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  #741  
Old 25.07.2014, 13:46
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Alexander Khodakovsky (who leads the Vostok battalion) affair where he said the rebels had a BUK and then withdrew the statement was to put pressure on Putin to continue support?
I admittedly didn't watch his interview, but I'd agree with you this could well be the case, as they were trying to do this before (i.e., implicate Russia), since Putin's military intervention is the only way for them to survive.

Another reason could be that many of these leaders/commanders are quite dumb and can't judge correctly full consequences of what they say.. But it is hard to say for sure without first listening to a particular guy talking.

Also, just like Putin, many of these militant leaders are cornered now, since if they don't get shot/captured by the Ukrainian army, the expectations is that they will be quietly liquidated by Putin as they know too much and pose too much danger for him.
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  #742  
Old 27.07.2014, 21:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Oops, got to watch out what you post on Facebook (ie:Vkontakte) these days:

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MOSCOW, July 25 (RIA Novosti) – A Russian soldier Vadim Grigoriev denied Thursday having posted photos in a popular social network that allegedly prove that Russia shelled Ukraine’s territory.
In a post on VKontakte on Wednesday, Grigoriev allegedly boasted of “shelling Ukraine all night” from Rostov Region and included pictures of artillery cannons and munitions.
I love his reply when questioned by the Russian media, classic

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"I know nothing,” Grigoriev told Rossiya 24 TV Channel.
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The soldier said he suspects that his account has been hacked. “Maybe, it has been hacked. I’ve heard it happens when VKontakte accounts are hacked. They often say like this,” Grigoriev said.
http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140725/191...otos-Says.html
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  #743  
Old 28.07.2014, 15:10
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

According to the UN today over 800 people in rebel held areas were killed by the rebels or simply disappeared.

Also from the FT here, "Slavyansk’s grave reveals Ukraine’s wounds" you might need to be an FT subscriber or try Google search?

Last edited by marton; 28.07.2014 at 17:21.
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  #744  
Old 28.07.2014, 17:01
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

What do people think of Robert Parry's piece? Not exactly a lightweight or shill, broke Iran-Contra. For the record, it doesn't seem improbable that idiot rebels brought down the plane, but it seems to me like the US could provide a smoking gun (no pun intended) in the form of satellite imagery, for example, and it just isn't happening. Social media "evidence" doesn't cut it. Not making accusations, just asking questions and hoping for your informed opinions.
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Old 28.07.2014, 17:14
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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What do people think of Robert Parry's piece? Not exactly a lightweight or shill, broke Iran-Contra. For the record, it doesn't seem improbable that idiot rebels brought down the plane, but it seems to me like the US could provide a smoking gun (no pun intended) in the form of satellite imagery, for example, and it just isn't happening. Social media "evidence" doesn't cut it. Not making accusations, just asking questions and hoping for your informed opinions.
Seems there are different shades of AP reporters, look here!
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  #746  
Old 28.07.2014, 17:20
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Seems there are different shades of AP reporters, look here!
See, the fact that this wasn't widespread front-page news just makes me wonder even more. Cross-check the reporters' locations, provide satellite images to back it up (how does the US not have detailed images of the whole area from the Russian border until Kiev), and you've got a slam dunk case against the rebels and Putin. You'd think CNN, BBC, and the like would be all over this report.
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  #747  
Old 28.07.2014, 17:39
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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What do people think of Robert Parry's piece? Not exactly a lightweight or shill, broke Iran-Contra. For the record, it doesn't seem improbable that idiot rebels brought down the plane, but it seems to me like the US could provide a smoking gun (no pun intended) in the form of satellite imagery, for example, and it just isn't happening. Social media "evidence" doesn't cut it. Not making accusations, just asking questions and hoping for your informed opinions.
The US government probably isn't going to release images from their military satellites, due to their secrecy and sensitivity (I imagine Russia doesn't release images from their spy satellites either):

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SBIRS is a constellation of four geosynchronous-orbit satellites, two highly elliptical Earth-orbit payloads and ground control stations that provide global infrared surveillance. Shelton would only confirm that Air Force Space Command can track strategic missiles. He said the Air Force has the capability to see smaller missiles and test activity from space, “but beyond that we can’t talk about.”
http://www.airforcetimes.com/article...s-desperation-

So far, the US has stated that they detected the launch of a SA-11 missile from inside pro-Russian territory, maybe they share the satellite imagery with other governments, but I guess the public has to accept it at face value.

Is it a "smoking gun"? Even if the US government DID release imagery, it would just show that a SA-11 was fired from inside rebel territory, so maybe not a "smoking gun" by itself. However, when you consider all the other circumstantial evidence surrounding this: rebels appealing to Russia for more powerful weapons, more weapons coming over the border at checkpoints that have been overrun by pro-Russians, a Ukrainian plane being shot down 2 days before at 6,000m (out of range of shoulder fired missiles), recorded phone calls, pictures and reports of BUK system in Torrez that day, etc.... it just all adds up and becomes hard to explain what happened in any other way (altho the "tin foil hat" crowd usually manages to find some way )

Speaking of satellite images, the US State Department did release some (non-military) images showing evidence of Russian military firing rockets into Ukraine, and Russia basically called them fakes and lies, so I wonder what good it would do even if the US did release classified military images?


http://abcnews.go.com/International/...ry?id=24732228
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  #748  
Old 02.08.2014, 18:23
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

http://en.ria.ru/world/20140801/1915...Ukrainian.html

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UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay told reporters in Geneva on Thursday that the United Nations did not possess any hard evidence that Russia supplied independence supporters in eastern Ukraine with weapons.
No hard evidence, so what's the reason for the sanctions then?

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The Russian ministry also said it was surprised by the fact that Western media had ignored Pillay's statement.
What a surprise.
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  #749  
Old 02.08.2014, 20:06
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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http://en.ria.ru/world/20140801/1915...Ukrainian.html



No hard evidence, so what's the reason for the sanctions then?



What a surprise.
Can you please give a link to the full report? Is it the same report that the Russian Foreign ministry 3 days ago just called distorted and hypocritical?

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The UN is deliberately distorting facts in its latest report on the situation in Ukraine, the Russian Foreign Ministry stated.

“The main conclusion: the report is not objective and is even hypocritical. Lukashevich said.
http://rt.com/news/176340-russia-report-un-ukraine/
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  #750  
Old 03.08.2014, 00:21
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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No hard evidence, so what's the reason for the sanctions then?
Typical course of events:

1. OSCE observers/UN: "We were unable to find necessary evidences of XYZ because Russia / pro-Russian militants didn't allow us into the areas/regions we wanted to see."

2. Russian media: "OSCE/UN didn't find any evidences of XYZ! Sanctions are completely unjustified!"

3. Typical Russian: "Sanctions are unjustified! US just having a go and tries to destroy our great country and our great nation! We won't let this happen!"

Haha

Russia - man up, there will be more sh** coming your way for years to come, for the things you have already done and is doing now. As someone else has said: "Russia as a brand is dead.", which sums up the situation pretty well for me..
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  #751  
Old 04.08.2014, 00:40
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Here is examples of Russian-supplied artillery that pro-Russian militans use in Ukraine. Pictures were taken yesterday near Donetsk.

And these are not even the deadliest - they also have at least 30 of these rocket launchers (not counting the ones Russian army fires directly from its territory several times a day). Recent video filmed by them 2 days ago.

Last edited by Felix.; 04.08.2014 at 00:50.
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  #752  
Old 04.08.2014, 07:59
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

It seems there is little hope for a reconciliation between Russia and Ukraine. At least not as long as Putin is around and willing to run for presidential term in 2018...
Btw, Russia is obviously not a dead brand, who said that?
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  #753  
Old 04.08.2014, 11:01
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Btw, Russia is obviously not a dead brand, who said that?
Max Skibinsky, Sergei Brin, ...

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Is the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 the end of Russia as a brand? That's what one of the most successful Russian professionals in the tech industry, Max Skibinsky, thinks:

Personally, I’m thinking to start calling myself Euro-Slavic instead of “Russian”. It’s a flimsy defense, yet Russian brand, after already being tainted with gulag and the rest of its toxic legacy, is now synonymous with mass murder of innocent civilians. There is nothing of value left to recover.

Skibinsky wouldn't be the first Russian tech guru to give up on his native country. Sergei Brin, the Google Inc. co-founder, famously called Russia "Nigeria with snow" in a 2003 interview with Red Herring magazine, adding that Russia's rulers were "a bunch of criminal cowboys" trying to control the world's energy supply.
http://www.bloombergview.com/article...russia-s-brand
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  #754  
Old 04.08.2014, 13:17
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Right...but... Euro-Slavic? I would like to see who'd dare to belittle (and manage not to make a total fool of himself) Sergei Brin because of his origins...Well, it's sad because intelligent and moral people are ashamed of those gulag and others things, yet is none of their fault.
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Old 04.08.2014, 13:50
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

From today's Guardian here "Russia is conducting military exercises with more than 100 aircraft in the country's central and western districts, in a show of strength near the border with Ukraine.

A Russian air force spokesman, Igor Klimov, told the Interfax news agency that aircraft including MiG-31 fighter jets and Russia's newest frontline bomber, the Su-34, would be used in the exercises and that the aircraft would conduct missile practice.

The exercises were planned to take place from Monday to Thursday.
"

Putin seems determined balance on the cliff edge; I hope he doesn't drag us all into something terrible and that NATO avoid the temptation to hold exercises at the same time.
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Old 04.08.2014, 15:11
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

NATO doesn't have anything with which to exercise. Russia may not have the largest standing army, but for some time now western powers have been evolving their military forces for Asymmetric wars such as Iraq and Afghanistan. Russia on the other hand has been strengthening its general war capabilities. British Generals have warned about this focus for a while now. The net result is that there really isn't anything militarily that can be placed in front of Putin that would overly concern him.....America knows this, hence their current strategy.

I don't think we are heading for World War 3....that is a step too far even for Putin. We should however be considering the effect of a new Cold War instead, as Russia seeks to increase its influence in what it regards as 'its half of Europe'. Its grip over natural resources in the area (both actual and logistically) must now be starting to worry some countries such as Germany, due to their heavy reliance on the likes of Gasprom. This also makes for a tricky prospect at a time that Russia appears to be building bridges with the ever resource hungry China.

This then leads to the question "What meaningful sanctions can be imposed on Russia and by whom?" We've been here before!
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Old 04.08.2014, 16:02
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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NATO doesn't have anything with which to exercise. Russia may not have the largest standing army, but for some time now western powers have been evolving their military forces for Asymmetric wars such as Iraq and Afghanistan. Russia on the other hand has been strengthening its general war capabilities. British Generals have warned about this focus for a while now. The net result is that there really isn't anything militarily that can be placed in front of Putin that would overly concern him.....America knows this, hence their current strategy.

I don't think we are heading for World War 3....that is a step too far even for Putin. We should however be considering the effect of a new Cold War instead, as Russia seeks to increase its influence in what it regards as 'its half of Europe'. Its grip over natural resources in the area (both actual and logistically) must now be starting to worry some countries such as Germany, due to their heavy reliance on the likes of Gasprom. This also makes for a tricky prospect at a time that Russia appears to be building bridges with the ever resource hungry China.

This then leads to the question "What meaningful sanctions can be imposed on Russia and by whom?" We've been here before!
About "Russia appears to be building bridges with the ever resource hungry China." Except that Russia is very much the junior partner and they are clearly competing with China for resources in some areas, for example, the Kazakhstan (former Soviet republic) – China pipeline.
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Old 04.08.2014, 16:11
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Yes, but Kazakhstan is a leading member of the EEU, along with Russia and Belarus....in other words they are already within the sphere of Russian influence. These countries are already aligned with Russia, and the overall original intention of Putin's actions in Ukraine was to bring them in line also. Russia does not care about partnering China, any more than China would want to partner anyone, but it needs the income from selling resources.
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Old 04.08.2014, 17:49
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Yes, but Kazakhstan is a leading member of the EEU, along with Russia and Belarus....in other words they are already within the sphere of Russian influence. These countries are already aligned with Russia, and the overall original intention of Putin's actions in Ukraine was to bring them in line also. Russia does not care about partnering China, any more than China would want to partner anyone, but it needs the income from selling resources.
You are joking, Russia wanted to buy the Kazakhstan oil and gas but the Chinese beat them to it. China is also buying vast quantities from other ex Soviet countries.

If these ex Soviet countries are "within the sphere of Russian influence" then Russia needs to refresh their influence. Reality is these countries are moving away from Russia and selling ever more to China.

Russia is today nothing like the world power that the Soviet Union was at its peak.

Russia recently signed a huge deal to supply China with gas but first they have to build a new pipeline for at least +$50 Billion; interesting to see where they will raise the necessary funding now Western banks are closed to them? And how many years it will take them to complete the pipeline, meanwhile China is building pipelines across Asia like crazy.
I do not see China investing billions here like they do for the ex Soviet countries?

Read here for more background.
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Old 04.08.2014, 19:27
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Russia is today nothing like the world power that the Soviet Union was at its peak.
You know, that's what worries me. Nothing is quite so dangerous a not-quite-superpower with a chip on their shoulders.
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