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  #981  
Old 04.11.2014, 16:17
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Really alot of reports of military convoys coming into Ukraine from Russia, not just a few here and there, but long streams of dozens and hundreds at a time (ie: regular Russian troops, aka "little green men")

http://www.ibtimes.com/russian-troop...inners-1717678

If chessmaster Gary Kasparov is any good at predicting future moves, things may get even uglier in the near future

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Putin is now openly preparing for a new offensive in his Ukraine war. Obama & Co are preparing to be shocked.
https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/statu...69564262309888
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  #982  
Old 04.11.2014, 18:13
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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If chessmaster Gary Kasparov is any good at predicting future moves, things may get even uglier in the near future

It was always going to get uglier if Ukraine chose to seek a stronger alliance with the West, which it did. Putin will not let up until he either annexes the Russian dominated east or Kiev relents and tows the Moscow line.

The question is, what will NATO / EU / USA do. Increasing sanctions will probably have little effect, and any military intervention is a Pandora's Box. NATO is years behind in preparation and strategy, and probably concerned at being outgunned. The EU and the USA have their hands full with economic woes and middle-east barbarians.

Borders are being re-drawn, and there is nothing we can do short-term. Best strategy now is to move NATO-loyal forces to borders of neighbouring countries to avoid spill-over.
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  #983  
Old 04.11.2014, 18:43
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Really alot of reports of military convoys coming into Ukraine from Russia, not just a few here and there, but long streams of dozens and hundreds at a time (ie: regular Russian troops, aka "little green men")

http://www.ibtimes.com/russian-troop...inners-1717678

If chessmaster Gary Kasparov is any good at predicting future moves, things may get even uglier in the near future



https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/statu...69564262309888
There were a few articles recently about continued Russian persecution of the Crimean Tartars, for example, here.

Of course, Erdogan has said earlier in the year that he told Putin "Turkey attaches great importance to the Tatars’ well-being and security"

Exactly what Erdogan can do is not clear. Like Western Europe Erdogan gets a lot of gas from Russia so has that to consider.
Turkey also has a million Syrian refugees so does not have room for a lot of Tartar refugees.

The Western sanctions are having an effect on Russia; the currency is collapsing, inflation is rising and the central bank rate is now 9.5%. O course, this is a slow process - more like water dripping on a stone than causing dramatic changes.

Russia taking Eastern Ukraine would also be a financial drain.

It is reported that Saudi is now selling much more oil to China which means less Chinese demand for Russian oil.
Oil prices are also falling; Brent crude was down to $82 at some time today versus over $100 recently which also puts pressure on Russia.

I believe NATO has technical air superiority versus Russia but not number superiority and if the Russian anti aircraft missiles are as good as claimed then that would be a problem.
Also Russia has very large ground forces so sheer force of numbers would be telling; I do not see USA delivering large ground forces to Europe.
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  #984  
Old 04.11.2014, 20:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

You're painting apocalyptic images.
Russia already made threats of using nuclear weapons through their stalking horses. NATO "wouldn't die" for any of the Baltic republics.
Europe could act unified and get better gas deals, throttling down money Kremlin can use for arms. Instead Germany is gaming effectively the Eastern Europe with the NordStream gas pipeline. If it is not collusion that tell me what is.
Russia already threatened expropriations. And did some, albeit behind a veil - e.g. see Magnitsky's case. However German investments are spared so far. Some big countries dream big, and have already sacrificed (part of) Ukraine.
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  #985  
Old 04.11.2014, 21:18
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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It was always going to get uglier if Ukraine chose to seek a stronger alliance with the West, which it did.
In 2004 the Orange Revolution was also a turn towards the West for Ukraine, but Putin didn't do anything, and in the end, there was no real change in Ukraine anyway. I was expecting the "Maidan 2014" to be pretty much the same thing. Except this time Putin went nuts and took Crimea and started a war.

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Russia taking Eastern Ukraine would also be a financial drain.
Ukraine has stopped all deliveries, payments, etc. into DPR/LNR.
In order to support these regions, the Aid convoys from Russia will soon become a regular occurrence. Also, and very strangely, the leaders of DPR/LNR suddenly want to "cooperate" with the ("Fascist!") Ukrainian authorities, because they need food, money, etc. () from them.

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“We are ready to supply coal to Ukrainian regions to normalise the heating season. We need cooperation in supplies of electric energy, agricultural products, in the fields of transport, communications and export-oriented productions. Our economy will work in the hryvna zone if Kiev stops financial blockade,” the statement said.
It seems that Russia and their DPR/LNR puppets either didn't think this one through (ie: how to support these areas), or they expected Ukraine to still fund these independent "Republics" inside their country?

What's more worrying, is that the same thing is happening with Crimea on a larger scale. Crimea is land-locked to Ukraine, so Russia has to bring in all supplies via boat or plane.
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  #986  
Old 04.11.2014, 23:02
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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In 2004 the Orange Revolution was also a turn towards the West for Ukraine, but Putin didn't do anything, and in the end, there was no real change in Ukraine anyway. I was expecting the "Maidan 2014" to be pretty much the same thing. Except this time Putin went nuts and took Crimea and started a war.


Ukraine has stopped all deliveries, payments, etc. into DPR/LNR.
In order to support these regions, the Aid convoys from Russia will soon become a regular occurrence. Also, and very strangely, the leaders of DPR/LNR suddenly want to "cooperate" with the ("Fascist!") Ukrainian authorities, because they need food, money, etc. () from them.



It seems that Russia and their DPR/LNR puppets either didn't think this one through (ie: how to support these areas), or they expected Ukraine to still fund these independent "Republics" inside their country?

What's more worrying, is that the same thing is happening with Crimea on a larger scale. Crimea is land-locked to Ukraine, so Russia has to bring in all supplies via boat or plane.
About "they expected Ukraine to still fund these independent "Republics" inside their country?" I assume this funding is for Public employees like police and for private people like State pensioners; quite a big sum for Crimea where there many pensioners?

Most of Ukraine's gas comes from Russia while most of Crimea's electricity and water still comes from Ukraine; Ukraine supplies are not regular - they claim because the gas supplies from Russia are also not regular .

It seems tourism from the West has practically stopped in Crimea; one new complexity is tourists now need a Russian visa. Also claimed that there are fewer Russian tourists because they do not use the trains via Ukraine so the travel time is doubled.

Crimea has now aligned with Russia and gays are no longer welcome.

It is claimed Crimeans are no longer allowed to travel abroad even if they have switched to Russian passports although the trains to Ukraine still run
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  #987  
Old 04.11.2014, 23:13
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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It is claimed Crimeans are no longer allowed to travel abroad even if they have switched to Russian passports although the trains to Ukraine still run

ITAR-TASS says that Ukraine doesn't let them enter, which seems not right as they had nary a choice. But that's the Soviet disrespect for fellow people as usual.
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  #988  
Old 04.11.2014, 23:23
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Just seems strange to run the trains if people cannot travel on them?
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  #989  
Old 05.11.2014, 02:06
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

This development is very recent. State owned railroad companies are very inert :-)
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  #990  
Old 05.11.2014, 08:33
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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In 2004 the Orange Revolution was also a turn towards the West for Ukraine, but Putin didn't do anything, and in the end, there was no real change in Ukraine anyway. I was expecting the "Maidan 2014" to be pretty much the same thing. Except this time Putin went nuts and took Crimea and started a war.
...
Maidan 2004 was completely different. There was absolutely no violence, rock concerts have been held on Maidan 2004, nobody was killed, and the president didn't have to flee. But in 2014 much more violent groups have been involved in Maidan protests.

The outcome of the Orange 2004 revolution was the massive re-privatization campaign in favour of some business groups. The new masters stole as much as they could.
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  #991  
Old 05.11.2014, 10:49
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Maidan 2004 was completely different. There was absolutely no violence, rock concerts have been held on Maidan 2004, nobody was killed, and the president didn't have to flee. But in 2014 much more violent groups have been involved in Maidan protests.
True, a little more aggressive and less festive in 2014, but still a protest none-the-less. Keep in mind most of the deaths were caused by a small group of police (Berkut? SBU?) snipers, not caused by the general protesters.

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The outcome of the Orange 2004 revolution was the massive re-privatization campaign in favour of some business groups. The new masters stole as much as they could.
New masters, old masters, no difference. Did you see Yanukovich's $75 million mansion? After the Ukrainian people saw that, he pretty much had to leave the country. Alot of the new Maidan supporters are not just about Ukraine leaning West, but also strongly anti-corruption, people are sick of it. Throwing corrupt politicans in the trash via the "trash bucket challenge" maybe isn't a bad idea
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  #992  
Old 06.11.2014, 01:31
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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There were a few articles recently about continued Russian persecution of the Crimean Tartars, for example, here.

Of course, Erdogan has said earlier in the year that he told Putin "Turkey attaches great importance to the Tatars’ well-being and security"

Exactly what Erdogan can do is not clear. Like Western Europe Erdogan gets a lot of gas from Russia so has that to consider.
Turkey also has a million Syrian refugees so does not have room for a lot of Tartar refugees.

The Western sanctions are having an effect on Russia; the currency is collapsing, inflation is rising and the central bank rate is now 9.5%. O course, this is a slow process - more like water dripping on a stone than causing dramatic changes.

Russia taking Eastern Ukraine would also be a financial drain.

It is reported that Saudi is now selling much more oil to China which means less Chinese demand for Russian oil.
Oil prices are also falling; Brent crude was down to $82 at some time today versus over $100 recently which also puts pressure on Russia.

I believe NATO has technical air superiority versus Russia but not number superiority and if the Russian anti aircraft missiles are as good as claimed then that would be a problem.
Also Russia has very large ground forces so sheer force of numbers would be telling; I do not see USA delivering large ground forces to Europe.

Erdogan does not have much power upon Russia in real terms. BUT his support is essential for Russia on the psychological side. If Turkey starts to give political support to anti-Russian Forces INSIDE/OUTSIDE Russia it would be a disaster for the Russian government
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  #993  
Old 06.11.2014, 16:21
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Russia is getting rid of the "problematic" Tatars one by one, mafia-style. As long as there is no massive Soviet-style round-up and deportations, I don't think Turkey will say/do anything against Russia publicly.

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At least nineteen ethnic Tatars have been abducted or have disappeared in Russian-ruled Crimea, four of them in the past ten days, Tatar and human rights activists say. Russian authorities up to the office of President Vladimir Putin have promised to investigate the disappearances, which began in the first week of Russia's invasion of the peninsula. But they have made no arrests and reported no progress in finding the missing men.

Many of the vanished men were active in Tatar community organizations that have protested Russia’s seizure of Crimea from Ukraine. In some cases, witnesses or video cameras have glimpsed the moment of their disappearance—unidentified men surrounding them on the street or bundling them into a van, family members and human rights groups have said. In two of the cases—one of them hours ago—bodies of the men have been found in remote locations.
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs...ssian-takeover
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  #994  
Old 06.11.2014, 21:18
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Russia is getting rid of the "problematic" Tatars one by one, mafia-style. As long as there is no massive Soviet-style round-up and deportations, I don't think Turkey will say/do anything against Russia publicly.



http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs...ssian-takeover
Why would you say that "Russia" is responsible for the abduction of these Tatars? I didn't find any proof of that in the article... This could be still the "old" Ukrainian-time mafia crimes....
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  #995  
Old 06.11.2014, 21:21
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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True, a little more aggressive and less festive in 2014, but still a protest none-the-less. Keep in mind most of the deaths were caused by a small group of police (Berkut? SBU?) snipers, not caused by the general protesters.
...
A little more aggressive? Maidan 2014 looked like a war zone...
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  #996  
Old 06.11.2014, 21:25
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Why would you say that "Russia" is responsible for the abduction of these Tatars? I didn't find any proof of that in the article... This could be still the "old" Ukrainian-time mafia crimes....
There was the sentence "The disappearances are a dark, silent Russian operation in Moscow's campaign to intimidate the estimated quarter-million ethnic Tatars, who widely support Crimea’s return to Ukraine"?
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  #997  
Old 06.11.2014, 22:24
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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There was the sentence "The disappearances are a dark, silent Russian operation in Moscow's campaign to intimidate the estimated quarter-million ethnic Tatars, who widely support Crimea’s return to Ukraine"?
Sure, there was such a sentence, but where is this coming from? any facts, any sources that support this? Maybe any documents? Anything?
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  #998  
Old 06.11.2014, 22:35
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Sure, there was such a sentence, but where is this coming from? any facts, any sources that support this? Maybe any documents? Anything?
It comes from the same source that said 19 Tartars are missing - or do you need documents to support that as well?
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  #999  
Old 06.11.2014, 23:30
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Sure, there was such a sentence, but where is this coming from? any facts, any sources that support this? Maybe any documents? Anything?
What kind of "documentation" should there be? Does the Russian FSB usually leave stamped papers on the bodies of people they kill and throw in shallow road-side graves? But seriously, 19 Crimean Tatars, who were all pro-Ukrainian, have disappeared in the last months since Russia took over. I don't think you need Columbo to figure this one out.

...or if you still somehow really don't beleive that Russian authorities are involved, how can you explain that 19 people have been killed, and not a single arrest made? Are you saying that Russian police really that inept? As far as I see, they tend to love thorough investigations, with all kinds of "experts" and "officials" involved. So then in this case, you are saying they simply don't care enough about the Tatars to bother with any kind of investigation? What if it was 19 Russian kids that disappeared and were found dead?
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Old 07.11.2014, 01:34
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Apparently they cannot, even in Moscow - 14 random people shot dead since May around Moscow
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