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  #9181  
Old 22.03.2023, 13:22
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Just over a hundred years ago, since the Poles and Russkies duked it out with no real winner, perhaps Warschau thinks it is time to settle them old scores.
I wouldn't say it's about settling any scores. It's just not to feel constantly endangered by your neighbor. The feeling was scarce before 2014, but after it's again pretty strong.
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  #9182  
Old 22.03.2023, 13:32
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I know there is no crystal ball. I asked to get your opinion what's the probability of changing Russians peacefully.
The current series of events puts Russia in a path similar to Cuba or North Korea. Of course, their minds won't change, but their capability to harm others might.

About peaceful change, what comes to my mind is the phrase "science advances one funeral at a time". If children one day can grow up in a healthier place, the people with imperial ideas would eventually be less and less.
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  #9183  
Old 22.03.2023, 14:52
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Just over a hundred years ago, since the Poles and Russkies duked it out with no real winner, perhaps Warschau thinks it is time to settle them old scores.
By the way, despite Poland on board with Ukraine joining Nato there is still seems to be some resentment left over from the Polish-Ukraine war and the massacres of Poles by the Ukrainians.
And I wonder if the Ukrainian nationalists still have thoughts about taking back the Ukrainian territory that was occupied by Poland in the aftermath....

European history is complicated.
No way. You should see the backlash and uproar caused by recent gov't miscommunication about an obligatory military training that some interpreted as as a return of a military service. And similarly, any resentment due to the genocide by Ukrainians during WWII was wiped out from the nation conscience post 1989.
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  #9184  
Old 22.03.2023, 16:05
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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No way. You should see the backlash and uproar caused by recent gov't miscommunication about an obligatory military training that some interpreted as as a return of a military service. And similarly, any resentment due to the genocide by Ukrainians during WWII was wiped out from the nation conscience post 1989.
If only the world worked that way, nationalists on both sides seem to disagree with your assumption.
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  #9185  
Old 22.03.2023, 16:58
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Russia now deploys the most feared weapon of all:
https://www.marca.com/en/lifestyle/w...35f8b4593.html
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  #9186  
Old 22.03.2023, 20:38
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Russia now deploys the most feared weapon of all:
https://www.marca.com/en/lifestyle/w...35f8b4593.html
i knew what it was going to be before clicking!
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  #9187  
Old 26.03.2023, 09:41
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Well, well.... I hope you are all enjoying your Sunday.
Let me fix that, Russia will be deploying tactical nukes to Belarus
(https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65077687)
I´m just wondering if this is a tit for tat move due to the Brits supplying depleted uranium rounds to the Ukes?
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  #9188  
Old 26.03.2023, 11:04
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Well, well.... I hope you are all enjoying your Sunday.
Let me fix that, Russia will be deploying tactical nukes to Belarus
(https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65077687)
I´m just wondering if this is a tit for tat move due to the Brits supplying depleted uranium rounds to the Ukes?
Depleted uranium armour-piercing ammunition for the 125 mm (4.9 in) gun has been manufactured in Russia in the form of the BM-32 projectile since around 1978.
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  #9189  
Old 26.03.2023, 11:49
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Russia will be deploying tactical nukes to Belarus >> if this is a tit for tat move due to the Brits supplying depleted uranium rounds to the Ukes?
D No, it's Putin doing Putin's things, my Sunday doesn't change at all. There are only two ways to deal with Putin's politics:
- Ignore his macho shows designed to win over weak minds.
- Counter all his aggressive moves, such as the invasion of Ukraine.
We are already paying the price for not reacting to his previous brutal aggressions: the destruction of Grozny, the destabilisation of Georgia, Crimea, Aleppo, the assassination of his political opponents...
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  #9190  
Old 26.03.2023, 13:06
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Depleted uranium armour-piercing ammunition for the 125 mm (4.9 in) gun has been manufactured in Russia in the form of the BM-32 projectile since around 1978.
Very true, wasn´t debating that in any way. I was wondering if the supply of DU gives, in Putins eyes, legitimacy for the stationing of nukes in Belarus?
Or better said: "Does this give Putin a reason to escalate?"
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  #9191  
Old 26.03.2023, 13:18
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Very true, wasn´t debating that in any way. I was wondering if the supply of DU gives, in Putins eyes, legitimacy for the stationing of nukes in Belarus?
Or better said: "Does this give Putin a reason to escalate?"
Total bullshit. He uses this spin so that the easily scared but factually challenged in the West start panicking again, and Putinist politicians like Wagenknecht can point the finger at the West.
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Old 26.03.2023, 17:05
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

According to this article (you will need to browser translate it) Ukraine has depleted uranium ammunition since the 1960s.
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  #9193  
Old 26.03.2023, 17:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Very sensible statement by Zelensky

"President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Ukraine's counter-offensive against Russia cannot start until Western allies send more military support.

He told a Japanese newspaper he would not send his troops to the frontlines without more tanks, artillery and Himars rocket launchers.

"We are waiting for ammunition to arrive from our partners," he said."

Today Ukraine is defending well-fortified positions and inflicting large losses on the Russian attackers, it makes no sense for Ukraine to change roles and risk increased losses by going on the attack.

Once Ukraine receives the promised longer-range rockets then 90% of the occupied territories will be in range and, so long as their air defense is in good shape, they can pound away at the invaders in relatively safely.
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  #9194  
Old 26.03.2023, 17:41
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Once Ukraine receives the promised longer-range rockets then 90% of the occupied territories will be in range and, so long as their air defense is in good shape, they can pound away at the invaders in relatively safely.
You do realize that an offensive means that you actually have to move into territory held by your opponent? All the fanboys who found the failing Russian attack on Vuhledar so amusing will have to realize that also Ukraine will have to clear strongly fortified and mined territory once they go on the offensive. You make it sound like they would just fire missiles and the Russians would leave.
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  #9195  
Old 26.03.2023, 19:24
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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You do realize that an offensive means that you actually have to move into territory held by your opponent? All the fanboys who found the failing Russian attack on Vuhledar so amusing will have to realize that also Ukraine will have to clear strongly fortified and mined territory once they go on the offensive. You make it sound like they would just fire missiles and the Russians would leave.
It is entirely a decision for the Russians to leave or to stay and die.

The approach of using Western long-range weapons was very successful in the Kherson offensive, even the Russians admitted they abandoned the area because they could no longer keep their troops supplied.

Once Ukraine has the longer-range rockets they will be able to target the trains that the Russians like to use for logistics and then the Russian supply problems will multiply.
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  #9196  
Old 26.03.2023, 19:45
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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It is entirely a decision for the Russians to leave or to stay and die.

The approach of using Western long-range weapons was very successful in the Kherson offensive, even the Russians admitted they abandoned the area because they could no longer keep their troops supplied.

Once Ukraine has the longer-range rockets they will be able to target the trains that the Russians like to use for logistics and then the Russian supply problems will multiply.
Ukraine lost thousands of soldiers during the Kherson battle. That is precisely why I questioned your "pounce away in relative safety" nonsense.
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  #9197  
Old 26.03.2023, 19:50
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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It is entirely a decision for the Russians to leave or to stay and die.

The approach of using Western long-range weapons was very successful in the Kherson offensive, even the Russians admitted they abandoned the area because they could no longer keep their troops supplied.

Once Ukraine has the longer-range rockets they will be able to target the trains that the Russians like to use for logistics and then the Russian supply problems will multiply.
You don't win a war without infantry going in and actually taking the area, no amount of artillery, conventional or long range, can change that. Cherson was unique because UA was able to cut off the right bank from Russian supplies by destroying the bridges, a low hanging fruit if you will, but even that must have come with a heavy toll.

Something similar might apply again, elsewhere, if UA were able to drive a wedge to the south somewhere east of Zaporizhzhia. But that would require a massive infantry offensive into heavily fortified and mined enemy territory. The attackers would be under most intensive fire from the eastern and western front of that corridor, especially from the east as that's where most supplies would come from.

A precursor to that would probably another attack on, and complete interruption of, the Kerch Bridge to cut off Crimea from supplies from there. But that bridge will now be heavily protected, too, you're not going to destroy it during a Sunday walk. If it was easy, as you try to paint it, it would have happened long ago already.

But even a successful attack would come with tens of thousands of casualties. There's a patently obvious reason why UA doesn't publish its casualties numbers.
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Old 26.03.2023, 20:03
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Many Russian soldiers would leave if they could. And the same is true with Ukrainian soldiers.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukra...lee-wsj-2023-3


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You make it sound like they would just fire missiles and the Russians would leave.
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Old 26.03.2023, 21:48
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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You do realize that an offensive means that you actually have to move into territory held by your opponent? All the fanboys who found the failing Russian attack on Vuhledar so amusing will have to realize that also Ukraine will have to clear strongly fortified and mined territory once they go on the offensive. You make it sound like they would just fire missiles and the Russians would leave.
This is a dirty war and the mechanics of it are more "put them to the sword" than something fitting the 21st century, (whatever that may be) It shows that civilized behavior is just veneer thin and underneath that is raw, crazed monkey on crazed monkey bashing their heads in with rocks.
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  #9200  
Old 26.03.2023, 22:14
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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This is a dirty war and the mechanics of it are more "put them to the sword" than something fitting the 21st century, (whatever that may be) It shows that civilized behavior is just veneer thin and underneath that is raw, crazed monkey on crazed monkey bashing their heads in with rocks.
Isn’t that true of all current conflicts, though? The days of pausing hostilities for a gentlemanly kickabout on Christmas morning died best part of a century ago.

Ukraine/Russia is shitty but no less shitty than any other conflict elsewhere.
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