about the cause for which they are fighting and have lost confidence in their officers. Who wants to be a martyr when the war is already lost?"

https://samf.substack.com/p/graduall...m_medium=email
This could mark a turning point. There were already doubts about the Russian will to fight and this break could cause a ripple effect. Let's see what happens around Kherson/Crimea - if they also collapse there, I don't see how Russia can sustain this war and then what would their next step be?
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Old 12.09.2022, 10:56
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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This is my thoughts too. Am I the only one thinking all this hurrah-ing because we are killing russian soldiers is a good thing ? He's not likely to hold up a white flag and wave it, is he ? Your risk is a real, proper, devastating attack.
Russia does not have the forces for a big attack, their army has been heavily depleted. The myth of the world's second best army has been destroyed by their own corruption, failure to invest in modern equipment and poor training. Soviet era weaponry no longer cuts.
The current attempt to boost their forces with voluntary people is just proproviding old and inexperienced soldiers who fall apart under attack.

Last nights missile attack on a main Ukraine power station has put Kharkiv Oblast in darkness plus in the usual incompetent way, large swaths of the Russian annexed territories and even rumored into Russia itself.
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Old 12.09.2022, 10:58
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Russia does not have the forces for a big attack, their army has been heavily depleted. The myth of the world's second best army has been destroyed by their own corruption, failure to invest in modern equipment and poor training. Soviet era weaponry no longer cuts.
The current attempt to boost their forces with voluntary people is just proproviding old and inexperienced soldiers who fall apart under attack.

Last nights missile attack on a main Ukraine power station has put Kharkiv Oblast in darkness plus in the usual incompetent way, large swaths of the Russian annexed territories and even rumored into Russia itself.
I am thinking more small scale tactical nuclear weapons.
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  #7425  
Old 12.09.2022, 12:02
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I am thinking more small scale tactical nuclear weapons.
Which will give the USA/NATO an opportunity to wipe Moscow off the face of the earth. Not bad for Ukraine. I believe before anything like that will happen Putin will be overthrown as his riot Police who he forced to be frontline soldiers have been virtually wiped out. There is no one in Moscow to damp down any protesters anymore.
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  #7426  
Old 12.09.2022, 12:02
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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This is my thoughts too. Am I the only one thinking all this hurrah-ing because we are killing russian soldiers is a good thing ? He's not likely to hold up a white flag and wave it, is he ? Your risk is a real, proper, devastating attack.
i still think we're a long way away from nuclear war, russia has still not mobilized and continues to enforce a rather light deployment. whether this is a smart move or not remains to be seem, but russia seems to believe that time is on its side - looking at some of the panic in other countries already where its still summer with plentiful affordable food they might have point!
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  #7427  
Old 12.09.2022, 12:22
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Directly from tass.com (Russian news agency).

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West's military strategy on Russia-Ukraine conflict not working, says Hungarian PM

VIENNA, July 29. /TASS/. The West's military strategy with regard to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is not working, peace in Ukraine can be achieved only through talks between Russia and the United States, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Friday, speaking on Kossuth radio.

"The West’s military strategy does not work, it has failed," he said, noting that the chances of settling the conflict in Ukraine are slim without negotiations between Russia and the United States.

Orban slammed the idea that the Ukrainian army would be able to defeat Russia with Western weapons as delusion. In his opinion, the EU sanctions, which were supposed to destabilize Russia, did not work either. The entire world is not united against Russia, he said.

According to the Hungarian Prime Minister, in this situation it is necessary to work out a new system of European security. "You don't put out the fire with a flamethrower. America has a key role to play here. This is called a proxy war. The West is half-involved in the war, a new European security system must be agreed upon, and since we [the European Union] do not have a unified army, we must again expect European stability from a Russian-American agreement," he added.
https://tass.com/world/1486369

It would be a shame a if this power plant gets more attention from people around the world. On the other hand, I'm really curious to see how Russia is going to finance the construction of reactors in Hungary under current conditions.

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Hungary authorized construction of Paks-2 NPP reactor, nuclear island — Foreign Minister

VIENNA, August 30. /TASS/. The Hungarian Atomic Energy Authority issued permits to start construction of reactor No. 5 and the nuclear island of the Paks-2 Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) to be built with participation of Russia’s Rosatom, Hungary’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said on Tuesday.
https://tass.com/world/1499945
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  #7428  
Old 12.09.2022, 13:06
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I am thinking more small scale tactical nuclear weapons.
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Which will give the USA/NATO an opportunity to wipe Moscow off the face of the earth.
When considering this "opportunity", let us not forget that the US and Russia can still destroy each other completely within 30 minutes. And this does't have to happen because someone consciously opts for maximum destruction - this could be a consequence of mistakes and misunderstandings.

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I believe before anything like that will happen Putin will be overthrown as his riot Police who he forced to be frontline soldiers have been virtually wiped out. There is no one in Moscow to damp down any protesters anymore.
Let's hope. I think Putin is not suicidal and would know that he is done if he goes there. The idea of a coup or revolution in the middle of a war is not something that makes me sleep well either.
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  #7429  
Old 12.09.2022, 13:13
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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When considering this "opportunity", let us not forget that the US and Russia can still destroy each other completely within 30 minutes. And this does't have to happen because someone consciously opts for maximum destruction - this could be a consequence of mistakes and misunderstandings.



Let's hope. I think Putin is not suicidal and would know that he is done if he goes there. The idea of a coup or revolution in the middle of a war is not something that makes me sleep well either.
There are lots of different nuclear weapons though, arent there ? There are your big "lets flatten london" which everyone agrees is the end of the world and no one in their right mind, including Mr P, will use them. But there are much smaller nuclear weapons I thought, those who's fallout would not stretch beyond a country's border.

One of the UK papers was boasting that Ukraine's soldiers were "at the Russian border" in the northern region. Whats the expectation with Putin ? That he's going to hold up his hands and say "oh man, you got me there. Right I'll pass across control to this new democratically elected pro western chap".

If you push him into a corner and give no sense that he has acheived anything, he may lash out and it doesnt have to be The Big Bomb to do it.

Anyway, all he really has to do now is wait. 15 months from now European solidarity will be in pieces, if it even gets anywhere near that far, because we will be on our economic knees. Russia will be fine, its selling to India, Asia and getting tech from China. It gets weapons from syria and north korea. its getting loads of money in. America is in heaven as its got a real live playground to test out its tech with almost no risk.

The big losers are us, Western Europe, and just letting the Ukraines march back onto their land and boast about it, could end up in an entirely unexpected and sorry affair if you ask me.
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  #7430  
Old 12.09.2022, 13:30
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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There are lots of different nuclear weapons though, arent there ? There are your big "lets flatten london" which everyone agrees is the end of the world and no one in their right mind, including Mr P, will use them. But there are much smaller nuclear weapons I thought, those who's fallout would not stretch beyond a country's border.

One of the UK papers was boasting that Ukraine's soldiers were "at the Russian border" in the northern region. Whats the expectation with Putin ? That he's going to hold up his hands and say "oh man, you got me there. Right I'll pass across control to this new democratically elected pro western chap".

If you push him into a corner and give no sense that he has acheived anything, he may lash out and it doesnt have to be The Big Bomb to do it.

Anyway, all he really has to do now is wait. 15 months from now European solidarity will be in pieces, if it even gets anywhere near that far, because we will be on our economic knees. Russia will be fine, its selling to India, Asia and getting tech from China. It gets weapons from syria and north korea. its getting loads of money in. America is in heaven as its got a real live playground to test out its tech with almost no risk.

The big losers are us, Western Europe, and just letting the Ukraines march back onto their land and boast about it, could end up in an entirely unexpected and sorry affair if you ask me.
Nice try at spreading unsubstantiated and highly subjective FUD.
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Old 12.09.2022, 13:41
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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This is my thoughts too. Am I the only one thinking all this hurrah-ing because we are killing russian soldiers is a good thing ? He's not likely to hold up a white flag and wave it, is he ? Your risk is a real, proper, devastating attack.
Is killing Ukrainian soldiers a good thing then?

Who started this horrible mess?
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  #7432  
Old 12.09.2022, 13:50
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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There are lots of different nuclear weapons though, arent there ? There are your big "lets flatten london" which everyone agrees is the end of the world and no one in their right mind, including Mr P, will use them. But there are much smaller nuclear weapons I thought, those who's fallout would not stretch beyond a country's border.

One of the UK papers was boasting that Ukraine's soldiers were "at the Russian border" in the northern region. Whats the expectation with Putin ? That he's going to hold up his hands and say "oh man, you got me there. Right I'll pass across control to this new democratically elected pro western chap".

If you push him into a corner and give no sense that he has acheived anything, he may lash out and it doesnt have to be The Big Bomb to do it.

Anyway, all he really has to do now is wait. 15 months from now European solidarity will be in pieces, if it even gets anywhere near that far, because we will be on our economic knees. Russia will be fine, its selling to India, Asia and getting tech from China. It gets weapons from syria and north korea. its getting loads of money in. America is in heaven as its got a real live playground to test out its tech with almost no risk.

The big losers are us, Western Europe, and just letting the Ukraines march back onto their land and boast about it, could end up in an entirely unexpected and sorry affair if you ask me.
I don't see nuclear weapons as the answer. This would turn Russia completely into a pariah and any remaining neutral/allied countries would be forced to pull their support.

And while European solidarity may well crack, I'm not convinced this will be helpful to Russia in the short term. Certain countries will probably not budge (US, UK, Poland, Baltics) and if they keep supporting Ukraine and supplying weapons it doens't matter what the rest of the EU does.
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Old 12.09.2022, 14:03
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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There are lots of different nuclear weapons though, arent there ? There are your big "lets flatten london" which everyone agrees is the end of the world and no one in their right mind, including Mr P, will use them. But there are much smaller nuclear weapons I thought, those who's fallout would not stretch beyond a country's border.

One of the UK papers was boasting that Ukraine's soldiers were "at the Russian border" in the northern region. Whats the expectation with Putin ? That he's going to hold up his hands and say "oh man, you got me there. Right I'll pass across control to this new democratically elected pro western chap".

If you push him into a corner and give no sense that he has acheived anything, he may lash out and it doesnt have to be The Big Bomb to do it.
I agree in that this war of survival for President Putin, who cannot afford to lose. When the stakes are so high, the most likely reaction to the recent Ukrainian advances will be an escalation. What form this takes remains to be seen, however an "accidental" strike on that nuclear power plant isn't beyond possibility nor is the use of WMDs.

Another possible outcome would be that President Putin gets deposed on the recent embarrassing losses. This would be the preferable outcome.
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  #7434  
Old 12.09.2022, 14:05
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Is killing Ukrainian soldiers a good thing then?

Who started this horrible mess?
Is a nice question to ask because it makes you feel morally wonderful and happy. Good defeating evil. Kindness over terror and all that.

Thé actual way it plays out gets more difficult though at least for us here in Europe. India is buying loads of oil, tonnes of the stuff. Saudi Arabia for example is also buying Russian oil then selling its own stuff to us. The numbers are what matters and the numbers tell us that Russia is still getting a strong income. India doesn’t give a toss about the moral good vs evil thing, it cares for itself economically and it’s within its rights to do so.

So in the end, the problem facing us is spiralling energy prices and a lack of alternative energy sources particularly by next winter, not this. People in well off countries like Switzerland can usually handle extra cost as we are relatively speaking rich. But you take the middle of the road places, even England as an example, and as the economy tanks and the government gets unmanageable debt and public services creak, do you really think they are going to continue to say to Zelensky ‘we’re behind you all the way’ when it will ruin their eloctoral chances for a decade or more ?

People are kind and thoughtful in Western Europe but I think it has a fairly low limit and as soon as it really gets awkward cracks will appear - indeed apparently Italy’s coalition had splits in it over Russia just last week.

Concerning the whole propaganda rubbish, that’s not the point. I hate putin as much as you do. But hating and being morally right are often a very different outcome to what economics and human nature will deliver.
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  #7435  
Old 12.09.2022, 14:15
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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There are lots of different nuclear weapons though, arent there ? There are your big "lets flatten london" which everyone agrees is the end of the world and no one in their right mind, including Mr P, will use them. But there are much smaller nuclear weapons I thought, those who's fallout would not stretch beyond a country's border.

One of the UK papers was boasting that Ukraine's soldiers were "at the Russian border" in the northern region. Whats the expectation with Putin ? That he's going to hold up his hands and say "oh man, you got me there. Right I'll pass across control to this new democratically elected pro western chap".

If you push him into a corner and give no sense that he has acheived anything, he may lash out and it doesnt have to be The Big Bomb to do it.

Anyway, all he really has to do now is wait. 15 months from now European solidarity will be in pieces, if it even gets anywhere near that far, because we will be on our economic knees. Russia will be fine, its selling to India, Asia and getting tech from China. It gets weapons from syria and north korea. its getting loads of money in. America is in heaven as its got a real live playground to test out its tech with almost no risk.

The big losers are us, Western Europe, and just letting the Ukraines march back onto their land and boast about it, could end up in an entirely unexpected and sorry affair if you ask me.
"But there are much smaller nuclear weapons I thought, those whose fallout would not stretch beyond a country's border." Just LOL!
You do know the fallout is in the air and then carried by the wind? How will it magically stop at the border?

Small is anyway relative, the results are big and dangerous.
It is unlikely the Russian soldiers are equipped with proper protective gear so any "small" device must be targeted to hit at least 10Km from them to avoid doing more damage to them than the other side.

Ukraine's air defences are now very good so have better than a 50% chance of downing an incoming nuclear device, hopefully not crashing it on Russian occupied territory.
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  #7436  
Old 12.09.2022, 14:17
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

China's Global Times (EN newspaper part of People's Daily) has a nice dedicated website for live updates on "Ukraine tensions". Nothing has happened in the last 34 days according to them. Make your conclusions



https://www.globaltimes.cn/special-c...-Timeline.html

PS. there's a joke about the French and August. Maybe it's time to change the nationality from the joke
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Old 12.09.2022, 14:27
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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"But there are much smaller nuclear weapons I thought, those whose fallout would not stretch beyond a country's border." Just LOL!
You do know the fallout is in the air and then carried by the wind? How will it magically stop at the border?

Small is anyway relative, the results are big and dangerous.
It is unlikely the Russian soldiers are equipped with proper protective gear so any "small" device must be targeted to hit at least 10Km from them to avoid doing more damage to them than the other side.

Ukraine's air defences are now very good so have better than a 50% chance of downing an incoming nuclear device, hopefully not crashing it on Russian occupied territory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon
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  #7438  
Old 12.09.2022, 14:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Anyway, all he really has to do now is wait. 15 months from now European solidarity will be in pieces, if it even gets anywhere near that far, because we will be on our economic knees. Russia will be fine, its selling to India, Asia and getting tech from China. It gets weapons from syria and north korea. its getting loads of money in. America is in heaven as its got a real live playground to test out its tech with almost no risk.
sounds like putler propaganda!
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  #7439  
Old 12.09.2022, 14:31
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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sounds like putler propaganda!
Ok, does it help if a journalist says it, not me ?

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...vladimir-putin
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Old 12.09.2022, 14:39
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Ok, does it help if a journalist says it, not me ?

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...vladimir-putin
Only issue is today is not June 2, 2022. So, what's your take today from an opinion piece from 102 days ago?
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