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Old 09.11.2022, 18:15
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Russia announces withdrawal from the right / Western bank of the Dnipro River, including the city of Kherson.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/09/e...ntl/index.html
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Old 09.11.2022, 20:57
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Russia announces withdrawal from the right / Western bank of the Dnipro River, including the city of Kherson.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/09/e...ntl/index.html
This announcement is a major political defeat for Russia. I hope it is not part of some stupid scheme to draw in Ukraine for some sort of ambush.
The official Russian statement says Ukraine's losses in Kherson were seven to eight times Russian losses which makes no sense when they are retreating.

Lots of stories about Russia heavily reinforcing the East/left bank of the Dnipro River. If I were Ukraine I would not attempt to cross the Dnipro.
I would strike South somewhere between Enerhordar and Vasylivka to cut the supply route to Kherson Oblast.
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  #8243  
Old 09.11.2022, 21:54
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Russia announces withdrawal from the right / Western bank of the Dnipro River, including the city of Kherson.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/09/e...ntl/index.html
Nice of them to make another goodwill gesture!
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  #8244  
Old 09.11.2022, 22:06
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Right? And I thought that Kherson was Russia now. Turns out that the "Kherson representative" clown who high-5ed Putin in the Kremlin on the "annexation" was announced to have been killed in a car accident today.

How sad.
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Old 09.11.2022, 22:38
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Coincidentally the Russian-installed deputy governor of Kherson, Kirill Stremousov, has been killed in a car crash, local officials and media say.

The 45-year-old was appointed two months after Russia's invasion.

He was one of the most prominent proponents of the Russian occupation and became known for aggressive statements on social media.

Some car crash looks more like a bomb

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Old 09.11.2022, 22:40
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Same guy, I think.
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Old 10.11.2022, 12:27
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Claimed to be a letter to the Russian authorities from the elite 155th Marine Brigade that is all over Russian-friendly social media today, seems they do not want to fight like that anymore.
The brigade was ordered to advance to Vuhledar via Pavlivka. They mention 300 casualties (dead and wounded) and 50% vehicle loss in just 4 days.
They claim Vuhledar is less than 2Km from Pavlivka and higher up so Ukraine could pour artillery fire down on them. Looking at a map it looks more like 4Km and a height difference of 20 meters.
Russia is still trying to take Vuhledar and Pavlivka.
This is a strategic location for Russia, as Volnovakha is only some 36km away and contains the only remaining rail line junction for supplying the south (the other one was the Crimea bridge).
If Russia has to fall back just 10km, then the rail line can be targeted by standard brigade level field level artillery. Presumably, Russia wants to bring battle-hardened troops from Kherson to protect this area

Ukraine fought a very clever battle in Kherson.
Instead of wasting thousands of lives in direct assaults, they used a long term strategy with long-range artillery to interdict supply lines, to hit storage depots and troop concentrations.

Russia now seems to be making a well planned withdrawal from Kherson with pontoon bridges suddenly appearing all over the place so making it difficult for Ukraine to target them all.
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  #8248  
Old 11.11.2022, 00:05
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Same guy, I think.
I am sure you are correct.

Still trying to understand the photo of the accident, I do not know how the body of a car can be removed from the chassis and leave the chassis with the wheels some distance away.

Confused Russian reporting about the Kherson Oblast.
Some say there are many civilians still trying to evacuate, while others claim that Ukraine has rapidly liberated many villages even some who say Ukraine forces are within Kherson city itself.
Also claims that Russia is moving many resources from the East bank which are supposed to be protecting the Russian withdrawal from the West bank because the East bank is now in range of Ukraine rockets.
For example, from the area of Chaplinka that was occupied by the RF Armed Forces on February 24, where a permanent base and a helicopter airfield were organized on the territory of an abandoned airfield. From where attack Ka-52s flew to support Russian units defending the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.

Edit: Also satellite images of trenches being dug in Northern Crimea.
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  #8249  
Old 11.11.2022, 12:01
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Russia media starting to report on the retreat.

The protection of Putin's myth is so transparent that is comic. Let some expendable guys be linked to the retreat. Putin cannot be even mentioned in an article where words such as "withdrawal" or "relocation" are used.

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Withdrawal of forces to left bank of Dnieper a forced, correct decision, lawmaker says

The relocation of Russian forces to the left bank of Dnieper is a correct decision, necessary to preserve the lives of Russian servicemen, says head of the LDPR party, chairman of the State Duma Committee on international affairs Leonid Slutsky.

He made this remark during the working meeting of the LDPR Duma faction delegation with Kherson Region Acting Governor Vladimir Saldo, which took place in Genichesk Thursday.

"As for the withdrawal of forces from the right bank, it is a forced decision, it is a correct decision, made to preserve the lives of our servicemen. We will definitely come back to Kherson, we will definitely win in the foreseeable future," Slutsky said, according to the LDPR press office.

"The collective West has concentrated an incredible amount of modern lethal weapons in Ukraine, we assess this situation objectively. We will definitely win. Nobody is going to give up Kherson once and for all. Russia does not leave anyone behind," he added.

On November 9, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu ordered to withdraw Russian forces form the right bank of Dnieper under the proposal of Russian Joint Forces Group Commander Army General Sergey Surovikin. Surovikin underscored that Russian forces have been successfully repelling Ukrainian attacks, and the decision to withdraw the forces was connected to the threat of isolation of the group because of potential flooding of the territory below the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam. According to Surovikin all civilians who expressed their desire have been evacuated from the right bank - over 115,000 people.
https://tass.com/politics/1535057
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  #8250  
Old 11.11.2022, 15:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Video of the destruction of the main Kherson Antonovsky Bridge after it was destroyed by Russian forces after the last Russian left, it was anyway not useable.

Russian MOD claimed today that after 5:00 hours there are no more Russian soldiers or heavy weapons left on the Western side, hard to believe.

Here is a video of Russians leaving Kherson, not exactly laden down with heavy weapons.

Hopefully, the next Russian target will be the Kerch Bridge.
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  #8251  
Old 11.11.2022, 20:01
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Now if they don't blow up that dam and cause massive flooding, but they are bent on total destruction before they leave.
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Old 11.11.2022, 22:45
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Now if they don't blow up that dam and cause massive flooding, but they are bent on total destruction before they leave.
The problem for Russia when creating floods is the city of Kherson on the West bank is quite high up whereas the East bank where the Russians are building defenses and massing troops is low and flat.
It is claimed from High buildings in Kherson one can see 50Km over the East bank which makes the area a great artillery target for the West bank especially if the enemy is bogged down in floods and mud.

Some Russian social media is complaining a lot of Russian soldiers got abandoned on the West bank, mainly due to communication problems. No idea if this is correct, should be clarified in a couple of days.
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Old 11.11.2022, 22:56
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Those claims may well be true in some areas.

For the time being UA will enjoy the advantage of elevated artillery positions. And probably try to push a wegde between the western and the eastern parts of the occupied territory, somewhere in the Zaporizhzhia or the western Donetsk oblast.

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Old 11.11.2022, 22:59
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

The point on elevation difference is interesting. Thanks.
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Old 12.11.2022, 00:03
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The problem for Russia when creating floods is the city of Kherson on the West bank is quite high up whereas the East bank where the Russians are building defenses and massing troops is low and flat.
It is claimed from High buildings in Kherson one can see 50Km over the East bank which makes the area a great artillery target for the West bank especially if the enemy is bogged down in floods and mud.

Some Russian social media is complaining a lot of Russian soldiers got abandoned on the West bank, mainly due to communication problems. No idea if this is correct, should be clarified in a couple of days.
Isn't the nuclear plant nearby? Blowing the dam might cause problems for cooling the reactor...
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  #8256  
Old 12.11.2022, 00:24
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Isn't the nuclear plant nearby? Blowing the dam might cause problems for cooling the reactor...
The Russian reactors now (since Chernobyl) have a lot of safety features built in.
The safety systems are designed to eliminate the maximum design basis accident. Water reserves are redundant: first, water will be supplied from the reserve tanks installed in the power unit itself, and then, if this water is still insufficient, water will start to be supplied from three additional tanks.

In the worst and unlikely case of a core meltdown, there are catchment areas built under each reactor.
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Old 12.11.2022, 00:45
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

People have been crunching the numbers and claim it was not possible for the Russians to have withdrawn from the Western bank so quickly. They say there must be at least ten thousand left and with the bridges blown they have no way to return home.

The Ukraine MOD is much better able than us armchair strategists to crunch the numbers which presumably is why they have yet to confirm the Russian withdrawal.

Certainly, Ukraine forces are in the city of Kherson but so far only a few special forces which seems to be a sensible and careful approach.

There have been stories of Russian soldiers in civilian clothing, if there are really such then surely they are going to take the opportunity to bugger off and not stay around to get killed/injured.

It is difficult to foresee what game the Russians are playing, certainly, there is no element of surprise left.

I doubt the simple answer that the Russians are so crap that they really believe everybody has left the West bank.
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  #8258  
Old 12.11.2022, 00:52
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

@Urs Max

Good idea to have a topographical map, here is another one that you can zoom and move around.

I am Brown/Green colour blind so I can only hope it supports my claims on elevation
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Old 12.11.2022, 15:08
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Some Russian social media is complaining a lot of Russian soldiers got abandoned on the West bank, mainly due to communication problems. No idea if this is correct, should be clarified in a couple of days.
I think their main problem is the withdrawal from Kherson, not necessarily the abandonment of the soldiers.....

Quote:
They feared it might come for weeks, but still, when a Russian commander announced on Wednesday that Russian troops would be pulled from the strategically important city of Kherson, Ukraine, Russian hawkish military bloggers and commentators responded with despair, anguish and denial.

“I will never forget that murder of Russian hopes,” Zastavny, a popular blogger, said in a post on the Telegram messaging app. “This betrayal is now carved up on my heart for centuries.”

Boris Rozhin, a pro-Russian military analyst, called the retreat Russia’s “most serious military defeat since 1991.” In a Telegram post, he said, “If there won’t be any upcoming successes with major towns captured and no advancement during the winter offensive, the series of military setbacks would accumulate a much greater internal discontent than sanctions.”

But Margarita Simonyan, the editor of RT, Russia’s global television network, said on Twitter that it was the right move to protect Russia’s Army from further losses. “As long as the army is intact, there is hope to end the war with honor,” she wrote, quoting a famed Russian military commander from the time of the Napoleonic wars. “With the loss of the army, not only Moscow — all of Russia will be lost.”

The war in Ukraine has propelled Russian military bloggers — a group of hawkish pro-invasion analysts, activists and fighters — into an increasingly vocal force in the Russian media and political landscape. Most opposition news websites and other news media have been banned by the Kremlin, leaving few alternatives for Russians to follow the war aside from the Russian Defense Ministry’s mundane daily briefings. The bloggers’ channels on Telegram, with their swift updates of the situation on the front, have gained thousands of followers during the war.

As Russia began to suffer clear battlefield setbacks, however, many of these bloggers started to criticize the military’s top brass, and even the country’s politicians, for not preparing the army.

For instance, Vladlen Tatarsky, a popular blogger and activist, reacted to the news about Kherson by saying that Russia’s overall plan for war was “idiotic” and “based on disinformation.”

Many bloggers blamed fundamental issues for the setbacks, such as the rampant corruption that has been endemic in the Russian Army. Rybar, a popular blogger, said false reports that were being sent to the military top brass were among the core reasons for the Russian retreat.

Yuri Kotyonok, another popular blogger, mixed rational analysis with the sense of despair, or even desperation. “It will leave a scar on my heart, you can’t get used to it,” he said in a post. “It’s been a hard day.”
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/11...russia-updates
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Old 12.11.2022, 19:52
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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@Urs Max

Good idea to have a topographical map, here is another one that you can zoom and move around.

I am Brown/Green colour blind so I can only hope it supports my claims on elevation
That's the one I used. You can click for a popup that shows the elevation at that point.

Not seeing most colors must suck big time, dang!
That also explains why you're not too impressed by the coloring of your food on the plate, most of it will look pretty much the same to you anyway.

Not sure if that's any use, but the coloring is spread evenly over the min-max elevation range currently displayed. You can fixate those color assignments by clicking the lock in the bottom right corner, so it doesn't change if you drag elsewhere or zoom. Also, the heap-of-leafs icon in the top right gives access to ... not really sure what, I guess it's different heights data by different data providers. At any rate the coloring changes, so perhaps give it a try.
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