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  #821  
Old 16.08.2014, 10:39
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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About "i can't imagine the Ukraine firing on the Russian army" Seems they did! Or they did not! Maybe there are parallel universes where both are happening?

You know if somebody had written a novel last year with this theme - everybody would have said "what a ridiculous idea!"

Funny how on various forums people who are sitting in their armchairs thousands of kilometres from the action are explaining how the Guardian and Telegraph reporters could not have been where they said they were.
Perhaps they did fire on the convoy, but I fear there could be crushing consequences. Putin's tactics are one of provocation, like backing a cat into a corner. The BBC reports that many of the aid convoy trucks are empty or near empty, fuelling concerns the exercise is mearly propaganda/distraction.
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  #822  
Old 16.08.2014, 12:06
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Funny how on various forums people who are sitting in their armchairs thousands of kilometres from the action are explaining how the Guardian and Telegraph reporters could not have been where they said they were.
+1
and the worst aspect of this is also the fact that anyone can tweet or repost something they mis-interpreted (sometimes wilfully) and then the internetz forums amplify this noise ad nauseam.
OTOH it is somewhat unsettling to see how major news entities seem to lay a blanket of silence, almost as if by design. Yesterday's Guardian story about the military convoy entering Ukraine broke out rather early in the morning (the journalist had actually tweeted about the incursion *the night before*) whereas CNN published some sort of breaking news video yesterday showing a time stamp of 19:01 in Kiev - i.e. 18:01 our CH time.
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  #823  
Old 16.08.2014, 12:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Perhaps they did fire on the convoy, but I fear there could be crushing consequences. Putin's tactics are one of provocation, like backing a cat into a corner. The BBC reports that many of the aid convoy trucks are empty or near empty, fuelling concerns the exercise is mearly propaganda/distraction.
About "BBC reports that many of the aid convoy trucks are empty or near empty"

Getting ever more bizarre! Several news sources are reporting this based on the fact that the trucks are riding high on their springs; not sunk down due to a heavy load.

Of course, it may be simply due to the Russian military poor logistics.
There was a story some years ago that the Russian military ran a major exercise based on the US method of using pre-supplied forward bases but had to abandon when many of these bases had the wrong supplies or were empty.

If, for example, Putin told the army to get the trucks on the road tomorrow then I could suppose nobody was brave enough to tell him that they did not have time to load all the trucks
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  #824  
Old 16.08.2014, 12:35
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Perhaps they did fire on the convoy, but I fear there could be crushing consequences. Putin's tactics are one of provocation, like backing a cat into a corner. The BBC reports that many of the aid convoy trucks are empty or near empty, fuelling concerns the exercise is mearly propaganda/distraction.
Need to find the video of the UK journos being shown inside one of the trucks. I seem to remember that the cargo hold was anything but "packed" - i.e. there was still plenty of loading space. The media effect of 200+ trucks rolling around is more effective than showing a much lesser number...
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  #825  
Old 16.08.2014, 12:48
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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About "BBC reports that many of the aid convoy trucks are empty or near empty"
Maybe Putin is actually listening to Yatsenuk?

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Commenting on Russian plans to send humanitarian aid to Ukraine's conflict-stricken east, Yatsenyuk said "it would be better if Russia sent these 300 Kamaz trucks empty, to evacuate their bandits, then there would be no need to send any humanitarian aid."
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  #826  
Old 16.08.2014, 13:17
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Perhaps they did fire on the convoy, but I fear there could be crushing consequences. Putin's tactics are one of provocation, like backing a cat into a corner. The BBC reports that many of the aid convoy trucks are empty or near empty, fuelling concerns the exercise is mearly propaganda/distraction.
"but I fear there could be crushing consequences" - could be? Anyway if Putin planned to invade he should have done it months ago before the Ukrainian army were in place, armed and battle hardened.
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  #827  
Old 16.08.2014, 13:32
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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If, for example, Putin told the army to get the trucks on the road tomorrow then I could suppose nobody was brave enough to tell him that they did not have time to load all the trucks
Actually, that could be the case. It's not efficient to send half empty trucks. Some of the truck loads I saw on TV did not even have their pallets secured with cargo straps, and they were just knocked around the back of the truck. To me that screams "unprofessional" or "rushed slop-job" (or both).

I don't think Putin really cares whats inside the trucks, I think he just wants the media to have images of a long convoy of "humanitarian aid" as part of a show, the more trucks the better. There are alot of Russian tanks and APC's with "Peacekeeping" marked on them by the border, so I guess his plan is to roll the "peacekeepers" in either with the aid convoy, or soon after (as soon as the first aid truck is blown up).

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"but I fear there could be crushing consequences" - could be? Anyway if Putin planned to invade he should have done it months ago before the Ukrainian army were in place, armed and battle hardened.
I think months ago he thought the rebels would have succeeded on their own. But now they are falling apart and on the verge of being destroyed, so Putin is running out of options if he wants his "Novyrussia" project to still exist.
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  #828  
Old 16.08.2014, 14:48
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

...meanwhile, a Ukrainian convoy of 71 trucks carrying aid turned their contents over to the Red Cross near Lugansk yesterday with barely any media coverage:

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The first trucks carrying aid from the Ukrainian government has arrived in the country’s east. On Thursday, the humanitarian aid was partially unloaded at warehouses in Starobilsk, some 100 kilometers from Luhansk.



"The shipment consists of 780 tons of goods carried by 71 trucks. In this shipment there is mainly food - cereals, flour, milk, stews, bread and sweets." said Serhiy Bochkovsky, National Emergency Service of Ukraine.


The aid came from Kiev and the cities of Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk, and was transported in three convoys. The International Committee of the Red Cross has accepted the cargo. Its delegate said the aid would start to be distributed on Friday.
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  #829  
Old 16.08.2014, 15:09
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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+1
and the worst aspect of this is also the fact that anyone can tweet or repost something they mis-interpreted (sometimes wilfully) and then the internetz forums amplify this noise ad nauseam.
OTOH it is somewhat unsettling to see how major news entities seem to lay a blanket of silence, almost as if by design. Yesterday's Guardian story about the military convoy entering Ukraine broke out rather early in the morning (the journalist had actually tweeted about the incursion *the night before*) whereas CNN published some sort of breaking news video yesterday showing a time stamp of 19:01 in Kiev - i.e. 18:01 our CH time.
Death and destruction trumps humanitarian aid everytime in the headline stakes. That's why Gaza and Ebola are taking precendence right now.
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  #830  
Old 16.08.2014, 23:50
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

From today's Guardian "Ukraine rebel says he has 1,200 new fighters 'trained in Russia' under his command
Prime minister of the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic posts speech to YouTube saying they have 150 military vehicles including 30 tanks plus armoured personnel carriers, etc."

Tooth fairy must have been busy,!!

This whole rhetoric is getting silly!
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  #831  
Old 17.08.2014, 23:54
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

From the Moscow Times here;; "Ukrainian forces have raised their national flag over a police station in the city of Luhansk, which was for months under rebel control, Kiev said Sunday, in what could be a breakthrough in Ukraine's efforts to crush pro-Moscow separatists.

Ukrainian officials allege, though, that the rebels are fighting a desperate rearguard action to hold on to Luhansk — which is their supply route into neighboring Russia — and say the flow of weapons and fighters from Russia has accelerated
."

The Moscow Times is an English-language daily newspaper published in Moscow, Russia since 1992. The newspaper is owned by the Finland-based Sanoma Corporation.

Ukrainian army seems to be making surprisingly good progress?
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  #832  
Old 18.08.2014, 01:39
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Ukrainian army seems to be making surprisingly good progress?
Well, their tactics is still a little bit outdated, but it is progressing well. Slowly, but well. You can find a map of battlefields which is updated on daily basis on the twitter of National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (https://twitter.com/NSDC_ua)

As of today the map looks like this:



As you can from the picture, the territory of the conflict has shrinked significantly and the terroristos of Lugans region are separared from Donetsk region. However, despite this, Russia seems to be supplying them with significant manpower and armor power to keep the conflict floating for a while
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  #833  
Old 18.08.2014, 02:37
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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As you can from the picture, the territory of the conflict has shrinked significantly and the terroristos of Lugans region are separared from Donetsk region. However, despite this, Russia seems to be supplying them with significant manpower and armor power to keep the conflict floating for a while
The Ukrainian defence council is however not an independ source . Thus this map must be taken with a pinch of salt. The Ukrainian military has an interest in exaggerating the Russian involvement and to be optimistic in evaluating their own advances.
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  #834  
Old 18.08.2014, 09:39
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The Ukrainian defence council is however not an independ source . Thus this map must be taken with a pinch of salt. The Ukrainian military has an interest in exaggerating the Russian involvement and to be optimistic in evaluating their own advances.
Of course any statements released by Ukraine or Russia need to be taken in context with who is issuing them. But that said, I think the maps the Ukraine military issues daily is pretty accurate. When Strelkov was still in on the Russian side, he usually issued parallel statements that matched what the Ukrainians said, when towns were won/lost. Now that Strelkov is out (on vacation to Moscow), I don't hear anyone on the pro-Russian side issuing any statements any more regarding wins/losses of territories. Since NATO or Russia itself doesn't issue any maps on the war, unless someone else issues a daily map that I'm not aware of, this is the only one to go by anyway.
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Old 18.08.2014, 11:36
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Hello esto,

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When Strelkov was still in on the Russian side, he usually issued parallel statements that matched what the Ukrainians said, when towns were won/lost. Now that Strelkov is out (on vacation to Moscow)
Well, as we all know, the real surname of Strelkov is Girkin. Let's call him by his real name.

I don't think that Girkin is in vacation. He disappeared after rumors that he was injured near Torez and he issued no official statements after that. As we all know, this particular individual liked to give interviews to "Russia Today" and similar TV channels and now he is silent.

What is also interesting, is that together with Girkin the other heads of the so called "republics" lost their jobs: Boroday and Bolotov. Some think that this could be a strategy of Putin to turn reverse gear in the conflict.

In Ukrainian media they now say that most likely Girkin was really injured otherwise he would show up in TV and declare his vacation time.
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  #836  
Old 18.08.2014, 14:13
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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In Ukrainian media they now say that most likely Girkin was really injured otherwise he would show up in TV and declare his vacation time.
My theory is that Russian FSB killed Strelkov/Girkin, for 2 reasons:

1) there was strong evidence he was involved in shooting down MH17, and if true he would be a big liability for Russia should he be left alive.

2) He's become a big cult hero in Russia, especially among ultra-nationalists. And with a big sense of rising nationalism in Russia, people see Strelkov as being strong where Putin is perceived as being weak, so he could easily and quickly become a threat to Putin should he suddenly show up alive in Moscow.

If Strelkov was to "die in battle" his legacy would be preserved (or even elevated), he'd never be a political threat to Putin and he'd never spill the beans about MH17 to anyone. It would all fit very nicely.

But that's just my theory. Of course Girkin/Strelkov could also be fine and healthy, relaxing on the beach in Crimea with a baclava and daqueri, and nobody would ever know....
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  #837  
Old 18.08.2014, 14:46
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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What is also interesting, is that together with Girkin the other heads of the so called "republics" lost their jobs: Boroday and Bolotov. Some think that this could be a strategy of Putin to turn reverse gear in the conflict.
Could be. Or else Putin is planning a full scale military invasion and will install all new leaders who report directly to him. We'll soon see I guess.

It's hard to guess with Putin, because he doesn't seem to have a clear strategy (ie: changes daily), and he says one thing then does another. For example, a few months ago he promised to "protect Russian people wherever they are", and then angered the pro-Russian rebels and the Russian people by not launching a full-scale invasion to E.Ukraine. Then he promises to Merkel and the EU that he is not supporting the rebels and doing all he can to de-escalate, meanwhile convoys of Russian military armor cross the border right in front of British reporters and NATO satellites watch Russian artillery firing into Ukraine. Putin is talking out of both sides of his mouth at the same time and managing to p!ss off everyone in the process.
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Old 18.08.2014, 15:12
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

I think that there are many games in play at the moment. Going back to the matter of the Russian aid convoy that appears to have passed inspection by the Red Cross.....it is interesting to see that before this convoy crosses the border a ceasefire is being sought.....although not very successfully at the moment.

It may be that what is really going on here, on a number of fronts, is that Putin is trying to buy some time to re-assess his position and bargaining power....but obviously with Ukraine gaining ground against the rebels by the minute, a cease fire is needed to stop their advances. This aid convoy provides such a vehicle for a legitimate ceasefire, without Putin losing face.

As for the withdrawal of various senior Russian officers (Girkin et al), this may actually be just precautionary....if these guys became captured by the Ukrainian forces, Putin would have some serious explaining to do once these guys had spilt some of the beans after a few days 'in the bag' - in a medieval fashion!

This all adds up that Putin realises he cannot win in Ukraine, but needs an exit strategy before he loses too much credibility both at home and internationally. He must have this or he has to escalate matters further....since no-one wants that we may see some rapid negotiations in the next few days.
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  #839  
Old 18.08.2014, 16:43
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Did Russia just invade China?



http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-china-blog-28803400
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Old 18.08.2014, 16:47
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

My God...how long has Pussy Riot spent in Jail?????? Time has not been kind

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