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  #1141  
Old 07.02.2015, 11:16
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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You are right, US didn't announce yet that it will arm Ukraine.. I thought this was decided already and they do send there some of US special heavy, mine resistant armored vehicles that have been used in Afghanistan and Iraq.

What they did announce recently is that by spring they will deploy unspecified numbers of US military “trainers” to Ukraine. I believe the announcement about supplying weapons will follow soon.
I hope not about supply of weapons, it would lead to a war that Russia would win. And it would not be limited to Ukraine
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  #1142  
Old 07.02.2015, 12:04
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I hope not about supply of weapons, it would lead to a war that Russia would win. And it would not be limited to Ukraine
On the countrary, an open war would impose NATO in Ukraine without discussions under a round of applause from all over the world. Russia is the only country that as nothing to win from an open war. The pro-nato say that it explains their not-open war, the Russians say it explains nato's not-open war in every eastern country incl. Georgia since the fall of the wall. To me, everybody is wrong. Like in a long list of conflicts in the past incl. Libya, Somalia, Irak, Afghanistan and a few more.

To the internet research pros: do you find somewhere the stats of labour costs comparison? I hear that it is now lower in Ukraine than in China for better educated work force. I'd like to know if this is a legend. If yes, it is very relevent to this thread. If not, it enightens propaganda techniques. Genuine interest. Thanks.
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  #1143  
Old 07.02.2015, 12:49
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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.....
To the internet research pros: do you find somewhere the stats of labour costs comparison? I hear that it is now lower in Ukraine than in China for better educated work force. I'd like to know if this is a legend. If yes, it is very relevent to this thread. If not, it enightens propaganda techniques. Genuine interest. Thanks.
I have no stats on this but just a small example -- I work for a multinational company, and our department is using many contractors for the kind of work which requires certain level of education. These contractors come mostly from Europe delivering high quality but expensive, and from India with low cost. But recently they have hired a firm in Ukraine. The cost is low but the quality is surprisingly high. I have no idea if the Ukrainian contractors are more expensive than the Chinese but from what I know they cost the same as in India for the same kind of work, only they are really better -- the European quality I would say.
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  #1144  
Old 07.02.2015, 12:58
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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On the countrary, an open war would impose NATO in Ukraine without discussions under a round of applause from all over the world. Russia is the only country that as nothing to win from an open war. The pro-nato say that it explains their not-open war, the Russians say it explains nato's not-open war in every eastern country incl. Georgia since the fall of the wall. To me, everybody is wrong. Like in a long list of conflicts in the past incl. Libya, Somalia, Irak, Afghanistan and a few more.
...
I agree that Russia has been provoked to enter the open war in Ukraine for a year now, and this is exactly what "all over the world" want Russia to do.
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  #1145  
Old 07.02.2015, 14:36
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

http://www.springer.com/cda/content/...039-p174239562
german statistics 2010 there.
I've heard this from Russian friendly Germans, so I was being careful. Their theory is that the expension of Nato towards east is not only a geo-strategic move for a totally unipolar world order, but also a necessity for western industry. The EU, Germany first in the line, and the US need to lower their dependency towards China in the industry and manufacture business, in order to keep the profit margins increasing. The first wave was delocalization to the east in the nineties, second wave was delocalization to China and they now need a third one, targetting Ukraine, kaukasus, Old-Indochina. These are the three lowest work cost regions in the world... This theory is tempting to explain why the destruction of the old industry in the east serves western interest, n cause they will lateron enter the place and rebuild on their own terms and free of Russian-Soviet heritage. A paradise for entrepreneurs, no wonder the west actively targetted a proeastern corrupted olygarchy to replace it with a prowestern corrupted olygarchy in Ukraine. The corruption is a necessity to BOTH Russian and western businessmen.
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  #1146  
Old 07.02.2015, 14:51
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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On the countrary, an open war would impose NATO in Ukraine without discussions under a round of applause from all over the world. Russia is the only country that as nothing to win from an open war. The pro-nato say that it explains their not-open war, the Russians say it explains nato's not-open war in every eastern country incl. Georgia since the fall of the wall. To me, everybody is wrong. Like in a long list of conflicts in the past incl. Libya, Somalia, Irak, Afghanistan and a few more.
The West also has nothing to win from an open war. Or the current not-open war. Good relations with Russia is the best option for everyone. If you want to get to the root of the issue, you have to ask why Russia started it's aggressions in Crimea/Donbass in the first place? And when and where will it finally stop? Putin is in the drivers seat, he's pouring weapons and fighters into the Donbass while the West stands by and asks him nicely to stop. The running "joke" is that the EU will lift sanctions when Russia stops bombing Kiev.

In other news, the talks last night seemed to have failed, as no positions on either side seemed to have changed. So Russians will most certainly attack further into Ukraine. Which will further lead to a Cold War 2, or worse.

The refugee situation around Delbatseve looks really bad. And to make it worse, today the "DPR" decided to cancel the evacuation of civilians due to "security problems"? Isn't a WAR a security problem?

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MOSCOW, February 7. /TASS/. Evacuation from Debaltsevo is cancelled on Saturday for security reasons, representative of the defence ministry at the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) Eduard Basurin said.

"No evacuation today, we fear about the civilians and organisers of evacuation," he said. "If they can, people are trying to go away themselves, and the militia are assisting them."
http://itar-tass.com/en/world/776075

...ahh, probably the real reason the "DPR" cancelled todays planned evacuation:
Quote:
Units of Ukraine's Ministry of Internal Affairs and the State Emergency Service evacuated some 600 inhabitants of the besieged town of Debaltseve to areas under Ukrainian control. Only 30 individuals chose to go to Russian occupied areas despite the availability of 25 large buses sent by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, which remained empty

Last edited by esto; 07.02.2015 at 15:03.
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  #1147  
Old 07.02.2015, 14:59
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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http://www.springer.com/cda/content/...039-p174239562
german statistics 2010 there.
I've heard this from Russian friendly Germans, so I was being careful. Their theory is that the expension of Nato towards east is not only a geo-strategic move for a totally unipolar world order, but also a necessity for western industry. The EU, Germany first in the line, and the US need to lower their dependency towards China in the industry and manufacture business, in order to keep the profit margins increasing. The first wave was delocalization to the east in the nineties, second wave was delocalization to China and they now need a third one, targetting Ukraine, kaukasus, Old-Indochina. These are the three lowest work cost regions in the world... This theory is tempting to explain why the destruction of the old industry in the east serves western interest, n cause they will lateron enter the place and rebuild on their own terms and free of Russian-Soviet heritage. A paradise for entrepreneurs, no wonder the west actively targetted a proeastern corrupted olygarchy to replace it with a prowestern corrupted olygarchy in Ukraine. The corruption is a necessity to BOTH Russian and western businessmen.
Sorry, but that's just pure rubbish. There's plenty of good, cheap labor to be had from Poland, former Yugoslavia, Baltics, etc. I've been to Ukraine many times, trust me when I say it's not exactly a hotbed of geniuses

On the contrary, a confrontation with Russia is BAD for business, as Russia is a pretty large market for sales. If Apple, BMW, etc. were to lose that market, they would suffer losses. In fact alot of these business already are losing business due to the current situation.
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  #1148  
Old 07.02.2015, 15:05
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Sorry, but that's just pure rubbish. There's plenty of good, cheap labor to be had from Poland, former Yugoslavia, Baltics, etc. I've been to Ukraine many times, trust me when I say it's not exactly a hotbed of geniuses

On the contrary, a confrontation with Russia is BAD for business, as Russia is a pretty large market for sales. If Apple, BMW, etc. were to lose that market, they would suffer losses. In fact alot of these business already are losing business due to the current situation.
You don't like numbers, neither do I. Fine. But Poland is not that cheap anymore, even I know that. Love them anyway, don't worry.
I don't expect you to find a russian friendly german theory anything else than rubbish either, but we know your beliefs. What we don't know are your arguments.
If you don't know the difference between the prepositions during and after, there is no point getting upset at those poor german friends of mine. The don't talk about war economy either.
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  #1149  
Old 07.02.2015, 15:12
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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You don't like numbers, neither do I. Fine. But Poland is not that cheap anymore, even I know that. Love them anyway, don't worry.
I don't expect you to find a russian friendly german theory anything else than rubbish either, but we know your beliefs. What we don't know are your arguments.
If you don't know the difference between the prepositions during and after, there is no point getting upset at those poor german friends of mine. The don't talk about war economy either.
Sorry, but I don't quite follow you Polish labor IS cheap, and I have nothing against the numbers in the PDF you linked. Ukraine is cheaper at 1.8, but Bulgaria 2.4, Romania 3.4, Poland 6, and a bunch of other EU countries are in that at very cheap rates. There is no logical argument to say that the EU needs Ukraine as a source of cheap labor, much less willing to risk a Cold War over it. The EU has cheap labor already in abundance, comparing to "Western" rates that are in the 20's and 30's.
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  #1150  
Old 07.02.2015, 15:36
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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http://www.springer.com/cda/content/...039-p174239562
german statistics 2010 there.
I've heard this from Russian friendly Germans, so I was being careful. Their theory is that the expension of Nato towards east is not only a geo-strategic move for a totally unipolar world order, but also a necessity for western industry. The EU, Germany first in the line, and the US need to lower their dependency towards China in the industry and manufacture business, in order to keep the profit margins increasing. The first wave was delocalization to the east in the nineties, second wave was delocalization to China and they now need a third one, targetting Ukraine, kaukasus, Old-Indochina. These are the three lowest work cost regions in the world... This theory is tempting to explain why the destruction of the old industry in the east serves western interest, n cause they will lateron enter the place and rebuild on their own terms and free of Russian-Soviet heritage. A paradise for entrepreneurs, no wonder the west actively targetted a proeastern corrupted olygarchy to replace it with a prowestern corrupted olygarchy in Ukraine. The corruption is a necessity to BOTH Russian and western businessmen.
The population of Ukraine is 45 million versus ca. 1.4 billion in China so I do not see Ukraine as a replacement for China; not even if they start working afternoons
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Old 07.02.2015, 15:36
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The EU has cheap labor already.
We agree on that. The question is to what extend does cheapER than CHINA labour get things rolling or not.
I am aware of the fact that nothing will keep you from your beliefs. But other readers might want to think for themselves and I am just adding an argument for them.

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I do not see Ukraine as a replacement for China)
You are the only one who understood "replacement" in my message. Fact is that re-relocation from China to Vietnam, Malaisia and Cambodja is already happening. Reducing dependency is not a very complex concept.

Last edited by Faltrad; 07.02.2015 at 15:50.
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  #1152  
Old 07.02.2015, 16:08
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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We agree on that. The question is to what extend does cheapER than CHINA labour get things rolling or not.
I am aware of the fact that nothing will keep you from your beliefs. But other readers might want to think for themselves and I am just adding an argument for them.


You are the only one who understood "replacement" in my message. Fact is that re-relocation from China to Vietnam, Malaisia and Cambodja is already happening. Reducing dependency is not a very complex concept.
Well if you add the total population of all 4 countries together then you are only equal to ca. 10% of the population of China so you will not see a worthwhile reduction of dependency.
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  #1153  
Old 07.02.2015, 16:13
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Well if you add the total population of all 4 countries together then you are only equal to ca. 10% of the population of China so you will not see a worthwhile reduction of dependency.
I don't mind this opinion, but there are other opinions out there and the readers of this thread deserve this argument like any other. The very small eastern countries are already an alternative to China on some industry, so I don't see why Ukraine can't be even more of a licrarive alternative to all other countries, all be it at a realistic scale, China oncluded but not exclusively.
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  #1154  
Old 07.02.2015, 16:24
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

The West was transferring know-how and capital to China like there is no tomorrow, and now tomorrow is coming and you suggest business starts thinking in a geo-strategic criteria? Ultra-low-cost labor gold-rush has ended in China and is moving to other impoverished countries in that region. They have not yet workers rights, human rights, redistribution and taxes for retirement, education, health care. Better than slaves, disposable labour.
Social dynamics are different in Eastern Europe, I don't think they're that likely to be squeezable for prolonged time to work for a half-a-unit a day.
However, having a manufacturing base that is under ones sphere of influence, same about fossil fuels etc is a strong strategic asset and nobody can cut you off from it by deploying a few subs here and there. If Germany decided to get off the leash, that would be invaluable.
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Old 07.02.2015, 16:24
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The very small eastern countries are already an alternative to China on some industry, so I don't see why Ukraine can't be even more of a licrarive alternative to all other countries, all be it at a realistic scale, China oncluded but not exclusively.
Unemployment rate in Bulgaria, Poland and others is between 10-15%, Greece is over 30%. It makes no sense to say the EU needs MORE cheap labor when they aren't even fully utilizing the cheap labor that they already have.
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  #1156  
Old 07.02.2015, 16:30
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I don't mind this opinion, but there are other opinions out there and the readers of this thread deserve this argument like any other. The very small eastern countries are already an alternative to China on some industry, so I don't see why Ukraine can't be even more of a licrarive alternative to all other countries, all be it at a realistic scale, China oncluded but not exclusively.
I do not see it as an alternative or reduced dependency but simply cost cutting.

I once worked for a company that outsourced some IT work to India.
The Indians outsourced some of that work to China, China in turn outsourced to Vietnam.
At the end the quality of service was poorer and it was a nightmare trying to change any services.

The same company outsourced some IT work to East Europe, mainly Poland. Then later they changed the outsource to India but still retained an (unplanned) group in Poland to handle complex issues and changes.

Forgot to say that Eastern Europe being (more or less) in the same time zone is a benefit you do not value until you lose it.
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  #1157  
Old 07.02.2015, 16:33
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I do not see it as an alternative or reduced dependency but simply cost cutting.
OK, cost curting means increasing profits, which is in my original message. I take the blame for unclear word choice.
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Old 07.02.2015, 16:40
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

There is more to the cost than just hourly wage. To exploit it long term on large scale the state must be supporting such a model, e.g. kill the trade union activists. You need some assurance that your business won't be expropriated, your assets seized. Not every country fulfills these conditions...
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  #1159  
Old 07.02.2015, 16:57
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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There is more to the cost than just hourly wage. To exploit it long term on large scale the state must be supporting such a model, e.g. kill the trade union activists. You need some assurance that your business won't be expropriated, your assets seized. Not every country fulfills these conditions...
Indeed. The Chinese currently invest in countries (like Argentina) which have a track record of seizing foreign owned businesses so that is very brave.

Anyway back to Ukraine; Mr Hollande's cautioned today: "If we don't manage to find not just a compromise but a lasting peace agreement, we know perfectly well what the scenario will be. It has a name, it's called war."

It does not look very hopeful that there will be a peace agreement.

Currently it looks like the Russian backed rebels are fighting to gain more territory. Most of the people who live there have either left or are trying to leave so what exactly the rebels will win is not clear.
A lot of empty territory with coal mines; many of which are now flooded and will require extensive and expensive renovation and few remaining miners to do the work. The miners have mostly either fled or joined the militia's.
It will be hard to persuade people to return especially if their houses and the local infrastructure (energy, water, sewage, transport) are no longer viable.

Clearly a land bridge to Crimea would benefit Russia but so far the fighting is not in that direction.
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Old 07.02.2015, 17:14
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Currently it looks like the Russian backed rebels are fighting to gain more territory. Most of the people who live there have either left or are trying to leave so what exactly the rebels will win is not clear.
Don't look for any logic in this war. War happens when logical routes fail. The war is about Putin becoming emotional and wanting to punish Ukraine for tilting away from Russia's sphere. Like a jealous boyfriend who's girlfriend is leaving him and he says, "If I can't have you, then nobody can!" Jealousy, anger, punishment.
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