i agree with this. im not too sure about their populations though!

Crimea has been annexed and is now, from Russia's POV, part of Russia. Of course Putin could "let it go into independence", with or without another public vote, but the chance of that happening looks infinitesimally small.

A complete withdrawal won't happen.

Well, the time to have 2nd thoughts has long since passed.

At least in Germany, we're very good at fighting well beyond the point where it makes sense - and our politicians are usually quite good at selling it to the populace.

And just like with the last war, we thought (and lost), everybody pretty much knew what they were getting into, some way or the other.

As I implied: there's no way back. For these politicians.

I find it hard to believe RU would voluntarily surrender Crimea - if they leave it will be likely due to UA forcing them out and that would be a major loss for Russia.

While unlikely right now, maybe RU and UA would reach some kind of diplomatic deal on Crimea and might require some creativity to satisfy all sides.

I think you're probably right. It's all hindsight now, looking back now, the annexation of Crimea should never have been accepted. Even at the time I found it appalling how the world stood by and did nothing.

Exactly like the world stands by now.

It usually takes a while.

Cue the "Peace in our Time" clip:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KB4A7phjS_0

And back in 2014, most of the available military man-power and ordnance was deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan.

NATO is now already pretty much stretched to the limit with this little gambit of sorts.

Though, of course, Russia is stretched, too, obviously. Any further escalation would probably require very drastic measures on both sides, further impacting the civilian life.

Olaf Scholz's resistance to the delivery of larger and more powerful weapons and tanks is probably rooted in the concern to prevent providing just that context for further escalation.

I bet he wishes he could ask all those by-now dead politicians of the 60s, 70s and 80s on how to fight Russia without fighting Russia in a war.

Because, if we're not careful, the proxy-war might turn into a real war - and the last politician to have had a glimpse of an idea what that kind of war looked like is being sent to her final resting place in the Castle of Windsor right now.
And with Russian representatives conveniently being excluded from said event, any chance of an informal behind-the-scene talk were nixed before it even presented....

It was an unorthodox first ‘real’ post that’s for sure but that doesn’t necessarily make him a troll in my book.
He did actually introduce himself when he first joined the forum.
I generally prefer to give new posters the benefit of the doubt and wait until they’ve made a few posts before identifying them as a troll.

FWIW there is zero evidence that he is a dupe of a previous user, we do check.

Olaf Scholz resistance is rooted in energy and economic dependency and a geopolitical game of global significance as Russia is Germany's only resources answer to stay in the game among the great economic power competition instead of being relegated to the France/UK/Italy league.
NATO is not stretched at all, while Russia can't overrun a country whose GDP is almost 10x less than Russia's.
The only Russian asset is nuclear power and they know it, they are emptying out their garrisons along the now NATO borders of personnel and equipment because they know NATO has neither intention nor possibility to intervene (and it just shows how the war pretense was a completely false one). But obviously they're not going to use in Ukraine (which they want conquered, not wasted) and not likely elsewhere (they don't want to become another North Korea or Iran but isolated from China and India as well).

Psychological blow for Russia, Ukraine yesterday announced the liberation of Belohirivka. It is only one village but it means Russia no longer has 100% of the Luhansk Oblast.

Talking of Germany they have been doing a great job of providing medical services including flying the severely wounded back to Germany for advanced treatment.

It is claimed Russian leadership has transfered 25 billion US dollars to Turkey for safekeeping, the same as they did in 1991 before the collapse of the Soviet. Hopefully, this is more than wishful thinking.

After defeats on the frontline in Ukraine, Russia is no longer able to attract new military recruits

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09...-official-says

On the other hand, the leader of the Wagner Group was seen in various videos posted on social media calling for Russian, Tajik, Belarusian and Armenian prisoners to join the fight in Ukraine...I believe it's entirely possible that Russia is getting beaten up big time and Kremlin is denying and tells lies about the state of the war to their population. It doesn't look good at all for Russia. Of course, Crimea is a different story, I don't think Ukraine will fight over Crimea.

special military operation started at the end of winter 2022. Autumn 2023 is here and winter will be here too. Buildings will be a bit cooler over here, but not as cool as the a***s of the guys fighting a war on foreign land. So, where the much touted protests and riots start first, "Western Europe" or Russian Army?

Weather stats for Kherson from the wiki:

RU looking to rush through laws punishing desertion and other things - maybe a prelude to escalation, mobilization or formal declaration of war.

While this is a "special operation" not a war Russian soldiers are not obliged to fight. If they want to stop fighting then the worst that can happen to them is a dishonorable discharge.

Nevertheless, there are stories of Russian soldiers being labelled as deserters, hunted down, and shot by Chechens.

I do not know if the new laws will change anything in relation to this "special operation".

"According to a copy of the bill, seen by Reuters, voluntary surrender would become a crime for Russian military personnel, punishable by 10 years in prison."

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...on-2022-09-20/

i wonder if they will try to unilaterally extend contract terms to prevent people from quitting once their time is up.

I don't think that's feasible.
The dams and bridges are fairly simple to block, otherwise blow them up. The land "bridge" is only about 10 km wide and looks completely flat, possibly swampy which might make it impassable for heavy vehicles. UA has no navy, and even if, RU has quite a few subs in the Black Sea.

During the Second World War Russian soldiers were shot by their army coming right behind the front troops if they tried to surrender (my oh's grandfather experienced a terrible episode, he was a ww2 war veteran, so was one of my grandfathers but he fought in a different region of the front). They might use the same tactics now... Especially since they have a lot of troops of ethnicities from Central Asia they don't care too much about.

Strange day in Moscow: Rumors about mobilization and official annexation of the bullshit republics. Rumors about central bank governor Naibullina resigning. Stock market down 8%. Putin was scheduled to give a televised speech on Channel 1. Delayed by 2 hours. Now cancelled.

From FT: "The new legislation makes it possible for authorities to punish acts such as desertion during either a “wartime” or “mobilisation” period, rather than only after a clear declaration of war. Evading conscription and desertion will now carry a jail sentence of between five and 10 years.

The authors of the bill said such changes to the criminal code did not equate to mobilisation itself. “Mobilisation has not been announced,” the state Interfax news agency cited one official as saying.

“The Duma has just considered and adopted in their final form several changes to the criminal code at breakneck speed,” wrote high-profile lawyer Ivan Pavlov, who has previously defended Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. “Most likely, there will soon be a big announcement . . . [and] we will be able to call the war a war.”"

Also annexation is discussed, which will be interesting if territories are annexed. An attack on annexed territory would in theory be an attack on Russia and under Russian military doctrine open the option of nuclear retaliation.

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Swift retribution for those councillors calling for Putin's removal: https://www.euractiv.com/section/glo...Aq6vvoFCsmh19g

No doubt some of them will want to by falling out of window insurance.