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  #781  
Old 07.08.2014, 15:09
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Are Russia insane?

Russia is working on measures to close its airspace to Asia, Pacific-bound flights

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/743897

What if everyone closes their space to Russian flights? Who would lose out then?

Perhaps Russia should have closed the airspace around it's borders before it shot down a plane full of civilians....
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  #782  
Old 07.08.2014, 15:43
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Are Russia insane?

Russia is working on measures to close its airspace to Asia, Pacific-bound flights

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/743897

What if everyone closes their space to Russian flights? Who would lose out then?

Perhaps Russia should have closed the airspace around it's borders before it shot down a plane full of civilians....
It won't happen...

Quote:
Russia would also be disproportionately hurt by any tit-for-tat move from the European Union to close its own airspace to Aeroflot and peers, said Oliver Sleath, a Barclays Plc analyst in London.



“This is extremely unlikely to happen because the response would be more crippling to the Russian economy,” Sleath said. Russian flights that cross EU airspace outnumber European carriers’ trips over Siberia, he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...sanctions.html

However, if Siberia were to suddenly have a referendum where they declared independence from Russia, they could not only benefit from owning the airspace, but from oil pipelines to China.

...oh wait, that won't happen either...

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Russian authorities have banned a Siberian independence march and threatened to block the BBC Russian service over its coverage of separatist protests.


In sharp contrast to the treatment of separatists in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, Moscow has made it clear that it does not welcome similar aspirations at home.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...-extremism-law
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  #783  
Old 07.08.2014, 15:51
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Pressure tactics to make airline companies lobby their governments to drop sanctions. Foreign airlines face to lose a lot more by not being able to fly over Siberia than Russia ever would.

Exactly....the costs of changing flight schedules, routes and flight times, not to mention additional fuel costs. Virtually all Asia-Pacific flights pass through Russian air space. The alternative involves flying over a lot of water, which no one wants as its very risky.

I think we are starting to see the style of agressive tit-for-tat politics which as far as I can see will only escalate.
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  #784  
Old 07.08.2014, 16:06
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

I see it panning out like this:

Russia is massing troops on the Ukrainian border. One night in the near future, these troops will roll over Pro-Russian territory and annex it in the same fashion as Crimea. East-West relations will freeze over for a while but slowly thaw out as the new borders solidify. Ukraine will have little effective support and will be left to accept its reduced size.

The clouds of a new world order will cast their shadow, one in which the UN and international law will have little influence.
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  #785  
Old 07.08.2014, 20:12
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Exactly....the costs of changing flight schedules, routes and flight times, not to mention additional fuel costs. Virtually all Asia-Pacific flights pass through Russian air space. The alternative involves flying over a lot of water, which no one wants as its very risky.

I think we are starting to see the style of agressive tit-for-tat politics which as far as I can see will only escalate.
Why is the alternative "flying over a lot of water"? Flying south of Russia does not look like a big diversion on the map; flying over say Turkey, Georgia, Turkmenistan, etc.
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  #786  
Old 07.08.2014, 23:18
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Exactly....the costs of changing flight schedules, routes and flight times, not to mention additional fuel costs. Virtually all Asia-Pacific flights pass through Russian air space. The alternative involves flying over a lot of water, which no one wants as its very risky.

I think we are starting to see the style of agressive tit-for-tat politics which as far as I can see will only escalate.
Asian stocks fell today, especially China.
I suppose people believe restrictions on Europe - Asia flights will impact China; although I have not yet seen any complaints from China about the Russian proposals.
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  #787  
Old 07.08.2014, 23:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I see it panning out like this:



Russia is massing troops on the Ukrainian border. One night in the near future, these troops will roll over Pro-Russian territory and annex it in the same fashion as Crimea. East-West relations will freeze over for a while but slowly thaw out as the new borders solidify. Ukraine will have little effective support and will be left to accept its reduced size.



The clouds of a new world order will cast their shadow, one in which the UN and international law will have little influence.

Repeat this for northern Kazakhstan and other -stans, Southern Ukraine, Baltic Republics.
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  #788  
Old 08.08.2014, 00:21
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Repeat this for northern Kazakhstan and other -stans, Southern Ukraine, Baltic Republics.
China has invested a lot in Kazakhstan, not sure that they would accept a Russian invasion.
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  #789  
Old 10.08.2014, 10:30
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Wow, very bizarre, almost unreal. On live national TV in Russia, a show was broadcast from Crimea, hosted by a Russian biker gang, that started off with a group marching in a swastika and saluting a US dollar sign, while a drummer continually spits blood into his drum. Then there are some police are symbolically lit on fire, and mock lynchings take place while a rock band plays. Then masked men flying pro-Russian flags enter with AK-47's and save everybody, followed by the triumphant playing of the Soviet National anthem

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/08/1...-soviet-union/

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  #790  
Old 10.08.2014, 12:30
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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playing of the Soviet National anthem
It's been the Russian anthem for a while now. It's their view of what happened, we all know that you disagree, but that's their view. Other groups of people would do another show, we all get that.
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  #791  
Old 10.08.2014, 13:34
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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It's been the Russian anthem for a while now.
If you watch the video (or read the article) you would notice the words to the Soviet national anthem were sung

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This, magnificently, culminates with an orchestral and glorifying rendition of the Soviet national anthem. Many may confuse it for that of the Russian Federation, which uses an identical musical score, but the lyrics are the Soviet rendition: “Long live the creation of the will of the people, the united, mighty Soviet Union!”
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  #792  
Old 10.08.2014, 13:39
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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If you watch the video (or read the article) you would notice the words to the Soviet national anthem were sung
Ah ok, fine. I don't mind admitting when I miss something. This is also the reason why I expect you to admit that for the Crimean, this IS what happened. You read another story, fine, keep reading, but you can't take their history from the Crimean. Same with the Serbs, they won't ever forget the bombing of Beograd. History writing is… writing. Let them write, the US is writing too. Same as usual.
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  #793  
Old 10.08.2014, 13:55
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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It's their view of what happened, we all know that you disagree, but that's their view. Other groups of people would do another show, we all get that.
It's not so much the difference in viewpoints, it's more the presentation of it that was bizarre. If a national US TV channel showed the Hell's Angels marching in a swastika and spitting blood to demonize Putin, I'd find that bizarre as well.
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  #794  
Old 10.08.2014, 13:58
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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It's not so much the difference in viewpoints, it's more the presentation of it that was bizarre. If a national US TV channel showed the Hell's Angels marching in a swastika and spitting blood to demonize Putin, I'd find that bizarre as well.
Don't tell us that Russian kitsch is new to you, that would destroy your credibility even in the eyes of people who believe the same version of the story as you.
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  #795  
Old 14.08.2014, 00:27
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

So is the Russian convoy a genuine humanitarian gesture or simply rearming the rebels?

Anybody remember the Russian humanitarian convoy to Georgia some years ago?
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  #796  
Old 14.08.2014, 09:43
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

This is not a general war and even Russia would not be so stupid as to attempt something as obvious as a 'Trojan horse' style activity. There are so many other ways to resupply the rebels through the controlled territory that they already have, and since you really can't put heavy military hardware inside a truck of the size being used, we must be realistic about this.

What this is, however, is a move to reinforce Russia's support in the Donetsk and Luhansk areas, where civilians are genuinely suffering as a result of the conflict and the cordon that the Ukrainian military has placed around it. Note the word civilians, as these are also the recruits of the pro-Russian rebels, who are mostly local militia - who also need feeding. If Russia can gain vast majority support in this region, then Ukraine may have to concede the territory or face a never ending asymmetric conflict in its back yard.....something it cannot afford. By providing food, water and other essentials such as nappies and medical supplies to the region, Russia will be seen as a saviour of sorts by those people currently affected. This is hearts and minds....not a new idea in military tactics.
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Old 14.08.2014, 09:46
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

There some sadly interesting material in the internetz
I first fund this one, about a US volunteer fighting for the Ukrainian army

and then I found this (=>GRAPHIC, viewer discretion)
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=240_1407867265

The really sad part is when the US volunteer talks about all the corruption in Kiev which would justify the elimination of the political class in toto. But at this point I'm wondering why he and his commilitons are going after the Donbas rebels.
And the latter would appear to have busted the "regular" army's ass - maybe the same guys portrayed in the first video? - quite badly, by the horrible looks of it.
Looks like a bloody, festering, infected wound which is rapidly becoming un-curable
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  #798  
Old 14.08.2014, 11:03
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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So is the Russian convoy a genuine humanitarian gesture or simply rearming the rebels?

Anybody remember the Russian humanitarian convoy to Georgia some years ago?


LOL

I am not really sure what to think. If the convoy will actually pass thru a Ukrainian-controlled check-point and inspected and distributed by the Red Cross, then I think it's a good thing. Putin maybe sees the rebels as a lost cause, and is trying now to win hearts and minds in the Donbass by delivering aid.

If the convoy drives right into Lugansk, without any approval from the Red Cross or Ukraine government, then it's a trojan horse. Let's wait and see.
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Old 14.08.2014, 12:10
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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This is not a general war and even Russia would not be so stupid as to attempt something as obvious as a 'Trojan horse' style activity. There are so many other ways to resupply the rebels through the controlled territory that they already have, and since you really can't put heavy military hardware inside a truck of the size being used, we must be realistic about this.

What this is, however, is a move to reinforce Russia's support in the Donetsk and Luhansk areas, where civilians are genuinely suffering as a result of the conflict and the cordon that the Ukrainian military has placed around it. Note the word civilians, as these are also the recruits of the pro-Russian rebels, who are mostly local militia - who also need feeding. If Russia can gain vast majority support in this region, then Ukraine may have to concede the territory or face a never ending asymmetric conflict in its back yard.....something it cannot afford. By providing food, water and other essentials such as nappies and medical supplies to the region, Russia will be seen as a saviour of sorts by those people currently affected. This is hearts and minds....not a new idea in military tactics.

About "even Russia would not be so stupid as to attempt something as obvious as a 'Trojan horse' style activity." Well that is exactly what they did in Georgia some years ago with such a "relief convoy".

About "you really can't put heavy military hardware inside a truck of the size being used" True, but money, ammunition and light weapons fits OK - and if the drivers turn out to be ex-soldiers who stay and fight?
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Old 14.08.2014, 12:16
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

I personally liked this picture..... but don't confuse 'hearts and minds' with anything other than real military tactics..... The Malayan Emergency was a significant insurgent campaign where this tactic was very effective.


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