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  #10261  
Old 25.08.2023, 11:23
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I see a phone video of a small jet crashing in Northern Russia. Heavy Impact and fireball.

Today BBC has a photo of Russian troops carrying a stretcher apparently away from the wreckage.

I doubt they would be able to find an intact corpse and that quickly. Theatrics I suppose.
It looks from the video as if the plane was largely intact on descent. Wonder if that was intentional so that those inside were aware of their fate, as part of the punishment. Interesting that someone was on hand to video it.
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  #10262  
Old 25.08.2023, 12:22
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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It looks from the video as if the plane was largely intact on descent. Wonder if that was intentional so that those inside were aware of their fate, as part of the punishment. Interesting that someone was on hand to video it.

If you are referring to this video
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/s...331222663?s=20
then at the rate that thing is falling and tumbling about the sky I don't think anyone inside would be conscious for too long

/macabre mode off...

What is more important is that just at the beginning of the video there is a very distinct smoke cloud that could be indicative of a missile striking the plane (could have been either air-to-air or ground-to-air). This is all speculation OFC, but there's not much else that could explain it
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  #10263  
Old 25.08.2023, 12:26
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

You do have to wonder why the whole senior leadership of Wagner boarded the same plane?


That's an absolute opsec-blunder and a violation of rule one in any business continuity class - and again leaves the door (or the window...) wide open for all kinds of speculations.


In contrast to Germany in 1945, the Russians do have a base in Antarctica



If they really were all on that plane, it was at least a somewhat honorable death (compared to the fate of others who died from poison or some other stupidity).
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  #10264  
Old 25.08.2023, 16:30
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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That's an absolute opsec-blunder and a violation of rule one in any business continuity class

Yes, I think the shareholders are going to be really pissed off about it... Oh, wait...
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  #10265  
Old 25.08.2023, 16:53
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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It looks from the video as if the plane was largely intact on descent. Wonder if that was intentional so that those inside were aware of their fate, as part of the punishment. Interesting that someone was on hand to video it.
Airplanes tend to be symmetric. That thing falling out of the sky is not symmetric. Not sure if a wing, front or tail is missing https://twitter.com/TheInsiderPaper/...95643882868772

It seems they shared the same fate as all people aboard MH17
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  #10266  
Old 25.08.2023, 18:55
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Actually it seems that it was an onboard bomb. Once the pressure bubble is breached at altitude the aircraft will be out of control. If the control cables to the engine were severed they would shut down.

Although it is very early in the ‘investigation’ to me it looks like a bomb, or perhaps, explosives loaded as part of the passengers luggage.
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  #10267  
Old 25.08.2023, 19:08
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Airplanes tend to be symmetric. That thing falling out of the sky is not symmetric. Not sure if a wing, front or tail is missing https://twitter.com/TheInsiderPaper/...95643882868772

It seems they shared the same fate as all people aboard MH17
It was mentioned on the news that it was missing a wing.
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  #10268  
Old 25.08.2023, 19:41
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

The whole Prigozhin story should be a warning for anyone who believes Putin will honour any "peace agreements" or similar. He entered this weird deal with Prigozhin when he was weak and panicked, then recovered and consolidated to then break the deal and take revenge.
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  #10269  
Old 26.08.2023, 18:01
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Putin gave his condolences to the relatives of the people he killed. That's what I call being thougtfull!
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  #10270  
Old 26.08.2023, 19:55
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The whole Prigozhin story should be a warning for anyone who believes Putin will honour any "peace agreements" or similar. He entered this weird deal with Prigozhin when he was weak and panicked, then recovered and consolidated to then break the deal and take revenge.
I ask myself the question.: Why did Prigozhin back down when he had the Kremlin in his sights? I mean he was poised to take it, more than Napoleon was and more than Hitler, perhaps with exception of the Ottomans in the late 1500´s this was the closest the Kremlin has been to taken by a invading force.
Prigozhin was not an idiot, he knew darn well how short his future would be after such a coup, so when he marched on Putin it was all or nothing and yet he folded.
Something is very irritating here.
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  #10271  
Old 26.08.2023, 20:16
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

I suspect he surprised himself he was so successful. He intended, perhaps, only to threaten the Kremlin to get concessions, but then found himself at the gates to Moscow without a plan.

Knowing he couldn’t actually succeed he leaped at a compromise offered by Lukashenko.

I doubt we will ever know.
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  #10272  
Old 26.08.2023, 20:59
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I suspect he surprised himself he was so successful. He intended, perhaps, only to threaten the Kremlin to get concessions, but then found himself at the gates to Moscow without a plan.

Knowing he couldn’t actually succeed he leaped at a compromise offered by Lukashenko.

I doubt we will ever know.
Without a plan "B?" He didn´t strike me as a guy who would leave anything to chance, or one who would lose his nerve thereby wrenching defeat out of the jaws of victory. But I think you are correct.
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  #10273  
Old 27.08.2023, 17:10
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Claims that the Russian Kursk airfield was attacked last night with 16 kamikaze drones targeting 4 Su-30 aircraft and 1 MiG-29.
Among the affected targets are the radars of the S-300 air defence complex and 2 Pantsir air defence systems."

No confirmation yet of damage done.

This video is claimed by some sources to show Ukraine shelling the Russian second line of defence, be warned video shows fleeing Russian soldiers are also being shelled.
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  #10274  
Old 27.08.2023, 17:16
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Without a plan "B?" He didn´t strike me as a guy who would leave anything to chance, or one who would lose his nerve thereby wrenching defeat out of the jaws of victory. But I think you are correct.
He's unlikely to be managing things at any level of detail - 50000+ is a big "company" - and if Putin is anything to go by his senior staff probably only tell him what they think it's safe to.

As with Putin's "quick special operation" in Ukraine, that doesn't work at all well when the shit hits the fan and people start covering their asses.
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  #10275  
Old 27.08.2023, 18:37
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Tragic ending for three Ukrainian pilots including a well-known commander with the call-sign «Juice» who actively campaigned in U.S. and Western Europe for the transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine and for the training of six Ukrainian pilots.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ymyr-zelenskiy

https://news.yahoo.com/3-ukrainian-p...063406996.html
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  #10276  
Old 27.08.2023, 22:02
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Claims that the Russian Kursk airfield was attacked last night with 16 kamikaze drones targeting 4 Su-30 aircraft and 1 MiG-29.
Among the affected targets are the radars of the S-300 air defence complex and 2 Pantsir air defence systems."

No confirmation yet of damage done.

This video is claimed by some sources to show Ukraine shelling the Russian second line of defence, be warned video shows fleeing Russian soldiers are also being shelled.
Russians claim that Ukraine deployed Australian-made Sypaq drones, made of cardboard and rubber, and electrically powered. Their construction makes them de facto undetectable for Russian radars.
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  #10277  
Old 28.08.2023, 10:54
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I ask myself the question.: Why did Prigozhin back down when he had the Kremlin in his sights? I mean he was poised to take it, more than Napoleon was and more than Hitler, perhaps with exception of the Ottomans in the late 1500´s this was the closest the Kremlin has been to taken by a invading force.
Prigozhin was not an idiot, he knew darn well how short his future would be after such a coup, so when he marched on Putin it was all or nothing and yet he folded.
Something is very irritating here.
Russia's secret services are deeply intermeshed with the official authorities in Russia and wield the actual power. Wether Prigozhin's mutiny was orchestrated or he schemed it with some powerful Russians independently, maybe we'll eventually learn about it, but the coup had 0 chance if the secret services were against it.
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  #10278  
Old 28.08.2023, 11:23
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I suspect he surprised himself he was so successful. He intended, perhaps, only to threaten the Kremlin to get concessions, but then found himself at the gates to Moscow without a plan.

Knowing he couldn’t actually succeed he leaped at a compromise offered by Lukashenko.

I doubt we will ever know.
Priggo actually made Putin flinch, he had to pay to price of Putin's shame by taking an aluminium shower. The two-month delay was the minimum for plausible deniability from the Kremlin.
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  #10279  
Old 28.08.2023, 13:25
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

No doubt the official report will blame shortage of aircraft parts due to sanctions. See! It’s the west’s fault.
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  #10280  
Old 28.08.2023, 13:35
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

I don't think he kid himself for a minute. He knew he was a dead man when he set his men in motion.

He saw a lot of problems with the way the army was lead and wanted to point the public to it.

Whether it was successful - we will not know immediately.

Secret services tend to have a life of their own - not only in dictatorships.
So, it's entirely possible he had some support in the apparatus. Surely, Putins former comrades are sometimes thinking about the time, when Uncle Vlad will no longer be around.

The last time this happened in such a shape was maybe when Stalin died and Beria thought he could succeed him.

This time, they want to play it out smarter ;-)
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