World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine? - Page 464

Axa · #**9261** 05.04.2023, 18:15

	Quote:	slammer
	Absolutely, it’s just that now It would seem that the Cold War never ended. It could have been so different though we could have seen a planet slowly growing together. But we have business as usual instead of progress.

Is that based on facts and interpretation of past events or feelings?

slammer · #**9262** 05.04.2023, 20:38

	Quote:	Axa
	Is that based on facts and interpretation of past events or feelings?

Well it certainly looked that way, at least for a while. Remember when they sold us the "peace dividend?" And promised that the funds that had until then been spent on "defense" would be better used in schools, hospitals, infrastructure yadda, yadda, yadda. And that future differences would be resolved on the negotiating table and with trade relations.
I believed in that and hoped for a better future, instead we get this...!

komsomolez · #**9263** 05.04.2023, 21:11

	Quote:	slammer
	Absolutely, it’s just that now It would seem that the Cold War never ended. It could have been so different though we could have seen a planet slowly growing together. But we have business as usual instead of progress.

Yeah. What Russia could have become! Now it's time to cough up dough and repay that "peace premium" weaklings like Schroeder and Merkel promised.

And dare I say the China premium will come back kicking soon? This Xi mofo does not seem at all like he is driven by the Deng Xioaping business acumen.

nejc · #**9264** 05.04.2023, 21:21

	Quote:	slammer
	...It could have been so different though we could have seen a planet slowly growing together. But we have business as usual instead of progress.

Maybe it's time to go into the woods and start singing Kumbaya? If this doesn't help probably some snake oil or magic crystals could work? Or just ask Ukrainians if they can accept a brutal overlord so you can keep dreaming. You deserve it!

Excad · #**9265** 05.04.2023, 21:50

	Quote:	nejc
	Maybe it's time to go into the woods and start singing Kumbaya? If this doesn't help probably some snake oil or magic crystals could work? Or just ask Ukrainians if they can accept a brutal overlord so you can keep dreaming. You deserve it!

I think that is a bit harsh.

Did Europe put too much trust into Putin's government?
- Yes. Sadly, we know it only after the milk is already spilled.

Is it wrong to aim only for peaceful solutions?
- No.

marton · #**9266** 05.04.2023, 23:03

Politicians give me a headache!!

	Quote:
	China's Ambassador to the European Union, Fu Cong, commenting on Xi and Putin's statement about "no limit" friendship between China and Russia, which they signed three weeks before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the ambassador said that China was not on Russia's side in the war and that some people "deliberately misinterpret this because there's the so-called 'no limit' friendship or relationship." "'No limit' is nothing but rhetoric," the diplomat said.

Any bets on how long Fu Cong will survive, or is it true?

Rumours are that China is deeply unhappy with recent Russian nuclear rhetoric.

robBob · #**9267** 06.04.2023, 09:29

	Quote:	marton
	Politicians give me a headache!! Any bets on how long Fu Cong will survive, or is it true? Rumours are that China is deeply unhappy with recent Russian nuclear rhetoric.

Unfortunately can't read the Times without subscribing. But googled an excerpt here https://news.yahoo.com/chinas-ambass...135459397.html

IMO any leadership with common sense doesn't take well to nuclear threats. And that coming from RU is nothing recent.

Believe China's tea policy, like politics in general, is full of promises that are only words. Like tennis where Love is nothing.

Axa · #**9268** 06.04.2023, 13:03

	Quote:	slammer
	Well it certainly looked that way, at least for a while. Remember when they sold us the "peace dividend?" And promised that the funds that had until then been spent on "defense" would be better used in schools, hospitals, infrastructure yadda, yadda, yadda. And that future differences would be resolved on the negotiating table and with trade relations. I believed in that and hoped for a better future, instead we get this...!

Well, that's more or less what happened. Look at Cuban Missile Crisis times. US spent 9% of GPD on defense. UK 7%, France 5+%, Germany 4.5%, Finland 2+%.

USSR collapses, and during Papa Bush times, US defense budget goes from 6 to 4% of GDP. Damned junior arrives and makes it go from 3 to 5% (Iraq/Afghanistan). But defense budget came down again to ~3% with Obama/Trump.

The trend in Europe is downwards over the last 30 years. 2021 numbers: UK 2.2%, France 2%, Germany, 1.3%. Quite interesting, Finland above 2% for the first time in 60 years....mmmmm, I guess Finland has a working intelligence organization. After looking at these numbers, it seems premonitory.

The point of all this is that the decrease in military budgets in Europe and roughly became social spending. Seriously doubt modern European welfare budgets could be sustained with Cold War times defense budgets. So, is the peace dividend a mirage?

Finally, Mr. Putin. The Russian Federation had a decreasing trend in defense budget until he took control. Sad for Russians.

As bonus, countries in Europe with dictatorships during the 1970s: Greece, Spain, Portugal, Yugoslavia, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Albania, Bulgaria, Poland and Hungary with soft dictatorships. None of those countries and subsequent countries are under a dictatorship today. We are living in the better future.

And that's only Europe, if you open your eyes to the rest of the world, the progress is remarkable. Remarkable may be an understatement, astonishing. Famines not caused by wars are almost a thing of the past. If you look at poverty (all the definitions), it has gone down globally since the end of Cold War. We are living in the better future.

So, is all the progress in Europe and around the world erased because the actions of a single dictator? Come on, read more history, travel more. You're living in another country, speak and read other languages, that should give some perspective. We cannot have the worldview of someone that never left the hometown and only watches TV, right?

slammer · #**9269** 06.04.2023, 16:43

	Quote:	Axa
	Well, that's more or less what happened. Look at Cuban Missile Crisis times. US spent 9% of GPD on defense. UK 7%, France 5+%, Germany 4.5%, Finland 2+%. USSR collapses, and during Papa Bush times, US defense budget goes from 6 to 4% of GDP. Damned junior arrives and makes it go from 3 to 5% (Iraq/Afghanistan). But defense budget came down again to ~3% with Obama/Trump. The trend in Europe is downwards over the last 30 years. 2021 numbers: UK 2.2%, France 2%, Germany, 1.3%. Quite interesting, Finland above 2% for the first time in 60 years....mmmmm, I guess Finland has a working intelligence organization. After looking at these numbers, it seems premonitory. The point of all this is that the decrease in military budgets in Europe and roughly became social spending. Seriously doubt modern European welfare budgets could be sustained with Cold War times defense budgets. So, is the peace dividend a mirage? Finally, Mr. Putin. The Russian Federation had a decreasing trend in defense budget until he took control. Sad for Russians. As bonus, countries in Europe with dictatorships during the 1970s: Greece, Spain, Portugal, Yugoslavia, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Albania, Bulgaria, Poland and Hungary with soft dictatorships. None of those countries and subsequent countries are under a dictatorship today. We are living in the better future. And that's only Europe, if you open your eyes to the rest of the world, the progress is remarkable. Remarkable may be an understatement, astonishing. Famines not caused by wars are almost a thing of the past. If you look at poverty (all the definitions), it has gone down globally since the end of Cold War. We are living in the better future. So, is all the progress in Europe and around the world erased because the actions of a single dictator? Come on, read more history, travel more. You're living in another country, speak and read other languages, that should give some perspective. We cannot have the worldview of someone that never left the hometown and only watches TV, right?

That is interesting, I knew the overall spending for the (US) military was down, but not how far. However at the same time the department of energy‘s spending for the nuclear forces has increased to over the amount. And as they are not included in the military budget, I find it just robbing Peter to pay Paul.
Could be wrong though, my interest goss only so far.

Axa · #**9270** 06.04.2023, 18:21

	Quote:	slammer
	That is interesting, I knew the overall spending for the (US) military was down, but not how far. However at the same time the department of energy‘s spending for the nuclear forces has increased to over the amount. And as they are not included in the military budget, I find it just robbing Peter to pay Paul. Could be wrong though, my interest goss only so far.

That's why I asked if the opinion came from only feelings or an attempt to built it from quantifiable facts.

Yes, there is a risky dictator wreaking havoc. But giving the idiot too much importance is letting the terrorist win.....now I need a stiff drink. I just wrote that.

marton · #**9271** 06.04.2023, 18:33

	Quote:	slammer
	That is interesting, I knew the overall spending for the (US) military was down, but not how far. However at the same time the department of energy‘s spending for the nuclear forces has increased to over the amount. And as they are not included in the military budget, I find it just robbing Peter to pay Paul. Could be wrong though, my interest goss only so far.

You are wrong.

DOE budgets for its nuclear weapons laboratories and supporting activities would total $142 billion over the 2021–2030 period

US military budget over the same period $8,500 Billion.

The overall spending for the (US) military was not down, it has increased every year since 2015 (same link).

slammer · #**9272** 06.04.2023, 21:32

	Quote:	Axa
	That's why I asked if the opinion came from only feelings or an attempt to built it from quantifiable facts. Yes, there is a risky dictator wreaking havoc. But giving the idiot too much importance is letting the terrorist win.....now I need a stiff drink. I just wrote that.

I am shocked and stunned... That´s almost like a drunk nun shouting "Fornication!" during mass.

Phil_MCR · #**9273** 06.04.2023, 23:48

Video of one UA operation to push back RU by 1-2kms. I guess this is taking place across UA each day. Warning: war footage:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fifpgIJkxXA

slammer · #**9274** 07.04.2023, 11:15

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	Video of one UA operation to push back RU by 1-2kms. I guess this is taking place across UA each day. Warning: war footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fifpgIJkxXA

It watches like a movie trailer. It´s a classical tale: "Brave underdog beats big bad bully" Throw in a love story and you have an instant Oscar ready Hollywood blockbuster.
In the age of ticktoc and the soundbite and the three minute video I do miss reports from the unbiased journalist and the old-timey war corespondent like John Simpson, William H. Russel, Peter Arnett and others though.
I doubt that we will see something like that again, after Vietnam the US government blamed the Media for loosing the war by showing what it was really going on against the governments narrative of a clean and healthy and fun war.
And since then no government worth their salt will allow any kind of free reporting ever again.
I believe that if the true horrors of this war were to be broadcast on the news at eight, this war would be over in days.

ShirleyNot · #**9275** 07.04.2023, 11:26

John Simpson is still an active journalist for the BBC. He has a show on BBC World called Unspun World which is pretty good.

slammer · #**9276** 07.04.2023, 11:39

	Quote:	ShirleyNot
	John Simpson is still an active journalist for the BBC. He has a show on BBC World called Unspun World which is pretty good.

Oooo thanks! Have to watch that, I really like John Simpson.

....*Curses!* Geo-Blocked or behind a paywall.

marton · #**9277** 07.04.2023, 16:24

	Quote:	slammer
	As I said: "The fine line between fascism and democracy" Not that they are fascist. What you have to remember is that Fascism is an Italian invention, but the envelope of what constitutes a fascist is more or less determined by those on the opposing side. And a fascist may or may not recognize that his or her views are deemed to be fascist by those on the other side of the fence. I think that the definition is unclear because the definition of fascism, as we understand it, is very flexible. It is not just defined by having a person cult, that is way too simple as you can also have a gremium, a committee or a cabal, For instance: Trump was well on the way to set up a fascist state with himself as the supreme leader. The Duma, with Putin at its head is by all definition fascist. And don’t get me started on theocracies and global companies, Iran, the Vatican, any organization with a leader and dedicated followers, Microsoft, Apple etc. they can all be tossed into the fascist pot- The question I have is: „If the powers were to oust basic democracy and clamp down on a persons rights in the name of protecting the people, or protecting the integrity of the state, could a country with a right and/or conservative background and a strong character as its head be on track to eventually become fascist?“ You see my fascist radar is well calibrated.

"The fine line between fascism and democracy" Much as I hate to say it you may have a point.

"Tennessee House Republicans voted on Thursday to expel two Democratic Black freshman lawmakers for speaking out of turn in a gun safety protest" In Tennessee, only two other House members have been removed before today’s proceedings, both after criminal violations or sexual misconduct, never for only having different political views.
A third Democratic white lawmaker who was at the same gun safety protest survived a similar vote to expel, probably just a coincidence she was the only white one of the three

The process of removing lawmakers is usually a bipartisan undertaking in most states never naked partisanship".

Urs Max · #**9278** 07.04.2023, 21:11

	Quote:	marton
	"The fine line between fascism and democracy" Much as I hate to say it you may have a point.

Where's the fascism? And what do you think led to the different vote result for the three?

Axa · #**9279** 08.04.2023, 00:12

Well, jokes on twitter about who's the bank that handled the 1.2 billion. Of course, multiple shipments. So, which bank is in trouble? Hopefully, it's not the shinny new Credit BS.

I hope too it's not one of the neobanks offering accounts and services for free. Now you know how they can afford to give away freebies.

PS. FT keeps publishing great stuff.

	Quote:
	The UK business that shipped $1.2bn of electronics to Russia Company registered to terraced house in London sent goods including semiconductors, according to customs data A British business registered to a terraced house in a north London suburb appears to have arranged the sale of about $1.2bn of electronics into Russia since Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine at the start of 2022. Mykines Corporation LLP, a company based in the London borough of Enfield, is listed in Russian records as having sent shipments including semiconductors, servers, laptops, computer components, telecoms network equipment and consumer electronics. The records list brands ranging from Huawei and H3C to Intel, AMD, Apple and Samsung. According to these customs filings, at least $982mn of the goods listed as sent by Mykines are subject to restrictions on export by UK companies or individuals to Russia. Sale of these goods to Russia without permission from the UK authorities may constitute a breach of its sanctions, even though the goods shipped by Mykines entered Russia from other countries — largely China. These findings raise questions over the effectiveness of the attempts to clamp down on Russia’s ability to obtain critical technologies used by the country’s military industrial complex. The raw data analysed by the Financial Times was obtained from Maxim Mironov, a professor at IE Business School in Madrid who is an expert on analysis of customs flows. A subset of the records was corroborated by comparison to data from ImportGenius, a commercial customs data provider..... While most of the goods appear to be primarily civilian in nature, Marsala has declared in Russian official listings that one of its counterparties is Microcontract, a company that owns a joint venture with Novgorod State University Engineering Center. This centre, launched in collaboration with Rostec, the vast state-owned military conglomerate, lists its areas of research as including aviation and drones, microelectronics, sensors and industrial electronics. Some of the customs records have errors — or may have been the subject of subterfuge. For example, there are six entries logging the import of paper. But the implied price of this paper is, in some cases, $500,000 a kilogramme. The purported paper is also listed as having been made by Huawei and New H3C Technologies, Chinese high-end technology companies.

https://www.ft.com/content/bdd8c518-...b-bfbe512e2e92

slammer · #**9280** 08.04.2023, 10:04

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Where's the fascism? And what do you think led to the different vote result for the three?

Fascism is a many sided dice. It´s not just the "Heil den Führer" type. In this case it seems that these two were expelled by a majority of Republicans for becoming rather vocal about guns and joining a demonstration of pupils and students after a shooting in Nashville that left three children and three teachers dead, this was the 19th school shooting this year and the 166th overall by the way.
And lets not even go there about the guys being black.
So what do we have here? Sanctions, and censorship (unable to speak freely) and crackdown on dissent by a body of people in power unwilling or unable to use democratic means to deal with the overall gun problem.
These are the same guys, don´t forget, that banned any kind of abortion from the very minute of conception after Wade vrs. Roe was overturned.
So yes, Urs Max, the line between democracy and fascism is very fine indeed.

On another note did you ever see the film "Die Welle" about just how easy it is to get people on board with fascism?
https://www.google.com/search?q=die+...id:qkztDM5ukbw
It was based on the experiment "The third wave" in a Californian university during the late sixties which ended in the conclusion that fascism can come at anytime, anywhere and with anybody.