On a less serious note, this picture is hilarious. Just saw it somewhere on Twitter, unclear from when and at which occasion. But I am ready to bet one kidney that the guybin charge of holding the umbrella didn't have a great career afterwards.

Putin does not really understand the Ukrainians and believes his own lies about them.

Targetting the civilian infrastructure is wasting ammunition that he would better direct against military targets. It is reported most of the electricity outages are now fixed and it will take much more than such inconveniences to make people forget what Russian troops have perpetrated against friends, relatives, parents and children.

Heavy rain in Ukraine tonight inhibiting both satellite and drone surveillance so maybe we will see some more Ukraine advances.

It is also reported that Ukraine stops all power exports to EU. So I hold my enthusiasm.

The hit to the bridge is another embarrasing and public setback for Putin. It should now be clear to those inside Russia, that RU is better off without Putin. There may come a time where Putin himself sees that it would be in his own best interest to step down and if/when that happens, we might see a leadership change.

The thing to consider here is that Pootin has isolated himself from moderate critics and surrounded himself with hardliners. These are the ones in the best position to take over if Vlad suddenly falls out a window.

Sure it will be good if Pootin goes, just his replacement may be even worse.

It's interesting that in Iran people have the guts to protest against the mullahs and the regime while risking to have the same awful fate as the Russians but we don't see that happening in Russia yet....not at this scale anyway.

I might have been wrong all along then: maybe they do agree with Putin's plans and actions. How sad.

I am not sure that any replacement would see continuing with a losing war would be an attractive long term career option.

I have been saying this all along. Putin is the moderate here and there a lot of very nasties waiting in the wing should he be ousted.
And on the homefront it seems to be a given that we are in store for energy shortages and energy rationing this winter and in some Gemeinden the local government is urging Bürger to prepare for blackouts and is encouraging self responsibility for fuel and food.
You should see the checkout lines in the Baumärkte with people buying gas cylinders like the whole country is going camping.

A little teaser on another potential conflict that would also make the Ukraine mess even more complicated. Of vourse, when writing about natsec/war is your business, you might see conflict everywhere. On the other hand, I would not trust Erdogan farther than I can throw a washing machine

WHY ERDOGAN MIGHT CHOOSE WAR WITH GREECE
RYAN GINGERAS
OCTOBER 5, 2022

https://warontherocks.com/2022/10/wh...r-with-greece/

I stumbled on a war game done in 1983, it was called: "Proud Prophet" and attempted to ascertain the limits of a tactical nuclear exchange and how the two sides would react if each were faced with preparations for a nuclear strike. The outcome is that a small scale nuclear war will not stay small scale, but it will escalate into a tit for tat exchange until a full scale nuclear barrage is launched.
The end!

It is certainly a possiblility, and maybe my words here ("not remotely realistic") were chosen poorly. If there is a Russian "small nuke" strike, it is possible to likely that the US/NATO intervenes conventionally which then might lead to the Russians further escalating. But if you give into Russia's nuclear blackmail, then what is next? They ask to "welcome home" Moldava or launch a nuke?

Blackmail only works if one has the advantage. If only Russia were to have nukes then; sure. What we are now seeing between Russia and the US, is nothing more than a Mexican standoff.

Please explain what's unclear or fuzzy. This is part if the nuclear doctrine:
I agree with your last part though, there are quite a few weapon types besides nukes Russia hasn't used yet.

Indeed, if any replacement arises, it's because Putin support went away. If so, the replacement is "forced" to do the opposite to be supported, at least in the short term.

I feel sorry-not-sorry for the people Putin was defending in Crimea, Donestk and Luhansk. They may be used as scapegoat by Putin's successor. Be blamed because Russia lost a lot by defending them and would not be surprised if they will become the next under persecution.

So, be trapped among furious people from Ukraine recovering land, people from Russia blaming them for their problems, and people around the world blaming them for supporting Putin's invasion. Where can those refugees go?

I am sure the West will base their strategy on a 40 year old war game and have never bothered to update it.

BTW, my earlier post about Russia continuing to use the Kerch bridge should not be construed to mean I believe the bridge is safe to use.

There is no evidence the bridge was built to military standards so the massive explosion has likely weakened parts that will only show up after more heavy use.
Has anybody seen expert commentary on the failure of the third span? Clearly, two spans were close to the explosion and so severely damaged but what caused the third span to get detached at the end away from the explosion?

In the UAE, they used to mix the concrete with seawater...

LOL!

I was wondering if the explosion caused the bridge to oscillate (expand and contract) so pulling the third span out of alignment. If so there could be all sorts of hidden damage.

Speculating, but due to the shortage of sand for construction giving rise to the sand mafia flogging any old sand and shoddy workmanship, it could just have undergone rapid structural loss of integrity due to a percussive event.

yep, good article. While the world focusses on Russia, they let Erdogan carry on his local games unchained and unrestrained.

See also Aliyev and Azerbaijan's recent illegal attacks on Armenia

From The Times