@marton, where did you see this assessment? The pictures looked like there were four major fires--surely the rails must at least be warped beyond use?

There are two tracks, one is back in use.

"The Russian Ministry of Transport says train traffic is now allowed on the bridge between Russia and Crimea, where a train caught fire around 6:00am on October 8. The ministry published a video of a test train with 15 cars successfully crossing the bridge. A dozen passenger trains are scheduled to cross the bridge overnight."

The other is being repaired.



A video of the repairs; https://twitter.com/i/status/1579055455430582277

The rail system in Northern Germany was offline yesterday for some hours due to distinct cuts to cables in two separate places. No trains for hours. Police are investigating, seems clear that it was deliberate acts of sabotage.

Why I put this here, I don't know. Must be Russophobia. It could of course turn out to be just criminal extorsion in case there are demands for ransom.

These rail-sabotages in Germany have been going on for some time, IIRC.

They were just not widely publicized, due to fear of copy-cats. But the outage yesterday was just too large to put it down to some oopsie and the usual incompetence of DB...

I don't doubt for a second that most of the organized groups who are "behind" this have more than enough CIs slash instigators from all kinds of government-organizations inside them. And no doubt some foreign ones, too.

Just like the FBI had to create a clearing-house so that different groups working underground in online-forums didn't chase each other's tail, a similar thing had to be done in Germany for undercover-agents in right-wing movements.

If you ever get suckered into one of these movements, ask yourself how well you actually know the other people and who might have a get-out-of-jail-free card. Because you certainly don't have one.

So you suspect organized crime behind this? Not sure how to read your post.

No. IIRC, previous sabotages were attributed to extremist groups on the left side.

What I wanted to say: most of the "extremist" groups are infiltrated by various government agencies.

Always was, always will. From both sides of the Iron Curtain, if you will.

And it's not always clear just how much of a "bystander" these agents are at any given time.

OK. Thanks. And "various" means various domestic govt institutions or various governments?

Well, where does the government end and the government institution start?

Where do you draw the line in Russia or the US?

So now we get to see Russia's response to the bridge bombing. Missile strikes on Kyiv, Lviv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia. Interestingly, they don't seem capable of hitting meaningful targets like the president's office, ministries or airports. So they randomly hit intersections and residential buildings.

Targeting isn't that simple it seems.

But hey - we knew that since Wernher von Braun fired the first missiles towards London, right?

as I said, such acts should either be condemned or condoned. it should not be dependent on which side committed it.
i thought i made it clear that i think ultimately such acts should be "condoned" as they are an unfortunate part of war.

its not that "interesting" nor difficult: the same rules should apply for both sides.

Killing and wounding civilians is bestial.

Having said that "more of the same" is a pathetic response. Russia is suffering from a shortage of precision weapons and a lack of air superiority so cannot hit priority targets.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Sunday dismissed the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons in retaliation for the bridge blast so one wonders if Putin's nuclear threats are all bluff.

China has expressed hope that the situation in Ukraine will be “de-escalated soon,” following apparent Russian strikes on the capital Kyiv on Monday. Chinese MOFA spokesperson Mao Ning said China had noted reports of both the explosion on the Kerch bridge linking Crimea with mainland Russia on Saturday and Monday’s strikes on Kyiv.

Mao reiterated China’s position on the situation in Ukraine, stressing China has “always maintained that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected.”

Oooh, that go for Taiwan? Pootie didn't get a b'day shoutout from Xi Jinping.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...bridge/671693/

Taiwan is a bit more complicated, isn't it?

As of April 2022, 13 countries and Vatican City/Holy See have recognized Taiwan as a sovereign country:

Country Year Relations
Belize 1989-present
Guatemala 1933-present
Haiti 1956-present
Holy See (Vatican City) 1942-present
Honduras 1985-present
Marshall Islands 1998-present
Nauru 1980-2002, 2005-present
Palau 1999-present
Paraguay 1957-present
Saint Kitts and Nevis 1983-present
Saint Lucia 1984-1997, 2007-present
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 1981-present
Tuvalu 1979-present

You, especially greenmount, make wanting to be helpful rather difficult.

But I offer you a deal:
Show me what makes you assume, with good reason, that I support Russia's invasion, and I tell you where I recently posted my position on it. Just to be clear: The notion that this has nothing to do with morals is not such a judgement.

The Chinese position is that Taiwan is part of China and that China's integrity should be respected.

Yeah, well my Taiwanese friends feel otherwise...that's why my comment was tongue in cheek. Maybe we need an emoji.

Russia's doctrine is still that nukes are for deterrence only.

We've had the "fear the nukes!" just a few months ago in spring. Now they're brought forth once more, the media need more viewers and clicks.

This, its such a hype job. It’s almost as if they are rooting for it.

This could be one explanation why

Nuclear threats are nuclear threats. So the media reporting on it is normal and their job.

I don't believe reading "doctrine" tells us much. For one, doctrines tend to be fuzzy and deliberately leave things open to interpretation. Then, they may mean something in times of a stable regime, ideally founded on some form of consensus culture (even if this is at least a politburo type of group). Russia looks like an increasingly unstable regime with increasing infighting amid realization that there is no path to winning this war.

So far, the Russians have tried to escalate including threatening nuclear, but they have not moved them out of their depots. But with no sign of any willingness to back down, they are moving further down a road that only gets more narrow. If you follow their media, they still demand Ukraine's surrender.

So while the likelihood of a nuclear escalation is probably still quite low, it certainly is a lot higher than we would find acceptable. I don't think that global nuclear war is remotely realistic, but the use of "small" nukes might become a possibility. The Russians don't want to go there so far, but again their lane looks like a car crash waiting to happen.

Things will get worse before they get better.