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  #1121  
Old 29.01.2015, 11:30
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Russia condemns other countries for planning to supply arms to E.Ukraine as Russian tank columns 3km long stream over the non-existant Russia/Ukraine border?

Quote:
"We urge Bosnia and Herzegovina’s authorities to give up plans to supply Kiev with ammunition. Such plans contradict the international norms and commitments in the framework of the OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) and in particular, as part of the Forum for Security Cooperation," Lukashevich said.
http://itar-tass.com/en/russia/774074
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  #1122  
Old 02.02.2015, 10:25
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Interesting, it looks like those in the US government who have been blocking military support to Ukraine (ie: Obama and Rice) are now having a rethink after Russian-backed fighters have got a large infusion of heavy weapons from Russia and are starting an offensive that Ukrainian forces may not be able to contain.

Seems like although sanctions have played a role in hurting the Russian economy and isolating Putin, it's becoming clear it has zero effect on Putin's military objectives, and something needs to change.

Report, very sober and lucid assessment: http://www.thechicagocouncil.org/sit...2015_FINAL.pdf


Quote:
President Obama has made no decisions on providing such lethal assistance. But after a series of striking reversals that Ukraine’s forces have suffered in recent weeks, the Obama administration is taking a fresh look at the question of military aid.

In recent months, Susan E. Rice, Mr. Obama’s national security adviser, has resisted proposals to provide lethal assistance, several officials said. But one official who is familiar with her views insisted that Ms. Rice was now prepared to reconsider the issue.

The assessment of some senior Western officials is that the Kremlin’s goal is to replace the Minsk agreement with an accord that would be more favorable to the Kremlin’s interests and would leave the separatists with a more economically viable enclave.

Russian casualties remain an unusually delicate political issue for Mr. Putin, who has denied that Russian troops have been ordered to fight in Ukraine.
The report by Ms. Flournoy and the other former officials argues that the United States and its allies should capitalize on this fact to dissuade the Russians and the separatists from expanding their offensive.


“One of the best ways to deter Russia from supporting the rebels in taking more territory and stepping up the conflict is to increase the cost that the Russians or their surrogates would incur,” Ms. Flournoy said in an interview.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/02/wo...=tw-share&_r=1
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  #1123  
Old 02.02.2015, 15:43
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

That might trigger a full scale Russia invasion. I may have to cancel my vacation in South-East Poland this summer...
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  #1124  
Old 02.02.2015, 20:48
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

East Ukraine rebel leader, Alexander Zakharchenko, orders military draft.

Seems like a great opportunity to increase the probability of dying on the front line from enemy action instead of the relatively lower risk of dying in your own home.
I am not sure how committed and interested the local people are in dying to support the Russian and East Ukraine leaders political objectives of increasing the geographic area under rebel control.
Somehow reminds me of the grim first world war statistics; something like ten thousand lives for every meter gained.

If the newly armed "common soldiers" had any sense they would shoot their officers and demand a peaceful settlement based on the current "lines of control" instead of pointlessly dying to gain a few more meters.

Surprising the rebel leaders have not learnt from Napoleon and Hitler about the dangers of launching an assault in the Russian winter; of course the distances today are much shorter.
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  #1125  
Old 02.02.2015, 23:41
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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That might trigger a full scale Russia invasion. I may have to cancel my vacation in South-East Poland this summer...
Most polls in Russia show Russians don't favor a full-on war with Ukraine. And the economy is already in a dire situation. Altho Putin has been acting emotionally/irrationally, so anything is possible.

...but what options does the EU/US have left? Sanctions clearly aren't influencing Putin's policy of aggression in Ukraine. It's either accept Putin's aggression towards his (and the EU's) neighbors, or else stand up to him militarily and see who blinks first. Neither option is good.

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Surprising the rebel leaders have not learnt from Napoleon and Hitler about the dangers of launching an assault in the Russian winter; of course the distances today are much shorter.
Some parallels with Finland's "Winter War" as well...

...however, since nobody believes it's even possible for the DNR to find that many fit men in their territories, it's assumed it will be a cover for Russia to send in more regular troops.
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  #1126  
Old 04.02.2015, 19:47
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

A perspective from Casey research today.

"The Euro and the Ukraine crises are converging."

Link:
http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/gre...e-vs.-the-west
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  #1127  
Old 05.02.2015, 00:49
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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A perspective from Casey research today.

"The Euro and the Ukraine crises are converging."

Link:
http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/gre...e-vs.-the-west
Interesting article but I doubt the European Central Bank will be diverted from their concentration on simply the financial issues and will not play games.

The European Central Bank just cranked up the pressure on Greece’s new anti-austerity government as it attempts to renegotiate the terms of its bailout, telling Athens that Greek banks can no longer use the country’s sovereign debt as collateral for ECB-provided liquidity.

It’s not a welcome development. Greek banks have suffered significant deposit withdrawals before and after the January election that brought the government, led by Syriza’s Alexis Tsipras, to power.

Quote “This news will likely scare depositors and result in further bank runs"
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  #1128  
Old 06.02.2015, 09:23
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Merkel and Hollande are going to meet Putin in Russia today to present some kind of last-ditch peace plan ...probably aiming for some kind of "frozen conflict" to contain it. With a recent huge influx of tanks and heavy weaponry into E.Ukraine from Russia, and the US threatening to send defensive arms to Ukraine soon, these talks are pretty important. I'm sure Putin will say he's for peace and the Russia is not involved, blah,blah,blah, so whatever plan Merkel presents needs to be gauged by actions, not words. Else US anti-tank rockets will soon be destroying Russian tanks in Ukraine ...or well, officially NOT Russian tanks, since Russia denies sending any

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...ne-proposal-us
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  #1129  
Old 06.02.2015, 09:44
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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. . . With a recent huge influx of tanks and heavy weaponry into E.Ukraine from Russia . . .
This is not in the quoted article. Russia apparently denies it. Can you link to a source for this ?
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  #1130  
Old 06.02.2015, 10:51
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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This is not in the quoted article. Russia apparently denies it. Can you link to a source for this ?
There's been many reports of increased troop and armament movement from Russia into Donetsk the last few weeks, since the "DNR" took the airport and announced an offensive to push their territory out to the borders of Donetsk/Lugansk oblasts.

Quote:
Breedlove said he could not confirm Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko's estimate of 9,000 Russian troops in eastern Ukraine.


"What we do see is that the Russian-backed forces have renewed capability now to bring pressure on the Ukrainian forces and have in several places moved the line of contact to the west and this is concerning," he said.


"We are beginning to see the (heat) signatures of air defense systems and electronic warfare systems that have accompanied past Russian troop movements into Ukraine," he said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0KV1EP20150122

Quote:
Russia is deploying military personnel, heavy weapons and equipment in eastern Ukraine as Kiev fears the conflict in Donbass could take a turn for the worse.


Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk has said Moscow is advancing its presence in the conflict-ravaged region penetrating the border amid the fierce fighting.


Ukraine's state-run media quoted Yatsenyuk as saying: "I have just spoken with the national defence and security council secretary. Ukrainian military intelligence confirms the fact military personnel and equipment have been transferred from Russia to Ukraine."


"Tanks, GRAD multiple rocket systems, BUK and SMERCH systems, radio electronic intelligence systems are not sold at local Donetsk street markets. Only the Russian army and defence ministry have them."
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/russia-amas...rsions-1484174



Of course Russia denies everything, however alot of tanks are seen inside Ukraine being used by the Russian-backed forces that aren't in the inventory of Ukraine's military, so where are they coming from? The tiny sliver of the DNR/LNR seems to have more tanks than the entire Ukraine military (!)

Quote:
On 28 January, on the outskirts of Khartsyzk (25km east of Donetsk, “DPR”-controlled) alongside road H21 the SMM observed a parked column of five T-72 tanks facing east, and immediately after, another column of four T-72 tanks moving east on the same road
http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/137746

Quote:
T-72BM - a Russian-made modification of a well known Soviet tank. This version of the tank, they said, is not known to have been exported.


"It is operated by the Russian Army in large numbers, but crucially it is not known to have been exported or operated outside of Russia," Joseph Dempsey, a military analyst for the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, wrote in late August when a tank like that was discovered on grainy footage of rebel convoy.


"The presence of this variant in Ukraine therefore strongly supports the contention that Russia is supplying arms to separatist forces," Dempsey said.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28961080
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  #1131  
Old 06.02.2015, 10:52
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

It got quieter on the front line since a day of two because the Russian supply chain hasn't delivered enough munition.

The rumors say that the "draft" in the "rebel" territories, of 100k men, might be actually filled with the help of amnesty in Russia.
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  #1132  
Old 06.02.2015, 14:54
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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It got quieter on the front line since a day of two because the Russian supply chain hasn't delivered enough munition.

The rumors say that the "draft" in the "rebel" territories, of 100k men, might be actually filled with the help of amnesty in Russia.
A truce was also temporarily declared to let civilians flee. Fighting has also been very intense, with heavy losses on both sides. The RUssians have not yet taken their objective of Debaltseve, so maybe the lull in fighting right now is time for regrouping.

Quote:
Ukraine Interior Ministry official Vyacheslav Abroskin told AFP news agency that the cease-fire was agreed to allow besieged civilians to be evacuated. Rebels said the truce would last from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. local time on February 6, and that buses carrying civilians had already left Debaltseve.
Earlier, the Reuters news agency reported that dozens of empty buses escorted by monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) were heading toward the town.
Witnesses said there was no firing between government forces and separatists as the convoys moved toward Debaltseve.
Obama is not keen on sending weapons to Ukraine, but alot of the US Congress and public is for it. EU thinks it's a bluff to make Putin de-escalate, but who knows...

Quote:
American threats to arm Ukraine are a "bluff" aimed at making Russia blink as the crisis in east Ukraine deepens, according to senior EU diplomats.


“The sense is that the situation is radically deteriorating, both militarily and economically. Everyone is alarmed at intelligence showing the sheer extent of Russian troop involvement and the arming of rebels,” said a senior European diplomat.



Mrs Merkel will report back to EU leaders at a Brussels summit on Thursday and is expected, unless there is a new peace plan, to propose new economic sanctions against Russia.



Mr Putin is demanding the creation of new territory controlled by separatists on the model of so called “frozen conflict zones” such as Abkhazia or Transnistria, breakaway provinces of Georgia and Moldova that are under Russian military protection.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...diplomats.html
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  #1133  
Old 06.02.2015, 16:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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It got quieter on the front line since a day of two because the Russian supply chain hasn't delivered enough munition.....
This is not really true -- it didn't get any quieter. Up to 18000 Ukrainian troops are surrounded at the moment in Debaltsevo as the rebels are advancing further.. This could be the reason why Merkel and Hollande are on the way to Putin with the unscheduled visit.

I think the result of the talks will be that Merkel and Hollande will announce that they are ready to provide weapons to Ukraine... This is what they are coming for -- to get a political possibility to arm Ukraine. The US has already announced that they will be arming Kiev.
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  #1134  
Old 06.02.2015, 16:35
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

It's not really very smart to run around expecting a world war. If you paid any attention to what the sort of things that are actually going on. You'd see there is a huge decline in violence in the planet. Opposed to what "the media" is saying.

Before you start proclaiming world war 3, I'd suggest you get a better global picture of the planet.
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  #1135  
Old 06.02.2015, 16:40
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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This is not really true -- it didn't get any quieter. Up to 18000 Ukrainian troops are surrounded at the moment in Debaltsevo as the rebels are advancing further.. This could be the reason why Merkel and Hollande are on the way to Putin with the unscheduled visit.

I think the result of the talks will be that Merkel and Hollande will announce that they are ready to provide weapons to Ukraine... This is what they are coming for -- to get a political possibility to arm Ukraine. The US has already announced that they will be arming Kiev.
Not sure that Hollande is ready to provide weapons to the Ukraine; he is still looking to deliver his warships to Russia and to collect the billions owing.
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  #1136  
Old 06.02.2015, 17:19
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Depressing article in the Guardian here about life today in a town in East Ukraine.

Does not hold out much hope for the future
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  #1137  
Old 06.02.2015, 22:03
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Up to 18000 Ukrainian troops are surrounded at the moment in Debaltsevo as the rebels are advancing further.. This could be the reason why Merkel and Hollande are on the way to Putin with the unscheduled visit.
Indeed, the "rebels" have got a large infusion of troops and weapons from Russia and are now emboldened to drive further into Ukraine, as the Ukrainian army doesn't have enough tanks/troops to stop them. I suppose Merkel and Hollande have gone to Moscow to tell Putin what the EU response will be if that happens and try to dissuade him from continuing his path.


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I think the result of the talks will be that Merkel and Hollande will announce that they are ready to provide weapons to Ukraine... This is what they are coming for -- to get a political possibility to arm Ukraine. The US has already announced that they will be arming Kiev.
LOL, Germany and France will be the LAST countries to arm Ukraine. The US and Poland will probably be the first, but even they are slow to do it.

Quote:
French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told reporters that Paris has "no intention of delivering weapons at this stage to Ukraine." His comments echoed the long-standing German position, which Chancellor Angela Merkel reiterated during a visit to Budapest on Monday. "Germany will not support Ukraine with weapons," Merkel told reporters.
http://www.dw.de/proposed-us-weapons...ion/a-18235091

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The US has already announced that they will be arming Kiev.
Link please? AFAIK, there won't be any announcement either way until after Merkel visits Washington next week. And even then it's still a 50/50 chance if the US sends any weapons or not. Maybe they'll just send more blankets.
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  #1138  
Old 06.02.2015, 22:31
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

A spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin says talks with Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande on a peace proposal for Ukraine have ended.

Dmitry Peskov said early Saturday that the next step in the process would be a telephone call between Putin, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and the German and French leaders on Sunday.

No details of what was discussed in the Kremlin talks were given and no result announced.
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  #1139  
Old 06.02.2015, 23:04
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World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

[QUOTE=esto;2336019Germany and France will be the LAST countries to arm Ukraine. The US and Poland will probably be the first, but even they are slow to do it.
[/QUOTE]


Poland won't.
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  #1140  
Old 07.02.2015, 10:35
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Indeed, the "rebels" have got a large infusion of troops and weapons from Russia and are now emboldened to drive further into Ukraine, as the Ukrainian army doesn't have enough tanks/troops to stop them. I suppose Merkel and Hollande have gone to Moscow to tell Putin what the EU response will be if that happens and try to dissuade him from continuing his path.



LOL, Germany and France will be the LAST countries to arm Ukraine. The US and Poland will probably be the first, but even they are slow to do it.


http://www.dw.de/proposed-us-weapons...ion/a-18235091


Link please? AFAIK, there won't be any announcement either way until after Merkel visits Washington next week. And even then it's still a 50/50 chance if the US sends any weapons or not. Maybe they'll just send more blankets.
You are right, US didn't announce yet that it will arm Ukraine.. I thought this was decided already and they do send there some of US special heavy, mine resistant armored vehicles that have been used in Afghanistan and Iraq.

What they did announce recently is that by spring they will deploy unspecified numbers of US military “trainers” to Ukraine. I believe the announcement about supplying weapons will follow soon.
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