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  #9561  
Old 07.06.2023, 19:03
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Ukraine Capt. Andrei Pidlisnyi who is on the front line on the higher left bank using drones claimed to have seen many Russian soldiers swept away by the flood. No estimates of the numbers of killed and wounded.

There are some theories that Russia will move its soldiers from this area to reinforce other parts of the front line, the success of this will depend on how many are still combat capable.

The international humanitarian organization CARE cautioned that landmines are likely floating in the flood of water unleashed by the collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam in the southern Kherson region. The international red cross has reported in the past of land mines being washed away by very heavy rain.
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  #9562  
Old 07.06.2023, 19:48
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Interesting. Bold move, if true. There are a few details that don't seem plausible (like all 6 operators reporting directly to Zaluzhny), but one can see the rationale. Risky, and I did not think UA could have done this, but seems that it worked out without damaging the support of Germany and France.
That's a leak of what supposedly was planned, not a proof of what actually happened. Well, this is war, I'm not surprised or scandalized.

Ukrainians are cornered, I wouldn't be surprised if they had more nasty surprises - I guess on top of their list would be getting Ukraine and Belarus neighbors directly entangled in the war.
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  #9563  
Old 07.06.2023, 22:33
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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That's a leak of what supposedly was planned, not a proof of what actually happened. Well, this is war, I'm not surprised or scandalized.

Ukrainians are cornered, I wouldn't be surprised if they had more nasty surprises - I guess on top of their list would be getting Ukraine and Belarus neighbors directly entangled in the war.
Yes, that's why I wrote "if true". The level of detail in several reports now though makes me think this could very well be.
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  #9564  
Old 08.06.2023, 08:40
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Several Russian sources are noticing a dramatic increase in fire and assault on their positions tonight in Zaporizhzhia direction. They say tanks are attacking their positions and shelling is non-stop
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  #9565  
Old 08.06.2023, 10:12
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Was looking for satellite images for the region, but not found anything yet. At least not free. Any source?

I just work with GIS for the job. So, just curiosity of how it looks, I'm no military officer haha.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/s...14243855048706


There's more detailed satellite photos scattered around the news articles on The Guardian and BBC.
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  #9566  
Old 08.06.2023, 10:25
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Tactical retreat 101: Blow up all bridges, tunnels and any other infrastructure behind you if it can slow down the enemy.The dam was effectively a bridge, clearly it was destroyed by the Russians as they run back to Mama.
Based on feelings or actual facts? The amount of propaganda when it comes to this war is dam blowing!

No one on this forum knows who actually did it. Until we are presented with a smoking gun, let us try not to mix feelings with facts. People were convinced Nord Stream pipeline was blown up by Russia too, right?
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  #9567  
Old 08.06.2023, 10:46
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Based on feelings or actual facts? The amount of propaganda when it comes to this war is dam blowing!

Well, the facts are:


1. Ukraine did indeed bomb the dam in 2022 with Himars to prevent Russian supplies and one strike partially damaging one of the dam's floodgates to test if the missile would be able to open it as "last resort" in case of Russian offensive. More here


2. During this part of the war, the dam wall did not collapse, it collapsed now when the Russians are retreating and clearly bombarded it.


3. The RESPONSIBILITY is clearly with the Russians. The ONLY unknown is whether this was a miscalculation (they wanted a smaller damage and a smaller flooding) OR it was completely intentional at this scale.
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  #9568  
Old 08.06.2023, 11:11
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

The easy way to work out who blew it up is to immediately start repair work. Which ever side interferes with this effort is clearly the culprit.
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  #9569  
Old 08.06.2023, 11:57
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

now that it has been blown up anyway, perhaps it would have been better for UA to have blown it up a few months earlier.
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  #9570  
Old 08.06.2023, 12:06
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Well, the facts are:


1. Ukraine did indeed bomb the dam in 2022 with Himars to prevent Russian supplies and one strike partially damaging one of the dam's floodgates to test if the missile would be able to open it as "last resort" in case of Russian offensive. More here


2. During this part of the war, the dam wall did not collapse, it collapsed now when the Russians are retreating and clearly bombarded it.


3. The RESPONSIBILITY is clearly with the Russians. The ONLY unknown is whether this was a miscalculation (they wanted a smaller damage and a smaller flooding) OR it was completely intentional at this scale.
Agree it was the Russians.

Bombardment would not collapse the dam, nothing short of nuclear would. Without nuclear the dam could only be destroyed by placing tons of explosives within the dam like in the turbine hall which would not have been possible for Ukraine.

Flooding is very unpleasant for the Russian troops sitting in bunkers and trenches, and the Institute for Study of War claims they fled although Ukraine states they are still shelling the west bank.

Russians are doing nothing to evacuate civilians from the east bank. There is a Telegram site here (Russian language) with many sad stories but I cannot access the site at the moment maybe you will have better luck.
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  #9571  
Old 08.06.2023, 12:17
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/s...14243855048706

There's more detailed satellite photos scattered around the news articles on The Guardian and BBC.
Insane. It seems this whole chunk of Kherson is underwater. It was a industrial zone and a port.

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  #9572  
Old 08.06.2023, 14:02
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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now that it has been blown up anyway, perhaps it would have been better for UA to have blown it up a few months earlier.
Not possible, Russian troops captured Nova Kakhovka and the Kakhovka HPP at the end of February 2022 and have been guarding it ever since.

Ukraine says that 600 sq KM has been flooded, two-thirds on the Russian-occupied east bank.
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  #9573  
Old 08.06.2023, 20:22
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Poland officially discussing with NATO to enter Ukraine with a coalition of the willing without official NATO endorsement.

Impressive these Poles!
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  #9574  
Old 08.06.2023, 21:54
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

The article does not say any of this. It quotes Rasmussen - now an advisor to Zelensky - who speculates about this, and of course mainly wants to put pressure on the US.

Regarding the Poles, yes it has been impressive how they support Ukraine and build up a proper national military capacity. I am concerned that they will get a blanque check in public opinion here, and people overlook the very dangerous authoritarian tendencies of this PiS government. The Economist compared their latest "investigate Russian influence" law to Stalinism.
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Old 08.06.2023, 22:01
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The article does not say any of this. It quotes Rasmussen - now an advisor to Zelensky - who speculates about this, and of course mainly wants to put pressure on the US.

Yes, it's common for the boss of NATO to invent stories and talk on behalf of a member-country without aligning first.


Their shameful internal subjugation of political opposition has nothing to do with this. If there's on thing that unites Poles, it's their dislike for the russkis
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  #9576  
Old 08.06.2023, 22:05
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Yes, it's common for the boss of NATO to invent stories and talk on behalf of a member-country without aligning first
Rasmussen was NATO "boss" until 2014.
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  #9577  
Old 08.06.2023, 22:14
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Rasmussen was NATO "boss" until 2014.
So you're saying he invented the news out of thin air?


This is out more than 1 day and there's no denial by anyone, least by the Poles.
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Old 08.06.2023, 22:19
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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So you're saying he invented the news out of thin air?


This is out more than 1 day and there's no denial by anyone, least by the Poles.
I think you confused Rasmussen with Stoltenberg, only realized this now but cannot just admit you misinterpreted.
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Old 08.06.2023, 22:23
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I think you confused Rasmussen with Stoltenberg, only realized this now but cannot just admit you misinterpreted.

That's not the point. He made the statement yesterday and this has not been challenged neither by NATO nor by the Poles. Which probably means this is coordinated.
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  #9580  
Old 09.06.2023, 09:23
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Agree it was the Russians.

Bombardment would not collapse the dam, nothing short of nuclear would. Without nuclear the dam could only be destroyed by placing tons of explosives within the dam like in the turbine hall which would not have been possible for Ukraine.

Flooding is very unpleasant for the Russian troops sitting in bunkers and trenches, and the Institute for Study of War claims they fled although Ukraine states they are still shelling the west bank.

Russians are doing nothing to evacuate civilians from the east bank. There is a Telegram site here (Russian language) with many sad stories but I cannot access the site at the moment maybe you will have better luck.

Cue Damm busters theme song. Sink a barrel of high explosives against the damm wall and boom! No more damm, this damm seems to have had multiple breeches along the length though. Not easy to do, but not impossible.
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