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Old 13.09.2022, 20:18
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The use of even tactical nuclear weapons could cause contamination in the Luhansk/Donetsk and Crimean territories...that won't benefit anybody.

I think this war will last until at least spring of 2023. Critical factors are:

*The ability of Europe to endure some discomfort of a cold winter with lower heating and power availability. This is still better than bombs and tanks on the doorstep.
*The ability of Russian soldiers to keep up morale as the temperatures in the trenches begins to plummet. Not sure the Kremlin will distribute Winter kit for their soldiers.
*The ability of the West to keep Ukraine supplied with accurate heavy weapons. Russia is sure to respond with indiscriminate shelling if they can get close enough.

One thing the West needs to be careful with is how they support Ukraine if the conflict subsides. Re-patriating refugees and re-integrating fighters into civilised life is a difficult task...not to mention the plethora of weapons that can't be accounted for. Organised crime and corruption need to be targeted from the get-go.
seems like wishful thinking……

It’s no longer the first half of the 20th century, europeans have been living in high levels of comfort for decades. I think there will be significant unrest and violence due to lack of heat and electricity. Not mentioned is perhaps continued and severe inflation, recessions due to the energy shortage and subsequent unemployment.

This will be a winter to remember (negatively) for us all…….but at least we’re safe from a country that is barely holding on to their meager holdings in the Ukraine…..makes perfect sense..heh

Btw, didn’t Azerbaijan attack armenia yesterday (who in turn has requested millitary aid from russia due to their defensive pact). I’ve been at work all day, can someone fill me in on the outcry and sanctions? Anyone see giant armenian flags in the major cities? Will “Miatsum” replace “slava ukraina” on everyone’s tongues?

Well somehow I doubt it….as the same day they attacked Armenia, Azerbaijan also announced that they will increase natural gas exports to europe by 30%

https://www.rferl.org/a/azerbaijan-i.../32029812.html
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  #7462  
Old 13.09.2022, 21:03
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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seems like wishful thinking……

It’s no longer the first half of the 20th century, europeans have been living in high levels of comfort for decades. I think there will be significant unrest and violence due to lack of heat and electricity. Not mentioned is perhaps continued and severe inflation, recessions due to the energy shortage and subsequent unemployment.

This will be a winter to remember (negatively) for us all…….but at least we’re safe from a country that is barely holding on to their meager holdings in the Ukraine…..makes perfect sense..heh

Btw, didn’t Azerbaijan attack armenia yesterday (who in turn has requested millitary aid from russia due to their defensive pact). I’ve been at work all day, can someone fill me in on the outcry and sanctions? Anyone see giant armenian flags in the major cities? Will “Miatsum” replace “slava ukraina” on everyone’s tongues?

Well somehow I doubt it….as the same day they attacked Armenia, Azerbaijan also announced that they will increase natural gas exports to europe by 30%

https://www.rferl.org/a/azerbaijan-i.../32029812.html
I posted months ago that Russia pulled its peacekeeping forces out of Armenia to reinforce its Ukraine forces.

Consequently, Russia broke the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire agreement where it pledged to keep peacemaking forces of the Russian Federation deployed for five years, a term to be automatically extended for subsequent five-year terms unless either Party notifies about its intention to terminate this clause six months before the expiration of the current term.

This is not the first time hostilities have broken out due to this lack of Russian peacekeepers and probably not the last time.

Why would we see giant Armenian flags in the major cities? Firstly it is just another Russian failure, made worse while Russia does not have enough reserves to replace the peacekeepers. Secondly, it is not clear which side was the aggressor.

Happy to enlighten my younger colleague.
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Old 13.09.2022, 21:30
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Sometimes history books help.

Armenia / Azerbaijan has been a simmering conflict since 1991. Armenia occupied territory that is acknowledged by most countries as being part of Azerbaijan. It also does not help that Azerbaijan has an exclave that is separated from the mainland by Armenian territory. Since then, they have meddled. If anything, this now tells you that Russia's f--- up in Ukraine also weakens its role as "police man" or stabilizer in the Caucasus and Central Asia. The Azeris are just playing their cards and the Armenians now look a bit lost because their friends are having their hands full.
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  #7464  
Old 13.09.2022, 22:25
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Sometimes history books help.

Armenia / Azerbaijan has been a simmering conflict since 1991. Armenia occupied territory that is acknowledged by most countries as being part of Azerbaijan. It also does not help that Azerbaijan has an exclave that is separated from the mainland by Armenian territory. Since then, they have meddled. If anything, this now tells you that Russia's f--- up in Ukraine also weakens its role as "police man" or stabilizer in the Caucasus and Central Asia. The Azeris are just playing their cards and the Armenians now look a bit lost because their friends are having their hands full.
Interesting, sounds a bit like Crimea
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  #7465  
Old 13.09.2022, 22:41
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Interesting, sounds a bit like Crimea
Nothing like Crimea
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Old 13.09.2022, 23:21
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Btw, didn’t Azerbaijan attack armenia yesterday (who in turn has requested millitary aid from russia due to their defensive pact). I’ve been at work all day, can someone fill me in on the outcry and sanctions? Anyone see giant armenian flags in the major cities? Will “Miatsum” replace “slava ukraina” on everyone’s tongues?
There are giant Azerbaijan flags in almost every town.



And yes, there was outcry and criticism to Azerbaijan and Migros for having this war-loving partner back on 2020. You can sleep in peace knowing there's people outraged with Azerbaijan

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Migros criticized for Socar gas stations
The Azerbaijani oil company Socar is spreading war propaganda on social networks.
https://www.nau.ch/news/wirtschaft/m...ellen-65797281
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Old 14.09.2022, 13:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

But NATO and the imperialist US did not respect our legitimate security concerns ...

"Vladimir Putin's chief envoy on Ukraine told the Russian leader as the war began that he had struck a provisional deal with Kyiv that would satisfy Russia's demand that Ukraine stay out of NATO, but Putin rejected it and pressed ahead with his military campaign, according to three people close to the Russian leadership."

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...de-2022-09-14/

This might also explain why Zelensky said he did not believe Russia would invade.
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Old 14.09.2022, 13:36
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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"Vladimir Putin's chief envoy on Ukraine told the Russian leader as the war began that he had struck a provisional deal with Kyiv that would satisfy Russia's demand that Ukraine stay out of NATO, but Putin rejected it and pressed ahead with his military campaign, according to three people close to the Russian leadership."

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...de-2022-09-14/
Either a crazy dissenter that enjoys 10 min of fame, or "people close to the Russian leadership" are setting the stage to replace Mr. Putin.

However, it may not be a crazy dissenter, just a dissenter that succumbed to concrete poisoning.

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Six months on from the start of the war, Kozak remains in his post as Kremlin deputy chief of staff. But he is no longer handling the Ukraine dossier, according to six of the sources who spoke to Reuters.

"From what I can see, Kozak is nowhere to be seen," said one of the six, a source close to the separatist leadership in eastern Ukraine.
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Old 14.09.2022, 13:38
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Either a crazy dissenter that enjoys 10 min of fame, or "people close to the Russian leadership" are setting the stage to replace Mr. Putin.
Maybe. But even Putin in his last speeches has only rambled about Peter the Great and "traditional Russian lands". So I guess only Vushka and Kiwi still believed in the NATO narrative
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Old 14.09.2022, 15:04
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote of the day "After the USA, Russia is the main provider of vehicles for the Ukrainian army”, Ukraine has a lot of work now servicing and repairing Russian vehicles.

Seems Kremlin now confirming Ukraine's victory in Kharkiv, trying to move the blame from Putin to the military commanders. Not sure it is a great idea to tell the Russian republic their mighty army is rubbish, but what do I know?

Russia has formed a new defense line along the Oskil River, as I posted earlier it is quite shallow at the moment. Claimed that Ukrainian troops forded the Oskil River at Borova, about 30km northeast of Izyum.

Edit: For amusement only, another video of Ukraine tractors towing Russian tanks, this time T-72B3 tank.

Last edited by marton; 14.09.2022 at 15:26.
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Old 14.09.2022, 18:01
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I posted months ago that Russia pulled its peacekeeping forces out of Armenia to reinforce its Ukraine forces.
You also falsesly claimed that the troops helping in .. was it Kazakhstan .. were there to stay.
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Old 15.09.2022, 12:08
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

The once mighty Russian empire now recruiting prisoners for the army and buying munitions from N. Korea and drones from Iran.
Who wudda thought it?

Lots of Russians complaining in social media about Ukraine publishing photos of the munitions depots they have captured, the complaint is "Why doesn't Russia shell them and destroy them, surely they know where they are?"
Good question.

Last edited by marton; 15.09.2022 at 13:46.
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Old 15.09.2022, 12:16
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The once mighty Russian empire now recruiting prisoners for the army and buying munitions from N. Korea and drones from Ira.
Who wudda thought it?
I know the Northern Irish accent does drone on, but I wouldn't go buying military equipment from them.
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Old 15.09.2022, 13:48
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I know the Northern Irish accent does drone on, but I wouldn't go buying military equipment from them.
Don't know, maybe they have more reliable and modern munitions.
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Old 15.09.2022, 14:14
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Don't know, maybe they have more reliable and modern munitions.
Probably do, I mean they probably still have Gadaffis gifts from the 80s.
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Old 15.09.2022, 22:01
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I think this war will last until at least spring of 2023. Critical factors are:
The most important factors are willingness and motivation to fight.

As long as RU occupies parts of Ukraine, and UA is willing to do the dying, and at least one sees more gain in fighting than finding some agreement, there will be no agreement.

Biden has made it clear that he's looking forward to having a prolonged war, absent a direct US/RU confrontation that's the only way to "make sure Russia can never do something like that again", as he proclaimed.

Given Selinsky's increase in popularity since February, and the stellar support he enjoys now, he has no reason personally to steer the country towards peace either. Not saying this is his primary motivation since February, but it definitely doesn't hurt. Of course UA has ample historic reasons to at long last put RU in its place. The recent successes will only have reinforced that.

Looking on from the outside, the UK will keep up its support, too. At least as long as the Tories are in power.

Poland has similar historic motivation as UA. Coupled with its location, and thus importance for logistics, that's unlikely to change regardless of the consequnces. . Isn't it odd for them to demand German reparations just now ... I guess nothing beats that thumbscrew. Its baltic neighbors are probably one single voice in support of its efforts.

Germany ... gets shamed into submission where necessary. Ironically what used to be the parties chanting "make love not war" and "Schwerter zu Pflugscharen" (make ploughs out of the swords) has to support war/defense efforts nowadays.

-------------------------------------

Russia/Putin has no reason to agree to peace either, this war doesn't happen on Russian soil. UA would have to invade Russia proper to turn that table, but that might wake up the bear, the US are unlikely to allow that level of risk. So, bottom line, this conflict will continue beyond 2023.

ETA a sidenote:
Russia invaded almost 7 months ago. UA has conscripted "recruits", and trained them, for almost the same duration - 6 months are said to be enough training under normal circumstances. Those fresh soldiers may be entering the battlefield now providing welcome reinforcements. IMHO some such would make sense of Selensky's timing of the announcement of an offensive (around Kherson).

Last edited by Urs Max; 15.09.2022 at 23:55.
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  #7477  
Old 15.09.2022, 22:54
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I think they will weather it. There are a lot of articles every day on it - I'm quite surprised you need me to explain it to you - saying that the sanctions are hurting, the retraction is forecast to be about 6% now, not 10 initially thought, but the main problem remains there is no global price cap on oil and gas, so while asia and china buy, any sanction effect hurts but its not fully destructive, and with every passing day they get more opportunity to build trade relations with countries that will cooperate, of which there are many in the asia / africa, China regions.

Plus of course, Putin can have unhappy people who can't get starbucks coffee and he doesnt give a sod. whereas here if they closed all the starbucks you'd have General Strikes and downed tools. Russians will put up with it, so while we have only a limited effect on the economy and they are still making lots of money through energy sales, I still believe we are at the most risk, not them. The clock is ticking for Europe, which will run out of fuel, while russia might get a bit of shit living for a bit, but they can carry on.
According to data published by the Russian finance ministry this week, at the end of June, the Russian budget surplus stood at 1.37 trillion rubles ($23 billion); by the end of August, it had fallen to just 137 billion ($2.3 billion.). At this rate, the surplus is likely already negative.

Russia's finance ministry expects the country to post a 1.7 trillion ruble federal budget deficit in 2022, Interfax reported in July.
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Old 16.09.2022, 00:02
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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According to data published by the Russian finance ministry this week, at the end of June, the Russian budget surplus stood at 1.37 trillion rubles ($23 billion); by the end of August, it had fallen to just 137 billion ($2.3 billion.). At this rate, the surplus is likely already negative.

Russia's finance ministry expects the country to post a 1.7 trillion ruble federal budget deficit in 2022, Interfax reported in July.
- Russia is said to have oil production costs of around $40 per barrel
- China and India get through with demanding $30-35 rebate off Brent price
- transport is assumed to cost $5-10

That puts Russia's breakeven at around $80. The average price may have been $110 for June vs perhaps $90 in August. Something like that would have reduced Russia's profit by 2/3. (Longer) transport distances will affect (reduce) transport capacity by ship and railroad.

Reducing NG sales to Europe lowered that income overproportionally as there are no other potential buyers due to lack of transport, but the costs are still there.
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Old 16.09.2022, 00:16
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Interesting stuff happening in the East too. After Putin intervenes to help out Tokayev, Tokayev instead of offering fealty like Belarus seems to have stabbed Putin in the back and declined to support Russia and made noises about helping EU with oil.

Maybe KZ is trying to leave RU's orbit too and quite provocative of CN to pre-emptively step in and warn RU:

https://eurasianet.org/china-warns-a...-putin-meeting
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Old 16.09.2022, 00:55
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Interesting stuff happening in the East too. After Putin intervenes to help out Tokayev, Tokayev instead of offering fealty like Belarus seems to have stabbed Putin in the back and declined to support Russia and made noises about helping EU with oil.

Maybe KZ is trying to leave RU's orbit too and quite provocative of CN to pre-emptively step in and warn RU:

https://eurasianet.org/china-warns-a...-putin-meeting
I am sure many countries will take advantage of Russia's perceived military weakness.
Ukraine is, of course, the elephant in the room but so long as Russia does not send significant forces to help Armenia then the perception of weakness will be strengthened.

I posted back in March to help in Ukraine "Russian troops are being pulled from local trouble spots which lack of military presence the locals are now taking advantage of, like in Tajikistan, Nagorno-Karabakh, Georgia" and now you can add Azerbaijan and Khazakstan to the list taking advantage.

Last edited by marton; 16.09.2022 at 01:15.
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