The German indecision is not only severerly damaging Ukraine's chances. It also looks politically stupid as it seems clear than sooner or later Western MBTs will be delivered, and Germany will have lost even more face internationally at a time when Germany is weaker than it has been in 30 years. Domestically, also a losing topic as the ones who favour deliveries are livid and of the 45% who oppose 50% who are fundamentally opposed to any support for Ukraine.

Many people believe the Belarus armed forces would rebel if ordered to attack Ukraine. Certainly, there are many Belarus volunteers fighting for Ukraine.

It shows the US government is "doing something". I guess.

"The designation will allow a wider application of sanctions against the group’s sprawling global network, which includes mercenary operations as well as businesses in Africa and elsewhere.

Declaring Wagner a “Transnational Criminal Organization” under US executive order 13581 freezes any US assets of Wagner and prohibits US nationals from providing funds, goods or services to the group."

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/...l-organisation

I agree "sooner or later Western MBTs will be delivered" and it will be good that Ukraine moves away from Soviet equipment to more modern but I doubt it would be a game changer.

This is more like a first world war type artillery war where Russia has a big advantage and that needs to be addressed. The M109 is a 60's vintage American 155 mm turreted self-propelled howitzer and it is claimed the US has thousands in storage which would be a great addition for Ukraine; it is believed they currently have around 50.

1. whats the point if this? sanctions? does it make any difference

and

2. oh the irony given the USA's dark ops

probably logistics is more important. with soviet era tanks, they have difficulty getting supplies. whereas if they use the german tanks, they can get supplies from various nato countries.

Austria too. Look at OMV and many other Austrian companies basically owned by Russians.
When you have such friends you don't need enemies....

Hear hear!

That's an interesting aspect of the tank debate.

Allegedly, Germany fears that once Polush, Czech etc. Leopards are given to Ukraine, they will not be replaced by German but American tanks. One argument is that German production capacities have been so much reduced that tanks ae produced in rathrer hand-made than in industrial fashion.

Not sure what to think of this. If true, this business is anyhow lost for the German arms industry, apart from maintenance contracts. Also, German "structural pacifism" seems to blame.

https://www.nzz.ch/international/kam...ern-ld.1722377

That “pacifism” is what has kept general peace in Europe for 75+ years!!

No. Neither Germany was pacificistic in the Cold War. After 1990, in the alleged era of "the end of history", Germany has failed to accept its responsibility to co-lead an integrated Europe and has - like many others - been a complete freerider in terms of national security.

It is quite fascinating when you think of WWII industrial capacity on both sides compared to today. Tanks, guns, battleship, planes were being produced in absurd quantities.

The difference to today was these weapons were more or less simple, and all components locally sourced. Ramping up production to replace losses in the Ukraine theatre needs to start now - otherwise the Russia will get the edge

There are claims that Russia will abandon this strategy to send in the most disposable troops first after the Wagner mercenary group has failed to make any significant advances to Bahkmut after six months.

The major criticism is those who survive their attacks and actually reach Ukraine's front lines do not have the training or equipment to suppress the defences so not allowing the entry of the next wave of more skilled troops.
It is claimed they mostly just take cover and then get wiped out in the next counter-offensive.

This strategy was the brainchild of the Wagner group leader Prigozhin who is not a trained military leader, in fact, is himself an ex-prisoner.

The Wagner group relies on the Russian army to supply most of their heavy armament so could have their supplies strangled at any time if Putin decides they are not delivering, mercenary groups are illegal in Russia.

Are you sure? Kim seems to have Wagner's back:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64072570

I'm also not convinced Wagner will drop the strategy. A dead prisoner doesn't have to be paid. Although apparently word is out in the prison system that signing up for Wagner is like playing Russian Roulette with only one of the six chambers being empty. So many prisoners are preferring to take their chances in the prison showers instead.

There are conflicting reports.

Prigozhin has a major Wagner centre in St. Petersburg.

Prigozhin had called on the Russian State Duma and Prosecutor General’s office to fire and imprison St. Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov for treason, claiming that Beglov had hindered Russia’s war efforts. Roughly translated Beglov was not bowing to Prigozhin's demands.

Prigozhin’s efforts along these lines went nowhere. Putin, on the other hand, met with Beglov in St. Petersburg on January 18 making clear that Beglov had won this round.

The difference of two months.
Russia's advances are anything but insignificant in size, you're falling victim to the propaganda.

Taken from https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/56.083/59.123


End of November:




January 23:

Ironically, those random maps could be Russian propaganda...

The war is not going well for Ukraine at the moment. Don't fall for stupid memes making fun of the Russians. Ukraine had significant losses in Cherson and now around Bakhmut. Of course, it is not going well for Russia either but the difference is that Russia has infinite personnel to throw at this, probably loads of crappy material and does not give a damn how many people it loses. Russia has built siginificant defensive positions in the entire southeast of Ukraine in the last months, mobilization is clesrly having a positive effect and Russia will certainly try to regain the initiative. Gerasimov has to now that he is directly in the driver seat.

Ukraine needs more weapons and ammo.