Status of Russian navy, probably I need to buy a new red ink pen.



The bulk grain carrier Puma sails under the flag of the Cayman Islands and left the port of Odesa this evening, I wish it a safe voyage.
You can track it here or here.

The representative of the Ukraine Main Intelligence Directorate Yusov told reporters that the head of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov illnesses worsened, which led to him being in a coma. Hopefully, he has avoided tea drinking.

Like Yevgeny Prigozhin he has a private aircraft but has not used it for a while.

Claimed to be the Russian missile ship Samum under tow after being damaged by a Ukraine naval drone yesterday.



Edit: I wonder what they plan while the dry docks in Sevastopol are not available.

Russia is said to be interested in North Korea's missile train launching platform during discussions with Kim Jung Un in Vladivostok.




Hopefully Britain's Defence Secretary will respond by running their own missile trains on the Nene Valley Railway again, if this happens.

I wonder what gauge the missile trains use.

South Korea and China use standard 1,435 mm gauge tracks, but Russia uses a gauge of 1,520 mm.
The North Korean systems use a range of gauge widths, but 87 percent of its tracks are 1,435 mm.

Not that much of a big deal. They "simply" lift the carriage and change the bogies. Or use variable gauge bogies like the Swiss do.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDkG...eInternational

Bogie changes on passenger cars is usually more complex than on freight cars. I wouldn't be suprised if Kim's train has 6-wheel bogies to support the weight of the armour. He'd probably have to had the broad-gauge bogies pre-delivered to the Russian border.

China and Russia are now linked by standard 1435mm gauge, so maybe Kim took the detour.

On the topic of variable gauge: The Swiss seem to market there new variable gauge passenger train like a word first, even though the Spanish pioneered it 50 years ago. (Most of the Iberian peninsula is broad guage). The Swiss system has probably the widest variance, going from 1435mm to 1000mm.

Of course there are other considerations: loading gauge (allowable cross-section dimensions), coupling, brake hose connections and voltage (if using electric locomotives).

__________________
So sayeth the 'Speed
* I do look like my avatar

Originally the US said Ukraine could not use US supplied weapons outside Ukranine but now it is claimed "The way Ukrainians will use ATACMS is their business – US Secretary of State Blinken"

A couple of photos of the "lightly damaged" Russian submarine Rostov-on-Don.

That'll buff out...

Regarding these photos, a Youtube commentator on this conflict made a hilarious comment:

Presumably, it was the Storm Shadow anti-ship version so the small hole in the side was due to the penetrating charge, and the hole in the top was caused by the subsequent huge explosion inside the sub, pity there are no inside photos.

While that may appear to be repairable the damage to the pressure envelope is so severe it will never dive again.

"Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is encouraging U.S. allies to “dig deep” and provide more air defense systems for Ukraine, saying that the munitions could be critical to stop Russian missile barrages.

“Air defense is saving lives,” Austin said at a meeting of NATO and allied military leaders in Germany. “So I urge this group to continue to dig deep on ground-based air defense for Ukraine. We must continue to push hard to provide Ukraine with air-defense systems and interceptors.”"

What a hypocrite

"How many Patriot missiles does the US have?

After transferring one battalion to Ukraine, the U.S. Army has 15 Patriot battalions.
A 2018 International Institute for Strategic Studies report found those pre-transfer battalions operated 50 batteries, which have more than 1,200 missile interceptors"

Some widely denied claims today that Ukraine is extending its anti-Russia activities by drone bombing Wagner groups in Sudan.

So absurd that it might be true.

So Ukrainian grain gets stuck and cannot be exported through the Black Sea. Excess grain gets into Eastern Europe and depressed prices there. Visegrad throws a tantrum and bans Ukrainian imports. Ukraine throws a tantrum. Poland announces stop of weapons supply to Ukraine. Putin laughs.

Is it so difficult to arrange for a mere transit of Ukrainian grain through Eastern Europe to world markets? I know, not exactly free market as such, but this must be solvable. Or is it just elections coming up in f---ing Visegrad?

When was the past time you heard about Poland giving weapon to Ukraine? Ukraine gets weapon from other sources, so nothing changes in this matter.

I was in Hungary a few weeks ago and got taking to some locals. According to them what is happening is a little more complex. The incoming grain is supposed to be in transit beyond the EU, but some third-parties are buying up the contracts and then diverting the produce to the local markets. The people we discussed this with suspected either organised crime or Russian Ogliarchs.

Apparently some Hungarian farmers are not harvesting this year as they can’t sell their products.

I don't know, it is something but not that much. I am more concerned about the idiotic signal than the actual supply. The more cracks in the alliance, the more likely the Russians will aim to drag this out forever and the voices for some "peace deal" will get stronger.

So Orban cannot get his act together. Or does not want to.

Hungary has always been akin to the Middle East in developing elaborately stupid conspiracy theories.

The largest market for Ukrainian grain is China. With Russia pulling out from the Black Sea deal, reaching the Bosphorous became much more risky and costly (insurance increased and one ship has already had an explosion onboard...engine failure?). Thus, the Ukrainians didn't really have the management time to think this through and assumed that Eastern Europe will take the additional load. Virtually all these countries are wheat exporters, so wheat was always going to be extremely problematic (the major reason for the ban). The situation with sunflower is slightly more complicated as most crushers and refineries have to use imported grain, but it all got muddled up in the wheat discussion. To complicate things further, Poland has parliamentary elections, Bulgaria has local elections, both in October. Protests by "farmers" were a godsend to the opposition parties and the ruling parties had to make concessions.

This could have been very easily avoided with a 10 min thinking and 5 min phone-call. Hey, Poland, Bulgaria we have excess grain, can we ship to your ports via the coastline and then you help us ship through the Bosphorous.

Considering that when the Soviet Union broke up all these countries had the same GDP per capita you can understand why they do not want to turn back to the arms of Mother Russia.



Cumulative GDP per capita growth, former Soviet Union countries, 1992-2021, constant prices, PPP, 2017 international dollars (%, 1992 = 100%). Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database, October 2022; author's calculations.