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Old 27.09.2022, 01:40
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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  #7642  
Old 27.09.2022, 07:57
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

The video that you posted doesn’t open, fixed that for you.
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Old 27.09.2022, 09:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Soon to be joined at the front by Cary-Hiroyuki Tagawa, Steven Segal, and Gerard Depardieu.
It made me chuckle to imaging Segal being called up and doing some Aikido on the front lines of the Donbass. Maybe an idea for his next direct to video production.
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Old 27.09.2022, 12:03
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I saw that Snowden was finally granted a RU passport. Does anyone know whether naturalized persons are eligible/required to join the army?
Soon to be joined at the front by Cary-Hiroyuki Tagawa, Steven Segal, and Gerard Depardieu.
Snowden wasn't exactly spoilt for choice of asylum countries.
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Old 27.09.2022, 13:02
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Perhaps you did not see the news reports where Xi Jinping President of the People's Republic of China came out strongly in favour of an independent Kazakhstan and implied they are under Chinese protection.
Now that's an interesting development. I think there's more to lose for Russia than Ukraine. It does look like a very late disintegration of the Soviet Union.

In a future - not so improbable - scenario, next thing we may hear is that Kazachs are actually Chinese.

So far: well played by China. Nobody even thinks of the pandemic anymore (all is forgotten), and nobody will blink an eye if they take under "protectorate" any other country.
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Old 27.09.2022, 13:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Now that's an interesting development. I think there's more to lose for Russia than Ukraine. It does look like a very late disintegration of the Soviet Union.

In a future - not so improbable - scenario, next thing we may hear is that Kazachs are actually Chinese.

So far: well played by China. Nobody even thinks of the pandemic anymore (all is forgotten), and nobody will blink an eye if they take under "protectorate" any other country.
If Kazakhstan asserts his independence supported by China, that leaves 4 ex-USSR countries isolated from Russia. The imperial ambitions of Putin are going down in flames.

Putin is forced to make a big show in Ukraine to distract people from these developments...and that's before people around Chechnya and Georgia make some moves after perceiving weakness in Moscow.

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Old 27.09.2022, 15:32
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Now that's an interesting development. I think there's more to lose for Russia than Ukraine. It does look like a very late disintegration of the Soviet Union.

In a future - not so improbable - scenario, next thing we may hear is that Kazachs are actually Chinese.

So far: well played by China. Nobody even thinks of the pandemic anymore (all is forgotten), and nobody will blink an eye if they take under "protectorate" any other country.
Russia/SU has/had an important role in holding together disparate people across a large geographic area. A weakened RU does create a risk of breakaway regions and troubles ahead if factions start to announce independence and/or start to fight over control of resources (not to mention those that host nuclear weapons).

KZ is also very important to China. They invested heavily there and the country provides a lot of energy transit (unlike EU/Germany, China has at least tried to diversify energy/commodity suppliers).
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  #7648  
Old 27.09.2022, 16:51
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

And now both Nordstream 1 and 2 started leaking in three places on the same day. Would be interesting if other under-sea pipelines develop such leaks...
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Old 27.09.2022, 17:13
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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And now both Nordstream 1 and 2 started leaking in three places on the same day. Would be interesting if other under-sea pipelines develop such leaks...
There's one between poland and germany that the paper says passes through russia ? Is this right ? it would mean they could put a leak in that and it would have a real material effect wouldnt it ?
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Old 27.09.2022, 17:35
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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And now both Nordstream 1 and 2 started leaking in three places on the same day. Would be interesting if other under-sea pipelines develop such leaks...
Assuming it was sabotage, an interesting question is who did it?
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Old 27.09.2022, 17:49
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Assuming it was sabotage, an interesting question is who did it?
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The first leak, through Nord Stream 2, was detected on Monday evening in the pipeline's Danish section of the Baltic Sea, around the island of Bornholm, after a "major pressure drop."

Hours later, two leaks were identified on different sections of Nord Stream 1: one in the Danish economic zone and another one in the Swedish economic zone of the Baltic Sea.
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2...ream-gas-leaks

Considering there's an ongoing war, and pipeline being an strategic asset, it must have been under 24/7 surveillance. German, Denmark and Sweden government have some explaining to do.

So, several possibilities. They truly don't know, which is an embarrassment for intelligence organizations. They know but don't want to tell publicly to avoid escalation, which is also a problem. Or they know and tell it, which increases pressure. Place your bets.
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Old 27.09.2022, 17:56
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2...ream-gas-leaks

Considering there's an ongoing war, and pipeline being an strategic asset, it must have been under 24/7 surveillance. German, Denmark and Sweden government have some explaining to do.

So, several possibilities. They truly don't know, which is an embarrassment for intelligence organizations. They know but don't want to tell publicly to avoid escalation, which is also a problem. Or they know and tell it, which increases pressure. Place your bets.
24/7 surveillance on a 1200km subsea pipeline?
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  #7653  
Old 27.09.2022, 18:07
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Blasts were registered by seismologists:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...ated-in-russia
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Old 27.09.2022, 18:09
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

My thinking: whoever did it wanted to permanently end gas exports from RU to EU via NS1/2. This rules out RU and DE.

UA is the prime beneficiary: this rules out any possibility of cutting support to UA in exchange for turning back on the taps as well as strengthening its role as gas transit country from RU to EU. It would be an incredibly ballsy move as they don't want to turn public sentiment against them and lose support from Europe.

Other energy suppliers and pipeline holders also stand to benefit. Of those US is a prime candidate as a country that also opposed NS1/2 strongly for geopolitical reasons. They could have taken the opportunity to permanently end NS1/2 while no gas was flowing and so when political backlash would be the lowest.

With an ace removed from Putin's hand, the chance of some kind of faustian bargain to turn the gas taps on has now been eliminated and the outlook for Putin's regime is looking bleak as he can no longer blackmail with gas supplies.
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Old 27.09.2022, 18:15
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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24/7 surveillance on a 1200km subsea pipeline?
Exclusive economic zones. Navies around the globe have as mandate to protect them.
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Old 27.09.2022, 19:09
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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My thinking: ...
Agreed.

UA however lacks access to those waters. The obvious helper would be Poland, they may have the means as well, but in such a case it would be better to keep UA out of the loop entirely, to avoid antagonising EU.

Other European countries ... no apparent grounds/motive, only Norway is a big fossils exporter and they can't produce too much already.

The US have motive and the means, at least generally speaking. Getting them in place may be a different story. And they're strong enough to go against anybody else's interests.

Others ... I see no country likely having the means that would dare that. Even Iran, assuming they had the means, why would they strike there?
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Old 27.09.2022, 19:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Exclusive economic zones. Navies around the globe have as mandate to protect them.
Yeah, but practically close to impossible.
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Old 27.09.2022, 19:48
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

On the Nordstream events, it is difficult to see any logic for any rational actor here - if you look at risks and rewards. Which is a very bad, dangerous sign. Like we needed more of those.
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Old 27.09.2022, 20:35
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Biden said he will find a way

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Old 27.09.2022, 21:17
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The US have motive and the means, at least generally speaking. Getting them in place may be a different story. And they're strong enough to go against anybody else's interests.

Others ... I see no country likely having the means that would dare that.
Yes, the US would be my best guess.
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