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  #9521  
Old 31.05.2023, 11:26
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I think Ukraine has to be careful here. Attacks on Russian soil, especially non-military targets could be counter-productive. They are more likely to embolden Moscow's narrative rather than start a coup. Additionally, such attacks p*ss off Western countries who are supplying them with aid.
Yes, BUT. As part of a counter offensive prep which defocuses Russia from the battlefield and forces them to ramp up air defences over Moscow, it has high tactical value. On top, it wakes up a few Moscovites who are blissfully chosing to turn a blind eye and pretend nothing is happening. Russia has no other option but to divert management attention to beefing up defenses inside the country which gives more options to the Ukrainians on the battlefield.

And I don't think these are not communicated with the western partners, it's just that the west has to play it "pissed off"
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  #9522  
Old 31.05.2023, 11:47
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

- Demoralise the enemy civilian population.
- Force the enemy to divert resources from the front.
- Sow the wind and reap the whirlwind

I've heard these arguments before in support of some previous famous bombing campaign. Innocent people died because of those.
I'm hearing variations of the above again in this thread.
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  #9523  
Old 31.05.2023, 12:30
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I've heard these arguments before in support of some previous famous bombing campaign. Innocent people died because of those.
I'm hearing variations of the above again in this thread.

Zero innocent civilians killed in the drone attack on Moscow. Over 8000 innocent Ukrainians killed by the Russians. End of discussion.
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  #9524  
Old 31.05.2023, 13:36
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Zero innocent civilians killed in the drone attack on Moscow. Over 8000 innocent Ukrainians killed by the Russians. End of discussion.
I'm sure we both hope that those figures don't change.

My point was that revenge is not a good case for civilian attacks. Furthermore bombings have historically done little to demoralise the population. I would hate to see anyone die for the sake of those arguments.
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Old 31.05.2023, 14:57
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Nobody has claimed responsibility for the 32 drones (Russian Govt. says 8) that attacked Moscow.

Either as a strong hint or as an act of provocation, the group of Russian dissidents who attacked Belgorod is advertising for drone pilots.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials said an explosion near the Three Sisters monument at the border with Belarus, Russia and Ukraine on Tuesday was due to Russian forces blowing up the Chernihiv-Bryansk road.

Ukraine is managing to keep its sense of humour.

"Andriy Yermak, the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, posted on Telegram: "Russians blow up the roads on the borders on which they went 'to take Kyiv in three days'.""
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  #9526  
Old 31.05.2023, 15:01
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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My point was that revenge is not a good case for civilian attacks. Furthermore bombings have historically done little to demoralise the population. I would hate to see anyone die for the sake of those arguments.

Where exactly did you see, hear or assume it's revenge that is driving the Ukrainians?!
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  #9527  
Old 01.06.2023, 13:43
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Where exactly did you see, hear or assume it's revenge that is driving the Ukrainians?!
My comment wasn't about Uktrainians' motivations
My original comment was on opinions on this thread that seem to say that attacking Russian civilians was justified because of what has happened in the Ukraine. I was answering to this comment:
https://www.englishforum.ch/3484740-post9520.html

Your comment suggests that retribution for 8000 casualties is justified. I'm not sure if you are limiting the justification for as long as it is only property damage, or even if it would include some innocent Russian casualties.
https://www.englishforum.ch/3484763-post9523.html

Last edited by greenmark; 01.06.2023 at 13:55.
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  #9528  
Old 01.06.2023, 16:13
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Your comment suggests that retribution for 8000 casualties is justified.

No, I neither said, implied or suggested that retribution towards innocent civilians is justified. What I said was that the logic behind the drone attacks on Moscow to spread the attention of the russian army and defocus them from the front will help the Ukrainians win back the territory which the Russians have occupied.
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  #9529  
Old 01.06.2023, 21:34
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

I think the logic is different:

To force Russia to spread its military thinner to defend other areas besides the occupied territories.
To show the Russian public that the war is real and that the Russian leadership is doing a bad job.

And personally I don't care about the moral implications. Russia doesn't spare anyone and the Russian public supports this.
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  #9530  
Old 01.06.2023, 22:36
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I think the logic is different:

To force Russia to spread its military thinner to defend other areas besides the occupied territories.
To show the Russian public that the war is real and that the Russian leadership is doing a bad job.

And personally I don't care about the moral implications. Russia doesn't spare anyone and the Russian public supports this.
Russia's professional army has been heavily reduced (Killed/Wounded) and I believe most of their army now is composed of the so-called recently mobilised.
How well will they stand up against a strong counter-offensive?
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  #9531  
Old 01.06.2023, 23:31
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Russia's professional army has been heavily reduced (Killed/Wounded) and I believe most of their army now is composed of the so-called recently mobilised.
How well will they stand up against a strong counter-offensive?
The Russians are never as strong as they believe and never as weak as we believe. The defenses they've built are not to be underestimated. The Ukrainians have a very tough campaign ahead of them and we cannot do much but wish them all the luck they deserve.
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  #9532  
Old 02.06.2023, 08:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The Russians are never as strong as they believe and never as weak as we believe. The defenses they've built are not to be underestimated. The Ukrainians have a very tough campaign ahead of them and we cannot do much but wish them all the luck they deserve.
Indeed wish them both luck and skill.

I believe the counteroffensive will go one of two ways. Most likely Ukraine will have a long slow grind trying to defeat Russian defenses, less likely is the Russians will collapse and run like in Kharkiv.

Some unknowns are the quality of the Russian construction and how well Ukraine will do at finding and exploiting any weak points, defending a 1,000 Km front line is not easy.
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  #9533  
Old 03.06.2023, 16:28
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?


There is an unconfirmed rumour going around about Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko that he was poisoned during his trip to Moscow to watch the military parade on 9th May and is still in the hospital there.
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  #9534  
Old 04.06.2023, 09:00
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The Russians are never as strong as they believe and never as weak as we believe. The defenses they've built are not to be underestimated. The Ukrainians have a very tough campaign ahead of them and we cannot do much but wish them all the luck they deserve.
The Belgorod governor claimed to have spent 10 billion roubles (Russian language) on defenses but the dissident Russian group seems to waltz in and out whenever they want to, one wonders what happened to the money.
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  #9535  
Old 04.06.2023, 14:05
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The Belgorod governor claimed to have spent 10 billion roubles (Russian language) on defenses but the dissident Russian group seems to waltz in and out whenever they want to, one wonders what happened to the money.
Edit: Russian officials have reported deadly attacks in at least four locations in the Belgorod region and Ukrainian-aligned Russian units are ramping up their incursions, bringing the war to Russian territory.

Edit; At least seven people have been killed by shelling in Russian border regions since Friday, according to Belgorod's regional Gov. Vyacheslav Gladkov.

There are unconfirmed claims that most of population has abandoned the Russian border town Shebekino.

Here's an unconfirmed video claim of people looting shops
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...=wartranslated
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  #9536  
Old 04.06.2023, 14:35
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Edit; At least seven people have been killed by shelling in Russian border regions since Friday, according to Belgorod's regional Gov. Vyacheslav Gladkov.
Is that from Russian forces firing at suspected Ukrainian positions?
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  #9537  
Old 04.06.2023, 17:12
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Is that from Russian forces firing at suspected Ukrainian positions?
Quite possibly, today's news;

"Fresh shelling from Ukraine rocked Belgorod overnight, the governor said in a video posted Sunday morning, as Russian dissidents ramp up pressure on the western border region.

Gov. Vyacheslav Gladkov said there had been Ukrainian attacks in several locations under his administration.

Due to the violence, 4,000 people are being housed in temporary accommodations. Children in the area are being moved to a camp in Crimea for their own safety, Gladkov added."

According to the last census, the population of Shebekino was ca. 40,000 so it seems most of them are still there.

"The governor of the Belgorod region, (in Russian) Vyacheslav Gladkov, called for residents of border settlements located near the border with Ukraine and subjected to shelling to "temporarily leave their homes".

Surprisingly weak response, according to Russian social media Gadkov has created some militias for defense but not given them any weapons

Edit: If there were not so many people dying and injured it would be black humour.
"Today, earlier, (Russian language) the commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps (the dissident group that attacked Belgorod), Denis Nikitin, made a statement against the background of a soldier and officer of the Russian Armed Forces captured when entering its territory, where he suggested to the governor of the Belgorod region that as a gesture of goodwill, he was ready to give these prisoners for the opportunity to communicate with Gladkov personally"

"Novaya Tavolzhanka now being shelled, this is a Russian village about 1 Km from the border and about 2 Km southwest of Shebekino" seems pointless to me?

Last edited by marton; 04.06.2023 at 17:43.
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  #9538  
Old 05.06.2023, 09:07
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

The Russians are claiming to have foiled a counter-offensive move by UA:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65806152

To be honest, Ukraine may have a lot of difficulty with their counter-offensive. Russia has been digging in for the last 6 months at least with some quite comprehensive defenses.

F-16s would help. A few A-10s and Spectres wouldn't hurt either.
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  #9539  
Old 05.06.2023, 13:35
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

The propaganda war is getting hotter, who knows what is true any more.

"Ukraine has cultivated a network of agents and sympathizers inside Russia working to carry out acts of sabotage against Russian targets and has begun providing them with drones to stage attacks, multiple people familiar with US intelligence on the matter told CNN."

Edit: more propaganda
Russia’s Wagner mercenary group has captured a Russian officer, Lieutenant Colonel Roman Venevitin, commander of the Russian Ground Forces’ 72nd Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade, accused of firing at its positions during the battle for Bakhmut last month, the private military outfit said Sunday in the most dramatic account yet of internecine clashes during Russia’s offensive on Ukraine, with video.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/...sitions-a81395

Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is really pushing Putin to look for red lines

Last edited by marton; 05.06.2023 at 14:33.
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  #9540  
Old 05.06.2023, 18:37
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

"Several Russian TV channels and radio stations were hacked to broadcast a fake message from Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin said on Monday.

This was indeed a hack," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Monday. "Control has already been restored."

The fake announcement claimed that "Ukrainian troops armed to the teeth by NATO and with Washington's consent and support have invaded the Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk" regions.

It also announced, falsely, that martial law had been declared and that a general evacuation of citizens was underway in the three border regions."

Claims are they imitated Putin's voice

Also unverified claims of Leopard tanks in action.

Seems after a long stalemate that action is now hotting up, I wish Ukraine every success.

Edit: Sarcasm from convicted terrorist Igor Girkin

"I'm very much restless.... But if someone thinks that I am worried about the retreat of our troops from the village of Berkhovka (north of Bakhmut), or enemy attacks in the Volnovakha direction, or continuous shelling of Shebekino and its environs, then he is mistaken.

I'm terribly worried about Maryinka! Is it possible that in the 16th month of the assault it will not be taken?
Even now - after the president himself paid special attention to this strategic point and a certain regimental commander by the name of Cossack promised him that he would definitely liberate the village?
And also promised by the Chechens, known for their indestructible word?"

"Now, if the offensive is successfully repulsed, Peskov (or even Sam) will come out and tell what he "kept under control at the combat post every day around the clock."
And if they don't beat it off - well - then Prigozhin will tell everyone once again and in even harsher terms what a bad MO we have ... and everyone will understand that the Supreme Non-Commander has absolutely nothing to do with it."

Last edited by marton; 05.06.2023 at 18:53.
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