Conventional American boots on the ground to protect a non-NATO country? I just can‘t see it happening. Maybe some „advisors“ or „trainers“, but due to the risks of escalation, I just can‘t imagine the calculus coming down in favour of a conventional conflict between NATO/US and Russia. If it did, I can‘t see it ending quickly, except under the nightmare scenario, as neither side will want to show weakness and back down once committed.

I truly hope it is sabre rattling, but Putin has form for invading neighbours, not least Ukraine, under the pretext of defending ethnic Russians.

You really cannot claim this "would not be the long protracted debacle..." when the war around Donbas has been running since 2014.

I won't claim, but I'll still assume that if other external parties become involved the timeline of things would be accelerated.
Very possibly overly accelerated into MADness.

Read a book that had different scenarios for WWIII.
The one that stuck in my mind was between Russia and China, most of the fighting was between high-tech fighter bombers that both sides bought from America.
To enable high G maneuvers the planes were flown remotely by Indian contractors sitting in simulators in India.

Not sure how likely this is but it somehow struck a chord.

The most unlikely part of that scenario is both China and Russia wanting to buy arms from the USA, and the USA actually selling them. The rest sounds plausible in the not too distant future.

Biden said that the US would send more troops to Eastern Europe, and that there would be severe sanctions as a response, if Russia invades the Ukraine.

With that he essentially said that the US won't interfere with their own military. That makes any direct conflict between Russian and American troops basically impossible (you can always pretend they're mercenaries if you do have some western fighters in place).

If a country with 160mln people (Russia) attacks one with 40mln (Ukraine), it's can turn into a massive drain if the defenders get significant weaponry (Biden has just withdrawn US troops from a country where that ratio was much more against the defenders). From a strategic POV the US may actually be looking forward to see Russia invade, certainly the US would love to support the Ukraine with weapons and intelligence in such a case.

thank you USA!


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...ting-tensions/

Laughable. The same old Russian fairy tales.

Strategically Russia has almost nothing to gain from invading Ukraine, but I can still see them do it. The European response will be be very mild, particularly as Europe is running out of gas in the middle of winter if Russia so decides.

This wise statement also helped alot:



https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...raine-weakness

Really? Ukraine has lots of mineral resources and is the granary of Europe!


https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...arming-exports

Why do you think so? Their actions seem to indicate the opposite.

To me it looks like coming from someone who either ignores Russian history, or buys their propaganda.

The Americans have a long history of overestimating their military capabilities and underestimating that of their enemies. Also they don´t understand the long standing animosity between Russia and Ukraine. With American meddling this coming conflict could end in a deathmatch between the Russia and Ukraine and if you ask me I really wonder if Ukraine destroyed ALL the Soviet nukes stationed within the country back in the nineties.
That little thought on the side.
One thing Russia has made very clear, they won´t tolerate any kind of interference with the black sea bases and they won´t allow the Donbas region to fall under western influence, even if by proxy from Kiev.

__________________
Back in Bavaria, god´s own belly button.

Page not found....?

WTF?

Negative scenario for Russia: If they invade and get a proper fight by the Ukranians, it will cost them billions. Sanctions are going to cost them more. They will not be welcome and harvest decades of ember fires in UA, have a hard time doing business with the world, probably see massive capital flight and devaluation of the rouble. Long term they will drive the EU as their most important investor and energy buyer into the arms of the US, Arabs and renewables. I would argue they even will annoy China if the Chinese suspect similar attitudes regarding Central Asia. Of course the Chinese will also appreciate their two adversaries in conflict.

Positive: Getting a hard-on for reuniting the "motherland" and "owning the West"

All that said, I can see them doing this regardless.

American meddling? GTFO

Uhh! Nato expansion for one, then the sale of arms to Ukraine and Nato (read US) promises to defend Ukraine.
Scrapping of the intermediate range missiles...
The Americans have a long history or tweaking the bear´s tail so Russia has plenty of reason not to trust the west.

There is no option for UA to join NATO. Or is your argument that the Baltics joining NATO 20 years ago is reason to make UA a part of Russia?

Putin is a strategist. He will invade Ukraine and still get away with his actions. As he did in 2014 with Crimea, as he does every other month when the Russians enter Alliance airspace, etc. USA nor NATO will not do anything other than imposing economic sanctions.

Ukraine is a de-facto member after the government stated that a nato membership is a strategic policy. At least that is how the Americans see things, even if it wern´t then American ties to Ukraine will be seen as encroachment by Moskau.

Sanctions are a two sided weapon, what happens if Putin has his back to the wall and no other option other than to lash out?