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  #961  
Old 06.10.2014, 05:37
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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While Russia of course is NOT a superpower at present, it is miles away from starving.
I'd say they are in the cusp of regaining superpower status.
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  #962  
Old 06.10.2014, 12:16
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Sadly, what Putin does in Ukraine can be stopped if Europe stops buying all that gas and oil from Russia. Basically people in Europe have to pay like 2-3x the price for heating and gasoline. In reality all of this "stop Putin" incentives are ended there - when it comes to paying for them.

Indeed UK, France and the US have pledged to protect the borders of Ukraine in 1994, and now when it's time to act, not much is happening. It don't call for a military action, but I call for serious sanctions, or just accept that Ukraine is left behind. Publicly. Say for once - we decided not to do it.

Gas and oil sanctions and Russian economy is 0-ed in months. A ban on export of spares and services for airplanes and nothing flies in Russia in months.

That is serious business.

However even the fluffy stuff that is being done now has some impact, which strongly speaks against Russia being a superpower ATM.

just my 2c.

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  #963  
Old 06.10.2014, 12:25
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Sadly, what Putin does in Ukraine can be stopped if Europe stops buying all that gas and oil from Russia. Basically people in Europe have to pay like 2-3x the price for heating and gasoline. In reality all of this "stop Putin" incentives are ended there - when it comes to paying for them.

Indeed UK, France and the US have pledged to protect the borders of Ukraine in 1994, and now when it's time to act, not much is happening. It don't call for a military action, but I call for serious sanctions, or just accept that Ukraine is left behind. Publicly. Say for once - we decided not to do it.

Gas and oil sanctions and Russian economy is 0-ed in months. A ban on export of spares and services for airplanes and nothing flies in Russia in months.

That is serious business.

However even the fluffy stuff that is being done now has some impact, which strongly speaks against Russia being a superpower ATM.

just my 2c.

_VWV_
About "UK, France and the US have pledged to protect the borders of Ukraine in 1994" So did Russia
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  #964  
Old 06.10.2014, 18:38
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Exactly, and did not give a sh@t. It's a major breach in security, something serious has to follow. Problem is that people in Europe are not ready to pay for that something serious.
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  #965  
Old 08.10.2014, 23:04
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I'd say they are in the cusp of regaining superpower status.
If you mean financially collapsing again like the Soviet Union did, then yes.

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Russia turning into late USSR?

03.10.2014




Economic setback, higher inflation, capital flight, devaluation, restriction of foreign finance, embargo on technology supplies, capital cost growth - all of these problems that Russia has recently face were discussed at "Russia Calling" forum. During the forum, it was said that Russia may well turn into "late USSR," finmarket.ru reports with reference to the Vedomosti newspaper.


http://english.pravda.ru/russia/econ...russia_ussr-0/
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  #966  
Old 22.10.2014, 23:14
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Article in the FT about meeting Russian soldiers in the Ukraine here.
You might need to be a subscriber.
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  #967  
Old 23.10.2014, 07:47
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I'd say they are in the cusp of regaining superpower status.

It indeed IS the aspiration of Mr Putin to get superpower status for Russia. But while the USA is to lose its status as the SOLE superpower on the planet, Russia will have to share with China and India. And the process needs years. But an important step was to regain the Crimea (Sevastopol) and the sealinks to Bulgaria and Northern Turkey
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  #968  
Old 23.10.2014, 15:32
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

I have just read the following article in the Telegraph that might explain a small set back in Putin's desire to be a superpower....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...iet-Union.html

The concept of Russia suffering with "Dutch Disease" raises some interesting issues and despite wide complaints that existing sanctions against Russia are not enough, may prove to me more effective than we realise at first glance.

The West does not wish to cripple Russia (unless it has to) - that would be bad for everyone especially when viewed in conjunction with the other regional instabilities around the Black Sea Basin (IS / ISIL), but it does want to rein it back in line.....this is a tricky operation, especially given Putin's bull headed tactics and ability to tell complete lies both nationally and internationally without even a flicker (good old KGB training).

So the natural resource/economy balance may actually be the way ahead....even if it takes a couple of years to really have the desired effect. If a similar tactic worked for Reagan, it could work again. This is, after all, a game of chess not checkers and as such patience is needed.
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  #969  
Old 27.10.2014, 09:56
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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  #970  
Old 27.10.2014, 10:18
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Looks like the pro-Europe parties in Ukraine have come out on top of the parliamentary elections in Ukraine.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...0IF00R20141026

Looks like Ukraine has united in the face of an external aggressor. Putin may have gotten Crimea, but he's lost Ukraine forever.
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  #971  
Old 27.10.2014, 12:03
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Newspaper reports are that voters are moving to wards the West in their voting in the Ukraine elections yesterday. Of course the Eastern part are likely to only be able to cast few votes due to ongoing fighting and the separatists blocking voting.

Ah, Esto beat me to it!!

Nutty Putin made a speech Friday that somehow wandered between proposing talks to resolve open issues and a lot of anti US invective.
First reaction was rouble fell another 0.3% today; another record low vs US$

Last edited by marton; 27.10.2014 at 12:25. Reason: Update
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  #972  
Old 31.10.2014, 10:55
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

A famous Russian actor wearing "PRESS" markings shoots a few rounds at Ukrainian troops with machine gun in Donetsk...

https://news.pn/en/RussiaInvadedUkraine/117406



Meanwhile, on the other side of town, the "People's Court" of Lugansk sentenced a man to death in a 2 minute trial by a show of hands:



Strange and bizarre times in Eastern Ukraine....
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  #973  
Old 31.10.2014, 15:12
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

In other news, despite daily skirmishes, the "ceasefire" declared a few weeks ago has kept the front-lines more or less stable. However, there are signs that the pro-Russians may be preparing for an offensive backed by regular Russian troops.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/10/3...llery-systems/

http://liveuamap.com/

One of the sticking points of the "Minsk accords" that brought about the cease-fire, was for Russia to secure the border towards Ukraine, however Russia seems not to be interested in this at all, as more and more fighters and tanks pour into the area from Russia. Since this condition has not been met, Western sanctions towards Russia will remain in place, or even escalate.

I suppose since Putin has nothing much to lose, he will probably order an attack in the direction of Crimea, in order to make a land bridge between Russia and Crimea. Currently cars going from Russia have to wait days to cross on a ferry boat, and building a bridge will take years and billions to complete. A military assault would be the quickest and easiest way. The Ukraine military won't be able to stand a full-on assault by Russian troops, as we saw in August, when several thousand regular Russian troops came in to rescue the rebels from defeat at the last minute.
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  #974  
Old 01.11.2014, 00:33
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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In other news, despite daily skirmishes, the "ceasefire" declared a few weeks ago has kept the front-lines more or less stable. However, there are signs that the pro-Russians may be preparing for an offensive backed by regular Russian troops.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/10/3...llery-systems/

http://liveuamap.com/

One of the sticking points of the "Minsk accords" that brought about the cease-fire, was for Russia to secure the border towards Ukraine, however Russia seems not to be interested in this at all, as more and more fighters and tanks pour into the area from Russia. Since this condition has not been met, Western sanctions towards Russia will remain in place, or even escalate.

I suppose since Putin has nothing much to lose, he will probably order an attack in the direction of Crimea, in order to make a land bridge between Russia and Crimea. Currently cars going from Russia have to wait days to cross on a ferry boat, and building a bridge will take years and billions to complete. A military assault would be the quickest and easiest way. The Ukraine military won't be able to stand a full-on assault by Russian troops, as we saw in August, when several thousand regular Russian troops came in to rescue the rebels from defeat at the last minute.

In August, Russian Forces intervened right along Russian territories. I however suppose that the Russian Generals will/would oppose an advance which would put their forces into a precarious strategic position. I can imagine the Russians building a provisional Pontonier-Brücke and to improve the ferry link


Friedrichshafen -Romanshorn
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  #975  
Old 01.11.2014, 01:10
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Russia central bank increased their interest rate by 1.5% to 9.5% today (compare Switzerland @ 0%); I think they have stopped laughing at the Western sanctions

The rouble rose around 3% on Thursday vs US$ on expectation of the increase rate increase but fell again on Friday; what is the saying? "Buy on the rumour, sell on the news "

Last edited by marton; 01.11.2014 at 01:27.
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  #976  
Old 02.11.2014, 22:27
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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In August, Russian Forces intervened right along Russian territories. I however suppose that the Russian Generals will/would oppose an advance which would put their forces into a precarious strategic position. I can imagine the Russians building a provisional Pontonier-Brücke and to improve the ferry link


Friedrichshafen -Romanshorn

You speak like living in a fairy-land.
Russia already sent thousand(s) of their forces in "precarious" positions - ostensibly private "tourists" choosing Ukraine as their "vacation" destination. There is also a perverse consequence to it - had they been repatriated in a galvanized steel coffins - it turned out they've earlier delisted from the army on their own.
Russia is sending more and more personnel and weapons quite openly:
http://mobile2.24heures.ch/articles/...da8b0a950000f9

However, it is still not putting on them the "Russian Army" signs, so that Switzerland et all can play dumb and say "there is no war", "there is no invasion" and carry on the business with blood-stained oligarchs.
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  #977  
Old 02.11.2014, 22:42
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

A few photos to illustrate "precarious" situation:

http://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/o...mpfe-1.2200936

I've heard Swiss cheese exports to Russia increased a lot after EU food import embargo.
Leaches.
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  #978  
Old 04.11.2014, 03:54
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

I still stand by what I said back in August. The annexation of Crimea was proceeded by a "vote". Expect roubles to be handed out as the troops roll in....

I only hope for the remaining parts of the Ukraine that weather over the next months is rather mild.. in GoT terms: Winter is coming.

Last edited by litespeed; 04.11.2014 at 04:18.
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  #979  
Old 04.11.2014, 06:17
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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You speak like living in a fairy-land.
Russia already sent thousand(s) of their forces in "precarious" positions - ostensibly private "tourists" choosing Ukraine as their "vacation" destination. There is also a perverse consequence to it - had they been repatriated in a galvanized steel coffins - it turned out they've earlier delisted from the army on their own.
Russia is sending more and more personnel and weapons quite openly:
http://mobile2.24heures.ch/articles/...da8b0a950000f9

However, it is still not putting on them the "Russian Army" signs, so that Switzerland et all can play dumb and say "there is no war", "there is no invasion" and carry on the business with blood-stained oligarchs.

NO, they HAVE TO do it. They have to improve the link between Southern Russia and Eastern Crimea swiftly.


Lots of the infrastructure of Western Europe of the 1940ies, 1950ies and 60ies was based on military provisional structures of 1943 to 45,




and this includes the Wirtschaftswunder of West Germany. And played a crucial role in the plannings of Konrad Adenauer

Konrad Adenauer (1952) and Ludwig Erhard
.

Last edited by Wollishofener; 04.11.2014 at 06:27.
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  #980  
Old 04.11.2014, 15:22
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Yes, of course, this time Germany couldn't re-arm (as they did all the time after I WW, way before Hitler became their public face) so they actually could put the human resources to a good use. All well-ruled countries were developing quickly then, capitalizing on technical, agricultural and societal revolutions.That was not a wonder. A "wonder" was how a single country could screw the whole continent and stall its development for decades - with silent cooperation of "neutral" countries and on the watch of France, UK and US it the initial years.

A year ago, Russia deployed its ballistic missiles in Kaliningrad, and there was no reaction from the west. Now, as we speak, they're deploying them on their Ukraine border. If you think Russia is only about to build a bridge to Crime-a, then I wish you were right. Of course, they might build it, but maybe they'll not need it anyway.
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