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  #101  
Old 15.03.2014, 22:50
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Given the fact that Britain and the US signed a treaty in 1994 pledging to protect Ukraine and all its borders in return for giving up nuclear weapons...seems like there could be a big problem ahead.
Seems that Russia signed the same treaty?

Next question?
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  #102  
Old 15.03.2014, 23:01
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I don't think any part of Ukraine will go to Russia. I saw today in news that Ukraine is moving some heavy weaponry into the south part of country.

In my feeling, if there will be no diplomatic solutions found, the diplomacy will end, and the old style way of resolving conflicts will be engaged: war.
In which case all of Ukraine will go to Russia, because Ukraine can't win on its own and no one else will join in. Despite various treaties, US, UK, Germany and France will not put troops on the ground in Ukraine. If they did and tried to push Russia out we would indeed have WW3.
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  #103  
Old 15.03.2014, 23:11
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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In which case all of Ukraine will go to Russia, because Ukraine can't win on its own and no one else will join in. Despite various treaties, US, UK, Germany and France will not put troops on the ground in Ukraine. If they did and tried to push Russia out we would indeed have WW3.
As mentioned before, Russia signed the same treaty (Budapest memorandum of 1994). I quote;
"1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine;

2. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations
;"

Oddly I did not ever hear Putin mention this?

People keep mentioning the US and countries like Afghanistan & Iraq but the US were never so cold blooded and double dealing as the Russians have been - I mean to sign treaties with those countries promising to respect them before they invaded.
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  #104  
Old 15.03.2014, 23:26
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Seems that Russia signed the same treaty?

Next question?
What matters are the intentions people who sign a treaty have in mind. Mrs Merkel indicated that the E.U. was too slow in moving its links with Ukraine up. Clear is that the Russian advance will speed up the relations between Ukraine and the E.U. and even between Ukraine and NATO. Romania, Hungary and Poland as a result will move WEST rather more and even more swiftly

And so, Russia has the choice between making a closer link up with Bulgaria, OR to get a transit-agreement with Turkey for a road and rail transit links-network between Trabzon and Adana (or Iskenderun) which would include the movement of troops and military hardware, AND of course transit-roads and transit-railways completely separate from the Turkish road system and the Turkish Railways system (different gauges) . An extensive system of car and rail ferries between Sochi and Trabzon would be part of the scheme. A system of Russian seaports close to Adana, Iskenderun, Latakia and Tartous then would make the common dream of Empress Katharina II and Vladimir Putin (Czar Vladimir I ?) about full Russian access to the MED reality. For Turkey, the whole thing would be a tremendous money earner. That Turkey in the medium to longterm of course will quit NATO is a side-aspect, but will open up Izmir as a friendly port to the Mediterranean Eskadra

I mentioned Latakia and Tartous. Russia can work with either a re-stabilized Syria or a new Allawouite country on the Med in the Tartous Latakia region. And may prefer the latter. The Allawouites who love the Russians but clearly not the Turks will compete with the Turks for contracts. Turkish Kurds, dominant east of the Trabzon Adana Line will try to link up with both the Russians and the Allawouites. Strangely enough, Turkish Allawouites are heavily represented in the leadership of the Turkish Armed Forces

Last edited by Wollishofener; 15.03.2014 at 23:46.
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  #105  
Old 16.03.2014, 01:01
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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What matters are the intentions people who sign a treaty have in mind. Mrs Merkel indicated that the E.U. was too slow in moving its links with Ukraine up. Clear is that the Russian advance will speed up the relations between Ukraine and the E.U. and even between Ukraine and NATO. Romania, Hungary and Poland as a result will move WEST rather more and even more swiftly

And so, Russia has the choice between making a closer link up with Bulgaria, OR to get a transit-agreement with Turkey for a road and rail transit links-network between Trabzon and Adana (or Iskenderun) which would include the movement of troops and military hardware, AND of course transit-roads and transit-railways completely separate from the Turkish road system and the Turkish Railways system (different gauges) . An extensive system of car and rail ferries between Sochi and Trabzon would be part of the scheme. A system of Russian seaports close to Adana, Iskenderun, Latakia and Tartous then would make the common dream of Empress Katharina II and Vladimir Putin (Czar Vladimir I ?) about full Russian access to the MED reality. For Turkey, the whole thing would be a tremendous money earner. That Turkey in the medium to longterm of course will quit NATO is a side-aspect, but will open up Izmir as a friendly port to the Mediterranean Eskadra

I mentioned Latakia and Tartous. Russia can work with either a re-stabilized Syria or a new Allawouite country on the Med in the Tartous Latakia region. And may prefer the latter. The Allawouites who love the Russians but clearly not the Turks will compete with the Turks for contracts. Turkish Kurds, dominant east of the Trabzon Adana Line will try to link up with both the Russians and the Allawouites. Strangely enough, Turkish Allawouites are heavily represented in the leadership of the Turkish Armed Forces
About "OR to get a transit-agreement with Turkey for...." - probably not so easy to achieve. The traditional business method of giving senior politicians large wads of cash is probably blocked for now while the Turkish Govt. tries to calm down their major corruption scandal.

And of course in the very unlikely event of the AKP losing in the Turkish elections starting soon then the whole scene will look different. Anyway I assume the Russians will not try for any discussions about agreements before the elections are finished and it is clear who to talk to.
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  #106  
Old 16.03.2014, 10:23
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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As mentioned before, Russia signed the same treaty (Budapest memorandum of 1994). I quote;
"1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine;

2. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations;"
Which Russia has now broken so the words mean zip at this point in time. Putin has the Crimea and the only way they're going to get him out of there is by force I'm sorry to say. Sanctions will do nothing nor will any other diplomatic moves. The only relevant question now is - is retaking the Crimea worth starting WW3 over?
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  #107  
Old 16.03.2014, 11:07
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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About "OR to get a transit-agreement with Turkey for...." - probably not so easy to achieve. The traditional business method of giving senior politicians large wads of cash is probably blocked for now while the Turkish Govt. tries to calm down their major corruption scandal.

And of course in the very unlikely event of the AKP losing in the Turkish elections starting soon then the whole scene will look different. Anyway I assume the Russians will not try for any discussions about agreements before the elections are finished and it is clear who to talk to.
That the Russians needed 24 years to get the Crimea back proves that such things are far from easy

But Turkish politicians now will NOT get wads of cash but nice Datchas on the Crimea, vacated by upper class Ukrainians and real estate recently built in and around Sochi

The AKP never got a full majority in any election. But since the breaking apart of the Cumhüriyet Halk Partisi, the CHP no longer managed to get enough votes to enter parliament. As soon as two or three parties ally, the AKP will have to get a coalition, most likely with the CHP
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  #108  
Old 16.03.2014, 11:13
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Which Russia has now broken so the words mean zip at this point in time. Putin has the Crimea and the only way they're going to get him out of there is by force I'm sorry to say. Sanctions will do nothing nor will any other diplomatic moves. The only relevant question now is - is retaking the Crimea worth starting WW3 over?
Crimea is now REtaken by Russia. The Crimea became Russian in the time of Katharina II and was Russian until "Sir Nikita" transferred it to the Ukraine in the 1950ies. The Krasnodar Region already IS Russian and gives Russia direct access to the Krim. Before Katharina II, the Krim was TURKISH so that the rightful owner of it of course is the Turkish Republic
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  #109  
Old 16.03.2014, 14:00
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Or maybe US shale gas exports will reduce Russia's premium it charges for its gas and its impoverished society will collapse while all the petro-rubles are spent on building weapons.
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  #110  
Old 16.03.2014, 17:47
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Crimea is now REtaken by Russia. The Crimea became Russian in the time of Katharina II and was Russian until "Sir Nikita" transferred it to the Ukraine in the 1950ies. The Krasnodar Region already IS Russian and gives Russia direct access to the Krim. Before Katharina II, the Krim was TURKISH so that the rightful owner of it of course is the Turkish Republic
Iran. The Scythians controlled Crimea long before the Ottoman Empire existed.
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  #111  
Old 16.03.2014, 21:03
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Crimea exit poll: Around 93% back Russia union

Around 93% of voters in Crimea have backed joining Russia and seceding from Ukraine, according to exit polls quoted by Russian news agencies.

Polls closed at 18:00 GMT and officials hailed a "record" turnout. Preliminary results are expected within hours.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26598832

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Old 16.03.2014, 21:09
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Crimea exit poll: Around 93% back Russia union

Around 93% of voters in Crimea have backed joining Russia and seceding from Ukraine


Мне нравится борщ тоже!
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  #113  
Old 16.03.2014, 21:12
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Crimea exit poll: Around 93% back Russia union

Around 93% of voters in Crimea have backed joining Russia and seceding from Ukraine, according to exit polls quoted by Russian news agencies.

Polls closed at 18:00 GMT and officials hailed a "record" turnout. Preliminary results are expected within hours.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26598832

Congrats!

....24% were supposed to be Ukrainians or.....? Right. People change.
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  #114  
Old 16.03.2014, 21:16
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Мне нравится борщ тоже!
The text in Russian is "I also like borshch"

Well, borshch is a soup of Ukrainian origin What did you try to say?
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  #115  
Old 16.03.2014, 21:19
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Well, borshch is a soup of Ukrainian origin
Ukrainian... Russian... all the same to me (and the rest of the world... )
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  #116  
Old 16.03.2014, 21:20
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The text in Russian is "I also like borshch"

Well, borshch is a soup of Ukrainian origin What did you try to say?
You should figure out yourself, perhaps....
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  #117  
Old 16.03.2014, 21:21
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Ukrainian... Russian... all the same to me (and the rest of the world... )
...Greeks, Turks...all the same to me...
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  #118  
Old 16.03.2014, 21:27
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Ukrainian... Russian... all the same to me (and the rest of the world... )
That's what I thought
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  #119  
Old 16.03.2014, 21:30
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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That's what I thought
Right. As Moldovans with Romanians, oder?

No, actually not.
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  #120  
Old 16.03.2014, 21:34
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Congrats!

....24% were supposed to be Ukrainians or.....? Right. People change.
Or chose not to vote in the first place as two Ukrainian women interviewed by the Beeb did.
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