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  #1441  
Old 05.06.2015, 19:43
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Why fighting now just before EU is about to decide whether to maintain the economic sanctions against Russia?
Exactly. Russia claims that Ukraine is fighting to put pressure on EU to maintain the sanctions.
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  #1442  
Old 05.06.2015, 22:24
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Exactly. Russia claims that Ukraine is fighting to put pressure on EU to maintain the sanctions.
Maybe Russia should close the border.
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  #1443  
Old 07.06.2015, 15:44
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

ft article here about life in the rebel held part of E. Ukraine.

Sounds very grim; may not be entirely accurate of course.
Certainly I can believe the economy is in trouble because a lot of the industry was destroyed in the fighting or the workers are no longer there; dead, injured, in militias or fled the country-
Plus I assume a lot of goods have to be imported from Russia at higher costs?

Russia does not seem to be supporting financially?
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  #1444  
Old 07.06.2015, 23:22
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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ft article here about life in the rebel held part of E. Ukraine.

Sounds very grim; may not be entirely accurate of course.
Certainly I can believe the economy is in trouble because a lot of the industry was destroyed in the fighting or the workers are no longer there; dead, injured, in militias or fled the country-
Plus I assume a lot of goods have to be imported from Russia at higher costs?
Goods transports are more risky, need to be bribed for, etc. Higher costs beget higher prices, and of course people will simply try to demand as high a price as they get paid for.
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Russia does not seem to be supporting financially?
If Russia was active on a larger scale, wouldn't it make sense to "buy" people's allegiance now, cheaply (along "you don't bite the hand that feeds you")?

Which begs the question, why doesn't it? After all, the borderline is long enough to bring goods into east Ukraine should Russia want to.
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  #1445  
Old 08.06.2015, 00:24
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Goods transports are more risky, need to be bribed for, etc. Higher costs beget higher prices, and of course people will simply try to demand as high a price as they get paid for.

If Russia was active on a larger scale, wouldn't it make sense to "buy" people's allegiance now, cheaply (along "you don't bite the hand that feeds you")?

Which begs the question, why doesn't it? After all, the borderline is long enough to bring goods into east Ukraine should Russia want to.
About "Which begs the question, why doesn't it? "

Well the price of oil and the value of the rouble has collapsed.

Russia's plans to exploit Arctic oil and gas reserves have been put on hold due to lack of cash. They have announced plans for new multi billion pipelines to Europe but no sign of work actually starting.

Despite Russian brave words the Western economic sanctions are really hurting.

They are spending a fortune on upgrading the military but there is no return on investment here.

Supporting Crimea is costing Russia a fortune (Alexei Ulyukayev, the economic development minister, announced that the federal government would spend $4.5bn a year on Crimea’s energy, water and transport networks) additionally he announced plans to build a multi billion bridge from Russia to Crimea but it is not clear if the work has actually started; usually there is some sort of politician photographed symbolically starting the work.

Military support for East Ukraine has also cost a fortune.

Building work for the World Cup is also very expensive, especially if it will be cancelled.

There are still some 4 million people in East Ukraine; maybe it would just be too expensive.
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  #1446  
Old 08.06.2015, 11:52
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Exactly. Russia claims that Ukraine is fighting to put pressure on EU to maintain the sanctions.
Just days before the G7 summit and EU review of sanctions extensions, suddenly Russia releases a black-list banning 89 EU officials from their country. It seems like Russia is trying to put pressure on EU to maintain the sanctions.
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  #1447  
Old 08.06.2015, 12:03
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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Supporting Crimea is costing Russia a fortune (Alexei Ulyukayev, the economic development minister, announced that the federal government would spend $4.5bn a year on Crimea’s energy, water and transport networks) additionally he announced plans to build a multi billion bridge from Russia to Crimea but it is not clear if the work has actually started; usually there is some sort of politician photographed symbolically starting the work.
It's costing them alot more than that...at least according to "experts" quoted in Russian media...who knows what the real cost will be...

Quote:
MOSCOW, March 31. /TASS/. The Russian economy’s total losses from Crimea’s reintegration are estimated at $150-200 billion over 3-4 years, ex-Finance Minister Alexey Kudrin said on Tuesday.


Kudrin made his statement at a round table discussion held at TASS news agency on the fifteenth anniversary of Vladimir Putin's election as Russia's president.


"During 3-4 years, this figure may reach from $150 billion to $200 billion," Kudrin said. "These are indirect and direct losses in aggregate. This is a very approximate estimate but this is what it will perhaps be, in my view," the expert added.
http://tass.ru/en/russia/786132
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  #1448  
Old 12.06.2015, 15:26
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

More Russian soldiers dying in Ukraine...

http://news.sky.com/story/1499223/ru...aine-questions

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He said there had been paratroopers at the funeral, but that Ivan himself "was Spetsnaz".


In each of the three locations a number of people told us the men "died heroically" - but if they did, serving their country, and not in Ukraine, why is their government silent about their deaths?


And if these men had left the army and were not on active duty at the time, why is the ministry of defence sending flowers to their funerals?
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  #1449  
Old 14.06.2015, 16:42
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Sanctions against Russia will stay in place, and further sanctions are being prepared should if Russia advances further into Ukraine.

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The European parliament passed a resolution calling on EU governments to keep the measures in place after Russian President Vladimir Putin traveled to Italy Wednesday in what many in the West saw as a bid to break European solidarity on the sanctions.

The United States and the European Union are finalizing further sanctions against Russia that could be imposed if Moscow takes additional military action in Ukraine, senior U.S. administration officials and European diplomats said Thursday.
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/06/12/po...nctions-us-eu/
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  #1450  
Old 14.06.2015, 19:06
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

This is just a parliament resolution. The decision is to be made. But they're not enough and are not enforced:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/98cc653a-1...#axzz3d3b0p06o
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  #1451  
Old 16.06.2015, 12:55
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

People in Donetsk are getting fed up with the war and demanding peace.

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SOUNDBITE (Russian) Natalia, Last name not given, Donetsk resident:

"Our soldiers are shooting - we can still walk the streets, then the 'answer' - shelling - comes. What kind of war is that? Why our soldiers are hiding behind buildings? What kind of frontline is that? Have they decided to destroy everything around?"
The DPR "leader" Zahkarenko tells them that they need to shoot from schools in order to avenge the deaths of children:

Quote:
I will tell you the truth, yes, we have to shoot from our territory, but thanks to our artillery shooting from near the 41st School, we destroyed that battery of Ukrainian artillery who killed a little girl in Horlivka
Hmm, maybe if they didn't station their guns next to schools, then maybe children wouldn't be at such risk in the first place?

http://www.aparchive.com/metadata/-U...age=1&b=48ecab
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  #1452  
Old 17.06.2015, 08:45
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Excellent read, signed off by Carl Bildt, Madeline Albright and many others...it's hard to hide in a world full of cellphone cameras, satellite imagery, etc..

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/publi...ov-s-putin-war

...and if there are any questions that social-media, geo-tagging, etc. can be used reliably to track soldiers movements, watch this and it will remove all doubts...

https://news.vice.com/video/selfie-s...-in-to-ukraine
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  #1453  
Old 17.06.2015, 16:11
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Just been announced the EU have extended their Russian sanctions for 6 months....
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  #1454  
Old 20.06.2015, 03:29
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

“And there are cases which are very difficult, or failures. ...Ukraine has had in the recent past as many as three unsuccessful programs – 2008, 2010, and 2014. And it’s now executing a fourth program with the IMF.”

"IMF is developing rather slowly to a rapidly changing world. It’s a large bureaucracy, 70 years old … in Washington DC."

Source

Only the naïve or willfully ignorant can pretend there are no nefarious plans (not least of the economic/monetary/fiscal variety) being executed via Washington and the bankers who own it.
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  #1455  
Old 20.06.2015, 09:47
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Without IMF help, Ukraine would have no money to pay pensioners, doctors, police, etc and would essentially become a failed state and turn into a lawless European Somalia. Are you saying that is a better option than the IMF bailout?

BTW Russia is not only supplying the DNR with weapons, but also trucking in food/supplies, as well as truckloads of cash, which is equivalent to the IMF bailout.
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  #1456  
Old 22.06.2015, 18:04
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Though it doesn't quite corroborate the out-of-thin-air narrative propagated by the pro-Kiev bunch on EF, some 10,000 Ukrainians have ostensibly wised-up and opted-out of treating their fellow Ukrainians as "terrorists" to be arbitrarily crushed by military force.

Farewell to Arms: Over 10,000 Soldiers Desert Ukrainian Army
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  #1457  
Old 22.06.2015, 22:09
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

Interesting statement from Vlad a couple of days ago. He seems to be admitting fueling the war by supplying the separatists with weapons. And if we want the weapons to "disappear" then Ukraine and the West should give him the political solution that he wants (ie: to have a Russian-controlled enclave within Ukraine, gaurantees against NATO, etc.) In other words blackmailing the West with war and threats of larger war until he gets what he wants.

Quote:
“Before the army units and the so-called battalions – armed nationalist units – appeared on those territories, there were no weapons there; and there still would have been none had they tried to resolve the situation by peaceful means right from the start. Weapons appeared there only after they started killing people using tanks, artillery, multiple rocket launch systems and aviation. That gave rise to resistance. Once an attempt is made to resolve the issue by political means, the weapons will be gone.

http://venajavsukraina.blogspot.ch/2...kraine-no.html
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  #1458  
Old 23.06.2015, 21:49
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

It seems Russians who have ties or have visited Crimea are being denied Schengen visa's. And apparently Putin doesn't like it..

Quote:
Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused an embattled consumer rights group that has cautioned Russians against traveling to Crimea of "serving the interests of foreign states."

Putin was speaking on June 23 at a session of Russia's Public Chamber, a Kremlin advisory body, a day after Russia's state media watchdog announced that it had blocked the website of the Society for the Protection of Consumer Rights.


The Prosecutor-General's Office, meanwhile, has launched a probe against the nongovernmental organization, which is on the Justice Ministry's list of foreign agents.


The group published a notice last week warning Russians of potential problems if they travel to the "occupied territory" of Crimea, which it said is still a part of Ukraine according to international agreements.


The group's chairman, Mikhail Anshakov, said the memo was released following multiple complaints from Russians unable to get a Schengen visa after travelling to the Black Sea peninsula, which Russia annexed in March 2014.
Thank you Putin: Russians from Crimea are denied Schengen visas

The citizens of the Russian Federation, who visited annexed Crimea, are denied Schengen visas.
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  #1459  
Old 23.06.2015, 21:55
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

I doubt this could be true as there is no way to track a visit to Crimea. Unless credit card processors share this data, but that doesn't seem "legal". Other means could be Google from Android phones and Apple, but hey, everybody would be crying foul.
Certainly Russian cellular operator don't share location data :-)
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  #1460  
Old 23.06.2015, 23:23
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Re: World War 3 or just a local spat in Ukraine?

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I doubt this could be true as there is no way to track a visit to Crimea. Unless credit card processors share this data, but that doesn't seem "legal". Other means could be Google from Android phones and Apple, but hey, everybody would be crying foul.
Certainly Russian cellular operator don't share location data :-)
I suppose the people who issue Schengen visas could include a question like "have you visited Crimea" and then applicants can decide to be honest or to lie - some questions in the US visa process are similar to this, for example, do you belong to a terrorist group ?
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