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  #7801  
Old 04.10.2022, 10:48
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Just LOL!
i think it was this part that pissed them off and led to some accusing him of being a 'traitor' :

Russia is doing partial mobilization. They go to full war mobilization if Crimea is at risk. Death on both sides will be devastating.

Russia has >3 times population of Ukraine, so victory for Ukraine is unlikely in total war. If you care about the people of Ukraine, seek peace.


https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/...7BEyHOfkg&s=19
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  #7802  
Old 04.10.2022, 10:51
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

of course, once ukraine collapses and western countries slowly begin to abandon them they will also be accused of being "traitors"
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  #7803  
Old 04.10.2022, 11:04
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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of course, once ukraine collapses and western countries slowly begin to abandon them they will also be accused of being "traitors"
...and once Russia collapses? Bankruptcy looms...
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  #7804  
Old 04.10.2022, 11:54
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Russia is doing partial mobilization. They go to full war mobilization if Crimea is at risk. Death on both sides will be devastating.

Russia has >3 times population of Ukraine, so victory for Ukraine is unlikely in total war. If you care about the people of Ukraine, seek peace.

1. It's not clear whether it is politically possible for RU to fully mobilize
2. Even if they do, the Russians are in Russia so there not exactly in the right place to fight. We've seen the columns of tanks waiting to be blown up and similar logistics issues will apply
3. RU currently has inferior force generation and while there are potentially more people to fight, getting them trained, equipped and motivated enough to be effective fighters is a task that RU doesn't seem to be able to get done effectively any time soon
4. Even if RU managed to equip, train and move conscripts to the front line, I'd wager they are less than 3 times effecive as UA at fighting and so will not prevail anyway.
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  #7805  
Old 04.10.2022, 13:10
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Is there any clarity on what territory exactly the Russians claim they have annexed? It looks like Peskov doesn't know and there "accession treaties" don't say either.
For amusement
Senior Zaporizhia Occupation Administration official Vladimir Rogov was more explicit: he claimed on October 2 that the Soviet administrative boundaries of Zaporizhia Oblast now belong to Russia and will be administered from the regional capital, Zaporizhzhia City, which is still under Ukrainian control.

Ukraine is now liberating territory in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts so quickly its difficult to keep up to date.
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  #7806  
Old 04.10.2022, 13:19
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Is Musk the new billionaire involved in politics? Wants to fill Soros's shoes?

He literally proposed this

And one answer was

IMHO, giving up territories in exchange for peace didn't work during ww2 and it probably won't work now either.
We must be nice to Musk while he is providing Starlink internet service to Ukraine.
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  #7807  
Old 04.10.2022, 13:34
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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1. It's not clear whether it is politically possible for RU to fully mobilize
2. Even if they do, the Russians are in Russia so there not exactly in the right place to fight. We've seen the columns of tanks waiting to be blown up and similar logistics issues will apply
3. RU currently has inferior force generation and while there are potentially more people to fight, getting them trained, equipped and motivated enough to be effective fighters is a task that RU doesn't seem to be able to get done effectively any time soon
4. Even if RU managed to equip, train and move conscripts to the front line, I'd wager they are less than 3 times effecive as UA at fighting and so will not prevail anyway.
i guess if there is a silver lining to war it may be that all the propaganda, narratives and fake news cease to matter; the proof will be in the pudding.
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  #7808  
Old 04.10.2022, 14:01
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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1. It's not clear whether it is politically possible for RU to fully mobilize
2. Even if they do, the Russians are in Russia so there not exactly in the right place to fight. We've seen the columns of tanks waiting to be blown up and similar logistics issues will apply
3. RU currently has inferior force generation and while there are potentially more people to fight, getting them trained, equipped and motivated enough to be effective fighters is a task that RU doesn't seem to be able to get done effectively any time soon
4. Even if RU managed to equip, train and move conscripts to the front line, I'd wager they are less than 3 times effecive as UA at fighting and so will not prevail anyway.
I think Pootin is quickly discovering that in a kleptocracy, theft and corruption are generally systemic. All that money that should have kept their military state-of-the-art and prepared is instead invested in yachts, UK mansions and football teams. Even 1.5 million army uniforms are missing (I'm guessing they were never there)
And yes, a mobilisation currently is just feet on the ground (I would say boots, but they are probably missing also). Any experienced military leader will tell you that quantity of untrained soldiers may help, but only really as cannon fodder in brute force assaults. You have to feed them and keep them in check, as they would also be the first to rebel.

Right now Pootins weaknesses are:
*Hubris/fantasy
*Yes men
*Underestimated and resolute enemy with allied support
*Nukes

But his strengths:
*A large and subservient population
*Winter
*Nukes
*Nothing to lose personally

This will bog down in the colder months, I estimate that around May next year we will have strong indicators where this is going, but not before then.
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  #7809  
Old 04.10.2022, 15:17
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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i think it was this part that pissed them off and led to some accusing him of being a 'traitor' :
Musk's tweets are all based on some version of validity of RU's aggression. I think you could originally make that point with Crimea, at least Sevastopol, but things have gone way too far for that to still apply. Russia threw every version of legitimacy out the window on February 24. The invasion also shows that any version of a peace agreement or treaty isn't worth the paper it's written on to Putin.

So, how about, instead, RU go home to save solders' lives, why doesn't he tweet that?

The notion that RU can demand a vote on secession is preposterous. People would find themselves on the floor rolling with laughter if Poland or Lithuania demanded the same on Kaliningrad.
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  #7810  
Old 04.10.2022, 15:40
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Musk may be privy to some more information on how things are going in Russia than the average Twitter-browser and Zerohedge-reader.

Is it possible that he's just concerned for the casualties a - possibly nuclear - escalation is going to bring?

You can spin that as "concerned for the six billion USD Gigafactory that he's built some 900km from the border of Ukraine".
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  #7811  
Old 04.10.2022, 16:07
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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"is right" in this context is a moral question. Morals have no place in public affairs (though of course morals may inform any given individual's position), be they domestic or international.

Countries don't have friends. They have allies with common interests, or opponents and enemies with diverging ones.
That's actually really interesting statement. Not in itself, but with a question it rises in this context.

So, Russia in this context - what is the real country here? Putin & c.o., people, or maybe the propaganda machine? When you bring that saying, whose interests do you mean?

And if the interests within one country are not the same between the government and its people, maybe then this topic is not that ethically indifferent as you wrote?

Maybe in that really particular case there is an objective evil that needs to get put down.

Just a small food for thought.

Last edited by Excad; 04.10.2022 at 16:41.
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  #7812  
Old 04.10.2022, 17:17
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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We must be nice to Musk while he is providing Starlink internet service to Ukraine.
Yep.
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  #7813  
Old 04.10.2022, 17:51
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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"is right" in this context is a moral question. Morals have no place in public affairs (though of course morals may inform any given individual's position), be they domestic or international.

Countries don't have friends. They have allies with common interests, or opponents and enemies with diverging ones.

@Excad
"always" isn't entirely true, restrictions apply, IIRC you can't leave Nato for 10 (or 20) years after joining. Thereafter it is indeed a simple matter of declaring exit.
So, Urs Max is unsurprisingly confrontational and exaggerating the old adage about countries not having friends etc.

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Only a Swiss person could write that.

You are totally wrong.

There are morals in public affairs. Invading another country can be morally wrong. Joining forces to repel that invasion can be the morally right thing to do.

Countries can learn from their mistakes. Doing nothing every time gives you absolutely no rights.
Isn’t this slightly derogatory to the Swiss in general? I hesitate to ask not only why does an often sanctimonious poster get away with it (and is encouraged by quite a few others) but would also question personal opportunism vs. proclaimed morality of other nations yet unnamed…

Of course morality plays a role in public affairs/government - as does hypocrisy on EF
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  #7814  
Old 04.10.2022, 18:12
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Kherson Oblast

Russia has abandoned Davydov Brod (for which fierce battles were fought for two months) and a number of large villages in its vicinity. Seems the Russian defense is collapsing in this area.
Ukraine is at least 20 Km further into Russian occupied territory.
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  #7815  
Old 04.10.2022, 19:44
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Regarding the gas pipeline explosions off Bornholm, you‘ve no doubt read the TA article following an interview with the long-time head (2014 to 2021) of the Ukrainian gas company "Naftogaz", Andrij Koboljew, who suspects old Soviet methods behind the mysterious leaks at Nord Stream 1 and 2.

„They have already placed the explosives during the construction of the pipeline. This method is not a Russian invention, but a legacy of the Soviet Union. At that time, it was common practice to attach explosives to any newly built critical infrastructure. Because it had to be destroyed quickly in case of war“

OK, I didn‘t read it either at first - propaganda and all that - waste of time. But, I learned today from a good Swiss friend, that such lines are also in place in Switzerland for defense reasons. Apparently there are 4 main infrastructure routes that could be blown on the push of a button by the Swiss.

Personally never knew that. So, here the link to the complete article for anyone interested:

https://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/der-spr...t-644123871656
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  #7816  
Old 04.10.2022, 21:34
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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So, Russia in this context - what is the real country here? Putin & c.o., people, or maybe the propaganda machine? When you bring that saying, whose interests do you mean?

And if the interests within one country are not the same between the government and its people, maybe then this topic is not that ethically indifferent as you wrote?
I think a country is the land area with everything that encompasses, population, infrastructure, resources, and whatnot. Its interests are defined by whoever, whichever groups, has the power to do so. Country, state, and related terms are often used synonymously.

The state (its government in the broader sense, not just the executive branch) is the country's representative and agent, also to/against other state agents. Putin, re-elected multiple times, is the internationally recognised head of Russia's state and thereby of the country.

Of course things get murky when you zoom in on the details. That applies to every state with (hundreds of) millions of people, there's no exception. Obviously the amount of murk will differ and vary.
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So, Urs Max is unsurprisingly confrontational and exaggerating the old adage about countries not having friends etc.
How come then that Germany blockaded ventilator imports during the times of utmost need if Germany's our friend? (beg your pardon if I'm wrong with assuming that's your position) Friends show themselves in times of need, Germany did the exact opposite. Germany's government prioritised its own population over Switzerland's, which is precisely what a government in a democratic country is to do as it's supposed to represent the people and work for the highest common gain.

Morals inform the laws put in place, it's one reason why murder is generally illegal. But the state in the western sense, with its separation of powers, rule of law, and whatnot, cannot function on morals per se. The Swiss Constitution may be extreme (or not) when it explicitly states that "All activities of the state are based on and limited by law." but the principle guides all western states. It's why there's more than just one layer of courts, to guarantee(!) impartial(!!!) rulings and application of said laws and regulations.

The rule of law explicitly forbids the influence of morals in the sense of arbitrary situational adjustments, these are inherently an individual and personal thing that can not be allowed to interfere. In fact state agents (at least in judiciary and prosecution) are to remove themselves if the constellation is too personal.

Otherwise you call for events like George Floyd. In all likelihood Chauvin transformed his personal morals into action when he killed Floyd.

Last edited by Urs Max; 04.10.2022 at 21:47.
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  #7817  
Old 04.10.2022, 22:56
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Russian Ministry of Defense map showing Ukraine advances in Kherson Oblast, Russian language

https://t.me/grey_zone/15253

Edit: same with English
https://mobile.twitter.com/DeuNachri...085312/photo/1

Edit: if the Russian troops Reorganisation doesn't slow down then Ukraine will be in the nuclear Power station tomorrow night.

Last edited by marton; 04.10.2022 at 23:34.
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  #7818  
Old 05.10.2022, 00:01
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Morals inform the laws put in place, it's one reason why murder is generally illegal. But the state in the western sense, with its separation of powers, rule of law, and whatnot, cannot function on morals per se. The Swiss Constitution may be extreme (or not) when it explicitly states that "All activities of the state are based on and limited by law." but the principle guides all western states. It's why there's more than just one layer of courts, to guarantee(!) impartial(!!!) rulings and application of said laws and regulations.

The rule of law explicitly forbids the influence of morals in the sense of arbitrary situational adjustments, these are inherently an individual and personal thing that can not be allowed to interfere. In fact state agents (at least in judiciary and prosecution) are to remove themselves if the constellation is too personal.

Otherwise you call for events like George Floyd. In all likelihood Chauvin transformed his personal morals into action when he killed Floyd.
Could you please translate your post into.....English? Or...logics?

What's that? Is killing/murder not a crime? Or a sinn?

I have never encountered any Swiss that didn't believe murder is a serious, capital crime or...a sinn. I tend to hang around with posh circles.
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  #7819  
Old 05.10.2022, 00:11
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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i think it was this part that pissed them off and led to some accusing him of being a 'traitor' :

Russia is doing partial mobilization. They go to full war mobilization if Crimea is at risk. Death on both sides will be devastating.

Russia has >3 times population of Ukraine, so victory for Ukraine is unlikely in total war. If you care about the people of Ukraine, seek peace.


https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/...7BEyHOfkg&s=19
Hey, Musk is a twitter clown. Remember the time here challenged Putin to one-to-one combat over Ukraine? If you don't, it was on 14.03.2022

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1503327421839417344

So, why do you expect that clown Musk became serious a few months later?

Anyway, Musk had two motives to play tricks to people: make them forget of Tesla Q3 2022 results, and make them forget about buying twitter. He excelled at distracting people from the important stuff, great clown.
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  #7820  
Old 05.10.2022, 00:47
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Edit: if the Russian troops Reorganisation doesn't slow down then Ukraine will be in the nuclear Power station tomorrow night.
Unfortunately, not. That location is on the other bank of the river Dnipro. Hopefully the time will come soon, but not just yet.
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