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  #1281  
Old 17.02.2015, 00:04
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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About " The MH317 matter is hopeless due to lack of proof" Actually there is plenty of proof but for some unknown reason the countries who have the proof do not want to publicise what they have

The governments of the Netherlands and of Malaysia cannot prove WHO exactly fired




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Well, if the US had proof that the Russians shut it down, their interest would be to make it known asap, not hiding it. If someone manages to build a coherent argument free of the usual fallacies, I call the Nobel committee for nominees myself on the spot. I said free of fallacies, that's the hard part.

For the record: I genuinely don't know and don't have an opinion about this, I just find the think experiment interesting. To me, both sides are perfectly capable of shutting a plane and blaming it on the other side - equally able.


I am almost sure that the USA do NOT have any real proof
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  #1282  
Old 17.02.2015, 13:34
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The governments of the Netherlands and of Malaysia cannot prove WHO exactly fired

I am almost sure that the USA do NOT have any real proof
Obama was the guy who did not produce his birth certificate for a very long time until all his enemies had made definitive statements about his birth which they then had to publicly withdraw.
Who knows, maybe he is playing the same game or is waiting for something worth bargaining about?

According to the newspapers today Poroschenko's family have left Ukraine due to threats from their own side. Threats are due to the possible/probable fate of the soldiers claimed to be trapped in Debaltseve and claims that Poroschenko has failed these soldiers!
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  #1283  
Old 17.02.2015, 20:27
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World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Russian propaganda and Russia's friends:
https://translate.googleusercontent....4YaahGKwZoxXvg
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  #1284  
Old 18.02.2015, 01:10
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

More interesting stuff.
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  #1285  
Old 18.02.2015, 15:41
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

A piece by Chris Martenson.

The US’s Suicidal Strategy on Ukraine

http://www.caseyresearch.com/article...egy-on-ukraine
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  #1286  
Old 18.02.2015, 17:04
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Delbatseve taken by Russian, and Putin rubs salt in the wound:
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President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, speaking in Budapest, said the soldiers in Debaltseve were surrounded and should surrender. “Of course, it is always painful to lose,” he said, “especially when you are losing not to a regular army but to people who yesterday happened to be miners and truck drivers.”
Which is kind of funny, because deputy head of the Russian ground forces General Alexander Lentsov was overseeing the operation (did he used to be a miner or truck driver?)





https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dV4WYWpuNWw
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  #1287  
Old 18.02.2015, 23:18
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Delbatseve taken by Russian, and Putin rubs salt in the wound:


Which is kind of funny, because deputy head of the Russian ground forces General Alexander Lentsov was overseeing the operation (did he used to be a miner or truck driver?)





https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dV4WYWpuNWw
About "to people who yesterday happened to be miners and truck drivers" Quite disrespectful to the many Russian soldiers who were killed there (whether they were there officially or just on holiday!).
Pity there is no attention paid to public opinion in the Soviet Russia.
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  #1288  
Old 20.02.2015, 00:45
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Seems that the "rebels" are now attacking Mariupol so trying to capture a land bridge to Crimea.

Diplomacy is not working with Putin and the West does not have the will to fight so what next?
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  #1289  
Old 20.02.2015, 04:20
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Seems that the "rebels" are now attacking Mariupol so trying to capture a land bridge to Crimea.

Diplomacy is not working with Putin and the West does not have the will to fight so what next?


When he has the land-bridge to the Crimea Mr Putin will talk with Bulgaria, Turkey, Egypt in order to arrange access to the warmer seas.


"Rebels" in Saloniki may demand a RE-unificatîon with Bulgaria
"Activists" in Bulgaria will demand Bulgaria joining Russia
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  #1290  
Old 20.02.2015, 11:33
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Seems that the "rebels" are now attacking Mariupol so trying to capture a land bridge to Crimea.

Diplomacy is not working with Putin and the West does not have the will to fight so what next?

The economic sanctions could have worked (maybe) if the "West" didn't have so many opposing views and interests among themselves...look at ex satellite countries (and not only) such as Hungary (or pretty much everyone in that region except for Poland and Romania)
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/0...0LL1XP20150217

I'm afraid that Ukraine will get weapons and then we will see what war really means.

P.S. Here's an excerpt from Mr. Orban's speech...one can't help but agree with him..

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The Hungarian prime minister also criticised those in Europe who want to isolate Russia - a stance that sets him apart many of his fellow EU leaders.
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"We are convinced that locking Russia out of Europe is not rational," Orban said. "Whoever thinks that Europe can be competitive, that the European economy can be competitive without economic cooperation with Russia, whoever thinks that energy security can exist in Europe without the energy that comes from Russia, is chasing ghosts."

Last edited by greenmount; 20.02.2015 at 12:43.
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  #1291  
Old 20.02.2015, 13:02
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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When he has the land-bridge to the Crimea Mr Putin will talk with Bulgaria, Turkey, Egypt in order to arrange access to the warmer seas.


"Rebels" in Saloniki may demand a RE-unificatîon with Bulgaria
"Activists" in Bulgaria will demand Bulgaria joining Russia
Either Bulgaria will learn from Ukraine and bring in their army in massive force on day one of any "activist" actions or they will fall

Probably their people will not be supportive of "rebels" now they see the real cost for civilians in E. Ukraine.
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  #1292  
Old 20.02.2015, 13:31
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Either Bulgaria will learn from Ukraine and bring in their army in massive force on day one of any "activist" actions or they will fall

Probably their people will not be supportive of "rebels" now they see the real cost for civilians in E. Ukraine.
Bulgaria is highly dependant on Russian gas and negatively affected by economic sanctions against Russia; even so, after pressures from EU they (suicidally) suspended their negotiations with Russia re. South Stream project.
It seems that Greece will be part of it now..

Bulgaria joining Russia seems like a joke to me.

Last edited by greenmount; 20.02.2015 at 13:44.
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  #1293  
Old 20.02.2015, 15:25
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Debaltseve was a contentious point of the recent Minsk negotiations.
But now reports abound of more and more Russian arms and troops pouring into the region of Novoazovsk, as if preparing for conquering land bridge towards Crimea, which isn't yet a fait accompli - therefore it would be a grave breach of the cease-fire.
I wouldn't like to have any stakes in the survival of the Baltic states.
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  #1294  
Old 20.02.2015, 16:05
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Bulgaria joining Russia seems like a joke to me.
Anyone wanting to join Russia sounds like a joke to me

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Debaltseve was a contentious point of the recent Minsk negotiations.
But now reports abound of more and more Russian arms and troops pouring into the region of Novoazovsk, as if preparing for conquering land bridge towards Crimea, which isn't yet a fait accompli - therefore it would be a grave breach of the cease-fire.
I wouldn't like to have any stakes in the survival of the Baltic states.
There are long columns of military vehicles reported in Crimea as well. Russia may be planning a multi-pronged attack, simultaneously from Crimea, Novoazovsk and possibly from Transiteria (ie: via Odessa) as well. They could probably take the whole of Southern Ukraine in a matter of a couple of weeks or less.

The question is more if Putin is willing to raise the stakes that high. Obviously NATO/EU/US is not willing to get involved militarily, and the Ukraine military would melt under a full-on Russian assault. Western sanctions have proved useless, altho taking South Ukraine would deepen the rift and possibly cement a Cold War 2.

The Baltics are a different story however, as that is stepping directly on NATO territory, and in that case, Russia will be taking NATO head-on. I'm not sure if Putin is even THAT crazy (altho it's hard to say these days)
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  #1295  
Old 20.02.2015, 16:08
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The economic sanctions could have worked (maybe) if the "West" didn't have so many opposing views and interests among themselves...look at ex satellite countries (and not only) such as Hungary (or pretty much everyone in that region except for Poland and Romania)
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/0...0LL1XP20150217

I'm afraid that Ukraine will get weapons and then we will see what war really means.

P.S. Here's an excerpt from Mr. Orban's speech...one can't help but agree with him..
About " if the "West" didn't have so many opposing views and interests among themselves" it is a democracy inn'it. Life is so much simpler when you are a ruthless dictator Make your own decisions yourself and murder any opposition.

Any not to worry! Looks like a good portion of Europe will soon have the benefits of unilateral decision making.
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  #1296  
Old 20.02.2015, 16:15
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Anyone wanting to join Russia sounds like a joke to me


There are long columns of military vehicles reported in Crimea as well. Russia may be planning a multi-pronged attack, simultaneously from Crimea, Novoazovsk and possibly from Transiteria (ie: via Odessa) as well. They could probably take the whole of Southern Ukraine in a matter of a couple of weeks or less.

The question is more if Putin is willing to raise the stakes that high. Obviously NATO/EU/US is not willing to get involved militarily, and the Ukraine military would melt under a full-on Russian assault. Western sanctions have proved useless, altho taking South Ukraine would deepen the rift and possibly cement a Cold War 2.

The Baltics are a different story however, as that is stepping directly on NATO territory, and in that case, Russia will be taking NATO head-on. I'm not sure if Putin is even THAT crazy (altho it's hard to say these days)
There is anyway the 1994 Budapest memorandum?
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  #1297  
Old 20.02.2015, 20:26
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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About " if the "West" didn't have so many opposing views and interests among themselves" it is a democracy inn'it. Life is so much simpler when you are a ruthless dictator Make your own decisions yourself and murder any opposition.

Any not to worry! Looks like a good portion of Europe will soon have the benefits of unilateral decision making.
Oh, c'mon Marton, pleease. It's not that and you know it very well. The thing is just a few European countries respect the common (at least at a declarative level) EU policy re. Russia...So, they will pay the price while others will only benefit...I can't really blame them, but then again, let's not play the hypocrites and cry over Ukraine's land loss...and then maybe even shout at imperialist, ruthless Russia but ask only a selected few to keep their word.
I can't see how a Union will function if they can't act together during a crisis like this. You can't just pick and choose what it's in your advantage....

My impression is that Ukraine will somehow get weapons and then we'll have a second "Afghanistan" next door.

Last edited by greenmount; 20.02.2015 at 20:45.
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  #1298  
Old 20.02.2015, 23:47
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I can't see how a Union will function if they can't act together during a crisis like this. You can't just pick and choose what it's in your advantage....
It's clear the EU's fragmentation is it's biggest weakness, however despite varying opinions, it is still acting largely in unison (even Greece's new leaders agreed to the latest round of sanctions).

As for precedence, you don't need to look to far, just go back 25 years to the First Cold War. Did West Europe act in unison towards the USSR? Answer, in large, yes.


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My impression is that Ukraine will somehow get weapons and then we'll have a second "Afghanistan" next door.
And if they don't, we may have a second "Anschluss" next door (and we all know what happened after that). Of course nobody wants war, but is letting an aggressor walk all over you the correct way to keep the peace?
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  #1299  
Old 21.02.2015, 01:31
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Oh, c'mon Marton, pleease. It's not that and you know it very well. The thing is just a few European countries respect the common (at least at a declarative level) EU policy re. Russia...So, they will pay the price while others will only benefit...I can't really blame them, but then again, let's not play the hypocrites and cry over Ukraine's land loss...and then maybe even shout at imperialist, ruthless Russia but ask only a selected few to keep their word.
I can't see how a Union will function if they can't act together during a crisis like this. You can't just pick and choose what it's in your advantage....

My impression is that Ukraine will somehow get weapons and then we'll have a second "Afghanistan" next door.
About "My impression is that Ukraine will somehow get weapons " Problem is not only weapons, modern weapons require skilled operators so does the West also supply the people? Training locals to use new weapons would likely take too long to be effective.
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Old 21.02.2015, 12:27
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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About "My impression is that Ukraine will somehow get weapons " Problem is not only weapons, modern weapons require skilled operators so does the West also supply the people? Training locals to use new weapons would likely take too long to be effective.

The Mujaheddins armed with modern weapons established a de facto no fly zone for Soviets. Mostly, I guess, illiterate farmers.
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