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  #1321  
Old 25.02.2015, 19:48
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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That's fine I suppose, except then Russia is going against the UN resolutions that they signed, but that wouldn't be the first time they said one thing and did another

http://www.un.org/sc/committees/1737/



And in an interesting twist, the UAE will soon be supplying weapons to Ukraine....

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/252223.html
Not to mention the 1994 Budapest agreement
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  #1322  
Old 25.02.2015, 21:20
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Putin says Ukraine's non-delivery of gas to occupied (pro-Russian) territories "smells like genocide", and at the same time Russia threatens to stop delivery of gas to the rest of Ukraine. So when Russia stops the gas it's just business, but when Ukraine does it it's "genocide"? I guess this somehow makes sense in Putin's upside-down world....



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President Vladimir Putin has warned that Ukraine faces a natural-gas cutoff that could leave Europe with shortages while saying Kyiv's suspension of gas supplies to separatist parts of eastern Ukraine "smells of genocide."
...
Gazprom started shipping gas directly to separatist-controlled areas of eastern Ukraine on February 19 after Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev ordered his Energy Ministry to work out a supply plan as "humanitarian aid."
http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-.../26869573.html
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  #1323  
Old 25.02.2015, 21:24
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Ukrainian hryvnia just hit new low and falling. Ukrainian supermarkets are imposing rationing of basic products such as cooking oil, flour and sugar.

Ukraine’s hryvnia lost 70 percent of its value against other currencies in just a year. At the same time:
Spending on social services dropped 5%
Spending on education dropped 8%
Spending on healthcare dropped 20%
Spending on defence increased 82%
Spending on national security increased 14%
Spending on the servicing of debt increased 50%

The tariffs for heating, water, gas have grown, and food prices are growing. The minimum weekly wage in Ukraine is less than $43 -- currently...

Somebody had written in huge letters on the wall of the former residence of the former president of Ukraine: Yanukovich come back((
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  #1324  
Old 25.02.2015, 21:57
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Somebody had written in huge letters on the wall of the former residence of the former president of Ukraine: Yanukovich come back((
...that deserves a facepalm:

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  #1325  
Old 26.02.2015, 01:19
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Quote from New York Times here
"Moscow Was Urged to Annex Crimea Before Ukraine President’s Fall, Report Says"
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  #1326  
Old 26.02.2015, 10:51
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Quote from New York Times here
"Moscow Was Urged to Annex Crimea Before Ukraine President’s Fall, Report Says"
The topic was in the air for some times, yes. So what? It's no breaking news. People publically calling for reunification were not exactly silent. One can easiy find other documents and speeches caling for it without making it look like a comspiracy.
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  #1327  
Old 26.02.2015, 20:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The topic was in the air for some times, yes. So what? It's no breaking news. People publically calling for reunification were not exactly silent. One can easiy find other documents and speeches caling for it without making it look like a comspiracy.
True, this document tells us what we already know: that Russia is dismembering Ukraine for their own gain (ie: gas pipelines and new territory, as written in the document), all the "referendums" were shams, scripts and slogans were pre-made in Moscow and given to "local protestors", etc..

However there other insights to the Kremlin thinking is interesting, for ex. that they thought the East parts of Ukraine would be more easily taken into Russia; that "Yanukovych is a person of low moral and will-power", which is ironic considering Russian TV channels have been playing up his plan to "return to Ukraine" (which is kind of pathetic, if that guy really is the best puppet in Ukraine that Moscow can buy?)

There was also repeated mention of Russia's economy (in reference to oil pipelines and annexing new territories), so apparently Russia is actually concerned about their economy, which has gotten much worse since the time that document was drafted 1 year ago. So considering Russia's weak economic position, and the E.Ukraine not being as receptive to being taken into Russia as they thought they would be, maybe Russia will just settle for the territory it has already taken (Donetsk/Lughansk) and leave it at that for now. I guess we'll see, if the current ceasefire stands, or if a push for Mariupol happens...
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  #1328  
Old 27.02.2015, 09:49
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

How is Russia in a weak economic position?

And please dont bother throwing Reuters and AP propaganda at me as well as "junk status" ratings from US backed ratings agencies.

How is it that a country which has huge economic trading partners and massive natural resources is considered weak?

Weak compared to the US? well thats a no brainer but weak compared to most other countries?

The US is printing money 24/7/365 and has a huge national debt. But this in no way has made the US a weak country. Money works by perception not its true hidden value.

What matters is a capable work force, resources and trading partners. And frankly I dont see Russia lacking to a large degree in any of these ways.
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  #1329  
Old 27.02.2015, 10:54
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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How is Russia in a weak economic position?.
The Russian Ruble has fallen by about 50% the last year against other major currencies, that's a fact. Their reserves are burning up quite fast, altho they can hold on another year or two still. Altho they admit a prolonged recession is coming up, food prices are rising fast enough for Russian authorities to introduce price-fixing.

...these are reported in official Russian state news, not any Western news outlets...

Quote:
MOSCOW, February 26. /TASS/. Russia’s international reserves mostly comprising gold and foreign currency declined by $3.7 billion in the week of February 13-20 to $364.6 billion, the Central Bank of Russia said on Thursday.

Russia’s international reserves fell by $124.135 billion or 24.4% in 2014 to $385.46 billion as of January 1, 2015.
During the crisis of 2008-2009, the country’s international reserves were seen to plummet to as low as $376 billion (mid-March 2009).
http://tass.ru/en/economy/779827

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MOSCOW, February 9. /TASS/. The Russian government could set the price ceilings in the regions for essential foodstuffs that have seen a 30% growth in prices over the last month, the Izvestia newspaper reported on Monday.
http://tass.ru/en/economy/776293

Quote:
MOSCOW, February 16. /TASS/. The Russian economy will enter a stage of a prolonged recession in 2015, according to a specified macro-economic forecast for this year released by the Economy Ministry on Monday.
"GDP is expected to contract by 3% amid persistently strong geopolitical risks and the presumption that average annual oil prices will equal $50 per barrel. Forecasts show that the Russian economy will enter a phase of a prolonged decline in 2015," the document said.
http://tass.ru/en/economy/777942
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  #1330  
Old 27.02.2015, 18:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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How is Russia in a weak economic position?
GDP per capita in Russia is half of the Western world (at purchasing power parity). Life expectancy is 3rd world, which results in lower than elsewhere pension and healthcare spendings.
Former communist block countries which joined EU have GDP per capita not smaller than Russia without all the landmass and natural resources. I think it is clear where Russia's economy is heading.
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  #1331  
Old 27.02.2015, 19:57
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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GDP per capita in Russia is half of the Western world (at purchasing power parity). Life expectancy is 3rd world, which results in lower than elsewhere pension and healthcare spendings.
Former communist block countries which joined EU have GDP per capita not smaller than Russia without all the landmass and natural resources. I think it is clear where Russia's economy is heading.
Russian economy completely collapsed in 1991 and in 1998. In fact when the Soviet Union broke apart Russia took over all the debts of the USSR. Only since 2000 the economy started to recover. Russian debt is small. Russia is running a surplus of the accont balance -- actually it has one of the highest surplus numbers. Guess who is running the biggest deficit? Right...

The counries from the former communist block who joined EU -- not everybody is as rich as Germany -- or as Russia. Bulgaria, Poland, Romania, Hungary are not as fortunate.
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  #1332  
Old 27.02.2015, 20:57
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Russian economy completely collapsed in 1991 and in 1998. In fact when the Soviet Union broke apart Russia took over all the debts of the USSR. Only since 2000 the economy started to recover. Russian debt is small. Russia is running a surplus of the accont balance -- actually it has one of the highest surplus numbers. Guess who is running the biggest deficit? Right...

The counries from the former communist block who joined EU -- not everybody is as rich as Germany -- or as Russia. Bulgaria, Poland, Romania, Hungary are not as fortunate.
How are the average people doing in Russia? Average, neither the poorest nor the richest. I think it's more important to know the general feeling of population, rather than budget deficit and things like that. The country might be rich per se but the way national wealth is distributed could tell me more.
I'll tell you something: for me personally it's much more important to have a functional/independent justice system and non-corrupted state institutions.
If we achieve that, and we will, the rest will start improving and I might be cynical to say, but it's worth all the sacrifices. (yes I know, I'm not the underpaid worker/teacher/doctor/nurse etc..)

Last edited by greenmount; 27.02.2015 at 21:07.
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  #1333  
Old 27.02.2015, 21:27
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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How are the average people doing in Russia? Average, neither the poorest nor the richest. I think it's more important to know the general feeling of population, rather than budget deficit and things like that. The country might be rich per se but the way national wealth is distributed could tell me more.
I'll tell you something: for me personally it's much more important to have a functional/independent justice system and non-corrupted state institutions.
If we achieve that, and we will, the rest will start improving and I might be cynical to say, but it's worth all the sacrifices. (yes I know, I'm not the underpaid worker/teacher/doctor/nurse etc..)
About "the general feeling of population", as already mentioned take a look at the WHO life expectancy table, abbreviated copy attached. People live longer in Vietnam than Russia.

Last edited by marton; 13.11.2020 at 21:43.
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  #1334  
Old 27.02.2015, 21:56
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Russian economy completely collapsed in 1991 and in 1998. In fact when the Soviet Union broke apart Russia took over all the debts of the USSR. Only since 2000 the economy started to recover.
Since 2000 the price of oil has shot up from $20/barrel to over $100/barrel. I know many in Russia credit Putin with the boost in the economy the last 15 years, but I think Russia would have prospered during this time even with a drunk Yeltsin asleep at the wheel

Now with less demand for oil in China, and increased production from the US, prices will only continue to go down. Coupled with the weakened Ruble and Western sanctions (and Western investors/capital exiting the country), Russia is headed for much larger economic problems than they have seen in the past 15 years or so.

Well, in 2008/9 there was some problems and protests when oil prices suddenly sank, but the price of oil jumped up again before any mass public unrest could really take hold. Let's see how things go this time around. Their reserves can still carry them for another 2 years or so.




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As of 2012 oil and gas sector accounted for 16% of the GDP, 52% of federal budget revenues and over 70% of total exports.[25][26]
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  #1335  
Old 27.02.2015, 22:06
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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The counries from the former communist block who joined EU -- not everybody is as rich as Germany -- or as Russia. Bulgaria, Poland, Romania, Hungary are not as fortunate.

Poland has none of riches of Russia but in PPP terms is on equal footing on average, and with a slightly lower Gini coefficient might be a bit more egalitarian. Similar is true for Czech, Slovakia, Hungary, Baltic States. Romania and Bulgaria are less fortunate and were so also before 1989.
Nothing like the above can be observed in the other former Soviet republics still in the orbit of Russia. With one small exception - Russia subsided Belarus per capita more than EU the Eastern Europe - with cheap fossil fuels which Belarus uses to manufacture fertilizers and export at market prices. But that's over until oil price increases. And the country is still poor - when I was there I though I moved back in time 50 years.

That might be one of the reasons Moscow decided to destroy Ukraine - because they know their way of governance doesn't work well and the last thing they wanted was a counter example that could pull other former republics further away.
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  #1336  
Old 27.02.2015, 23:34
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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How are the average people doing in Russia? Average, neither the poorest nor the richest. I think it's more important to know the general feeling of population, rather than budget deficit and things like that. The country might be rich per se but the way national wealth is distributed could tell me more.
I'll tell you something: for me personally it's much more important to have a functional/independent justice system and non-corrupted state institutions.
If we achieve that, and we will, the rest will start improving and I might be cynical to say, but it's worth all the sacrifices. (yes I know, I'm not the underpaid worker/teacher/doctor/nurse etc..)
How can you be sure that you will achieve that? Currently the corruption in EU is 'breathtaking'. In 2014 the EU commission estimated that corruption costs the EU economy 120bn euros annually -- did it change to the better in the last year? I don't think so.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26014387
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  #1337  
Old 27.02.2015, 23:50
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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...
That might be one of the reasons Moscow decided to destroy Ukraine - because they know their way of governance doesn't work well and the last thing they wanted was a counter example that could pull other former republics further away.
Ukraine's economic situation was very bad in 2013. It was very bad since the fall of the Soviet Union, but by 2013 it was getting dangerously bad. Do you know how many Ukrainians work in Russia? How would Ukraine possibly recover from that? Look at Greece -- this country is having terrible problems for years, and nobody in EU can fix them, at least not yet. Well, Ukraine 2013 was in much more difficult situation than Greece. Nobody was seriously planning to improve economy of Ukraine, it was just not possible.
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  #1338  
Old 27.02.2015, 23:52
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Ukraine's economic situation was very bad in 2013. It was very bad since the fall of the Soviet Union, but by 2013 it was getting dangerously bad. Do you know how many Ukrainians work in Russia? How would Ukraine possibly recover from that? Look at Greece -- this country is having terrible problems for years, and nobody in EU can fix them, at least not yet. Well, Ukraine 2013 was in much more difficult situation than Greece. Nobody was seriously planning to improve economy of Ukraine, it was just not possible.
Russian opposition politician Boris Nemtsov shot dead in Moscow
Former deputy prime minister and critic of Vladimir Putin who was due to take part in march on Sunday was reportedly killed near the Kremlin

The march against Putin’s government and the war in Ukraine was due to take place in a suburb of Moscow. One of the other organisers of the march, Alexei Navalny, was jailed for 15 days ahead of the march.
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  #1339  
Old 28.02.2015, 00:00
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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How can you be sure that you will achieve that? Currently the corruption in EU is 'breathtaking'. In 2014 the EU commission estimated that corruption costs the EU economy 120bn euros annually -- did it change to the better in the last year? I don't think so.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26014387
Yes, I am sure because at least in my country there were already numerous cases brought to justice, and there is literally no-one above the law now. I won't even dare compare it with the '90s when you wouldn't hope you'll ever see the "smart boys" behind bars... How many big corruption cases were prosecuted in Russia? I mean involving important persons.
Of course there will always be attempts to corruption, or corruption to a certain degree everywhere, every rich/poor country has it...but not to a degree when it really affects so many things.
Btw, apparently Boris Nemtov from Russian opposition has just been assassinated. We've never been here since communism ended...I don't know, you tell me if this is good or bad...
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  #1340  
Old 28.02.2015, 00:12
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Ukraine's economic situation was very bad in 2013. It was very bad since the fall of the Soviet Union, but by 2013 it was getting dangerously bad. Do you know how many Ukrainians work in Russia? How would Ukraine possibly recover from that? Look at Greece -- this country is having terrible problems for years, and nobody in EU can fix them, at least not yet. Well, Ukraine 2013 was in much more difficult situation than Greece. Nobody was seriously planning to improve economy of Ukraine, it was just not possible.
About "Ukraine's economic situation was very bad in 2013. It was very bad since the fall of the Soviet Union, but by 2013 it was getting dangerously bad."

Which is why Ukraine was turning to the EU and IMF to fund the solution.

But since then Ukraine lost its tourist trade because Russia stole Crimea, for the same reason Ukraine lost the large rent paid by Russia for Sevastopol and lost the opportunity to exploit their Black Sea energy reserves.

Now it is claimed that Russia is stealing all the coal from East Ukraine and selling it back to Ukraine.

Defence spending to counter Russian aggression is also going through the roof.

No I do not see a solution to Ukraine's financial problems unless Russia pays reparations for all the damage which is highly unlikely.
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