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  #7701  
Old 29.09.2022, 00:15
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

The really worst thing about this whole affair is that, now with both pipelines blown up, we have effectively eliminated all the efforts of Adenauer, Brand and Kohl at reconciliation with Russia (over the last war).
Those pipelines were always more than a bit of steel and soldering.
It was a symbol for the fact that even with 20+m deaths, you can do a fresh start, however difficult that is.

I don't think people have a grasp of just how bad that is (IMO).

70 years or reconciliation - literally gone in maybe six weeks.

It's almost as if we blew up the Holocaust Memorial in Berlin ourselves.

I'm just happy that neither of the above politicians lived long enough to witness that.

The graves and trenches we're now digging - I have no idea if we have politicians left who can make peace again. On both sides.
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  #7702  
Old 29.09.2022, 02:06
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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This is already happening. Saudi Arabia is buying Russian oil for domestic use and refining, which allows them to sell more of their own oil.
That sounds outrageous at first thought but it makes complete economic sense on the second. KSA's tankers bring oil to Europe, instead of returning empty they take a little detour and get filled up by Russia at a steep discount to what KSA sells its own for to us.

Price and virtue arbitrage at its finest.
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70 years or reconciliation - literally gone in maybe six weeks.
Yes, that happened fast. It was gone out the window pretty much immediately with the announcement of Europe's sanctions.

Biden's inactivity in preventing the war was a brilliant move because Europe's emotional reaction destroyed all cooperation between EU and RU, which had the potential of forming a third bloc able to compete with the US and China. Today that potential bloc is no longer an option, Russia is getting clobbered, and China is still busy with its own internal problems including the by-now-inane reaction to covid, its real estate markets plus its credit markets in general. Rule America!

Last edited by Urs Max; 29.09.2022 at 02:18.
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Old 29.09.2022, 09:06
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

The anti-Americanism that regularly pops up in this thread makes me sick.
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  #7704  
Old 29.09.2022, 09:06
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The really worst thing about this whole affair is that, now with both pipelines blown up, we have effectively eliminated all the efforts of Adenauer, Brand and Kohl at reconciliation with Russia (over the last war).
Those pipelines were always more than a bit of steel and soldering.
It was a symbol for the fact that even with 20+m deaths, you can do a fresh start, however difficult that is.

I don't think people have a grasp of just how bad that is (IMO).

70 years or reconciliation - literally gone in maybe six weeks.

It's almost as if we blew up the Holocaust Memorial in Berlin ourselves.

I'm just happy that neither of the above politicians lived long enough to witness that.

The graves and trenches we're now digging - I have no idea if we have politicians left who can make peace again. On both sides.
" People who forget history are doomed to repeat it." ...A throwaway line but he current crop of our finest simply have no concept of the historical significance of what those politicians achieved and why it was so important to find common ground with Russia.

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The anti-Americanism that regularly pops up in this thread makes me sick.
It has always annoyed me when I read that some people are scratching their noggins and asking why were they so stupid to make deals with Russia (and I have the groans to prove it.) when all the answers are in the history books. And I get extra exasperated with people who are all glassy eyed at the star-spangled awesomeness of the US without realizing that the bellicose American foreign policy is behind this whole mess in the first place.
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Old 29.09.2022, 09:12
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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It has always annoyed me when I read that some people are scratching their noggins and asking why were they so stupid to make deals with Russia (and I have the groans to prove it.) when all the answers are in the history books. And I get extra exasperated with people who are all glassy eyed at the star-spangled awesomeness of the US without realizing that the bellicose American foreign policy is behind this whole mess in the first place.
And as always me fellow countrymen are leading the way. It is between this and then shitting their pants because of the Russian nuclear theat. Schizophrenic.
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  #7706  
Old 29.09.2022, 09:19
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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And as always me fellow countrymen are leading the way. It is between this and then shitting their pants because of the Russian nuclear theat. Schizophrenic.
Yup! 21st Century schizoid man. That´s me!
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  #7707  
Old 29.09.2022, 12:26
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The anti-Americanism that regularly pops up in this thread makes me sick.
Without American support, Russia would have rolled over Ukraine and would now be trying to decide which neighbour to attack next.

I wonder what will happen about repairing the pipelines, I have heard quotes in the billions so who pays?

At the moment there is so much gas in the water that any ship coming near would sink.
Do the Russians even have the necessary resources? From the reputed size of the holes they probably need to replace sections of the pipe, I hope they have spares left over from the original construction but somehow doubt that.

Gazprom article here on pipeline construction, probably with such a big hole they will have pull the pipeline up to the surface to fix it?
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  #7708  
Old 29.09.2022, 13:11
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

It was reported in the Helsingin Sanomat that the Finnish border will be closed for the Russian tourists, starting today, this evening.

To me it seems cruel, I mean not allowing people who want to run away from putinism and all the misery that current Russian elite envisions for the able men and their families.

But what can I do.

People forget there are victims on both sides. This is a discussion I already had online with otherwise very reasonable people....I think I lost faith in humanity.
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Old 29.09.2022, 13:16
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

BBC reports Russia will formally annex 4 more parts of Ukraine in a ceremony on Friday...
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  #7710  
Old 29.09.2022, 13:20
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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BBC reports Russia will formally annex 4 more parts of Ukraine in a ceremony on Friday...
Not everyone agrees with this nonsense.

I have posted here interviews with Russian intellectuals and even they were afraid to express their views. And like them are also simple people, or not so simple, some of them trying to escape from Ru now that they see there's no hope there. And that it won't end any time soon.

So what do we do, close the borders?
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  #7711  
Old 29.09.2022, 13:20
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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It was reported in the Helsingin Sanomat that the Finnish border will be closed for the Russian tourists, starting today, this evening.

To me it seems cruel, I mean not allowing people who want to run away from putinism and all the misery that current Russian elite envisions for the able men and their families.

But what can I do.

People forget there are victims on both sides. This is a discussion I already had online with otherwise very reasonable people....I think I lost faith in humanity.
I thought most Russians supported the war - just that they don't want to personally die for it.

Anyway, they have a choice to resist Putin in RU, or fight for RU in Ukraine. They made their choice now.

The Ukrainians who were prevented from leaving didn't have much choice either.
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  #7712  
Old 29.09.2022, 13:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I thought most Russians supported the war - just that they don't want to personally die for it.
I think most of us confuse their proverbial fatalism and apolitical-ness (it comes from Orthodoxy, with all due respect) with silent approval. Russians know that they can't change much even if they protest, so people thought it's better to "mind your own business".
And don't forget propaganda is a "wonderful" thing, so yes, of course many of them agree with this war, albeit you don't know what they're told about this war.
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  #7713  
Old 29.09.2022, 13:41
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Without American support, Russia would have rolled over Ukraine and would now be trying to decide which neighbour to attack next.
U it?
Maybe, maybe not. There is a book „prisoners of geography“ from Tim Marshall. In one chapter It is explained why Russia HAD to take the Krim after UA stopped being friendly to Russia, and it predicts with astonishing accuracy the situation in the breakaway republics of eastern UA and why they can not stay under western influence. Perhaps, and I am speculating here, once the annexation is over things will calm down, except for an increasingly nationalistic Ukraine.
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  #7714  
Old 29.09.2022, 13:58
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The Ukrainians who were prevented from leaving didn't have much choice either.
I cannot argue with that.

In their defense, they are the aggressed/attacked country and not the other way around. This is a measure that probably every country would have taken, especially one that is not part of NATO or with a professional army etc.
Hard to judge if you're not in someone else's shoes....
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  #7715  
Old 29.09.2022, 14:04
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Red October was on TV last night. Perhaps coincidence!
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  #7716  
Old 29.09.2022, 14:41
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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BBC reports Russia will formally annex 4 more parts of Ukraine in a ceremony on Friday...
What is the old proverb? Possession is 9/10ths of the law...

And I bet as soon as this is formalised, Putin will say he is ready to negotiate => peace deal => turn the gas back on.(if there are any pipes left to suppy that is)
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  #7717  
Old 29.09.2022, 14:48
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Do the Russians even have the necessary resources? From the reputed size of the holes they probably need to replace sections of the pipe, I hope they have spares left over from the original construction but somehow doubt that.
Why would Russia repair it when it's decommissioned, and additional sabotage could happen anytime? Russia would bear the costs without benefit, and would probably turn itself into a modern version of Sisyphus.
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It was reported in the Helsingin Sanomat that the Finnish border will be closed for the Russian tourists, starting today, this evening.

To me it seems cruel, I mean not allowing people who want to run away from putinism and all the misery that current Russian elite envisions for the able men and their families.
The Finnish government's priority is to protect Finland and its population. While some Russians will indeed be running from Putin, there's always a risk that many don't, that they're some kind of fifth column.
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  #7718  
Old 29.09.2022, 14:55
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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It was reported in the Helsingin Sanomat that the Finnish border will be closed for the Russian tourists, starting today, this evening.

To me it seems cruel, I mean not allowing people who want to run away from putinism and all the misery that current Russian elite envisions for the able men and their families.

But what can I do.

People forget there are victims on both sides. This is a discussion I already had online with otherwise very reasonable people....I think I lost faith in humanity.
Yes, there are victims on both sides. One of the worst cases was the internment of US citizens with Japanese origins in concentration camps during WW2. Hopefully, nothing like that is coming for Russian citizens living in EU countries.

Also related, we already talked about this is another thread. The conversation was about why people opened the door to Ukrainian refugees but not to Syrian, Somalia, etc refugees. It was pointed that Ukrainians are "whiter" than other refugees and people in EU are hypocrite racists. It was also pointed that Ukrainian refugees were mostly women and children, while Syrians were mostly young men that should return to fight in their country. That refugees from Ukraine were morally corrupt for uploading a selfie having fun in Zürich to social media and the privilege of a 2nd class SBB GA.....what a trip.

So, what's up these days with EU countries treating people from outside with different standards? Is it still racism?

What about ... non-Ukrainian refugees?
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  #7719  
Old 29.09.2022, 15:04
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Yes, there are victims on both sides. One of the worst cases was the internment of US citizens with Japanese origins in concentration camps during WW2. Hopefully, nothing like that is coming for Russian citizens living in EU countries.

Also related, we already talked about this is another thread. The conversation was about why people opened the door to Ukrainian refugees but not to Syrian, Somalia, etc refugees. It was pointed that Ukrainians are "whiter" than other refugees and people in EU are hypocrite racists. It was also pointed that Ukrainian refugees were mostly women and children, while Syrians were mostly young men that should return to fight in their country. That refugees from Ukraine were morally corrupt for uploading a selfie having fun in Zürich to social media and the privilege of a 2nd class SBB GA.....what a trip.

So, what's up these days with EU countries treating people from outside with different standards? Is it still racism?

What about ... non-Ukrainian refugees?
In my opinion these questions, although perfectly valid in a different context, were brought up here to question and argue against receiving Ukrainian refugees.

But to answer your question: yes, Europeans are a racist lot like any other lot, even among themselves or with each other Especially with each other.....as you can't be accused of racism. It's OK to bash and denigrate Europeans. And that includes Ukrainians, even Russians and Turkish people.
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Old 29.09.2022, 15:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

There's something strange going on these days. I found this opinion article quite enlightening. During Cold War people fleeing Russia were of strategic interest. The whole text is awesome, just an excerpt below.

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Europe’s Disastrous Ban on Russians. Putin’s Exiles Are Crucial to Winning the War—and to Building a Better Russia

As the long history of “other Russia” makes clear, the West ignores Russia’s exiles at its peril. If Western powers are serious about containing the Russian military threat, they will need a strategy that goes beyond visa bans and facile assumptions about the “whole of Russian society.” First, European governments need to understand that there are already large Russian communities abroad, including in their own countries, thanks to the large-scale emigration during preceding decades. As important, the exile community is another battlefield—perhaps one of the main battlefields—where the fight for the hearts and minds of the Russian population is taking place. And at the moment, it is far from certain that the West is winning on this battlefield. (Indeed, in contrast to the Russians fleeing the war now, some Russians who already have citizenship in European countries are far less convinced by the anti-Putin cause; thousands of Russians, for example, took part in pro-Kremlin demonstrations in Germany on May 9, Russia’s Victory Day holiday. Those pro-Kremlin protesters already have European passports, so a visa ban will do little to address that. Someone should talk to them, and there is no better messenger than Russian journalists and Russian intellectual elite.)

Second, Western governments should have a clear strategy concerning the latest iteration of “other Russia”—the intellectual elite who left the country because of Putin’s war. The West cannot ignore the existence of this new wave or just cancel it. The invasion of Ukraine—and now Putin’s mobilization—have dramatically raised the stakes. At issue is not only how to make Russia democratic in the future, but how to help defeat its invasion of Ukraine now and make other acts of aggression impossible. And with Russia soon to close its borders to Russians trying to leave, the West may be running out of time.

The West must decide what it wants to achieve with the Russians abroad. If European governments want to help undermine the Russian war effort, they have a narrowing window to do so, with tens of thousands of Russians seeking refuge in order to avoid being sent to fight in Ukraine—before Moscow stops them.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russi...s-ban-russians

Anyway, in spite that the opinion piece argues in favor of opening EU borders to people fleeing in Russia because "strategy", you won't find the word refugee. Exiles, emigres, Russians who were seeking refugee in other countries. Somehow editors are still not at ease with publishing Russian refugee.
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