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  #7581  
Old 21.09.2022, 15:59
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

So in essence;

- Get referenda to change Southern Ukraine to be now officially Russia
- Use 300k troops to defend.
- If Ukraine concentrates troops for an offensive, drop a tactical nuke because you're defending Russian territory.

So now it will be a war of attrition. Sad.
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  #7582  
Old 21.09.2022, 17:07
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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So in essence;

- Get referenda to change Southern Ukraine to be now officially Russia
- Use 300k troops to defend.
- If Ukraine concentrates troops for an offensive, drop a tactical nuke because you're defending Russian territory.

So now it will be a war of attrition. Sad.
Invasion 7 months ago was with a bit less than 200K troops was a logistics mess. Russians could not capture Kvyy. Somehow, 7 months later with a lot less war material and less capable people in command, logistics for additional 300K troops will work.

Ain't no such thing as tactical nuke, bombs are powerful. The ones dropped in Hiroshima (Little Boy - 15 kilotons TNT) and Nagasaki (Fat Man - 21 kilotons TNT) are well within the blast yield of "tactical nukes". Just check the damage they did. The "tactical" description comes from a more useful delivery method in combat context: missiles or artillery shells. No need to fly a heavy and slow bomber over the objective. But, they can do a lot of damage in unexpected places.
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  #7583  
Old 21.09.2022, 18:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

While Putin delayed his mobilisation speech 1 day, Kazakhstan prez declared they're embracing liberalism

It's very interesting to see a nation with a slightly similar history to Ukraine (ex-USSR) to raise their middle finger to Putin. Kazakhstan is not taking a subordinate role to Russia. It's more or less then same defiance to the idea of being a Russian puppet that Ukraine displayed and motivated the invasion earlier this year.

What is Putin going to do? Launch a special operation in Kazakhstan too? So, a few lines from Kazakhstan prez from yesterday, full editorial on the link:

Quote:
In a state-of-the-nation address earlier this month, I announced I would seek a democratic mandate to implement a vision for a fairer, more open Kazakhstan. And as my country heads to the polls in the coming months, I believe we must resist the instinct to turn inward amid these turbulent global times.

There is simply no viable alternative to globalization, interdependence and the international rules-based order.....Throughout our history — and particularly since our independence — we’ve always taken the view that disagreements with neighbors must be approached constructively, and they need not lead to a breakdown in communication, cooperation or trust.

As a result, Kazakhstan, and Central Asia more widely, provide a strong case study of major powers’ ability to work in alignment, in pursuit of their interests that are to the benefit of the region’s people.

Moreover, we believe that such principles of openness and cooperation are just as valuable in the international sphere as they are domestically. Indeed, this spirit has defined the path of internal reform that my administration has set out.

And even in the face of major international pressures, which have created difficulties in our country — and others — we won’t turn inward or opt for isolation.

Instead, we are doubling down on the liberal, international, open policies that have driven such a dramatic increase in standards of living around the world.

My country is at a crossroads. If we fail to answer the critical questions that face us at this juncture, we risk falling into the “middle income trap” and, in the process, disappointing an entire generation of optimistic, energetic and ambitious young citizens.
https://www.politico.eu/article/kaza...tch-of-reform/
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  #7584  
Old 21.09.2022, 18:39
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I would assume they don't start with "old" people, I'd think they'd start with people who left the military less than 5 years ago. Then those at 10 years, etc.
But I think you're right about the equipment, I would be more worried about the cold than the enemy.
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  #7585  
Old 21.09.2022, 18:57
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Regarding mobilizing your troops and invade a country in this geographical area in autumn / winter: would Putin realize that he is doing a Napoleon / Hitler?
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  #7586  
Old 21.09.2022, 20:34
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Invasion 7 months ago was with a bit less than 200K troops was a logistics mess. Russians could not capture Kvyy. Somehow, 7 months later with a lot less war material and less capable people in command, logistics for additional 300K troops will work.

Ain't no such thing as tactical nuke, bombs are powerful. The ones dropped in Hiroshima (Little Boy - 15 kilotons TNT) and Nagasaki (Fat Man - 21 kilotons TNT) are well within the blast yield of "tactical nukes". Just check the damage they did. The "tactical" description comes from a more useful delivery method in combat context: missiles or artillery shells. No need to fly a heavy and slow bomber over the objective. But, they can do a lot of damage in unexpected places.
300k is more than enough if all they're doing is holding defensive positions. And things such as tanks and jets aren't as needed as much for defensive operations.

And tactical nukes are a thing - designed primarily for battlefield deployment. However, I grant that they can easily be used for strategic targets too.

If Russia keeps what they have then they've secured water supplies to Crimea, and communications to Crimea is no longer vulnerable to having only one bridge to Russia. At that stage Putin can say he's won the special operation that he was goaded to start because Crimea's water had been cut off.

Russia doesn't need to go on any wasteful offensive again. Ukraine might want to but it would be difficult to make an offensive decisive. So all I can see is ongoing skirmishes along entrenched lines until one side or another gets fed up with the attrition.
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  #7587  
Old 21.09.2022, 20:43
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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300k is more than enough if all they're doing is holding defensive positions. And things such as tanks and jets aren't as needed as much for defensive operations.

And tactical nukes are a thing - designed primarily for battlefield deployment. However, I grant that they can easily be used for strategic targets too.

If Russia keeps what they have then they've secured water supplies to Crimea, and communications to Crimea is no longer vulnerable to having only one bridge to Russia. At that stage Putin can say he's won the special operation that he was goaded to start because Crimea's water had been cut off.

Russia doesn't need to go on any wasteful offensive again. Ukraine might want to but it would be difficult to make an offensive decisive. So all I can see is ongoing skirmishes along entrenched lines until one side or another gets fed up with the attrition.
But Russia neither holds all of Donbas nor all of "Novorossiya". And they will have a hard time keeping what they have - with Ukraine's advantages in equipment, personnel and motivation.

I don't think this mobilization will lead to anything i the near to mid term on the battlefield. But it shows that Putin felt he needed to do something to please the nationalist nutters in the siloviki rather than the streets. Which is not a great sign of where things stand in the Kremlin.
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  #7588  
Old 21.09.2022, 21:24
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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300k is more than enough if all they're doing is holding defensive positions. And things such as tanks and jets aren't as needed as much for defensive operations.

And tactical nukes are a thing - designed primarily for battlefield deployment. However, I grant that they can easily be used for strategic targets too.

If Russia keeps what they have then they've secured water supplies to Crimea, and communications to Crimea is no longer vulnerable to having only one bridge to Russia. At that stage Putin can say he's won the special operation that he was goaded to start because Crimea's water had been cut off.

Russia doesn't need to go on any wasteful offensive again. Ukraine might want to but it would be difficult to make an offensive decisive. So all I can see is ongoing skirmishes along entrenched lines until one side or another gets fed up with the attrition.
Crimea's water was cut off in 2014 and this caused Putin to invade in 2022
Yet another fake excuse for this brutal Russian invasion.
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  #7589  
Old 21.09.2022, 21:27
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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But Russia neither holds all of Donbas nor all of "Novorossiya". And they will have a hard time keeping what they have - with Ukraine's advantages in equipment, personnel and motivation.

I don't think this mobilization will lead to anything i the near to mid term on the battlefield. But it shows that Putin felt he needed to do something to please the nationalist nutters in the siloviki rather than the streets. Which is not a great sign of where things stand in the Kremlin.
They don't need to take all of Donbas or Novorossiya. They just need to have established defensive positions. Why advance any further to conquer indefensible farmland?

I agree nothing will happen in the mid-term. It will stay attritional until Ukraine run out of men, Russia runs out of patience, or the West feels uncomfortable and asks for its heating back. I don't think anyone really knows what the morale is like in Russia, so I'm not prepared to say who will blink first.
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  #7590  
Old 21.09.2022, 21:33
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Well, of course, Putin would not threaten his puppet; Trump would have simply given Ukraine to Putin.

Quote:
Former President Trump responded Wednesday to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hinting at being willing to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, saying that the conflict should never have happened and that it could lead to a world war.

Trump said on his social media platform Truth Social that the conflict would not have come to pass if he were still in the Oval Office.
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  #7591  
Old 21.09.2022, 21:40
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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They don't need to take all of Donbas or Novorossiya. They just need to have established defensive positions. Why advance any further to conquer indefensible farmland?

I agree nothing will happen in the mid-term. It will stay attritional until Ukraine run out of men, Russia runs out of patience, or the West feels uncomfortable and asks for its heating back. I don't think anyone really knows what the morale is like in Russia, so I'm not prepared to say who will blink first.
Most Russian soldiers died before they reached their defensive positions.
Anyway, it has turned out Ukraine is very good at diving in between the defensive positions and then running around the lightly defended rear areas, causing mayhem, blocking supply routes and exploiting the poor military management

"Russia runs out of patience"? and when they do they will withdraw?
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  #7592  
Old 21.09.2022, 21:59
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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300k is more than enough if all they're doing is holding defensive positions. And things such as tanks and jets aren't as needed as much for defensive operations.
Feeding and keeping warm 300K people at the end of supply lines is the challenge here.

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And tactical nukes are a thing - designed primarily for battlefield deployment. However, I grant that they can easily be used for strategic targets too.
According to military theorists, tactical just means "applied to military objectives". In reality, the boundary between military and civilian targets is almost non-existent because battles are fought within city boundaries.
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Old 21.09.2022, 22:02
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

This whole war centres on what is going on inside Pootin's head, what this is few if any really know. But right now his actions indicate:

*What China thinks, matters to him: He has offered up some reflective self-criticism after meeting Xi, probably to appease their discomfort with the war and how it is going.
*He is backed into a corner, internationally and domestically: Failure isn't an option for the hardliners backing him, so he needs to keep their hopes up, even if it means sending good, young men to the slaughter
*He may be open to diplomacy: It could be an opportunity to negotiate peace, but it is unlikely Russia will concede any pre-invasion gains, so this will not fly with the Ukrainians, who are obviously riding high on recent counter-offensives.
*Vlad has to be very careful with the mobilisation. Most soldiers have mothers, wives, siblings or children, many of whom are dependent on them to put food on the table.


The threat of nukes is real but unlikely: that is lose/lose for everyone.
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  #7594  
Old 21.09.2022, 22:25
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Crimea's water was cut off in 2014 and this caused Putin to invade in 2022
Yet another fake excuse for this brutal Russian invasion.
It's not a "fake excuse". It is quite possibly the real reason why the brutal invasion was started in 2022.

Without the water access, Crimea was slowly but surely becoming a desert. Matters were coming to a head and had to be resolved.

If you want a full "excuse", then the argument he uses is that Crimea was only part of Ukraine by accident. It belonged to Russia between 1793 and 1954. It was given to the Ukraine Soviet Republic in 1954 as part of administrative redistricting, and that was not corrected when the USSR broke up.

I personally think it is an awful argument. Even if Crimea was Russian, it does not justify invasion, occupation and ethnic cleansing of large swathes of Ukraine. He could have resolved things by handing Crimea back, but he chose a different route.
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  #7595  
Old 21.09.2022, 22:26
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Feeding and keeping warm 300K people at the end of supply lines is the challenge here.

According to military theorists, tactical just means "applied to military objectives". In reality, the boundary between military and civilian targets is almost non-existent because battles are fought within city boundaries.
Indeed, reliable supply lines will be key here and Russia has failed several times, remember the 90Km convoy that Ukraine blocked and heavily depleted.

Food for thought; tactical nukes have been around for over half a century but have never been used.
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  #7596  
Old 21.09.2022, 22:44
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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It's not a "fake excuse". It is quite possibly the real reason why the brutal invasion was started in 2022.

Without the water access, Crimea was slowly but surely becoming a desert. Matters were coming to a head and had to be resolved.

If you want a full "excuse", then the argument he uses is that Crimea was only part of Ukraine by accident. It belonged to Russia between 1793 and 1954. It was given to the Ukraine Soviet Republic in 1954 as part of administrative redistricting, and that was not corrected when the USSR broke up.

I personally think it is an awful argument. Even if Crimea was Russian, it does not justify invasion, occupation and ethnic cleansing of large swathes of Ukraine. He could have resolved things by handing Crimea back, but he chose a different route.
The Crimea water canal starts at Tavriis'k, Kherson Oblast which was within range of the Ukraine artillery since June so I would not expect it to be delivering water for much longer.
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  #7597  
Old 21.09.2022, 22:54
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

If this is true (?), regions of Russia are implementing laws stipulating that no-one with previous military service ("reserves") can leave even their oblast.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...70516036800512

Also, reports of a 35 km traffic jam at the Finnish border.
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  #7598  
Old 21.09.2022, 23:50
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Before the „partial mobilization“ decision, the Russian military in Ukraine were mostly contractors and could go home after their 3-month contracts expired. Rotating people every 3 months was not convenient and caused disruption. But now the new mobilization law allows keeping people in the army as long as the fighting is ongoing. There is no going home for the Russian soldiers any time soon.
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  #7599  
Old 22.09.2022, 00:08
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Shoygu said that despite the mobilisation any conscripts will stay on Russian territory.
I wonder if this is double talk; if Russia annexes Ukraine territory then they can claim any conscripts sent there have not left Russian territory.
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Old 22.09.2022, 01:00
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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If this is true (?), regions of Russia are implementing laws stipulating that no-one with previous military service ("reserves") can leave even their oblast.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...70516036800512

Also, reports of a 35 km traffic jam at the Finnish border.
Now videos of the 35Km jam

Here is an animated reconstruction of flights out of St Petersburg and Moscow the last couple of days
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