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-   -   World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? (https://www.englishforum.ch/international-affairs-politics/202409-world-war-3-just-local-spat-ukraine.html)

idefix 04.03.2014 13:39

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mtop (Post 2103131)
Here's something from your favourite source:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZolXrjGIBJs

You've completly changed my mind now, thanks!

U-S-A! U-S-A!

http://www.top5bin.com/wp-content/up...er-612x240.jpg

Guest 04.03.2014 13:40

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by idefix (Post 2103142)
You've completly changed my mind now, thanks!

U-S-A! U-S-A!

http://www.top5bin.com/wp-content/up...er-612x240.jpg

No more propaganda pics? You could re-paste the same, no?
Very constructive answer too...

dmay 04.03.2014 13:57

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by esto (Post 2103111)
...and why has the US and NATO suddenly lost their spine? Why are they not standing up to unprovoked aggression? Have we forgotten how Hitler started to grab countries in 1938? (..and not long after hosting the Olympics in 1936)

Well, several things:

1. The US has no meaningful military options here. It does not have enough army that is not in either rotating to or in Iraq/Afghanistan to stand with the Russian Army, and it certainly does not have the logistical infrastructure to put it into the Ukraine to fight a Russian military that is already there. While the US Navy is significantly superior to the Russian Navy, that won't win the war. Air supremacy will be extremely hard to acheive, so they can't execute a bombing campaign as they have done elsewhere. The rest of NATO is not much better, though France and Germany probably could muster up something, if they were inclined.

2. A shooting war with Russia, although likely devastating to Russia, would go badly for the US as well. Russia is one of the very few (arguably the only) nations than can project military power to the US mainland. They are the only non-allied nation with a significant blue water navy, a significant submarine force, and one of the few that also have intercontinental ballistic missiles. Further, Russia has spent the last decade refining their military technology to deal with the American air tactics they have been watching, and have two new generations of antiair missile technology the US hasn't seen. This would be a very bad option.

3. Such a conflict would represent the first direct conflict between two nuclear powers. This is a deeply hairy proposition.

---

To the other question, it's not quite clear that Putin is Hitler, and we should be conscious of overlearning the lessons of Munich. Avoidance of appeasement is not a virture in and of itself. And the practical facts are that while a military intervention might be more emotionally satisfying, it's not really a move on the table. The move for the rest of the west is economic pressure. The EU and US are each much larger economic zones than Russia, and freezing Russia out of their markets, and those aligned with them, will do a lot of damage to Russia. (and likely crater the ruble. Again.) Though not immediate, this will do more to destabilize Putin's support than a direct confrontation. And it also has the advantage of being something the US and NATO can actually do.

cannut 04.03.2014 14:28

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...ion%29.svg.pngThere on my door step Alaska is back in the Russian empire ;)

esto 04.03.2014 15:06

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by idefix (Post 2102982)
The Russian military has not fired a single bullet and the locals are welcoming them with arm wide open. So what's the fuss about?

This is how Russia liberates a country:

https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.n...51560112_n.jpg

I'm sorry, but regarding your post above, I just need to point out that a major Russian news source has just quoted Putin as saying today:
Quote:

MOSCOW, March 4 (RIA Novosti) – Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that his country has not deployed any troops in Crimea recently and has no plans to annex the peninsula.
Ukrainian officials and media have claimed in recent days that clandestine Russian army troops without insignias were deployed in the southeastern Ukrainian region, which has a majority ethnic Russian population.
When asked about the identity of the troops, Putin told a press conference that they are “local militias.”
They are wearing Russian-style fatigues because such attire is available in army shops across the former Soviet Union, Putin said.
http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140304/188...to-Crimea.html

So according to Putin, the Supreme Commander of Russian Forces, these are just a rag-tag group of local milita-men. I guess you won't argue with Putin or a major Russian news source? :confused:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-nihUz2HtC0...R3FVDG-580.jpg

Guest 04.03.2014 15:14

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
http://sweasel.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/putin.jpg

Source. :)

marton 04.03.2014 16:53

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by esto (Post 2103220)
I'm sorry, but regarding your post above, I just need to point out that a major Russian news source has just quoted Putin as saying today:

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140304/188...to-Crimea.html

So according to Putin, the Supreme Commander of Russian Forces, these are just a rag-tag group of local milita-men. I guess you won't argue with Putin or a major Russian news source? :confused:

So I assume that Putin will have no objection if the Ukraine sends in a squadron of tanks backed up by a few NATO jets and wipes out these militias? :D

I quote again Merkel's comments that he seems to "be in his own world" and "lost touch with reality"

marton 04.03.2014 17:12

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by esto (Post 2103220)
I'm sorry, but regarding your post above, I just need to point out that a major Russian news source has just quoted Putin as saying today:

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140304/188...to-Crimea.html

So according to Putin, the Supreme Commander of Russian Forces, these are just a rag-tag group of local milita-men. I guess you won't argue with Putin or a major Russian news source? :confused:

So if these are local militia men then people will know who they are, there are plenty of photos floating around; names, addresses and so forth?? :D :D

Verbier 04.03.2014 17:27

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Thinking a bit "out of the box" (and maybe out of touch with reality :)), it seems to me that the Russians real issue is not wanting to lose their Black sea military bases in Crimea. I doubt that they really care if the Ukraine move a bit towards Europe since it is a basket case in any event.

Why wouldn't the Ukrainians just offer to sell the Crimea to Russia (it was Russian until the 1950's if I am not mistaken and is populated by mostly Russians). The Ukrainians could ask that their foreign and commercial debt to Russia be forgiven (several Billion $) and get a 10 year deal on cheap gas.

Everyone gets to go home and "claim victory".

Comments?

cannut 04.03.2014 17:43

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Verbier (Post 2103345)
Thinking a bit "out of the box" (and maybe out of touch with reality :)), it seems to me that the Russians real issue is not wanting to lose their Black sea military bases in Crimea. I doubt that they really care if the Ukraine move a bit towards Europe since it is a basket case in any event.

Why wouldn't the Ukrainians just offer to sell the Crimea to Russia (it was Russian until the 1950's if I am not mistaken and is populated by mostly Russians). The Ukrainians could ask that their foreign and commercial debt to Russia be forgiven (several Billion $) and get a 10 year deal on cheap gas.

Everyone gets to go home and "claim victory".

Comments?


Send your resume to Merkel or Kerry . Best solution I heard. Keep it up;)

esto 04.03.2014 18:00

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Verbier (Post 2103345)
Thinking a bit "out of the box" (and maybe out of touch with reality :)), it seems to me that the Russians real issue is not wanting to lose their Black sea military bases in Crimea. I doubt that they really care if the Ukraine move a bit towards Europe since it is a basket case in any event.

Why wouldn't the Ukrainians just offer to sell the Crimea to Russia (it was Russian until the 1950's if I am not mistaken and is populated by mostly Russians). The Ukrainians could ask that their foreign and commercial debt to Russia be forgiven (several Billion $) and get a 10 year deal on cheap gas.

Everyone gets to go home and "claim victory".

Comments?

Yanukovich was doing something like that in December it seems. But I don't think Ukrainians were too happy about selling their country off to pay debts, soon you'll have no country left. I guess if the US sold Alaska back to the Russians, they could cut their debt down too, but I can't see that happening either.

...but hey, now Russia gets it for free, that's better than paying I guess.

Quote:

Russian entrepreneurs invited to invest billions in Ukraine's Crimea

28.02.2014 | Source: Pravda.Ru





http://pravda-team.ru/eng/image/arti...6/3/52263.jpeg
The Ministry of Economic Development proposed Russian entrepreneurs to invest in the Crimea. Russia's government sent a list of about thirty projects for investments to business organizations. The projects include ports, roads, hotels, factories for the production of halva, oil and so on. In total, about $ 5 billion is required for the restoration of the autonomous republic.

Several objects for investment are associated with the resort profile of the Crimea. For example, investors are invited to invest in the creation of tourist infrastructure of the old part of Feodosia, build a recreation and wellness center with apartments in Yevpatoria or upgrade the port in Alushta.

The most significant and costly infrastructure projects are the reconstruction of international motor road M-17 Cherson-Djankoi-Feodosia-Kerch ($1.4 billion) and a project to build and transport crossing across the Kerch Strait ($1.2 billion).

As the director of the Department of the Ministry of Economy for Cooperation with the Customs Union and Economic Cooperation with the CIS countries Alexander Tsybulsky said, the search for investors is not associated with the ongoing events in Ukraine. The work is being conducted within the scope of the agreement that was signed with Viktor Yanukovych in December.

During the talks on December 17, Presidents Vladimir Putin and Viktor Yanukovych agreed about a loan of $15 billion, discounts on gas and expansion of economic ties.


http://english.pravda.ru/news/busine..._investment-0/

Faltrad 04.03.2014 18:10

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by PlantHead (Post 2103065)
He may get the Crimea but that is peanuts to losing all of the Ukraine.

You obviously don't have the same criteria as Moscow. Ukraine is easy to deal with, whoever is in power:
- Any power in Kiev is corruptable, because a) that's how business with EU investors is done in the east anyway and b) currupting is another way of saying hello to both russian and ukrainian businessmen non stop since independence.
- Strategically, the key is the front line NATO/Russia, Crimea and Caucasus are on the same line there.


Crimea is a big deal to Moscow, Kiev is a little sister. Changing political line in Kiev won't change this relationship to Russia one bit. Different partis will deal differently with said situation, that's all. You all have forgotten how easy Timoshenko got friendly to Moscow after her rhetorical war speeches for years. She at least did not let herself be manipulated by the racist far right... no so sure about this new Kiev government. Time will show, but starting with abolishing Russian as second national language kind of shows the way.

EDIT: I wrote that February the 24th.
Quote:

Originally Posted by Faltrad (Post 2097227)
I am now worrying about a secession of Crimea... let's wait and see if we get a new Abkhazie.


cricketer 04.03.2014 18:11

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
I'm polishing up my bunker downstairs just in case.

Verbier 04.03.2014 18:40

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by cricketer (Post 2103377)
I'm polishing up my bunker downstairs just in case.

It would take WEEKS for us to clean out the s**t we have in ours. :D

PlantHead 04.03.2014 18:43

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Verbier (Post 2103345)
Thinking a bit "out of the box" (and maybe out of touch with reality :)), it seems to me that the Russians real issue is not wanting to lose their Black sea military bases in Crimea. I doubt that they really care if the Ukraine move a bit towards Europe since it is a basket case in any event.

Why wouldn't the Ukrainians just offer to sell the Crimea to Russia (it was Russian until the 1950's if I am not mistaken and is populated by mostly Russians). The Ukrainians could ask that their foreign and commercial debt to Russia be forgiven (several Billion $) and get a 10 year deal on cheap gas.

Everyone gets to go home and "claim victory".

Comments?

Ethnic Russians only make up just over half of the population, the other half will be mightly pissed off that they have to move, especially the Tartars.

Guest 04.03.2014 18:45

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by PlantHead (Post 2103402)
Ethnic Russians only make up just over half of the population, the other half will be mightly pissed off that they have to move, especially the Tartars.

It worked in Cyprus. :)

PlantHead 04.03.2014 18:46

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Faltrad (Post 2103374)


Crimea is a big deal to Moscow, Kiev is a little sister.

Is the Crimea that important? Sevastapol and the Naval base are super important but Russia already owns those.

Faltrad 04.03.2014 18:49

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by PlantHead (Post 2103406)
Is the Crimea that important? Sevastapol and the Naval base are super important but Russia already owns those.

You've seen how important the totally unknown tiny apparently insignificant Abkhazie and South Ossitia were to Russia, so imagine the obvious Crimea in the middle pg the Black Sea... :msngrin:

martin959 04.03.2014 18:52

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
There wont be any war... lets face it... no one has cash to go to war...

Maybe the best option should be to pacifically divide the country, and thats it...

Slaphead 04.03.2014 20:41

Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?
 
Bullets may not have been fired in anything other than a harmless deterrent, but, if this is to believed, the bits are firing with good aim.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/03...yber_conflict/


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