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Old 12.09.2022, 13:59
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Only issue is today is not June 2, 2022. So, what's your take today from an opinion piece from 102 days ago?
I think they will weather it. There are a lot of articles every day on it - I'm quite surprised you need me to explain it to you - saying that the sanctions are hurting, the retraction is forecast to be about 6% now, not 10 initially thought, but the main problem remains there is no global price cap on oil and gas, so while asia and china buy, any sanction effect hurts but its not fully destructive, and with every passing day they get more opportunity to build trade relations with countries that will cooperate, of which there are many in the asia / africa, China regions.

Plus of course, Putin can have unhappy people who can't get starbucks coffee and he doesnt give a sod. whereas here if they closed all the starbucks you'd have General Strikes and downed tools. Russians will put up with it, so while we have only a limited effect on the economy and they are still making lots of money through energy sales, I still believe we are at the most risk, not them. The clock is ticking for Europe, which will run out of fuel, while russia might get a bit of shit living for a bit, but they can carry on.
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  #7442  
Old 12.09.2022, 14:34
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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who started this horrible mess?
usa.
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  #7443  
Old 12.09.2022, 14:50
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I agree in that this war of survival for President Putin, who cannot afford to lose. When the stakes are so high, the most likely reaction to the recent Ukrainian advances will be an escalation. What form this takes remains to be seen, however an "accidental" strike on that nuclear power plant isn't beyond possibility nor is the use of WMDs.
Russia is aleady a pariah for the west, any kind of WMD might well do the same in the rest of the world. The reaction to a nuke or two in Ukraine would be to do nothing, Putin would hang himself (perhaps literally). Likewise other WMDs.
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  #7444  
Old 12.09.2022, 15:01
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I think they will weather it. There are a lot of articles every day on it - I'm quite surprised you need me to explain it to you - saying that the sanctions are hurting, the retraction is forecast to be about 6% now, not 10 initially thought, but the main problem remains there is no global price cap on oil and gas, so while asia and china buy, any sanction effect hurts but its not fully destructive, and with every passing day they get more opportunity to build trade relations with countries that will cooperate, of which there are many in the asia / africa, China regions.
OK, Russia invented diversification. Companies that employ people around here do not get a significant fraction of their revenue from China. Stuff sold here is not manufactured there. Designs and technology to build there are not created here. That's the interesting part, China doing well is good for some people around here. However, that's business as usual for multinationals. Booms and busts are not synchronized around the world.

https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-CHI...00D/index.html

On the other hand, I feel sorry for people working on companies that only serve the local European market. It's going to hurt.
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Old 12.09.2022, 15:06
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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There are lots of different nuclear weapons though, arent there ? There are your big "lets flatten london" which everyone agrees is the end of the world and no one in their right mind, including Mr P, will use them. But there are much smaller nuclear weapons I thought, those who's fallout would not stretch beyond a country's border.

One of the UK papers was boasting that Ukraine's soldiers were "at the Russian border" in the northern region. Whats the expectation with Putin ? That he's going to hold up his hands and say "oh man, you got me there. Right I'll pass across control to this new democratically elected pro western chap".

If you push him into a corner and give no sense that he has acheived anything, he may lash out and it doesnt have to be The Big Bomb to do it.

Anyway, all he really has to do now is wait. 15 months from now European solidarity will be in pieces, if it even gets anywhere near that far, because we will be on our economic knees. Russia will be fine, its selling to India, Asia and getting tech from China. It gets weapons from syria and north korea. its getting loads of money in. America is in heaven as its got a real live playground to test out its tech with almost no risk.

The big losers are us, Western Europe, and just letting the Ukraines march back onto their land and boast about it, could end up in an entirely unexpected and sorry affair if you ask me.
The only help Europe could give Putin is to drop the sanctions but if as you say "European solidarity will be in pieces" there can not be a unanimous vote to drop the sanctions.
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  #7446  
Old 12.09.2022, 15:21
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The only help Europe could give Putin is to drop the sanctions but if as you say "European solidarity will be in pieces" there can not be a unanimous vote to drop the sanctions.
Crikey. So if Italy says "we're going under Financially, we can't survive with these sanctions in place ?" then your saying its too bad, once your in the EU there is literally no way out ?
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Old 12.09.2022, 15:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Apparently an official document by the ministry of finance confirms the death (not including other losses like wounded or missing according to the Youtuber) of more than 48k Russian soldiers (by August 24?). Perhaps a Russian speaker can summarize?

https://youtu.be/Lyf3t2BgvPs?t=904
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Old 12.09.2022, 16:36
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Crikey. So if Italy says "we're going under Financially, we can't survive with these sanctions in place ?" then your saying its too bad, once your in the EU there is literally no way out ?
Well, Italy could always do a Brexit, look how successful that was.

And yes, again, some EU decisions have to be unanimous.

Definition; Unanimous consent is a legislative procedure whereby a legislator requests approval from all legislators to approve rule changes and bills.
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Old 12.09.2022, 18:20
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Ukrainian authorities claimed that around 500 square kilometers (almost 200 square miles) of territory has been recaptured in the southern Kherson region in the past two weeks. The settlements of Vysokopillia, Novovoznesenske, Bilohirka, Myroliubivka and Sukhyi Stavok were “completely liberated from the occupiers and are under the Ukrainian flag."

"Talking about the forces that have been transferred for the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army, it outnumbered our troops by about eight times, no less,” Vitaly Ganchev, the most senior Russian backed official in the northeastern Kharkiv region, told Russia 24 today. LOL!

Ukraine is pushing into the Donetsk Oblast and claiming victories.

And finally, don't hold your breath but "Deputies from 18 municipal districts in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and Kolpino have called for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s resignation, according to a petition with a list of signatures posted on Twitter today."
Probably best described as "brave but foolish", but anyway I wish them success.
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Old 13.09.2022, 07:59
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

How "the 2nd best military in the world" is running out of everything and what sanctions have to do with it:

https://breakingdefense.com/2022/09/...into-invasion/
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Old 13.09.2022, 10:00
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

The use of even tactical nuclear weapons could cause contamination in the Luhansk/Donetsk and Crimean territories...that won't benefit anybody.

I think this war will last until at least spring of 2023. Critical factors are:

*The ability of Europe to endure some discomfort of a cold winter with lower heating and power availability. This is still better than bombs and tanks on the doorstep.
*The ability of Russian soldiers to keep up morale as the temperatures in the trenches begins to plummet. Not sure the Kremlin will distribute Winter kit for their soldiers.
*The ability of the West to keep Ukraine supplied with accurate heavy weapons. Russia is sure to respond with indiscriminate shelling if they can get close enough.

One thing the West needs to be careful with is how they support Ukraine if the conflict subsides. Re-patriating refugees and re-integrating fighters into civilised life is a difficult task...not to mention the plethora of weapons that can't be accounted for. Organised crime and corruption need to be targeted from the get-go.
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Old 13.09.2022, 10:03
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

The success of the UA counter near Kharkiv calls into question the capabilities/competence of the RU military. How did their intelligence fail to spot the build-up ahead of the attack?
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Old 13.09.2022, 10:08
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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How "the 2nd best military in the world" is running out of everything and what sanctions have to do with it:

https://breakingdefense.com/2022/09/...into-invasion/
As well as sanctions, also mentioned is corruption. It would not surprise me that money supposed to purchase the reactive armour mentioned was stolen and fake cardboard armour was used to hide the theft.

China probably should look to their systems as another country which has huge corruption problems and spent a lot of military recently - it wouldn't surprise me if they found the same and supposed investment into military spending was instead stolen.
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Old 13.09.2022, 10:25
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Problems keep piling up. Others start thinking about what can be done while the Russian army is quite busy.

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Armenia appeals to Russia, CSTO, UN in connection with clashes on border. Earlier, the Armenian Defense Ministry stated that at 00:05 on September 13, units of the Azerbaijani armed forces opened intense fire
https://tass.com/world/1506569
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Old 13.09.2022, 10:25
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Ukraine’s Kakhovka Operational Group announced that Ukrainian forces have liberated over 500 square kilometers of territory in Kherson Oblast.

Satellite imagery of known Russian positions in Kyselivka, 15km northwest of Kherson City, shows that all but four Russian vehicles have departed, the apparent withdrawal of Russian troops from this position may compromise the Russians’ ability to defend the northwestern outskirts of Kherson City.

A spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command, Natalya Humenyuk, stated on September 12 that Russian forces located along the right bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast are attempting to negotiate for surrender under the auspices of international law. I find this hard to believe.
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Old 13.09.2022, 10:44
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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*The ability of Europe to endure some discomfort of a cold winter with lower heating and power availability. This is still better than bombs and tanks on the doorstep.
discomfort of a cold winter for europe > global food shortages > mass migration.
all of which lead to a reduction in living standards and possibly further political turmoil in europe.
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Old 13.09.2022, 10:51
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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As well as sanctions, also mentioned is corruption. It would not surprise me that money supposed to purchase the reactive armour mentioned was stolen and fake cardboard armour was used to hide the theft.
Of course. That is why nothing works in Russia, or costs twice as much as it would cost in the West. This includes oil and gas pipelines which are classic "builds a lot of houses" business.

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China probably should look to their systems as another country which has huge corruption problems and spent a lot of military recently - it wouldn't surprise me if they found the same and supposed investment into military spending was instead stolen.
Maybe, but I doubt it. At least the scale. We will find out soon when we will see some Chinese military activity somewhere testing the US.
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Old 13.09.2022, 10:55
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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A spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command, Natalya Humenyuk, stated on September 12 that Russian forces located along the right bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast are attempting to negotiate for surrender under the auspices of international law. I find this hard to believe.
Flip! It would be an extraordinary occurence.
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Old 13.09.2022, 13:47
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

On top of the destruction is the disclosure of secrets. So many pieces of equipment have been captured by UA and sent to the US. This could severely compromise the future effectiveness of RU systems in the future.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...c-warfare-pods
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Old 13.09.2022, 13:53
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The success of the UA counter near Kharkiv calls into question the capabilities/competence of the RU military. How did their intelligence fail to spot the build-up ahead of the attack?
Also, to add insult to injury, the Ukrainians apparently called it a "Special Operation of misinformation".
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